瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.07.25」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 4、期权市场分析 4 「 周度要点小结」 策略建议： MA2509合约短线预计在2460-2550区间波动。 3 行情回顾：本周国内港口甲醇市场略偏强，其中江苏价格波动区间在2370-2480元/吨，广东价格 波动在2370-2450元/吨。内地甲醇市场上涨为主，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在2085- 2100元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2255-2285元/吨。宏观利好持续发酵，加之产区库存 低位，部分装置装修叠加烯烃仍有外采需求，导致价格持续走强。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于检修、减产涉及产能损失量，整体产量小幅增 加。本周受宏观政策利好提振，市场交投氛围较好，内地企业出货顺畅，带动企业待发订单小幅 增加，企业库存明显下降。本周港口卸货速度大幅不及预期，而提货及消费情况淡稳，甲醇港口 库存计划外去库，下周外轮抵港量或大幅回升 ...

甲醇产业日报 2025-07-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2457 | 46 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -79 | -8 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 660678 | 10223 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -111147 | 4086 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 10344 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2390 | 0 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1985 | 2.5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 405 | 12.5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -67 | -46 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 275 | 2 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 330 | 0 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 223 | 1 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -55 | ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2411 | 46 甲醇9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -71 | -2 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 650455 | -19282 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -115233 | 28083 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 10344 | 1800 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2390 | 15 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1985 | 2.5 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 405 | 12.5 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -21 | -31 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 273 | -2 CFR东南亚(日,美元/吨) | 330 | -3 | | | FOB鹿特丹(日,欧元/吨) | 222 | -14 中国主港-东南亚价差(日,美元/吨) | -57 | 1 | | 上游 ...

2025年7月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 港口继续累库，甲醇弱势运行 大宗商品研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 GALAXY FUTURES 2 观点：原料煤方面，煤矿开工率窄幅下滑，截止7月18日，鄂市煤矿开工率69%，榆林地区煤矿开工率46%，部分煤矿停产，鄂尔多 斯地区煤矿开工率与榆林地区开工率下滑，当前鄂市与榆林地区煤炭日均产量370万吨附近，需求持续疲软，坑口价弱势运行。供应端， 供应端，当前西北煤炭主产地煤矿开工率回落，但需求偏弱，原料煤价格震荡，西北主流甲醇企业竞拍价格坚挺，煤制甲醇利润在700 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽松。进口端，国际甲醇装置开工率持续攀升，美金价格小幅下跌，进口小幅倒挂， 伊朗装置除fpc全部正常，非伊开工小幅提升，外盘开工反弹至年内新高，欧美市场小幅下跌，中欧价差低位收缩，东南亚转口窗口关 闭，伊朗7月已装37万吨，伊朗降价招标，部分印度货源流向中国，美金商逢高出货，太仓到货增加，累库加速。需求端，传统下游进 入淡季，开工率回落，MTO装置开工率回升，兴兴69万吨/年MTO装置开工不满；南京 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （7.14 -7.18 ） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：预计短期国内甲醇市场维持震荡行情概率大。港口市场方面，据悉近期进口到货稳健，且内 地货源持续补充，叠加部分原计划流入下游货量转港至社会库，短期库存仍存累积风险，供需面预期相对宽 松，而关税及原油等方面消息或持续影响期货走势，预计短期多空博弈下，港口市场或延续区间震荡，需持 续关注进口到货情况。内地传统高温淡季需求弱化明显，以及多数下游产品当前是亏损状态，不利于成本传 导，另外运力紧张影响，贸易商也多谨慎采购。但同时因西北CTO工厂甲醇持续外采，叠加产区如兖矿榆 林、西来峰以及神木等多套装置集中检修，内地供应端有一定支撑。基本面并无突出矛盾下，业者对 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「 2025.07.18」 甲醇市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 行情回顾：本周国内港口甲醇市场窄幅震荡整理，其中江苏价格波动区间在2350-2400元/吨，广 东价格波动在2380-2410元/吨。内地甲醇市场区域分化，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在 1973-1990元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2245-2250元/吨。关中一带需求疲软导致下游 采购积极性不佳，整体价格偏弱震荡。 行情展望：近期国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失量多于恢复涉及产能产出量，整体产量小幅减 少。本周内地企业库存表现差异，部分企业受下游需求偏弱影响，贸易提货积极性一般，导致库 存继续累库，但部分烯烃装置恢复后前期积攒的甲醇库存逐步消耗，使得整体库存呈下跌趋势。 本周外轮卸货顺利，甲醇港口库存继续累库，其中江苏沿江主流社会库提货维持一般，下游需求 表现延续平淡，集中卸货下，江苏库存明显积累；华南港口进口及内贸船只均有到货，下游需求 一般，港口库存窄幅累库。需求方面，中石化中原、中煤蒙大、 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - Yesterday, methanol prices in multiple regions saw a slight increase. In the northwest main production area, enterprise inventories were at a low level, and the willingness of downstream and traders to replenish at low prices increased, leading to higher auction transaction prices. The positive sentiment in the futures market drove smooth new - order transactions in the afternoon, with some enterprises suspending sales and holding prices, pushing up the spot prices. Downstream buyers are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, and after replenishing at low prices earlier, their purchases have become more rational. The market trend depends on the downstream procurement transactions on Tuesday [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production increased from 268,235.00 to 269,435.00, an increase of 1,200.00. The domestic operating rate rose from 83.04 to 83.41, an increase of 0.37, while the international operating rate remained unchanged at 72.33 [1]. Import - The arrival weight remained unchanged at 31.03 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 356,900.00 and 718,900.00 respectively [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained unchanged at 221,240.00. The operating rates of various downstream products remained mostly unchanged, with only the MTBE price rising from 5,000.00 to 5,050.00, an increase of 50.00 [1]. Associated Product Prices - Most associated product prices remained unchanged, with only the MTBE price increasing by 50.00 [1].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-17甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 近期多空分析 利多： 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 2.伊朗甲醇开工降低；港口库存处于低位。 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口市场方面，红海紧张局势加剧，宏观方面或存一定支撑，不过随着外盘装置恢复，后续基本面或逐步 回归供需偏宽松格局，短期港口甲醇市场多空因素交织，或将维持区间震荡格局，需持续关注烯烃企业消息。内地方 面，多数下游盈利水平较差甚至是亏损销售，尤其是当前高温需求淡季部分终端停车或者降负，但西北主要CTO工厂原 料甲醇缺口放大，以及内地部分货源可流通至港口，且近期产区甲醇装置集中停车，供应端仍有一定支撑。综合来看 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-16甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口市场方面，红海紧张局势加剧，宏观方面或存一定支撑，不过随着外盘装置恢复，后续基本面或逐步 回归供需偏宽松格局，短期港口甲醇市场多空因素交织，或将维持区间震荡格局，需持续关注烯烃企业消息。内地方面， 多数下游盈利水平较差甚至是亏损销售，尤其是当前高温需求淡季部分终端停车或者降负，但西北主要CTO工厂原料甲 醇缺口放大，以及内地部分货源可流通至港口，且近期产区甲醇装置集中停车，供应端仍有一定支撑。综合来看，供需 两弱的背景下预计本周内地甲醇价格调整空间不大。继续重点关注烯烃工厂是否有外采动作；中性 2、基差： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the port methanol market has intertwined long and short factors and is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Inland methanol prices are expected to have limited adjustment space under the background of weak supply and demand. It is expected that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week, with MA2509 running in the range of 2350 - 2420 [4]. Summary According to the Catalog 1. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In the port market, the tense situation in the Red Sea may provide some macro - level support. However, with the recovery of overseas plants, the fundamentals may gradually return to a supply - demand pattern of relative looseness. In the inland market, most downstream industries have poor profitability or are selling at a loss. But the raw material methanol gap of major CTO plants in the northwest has widened, and some inland supplies can flow to the ports. Also, recent concentrated shutdowns of methanol plants in the production areas provide some support to the supply side. Overall, the adjustment space of inland methanol prices is expected to be limited this week [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, with a basis of 30 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 56.76 tons, an increase of 6.79 tons from the previous period. The overall available and tradable methanol supply in the coastal areas increased by 3.65 tons to 31.29 tons [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [4]. - **Expectation**: Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with MA2509 running in the range of 2350 - 2420 [4]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Long Factors**: Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased; the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and the 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant of Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in the second half of this month; major CTO plants in the northwest have an increased demand for raw material methanol [6]. - **Short Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated arrivals of ships at the ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde market has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some plants in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: Various prices of methanol in the spot and futures markets are provided, including the spot price in different regions (such as Jiangsu, Shandong, Hebei, etc.), the futures closing price, and the price changes of related products. For example, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2410 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price is 2396 yuan/ton [4][8]. - **Inventory Data**: As of July 10, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports was 56.76 tons, and the available and tradable supply in the coastal areas increased by 3.65 tons to 31.29 tons [4]. - **Operating Rate Data**: The operating rates in different regions (such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest) and the national weighted average operating rate are provided, showing a downward trend in most regions [8]. - **Profit Data**: The production profits of different methanol production processes (coal - based, natural - gas - based, and coke - oven - gas - based) are provided, with different profit trends for each process [21]. - **Downstream Product Data**: The prices, production profits, and operating rates of traditional downstream products (formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid) and MTO products are provided, showing different trends for each product [31][34][46]. 4. Maintenance Conditions - **Domestic Plants**: Multiple domestic methanol plants in different regions (Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast) are in various maintenance states, including planned and unplanned shutdowns, temporary shutdowns due to failures, and production capacity reductions [56]. - **Overseas Plants**: Overseas methanol plants, mainly in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, and the United States, have different operating conditions, including normal operation, restarting, and low - level operation [57]. - **Olefin Plants**: Olefin plants in different regions (Northwest, East China, Central China, Shandong, and Northeast) have different operating conditions, including normal operation, shutdown for maintenance, and low - load operation [58].