研究报告 甲醇周报 基本面改善有限，甲醇或偏弱震荡 华龙期货投资咨询部 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 上周由于甲醇基本面改善有限，甲醇期货窄幅震荡整理，至 周五下午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2430 元/吨，较前一周上涨 0.04%。 【基本面】 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 11 日星期一 上周，国内甲醇装置检修多于复产，甲醇产量再次下降，并 且产能利用率创今年以来新低，甲醇供给端支撑有所增强。甲醇 下游需求延续总体平稳的态势。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产企 业库存下降，企业待发订单量上升，以上均反映甲醇基本面改善， 但是，上周港口甲醇库存继续上升，且升幅较大，仍对甲醇价格 形成压制。利润方面，上周甲醇企业利润多数下滑。综合来看， 上周甲醇供需未有明显好转，甲醇现货市场走势不一，内地震荡 走高，港口甲醇价格下跌。 【后市展望】 本周甲醇生产企 ...

01 月度评估及策略推荐 供需偏弱，港口加速累库 甲醇月报 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 2025/08/08 05 需求端 目录 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度总结 | 行情回顾 | 7月甲醇价格冲高回落，受国内反内卷政策影响短期内价格出现大幅上涨，期权波动率也随着大幅走高，随后在相关商品 情绪达到峰值后价格开始回落，甲醇开始回归自身偏弱的基本面，价格再度跌回启动之前的位置，总体来看，供需偏弱格 | | --- | --- | | | 局下价格上行空间有限。 | | | 供应  7月份国内产量841万吨，环比回落，同比高位，预计8月开工将见底回升。  | | |  海外装置开工逐步恢复到高位水平，后续进口逐步回升。 | | |  港口烯烃装置停车，负荷高位回落。 需求 | | | 传统需求在淡季背景下开工走低，整体利润水平低位。 | | 基本面 |  9-1价差在预期好转以及现实走弱下持续大幅走低。 | | |  ...

研究报告 甲醇周报 基本面改善有限，甲醇或偏弱震荡 华龙期货投资咨询部 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 4 日星期一 能化研究员：宋鹏 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 上周国内宏观面预期改善的影响逐步淡化，而甲醇基本面改 善有限，甲醇期货回落调整，至周五下午收盘，甲醇加权收于 2429 元/吨，较前一周下跌 4.41%。 【基本面】 上周，国内甲醇装置复产多于检修，甲醇产量上升，甲醇下 游需求总体平稳。库存方面，上周甲醇样本生产企业库存下降， 企业待发订单量下降。港口甲醇库存继续上升，且升幅较大。利 润方面，上周甲醇企业利润多数回暖。综合来看，上周甲醇供需 未有明显好转，甲醇现货市场走势不一，内地震荡走高，港口盘 整为主。 【后市展望】 （数据来源：博弈大师、隆众资讯） 上周国内宏观面预期改善的影响逐步淡化，而甲醇基本面改善有限，甲醇 期货回落调整，至周五下 ...

020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 期货研究报告|甲醇月报 2025-08-03 MTO 检修兑现，港口延续累库现实 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 杨露露 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 甲醇观点 ■ 市场要闻与重要数据 港口方面。7 月海外装置开工高位回落，伊朗 busher 短修、ZPC 降负，马油装置降负 检修，但总体开工水平仍偏高，海外供应压力仍大，8 月进口到港压力进一步上升。而 下游方面，兴兴 MTO 于 7 月底兑现检修 1 个月，港口延续累库现实。 内地方面。7 月进入煤头甲醇检修集中期，且 8 月仍有内蒙、陕西部分装置检修，8 月 下旬内地甲醇开工才逐步回升，内地供应仍偏紧。甲醛季节性淡季，但开工已底部回 升； ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for methanol is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 2521.00 CNY/ton and reaching a low of 2397.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a decline of 4.00% [1] - The methanol market is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors and production costs, with high domestic production and operating rates, as well as increased international methanol operating rates and imports [1] - The overall fundamentals of methanol do not show significant contradictions, suggesting a potential for a range-bound market [1] Group 2 - The coal mining capacity verification policy is pushing coal prices up, which in turn supports methanol prices, although the market remains cautious due to potential overheating [2] - The upward movement in methanol prices is limited by the restart of production facilities, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits [2] - There is a warning regarding potential discrepancies in expectations as the political bureau meeting approaches, advising caution for bullish positions and suggesting a wait-and-see approach for conservative investors [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and it is likely to oscillate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the methanol futures oscillated, with the weighted price closing at 2,392 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 0.79% decline from the previous week. The spot price of the port methanol market mostly declined, and the inland market oscillated weakly [6][12]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,909,928 tons, a decrease of 77,148 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a 3.89% drop from the previous week [13]. - **Downstream Demand**: Overall, it was stable. The overall start - up of the olefin industry slightly increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether remained flat; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides and formaldehyde decreased [16][17]. - **Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises increased by 0.46 million tons to 356,900 tons, a 1.31% increase; the order backlog decreased by 20,000 tons to 221,200 tons, an 8.29% decrease. The port sample inventory increased by 45,200 tons to 718,900 tons, a 6.71% increase [20][22]. - **Profit**: There was little change last week. Coal - based methanol profitability slightly increased, while coke - oven gas - based and natural - gas - based methanol performed poorly [24][25]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device restarts exceeds that of overhauls. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1.9193 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 85.17%, an increase from last week [28]. - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry's start - up is expected to rise slightly; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether will remain flat; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to decrease; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to increase [29]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of sample production enterprises is expected to be 334,600 tons, with a slight reduction. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly [30][31]. - **Overall**: Methanol demand remains weak, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and it is likely to oscillate in the short - term [32].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of methanol remain weak. After the geopolitical tension eases, methanol returns to its fundamentals and is likely to continue its weak trend in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [9][10][35]. Summary by Section 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fluctuated. By the Friday afternoon close, the weighted methanol price was 2,409 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous week. The spot price of methanol in the port market mostly declined, with the price in Jiangsu ranging from 2,450 - 2,840 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2,420 - 2,470 yuan/ton [14]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, China's methanol production was 1,987,076 tons, a decrease of 71,020 tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate was 88.18%, a 3.45% drop from the previous week. Overall, the loss of production due to maintenance and reduction was greater than the recovery, leading to a decline in capacity utilization [15]. 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products decreased. The average weekly operation rate of the olefin industry continued to decline, with the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 76.05%, a 4.08 - percentage - point drop from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde also decreased [17][19]. 2.3 Inventory - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons from the previous period, a 3.14% increase. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a 0.23% increase. The port sample inventory was 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a 0.48% increase [22][25]. 2.4 Profit - Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples weakened. The profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol production narrowed, while the loss of natural - gas - based production slightly increased [28]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, there are more methanol plant overhauls than restarts. It is expected that China's methanol production will be around 1.9162 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be around 85.03%, a decrease from last week [33]. 3.2 Downstream Demand - The olefin industry's开工率 will continue to decline. The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether and glacial acetic acid is expected to increase, while that of formaldehyde and chlorides is expected to decrease [34]. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 334,600 tons, a slight decrease from last week. The port inventory is expected to change little [34][35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol have not improved substantially, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures stopped falling and rebounded slightly. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price closed at 2,277 yuan/ton, up 2.48% from the previous week. In the spot market, the domestic methanol market showed different trends. The price of inland methanol was generally weak, while the coastal methanol market rebounded but had poor sales after the increase, and the basis declined [11] 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,985,884 tons, an increase of 19,529 tons from the previous week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 88.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. Overall, the number of resumed production was more than that of maintenance [12] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization**: As of June 5, 2025, the average weekly operating rate of the olefin industry increased; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether decreased; the capacity utilization rate of glacial acetic acid increased slightly; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides increased; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde increased slightly [16][18] - **Enterprise Inventory and Orders**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 370,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.38%; the orders to be delivered were 262,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%. Inventory and order trends varied by region [21] - **Port Inventory**: As of June 4, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample ports was 581,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.13%. Different regions had different inventory changes [27] - **Profit**: Last week, the overall profit of domestic methanol samples decreased. The average profit of Hebei coke oven gas was 88.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 49.57%; the average profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based was 12.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 83.44%; the average profit of Shandong coal - based was 40.45 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 63.94%; the average profit of southwest natural gas - based was - 195 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.42% [30] 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of methanol device resumptions is more than that of maintenance. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0164 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 89.47%, an increase from last week [34][35] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry will maintain a high - level operation; the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is expected to decline; the capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is expected to increase; the capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde is expected to change little; the capacity utilization rate of chlorides is expected to continue to decline [36] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 352,900 tons, a slight decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase [36] - **Recommendation**: The fundamentals of methanol are relatively stable, and it may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for now [37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol remain loose, and it continues to oscillate weakly. The coal mine operating rate in the raw coal aspect has declined slightly. As of June 5th, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos is 66%, and in Yulin it is 44%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin is around 3.8 million tons, with weak demand and a weak pithead price. On the supply side, the operating rate of coal mines in the main coal - producing areas in the northwest has declined, but demand is weak, raw coal prices are oscillating, the auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest have stopped falling and stabilized, the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 500 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, with continuous loose domestic supply. On the import side, the operating rate of international methanol plants has declined from a high level, the US dollar price has risen slightly, imports remain in a positive spread situation, some plants in Iran have restarted, the non - Iranian operating rate is stable, the external operating rate has increased from a high level, the European and American markets are differentiated, the Southeast Asian re - export window is closed, Iran has loaded 19 in June and has tendered again, non - Iranian transactions are good, and the import volume in June is expected to be 1.35 - 1.4 billion tons. On the demand side, the traditional downstream has entered the off - season with a declining operating rate, while the operating rate of MTO plants has increased. In the inventory aspect, imports are gradually recovering, demand is rigid, imports are in a positive spread situation, port inventories have bottomed out, and the basis is consolidating; inland enterprise inventories have begun to rise. Overall, the international plant operating rate has declined from a high level, some plants in Iran have had short - term shutdowns, the daily output has dropped from 38,000 tons to around 29,000 tons but is still at a high level. The loading volume in Iran in May was 820,000 tons, the import volume in May is expected to be over 1.2 million tons, and the import volume in June will increase significantly to over 1.3 million tons. Downstream demand is stable, ports have started to accumulate inventory as the arrival volume increases. At the same time, as domestic coal prices continue to fall, coal - to - methanol profits have expanded to the highest level in history, the scale of spring maintenance is less than expected, and domestic supply is loose. Currently, the phased external procurement of inland CTO has ended, inland enterprise inventories have bottomed out and started to accumulate, the tight supply situation has been alleviated to some extent, downstream resistance to high prices has led to continuous declines in inland auction prices. However, the MTO operating rate has increased, port demand has increased, bulk commodities are oscillating strongly, methanol will follow the upward trend in the short term, but a bearish view should be taken in the medium - to - long - term, and short - selling on dips is not recommended [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: The raw coal supply presents a situation of declining operating rate and weak demand, with prices oscillating. The domestic methanol supply is loose, with high - level stable operating rates and expanding coal - to - methanol profits. The import situation shows a decline in the international operating rate, a slight increase in prices, and an expected increase in import volume. The demand side has a differentiated situation between traditional downstream and MTO. Inventory is accumulating at ports and inland enterprises. Overall, methanol is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term but be bearish in the medium - to - long - term [5]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, focus on short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [5]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of June 5th, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load is 74.52%, a 0.19 - percentage - point decline from last week and a 5.09 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year; the operating load in the northwest region is 80.85%, a 0.09 - percentage - point decline from last week and a 5.73 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The national methanol operating load has slightly declined due to the decline in the operating loads in North and Southwest China. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol in China is 70.82%, a 0.07 - percentage - point increase from last week [6]. - **Supply - International**: The international (ex - China) methanol production in this cycle is 961,053 tons, a decrease of 7,200 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate is 65.88%, a 0.49% decline from last week. In the cycle, Iran's ZPC had a temporary shutdown, Kimiya is reported to have restarted today, Apadana is operating at a low load; the North American operating rate has declined; the Egyptian plant has returned to normal operation [6]. - **Supply - Import**: As of 14:00 on June 4th, 2025, when the port inventory data was released, the sample arrival volume of methanol in China in the cycle is 332,900 tons; among them, foreign vessels accounted for 313,500 tons (263,500 tons were visible and 50,000 tons were invisible, with 131,500 tons visible in Jiangsu); domestic vessels supplemented 19,400 tons in the cycle, including 10,500 tons in Jiangsu and 8,900 tons in Guangdong [6]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of June 5th, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 85.15%, a 0.54% increase from last week. Although a plant in Jiangsu slightly reduced its load this week, a plant in Jiangsu gradually increased its load last week, resulting in a slight increase in the overall weekly average capacity utilization rate compared to last week. The national olefin plant operating rate is 86.88%, with the restart of Ningxia Baofeng's second - phase plant and the increase in the load of Shandong Hengtong's plant [6]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 9.52%. During the week, Jiujiang Xinlianxin and Xinxiang Xinlianxin's plants stopped operating, and other plants mostly maintained their previous loads, resulting in a lower overall capacity utilization rate this week. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 77.87%. During this period, Sopu's plant is increasing its load but has not reached full production; Celanese and Longyu's plants are under maintenance; Hubei Qianxin and Jiantao's second - phase plants continue to increase their loads, resulting in a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The formaldehyde operating rate is 51.11%. During the week, Jinyimeng's plant increased its load and is operating normally, and Wende Cheng's plant decreased its load and is operating normally [6]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: In the week of June 3rd, 2025, the weekly signing volume of the sample methanol production enterprises in the northwest region is 61,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous statistical date, a year - on - year decrease of 6.15% [6]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises is 370,500 tons, an increase of 15,500 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 4.38%; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 262,200 tons, an increase of 12,300 tons from the previous period [6]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of June 4th, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China is 581,200 tons, an increase of 58,200 tons. Among them, the inventory in East China has increased by 51,300 tons; the inventory in South China has increased by 6,900 tons [6]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the price of chemical coal in the northwest region has declined again, and the methanol price has fallen. The profit of coal - to - methanol in the Inner Mongolia region is around 620 yuan/ton, and in the northern Shaanxi region it is 560 yuan/ton. In terms of spreads, the port - to - northern line spread is 430 yuan/ton, and the port - to - northern Shandong spread is 170 yuan/ton. MTO losses are stable; the basis is temporarily stable [6]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang is 2,310 yuan (+90), and the price in the northern line is 1,880 yuan (+10) [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market outlook for methanol has not improved, and it may continue to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [8][9][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the domestic methanol market continued to have an oversupply situation. The methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol price was 2,222 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58% from the previous week [6][11]. - In the spot market, the domestic methanol market continued its downward trend. The decline in the inland market was greater than that in the coastal market, and the arbitrage space from the inland to the coastal market reopened. As of May 29, the methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,255 yuan/ton, down 3.38%; in Guangdong, it was 2,285 yuan/ton, down 3.01%; in Ordos North Line, it was 1,931 yuan/ton, down 6.67%; and in Shandong Jining, it was 2,152 yuan/ton, down 5.36% [11]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, the methanol production in China increased slightly. The production was 1,966,685 tons, an increase of 5,090 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.19%, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. The 100,000 - ton natural gas - to - methanol plant of Daqing Refining and Chemical was put into operation, and there were no new maintenance plants [12]. - **Downstream Demand**: - The MTO capacity utilization rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased significantly. As of May 29, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 84.61%, an increase of 15.83 percentage points from the previous week [17]. - The capacity utilization rates of other downstream products such as dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde showed different trends [17][19]. - **Inventory**: - As of May 28, 2025, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 355,000 tons, an increase of 18,900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.64%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 249,900 tons, an increase of 14,700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.24% [22]. - The port sample inventory of methanol continued to rise. As of May 28, 2025, the port sample inventory was 523,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.65% [27]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average profit of domestic methanol samples decreased overall. The average profit of different production methods such as Hebei coke oven gas, Inner Mongolia coal - to - methanol, and Shandong coal - to - methanol all declined [30]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the resumption of methanol plants is more than the maintenance, and the production is expected to be about 2,027,700 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 89.90%, an increase from last week [34]. - **Demand**: The olefin enterprises in Shandong and the Northwest regions may increase their loads, and the overall downstream demand is expected to be stable to positive [8][37]. - **Inventory**: - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 359,800 tons, a slight increase from last week [38]. - The port inventory is expected to continue to rise due to sufficient expected arrivals of foreign vessels and possible impacts on truck pick - up during the holiday [38]. In conclusion, the market outlook for methanol remains weak, and it may continue to oscillate weakly [39].