1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is bullish, but the black - series is still in a bottom - range oscillation phase and is sensitive to marginal news. Traders need to be vigilant against rumor disturbances and strengthen information screening. In the short term, the macro - level is in a policy window period, and attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policy and its impact on the steel industry's supply - demand pattern [3]. - The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term shocks and high volatility from previous "sentiment leaders" such as silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate. For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market will be influenced by the direction of the black sector and cost - push and supply - contraction factors [10][11]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, the demand side is weak, and the supply - demand situation is loose with inventory accumulation pressure. The price increase in the industrial chain has an emotional support for raw material prices, and the market should pay attention to terminal demand feedback and trading liquidity [14][16]. - For glass and soda ash, glass prices are rising due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. Soda ash is strongly affected by market sentiment, and the market is in a game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, with high volatility [19][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3187 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton (2.442%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 56,844 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract's open interest was 1.7414 million lots, up 178,435 lots. The spot rebar price in Tianjin was 3180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3320 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3332 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton (2.114%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 103,995 tons, down 593 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.3779 million lots, up 103,802 lots. The spot hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3300 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy View - The price of finished products has risen significantly driven by the strong raw material prices. The supply - demand contradiction of hot - rolled coils has been marginally alleviated, while the rebar inventory continues to decline. The winter storage participation is still cautious, and it is difficult to form a concentrated replenishment market. The black - series is in a bottom - range oscillation and is sensitive to news [3]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 828.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +3.37% (+27.00), and the open interest increased by 25,713 lots to 666,600 lots. The weighted open interest was 999,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 832 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 56.85 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.42% [4]. Strategy View - The price of iron ore continued to rise. The overseas iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals increased. The daily hot - metal output rebounded slightly, and the steel mills' profitability improved. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory was still at a low level in the same period of the past five years, with some replenishment demand [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 7, the main manganese silicon contract (SM603) rose 1.39% to close at 6000 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 60 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF603) rose 1.45% to close at 5860 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy View - The market's bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term shocks. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still loose, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market will be affected by the black sector's direction and cost - push and supply - contraction factors. Attention should be paid to the manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policy [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2605) closed at 8980 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.90% (+80). The weighted contract's open interest increased by 18,796 lots to 379,966 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 220 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 130 yuan/ton [13]. - The main polysilicon contract (PS2605) closed at 58,300 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.79% (- 1065). The weighted contract's open interest decreased by 8838 lots to 116,672 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 52.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 53.5 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of - 4800 yuan/ton [15]. Strategy View - The price of industrial silicon is affected by market sentiment, but its own supply - demand is weak, and inventory accumulation may continue. The demand for polysilicon is weak, and the supply - demand is loose with inventory accumulation pressure. The price increase in the industrial chain has an emotional support for raw material prices, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and trading liquidity [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Quotes - The glass main contract closed at 1148 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 5.13% (+56). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1010 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1060 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 56.866 million cases, down 1.757 million cases (- 3.00%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 566 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 633 lots [18]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1271 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 6.81% (+81). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1231 yuan, up 81 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4083 million tons, down 30,200 tons (- 3.00%), including 676,100 tons of heavy soda ash, down 26,900 tons, and 732,200 tons of light soda ash, down 3300 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 7939 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 32,712 lots [20]. Strategy View - Glass prices are rising due to cost support and supply contraction expectations, but the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price increase space is limited. Soda ash is strongly affected by market sentiment, and the market is in a game between weak fundamentals and external positive factors, with high volatility [19][22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that coking coal and coke futures have experienced significant price increases, with multiple contracts reaching their daily limit, indicating strong market demand and bullish sentiment in the coal sector [1][3][6] - The A-share coal sector saw substantial gains, with companies like Dayou Energy and Shanxi Coking Coal hitting their daily price limits, reflecting investor confidence in the coal market [1] - Coking coal futures main contracts surged by 8%, reaching a new high since November of the previous year, while coke futures also saw notable increases, with main contracts rising by 3.52% [3] Group 2 - A report indicated that the Yulin city government in Shaanxi province announced a reduction in coal production capacity by 1.9 million tons due to insufficient supply guarantees for electricity coal, affecting 26 out of 52 coal mines [4] - Despite the reduction in production capacity, industry insiders believe the actual market impact will be limited, as the reduced capacity represents only 3% of Yulin's projected coal output for 2025 [5] - The market is currently sensitive to positive news, which has overshadowed negative fundamental factors, leading to increased speculation about coal production and supply [5][6] Group 3 - Analysts noted that the recent price increases in black commodities, including coking coal, are driven by improved macroeconomic expectations and a recovery in steel mill profits, leading to increased raw material inventory replenishment [6][7] - The current inventory levels for steel mills and coking plants indicate that there is still room for replenishment, with iron ore and coking coal inventory days at 31.88 and 12.75 days, respectively [7] - The first quarter is typically a supply off-season, which may lead to a temporary supply-demand mismatch, potentially supporting prices in the short to medium term [7][8]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the coal industry, specifically regarding the supply of raw coal in the first quarter of 2026 and its implications for investment opportunities. Key Points and Arguments - Since 2021, to ensure the supply of electricity coal, there has been an increase in raw coal production in four out of the last five years during the first quarter, contrasting with a decline during the supply-side reform period from 2016 to 2020 [1][3] - In Q1 2021, an unexpected increase in production was driven by a cold winter and heightened domestic and international demand, leading major production areas to increase load and work multiple shifts to meet demand [1][3] - The implementation of overproduction checks in July 2025 and the central economic work conference's emphasis on stabilizing prices and addressing excessive competition suggest that the elasticity of raw coal supply will be limited in Q1 2026, with a modest year-on-year increase expected [1][4] - Data from CCTD indicates that capacity utilization rates in January are typically lower than in December, suggesting that Q4 is usually the peak of the year, making it difficult to maintain high levels into Q1 [1][5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - **Growth and Defensive Stocks**: Yanzhou Coal Mining, Lu'an Chemical, and Electric Power Investment, which are expected to have reasonable valuations and high dividends even at coal prices between 700-750 RMB/ton [1][6] - **Stable Dividend Stocks**: China Coal, Shanxi Coal, and Shenhua, which are seeing gradual improvements in dividend value [1][6] - If demand exceeds expectations, low-valuation stocks with limited shares and low profit margins such as Huayang, Jinkong, Lu'an, and Pingmei are also worth considering, especially in a low-price off-season with anticipated supply-demand improvements [2][6] Additional Important Insights - The policy environment is identified as a critical factor influencing the year-on-year changes in raw coal production, rather than seasonal patterns [3][4] - The potential for unexpected demand surges remains a consideration, as seen in previous years, but current policies are expected to constrain supply growth [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Daqin Railway is expected to complete a coal transportation volume of 516 million tons this year, significantly contributing to the country's electricity coal supply during the winter season [1] Group 1: Transportation Capacity and Efficiency - The Daqin Railway accounts for over 20% of national coal transportation, establishing itself as a primary channel for electricity coal supply in China [1] - Since November, the daily coal transportation volume on non-"window" days has maintained a dynamic level of 1.3 million tons, ensuring adequate supply for winter and spring electricity demand [1] - The railway has a normalized transportation capacity of 450 million tons per year, playing a crucial role in ensuring national energy security and supporting economic and social development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the critical role of coal supply during the winter season, emphasizing the importance of coal transportation for electricity generation in China [1] Group 1: Coal Transportation - The Daqin Railway, which accounts for over 20% of national coal transportation, is projected to complete a coal transport volume of 516 million tons this year, establishing itself as a primary channel for electricity coal supply in China [1] - The efficiency of coal transportation has significantly improved, contributing to better supply management during the cold wave [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 24, the JM2601 contract closed at 1096.5, down 1.48%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1550, equivalent to 1330 on the futures market. The macro - situation: the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring coal supply for power generation in 2026, weakening the market's expectations. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines has rebounded for two consecutive weeks, and the coking coal inventory of coal washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks. The inventory is at a moderate level, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. - On November 24, the J2601 contract closed at 1632.5, up 0.03%. The fourth round of price increase for coke has been implemented in the spot market. Macro: in October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current pig iron output is 236.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.60 million tons, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in the country is 19 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1096.50, down 6.50; J main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 1632.50, up 18.00 [2]. - JM futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 859403.00, up 17120.00; J futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 49177.00, down 782.00 [2]. - Net open interest of the top 20 JM contracts (daily, lots): - 106865.00, up 6957.00; net open interest of the top 20 J contracts (daily, lots): - 1532.00, up 150.00 [2]. - JM May - January contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 83.00, down 2.50; J May - January contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 149.50, down 14.00 [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts (daily, pieces): 0.00, unchanged; coke warehouse receipts (daily, pieces): 2070.00, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (daily, yuan/ton): 1000.00, unchanged; Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1885.00, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR, US dollars/wet ton): 162.50, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1670.00, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal (daily, yuan/ton): 1570.00, unchanged; Tianjin Port Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1770.00, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1780.00, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1670.00, unchanged [2]. - Medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi (daily, yuan/ton): 1610.00, unchanged; J main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): 252.50, down 18.00 [2]. - Coking coal ex - factory price in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia: 1380.00, down 20.00; JM main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): 513.50, up 6.50 [2]. Upstream Situation - The coking coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants (daily, million tons): 27.60, up 0.20; the coking coal inventory of 314 independent coal washing plants (weekly, million tons): 302.80, up 2.00 [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants (weekly, %): 0.38, unchanged; raw coal output (monthly, million tons): 40675.00, down 475.50 [2]. - Coal and lignite imports (monthly, million tons): 4174.00, down 426.00; average daily raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines: 193.40, up 1.50 [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly, million tons): 456.90, down 31.30; coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly, million tons): 253.40, down 6.10 [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises (weekly, million tons): 1038.19, down 30.78; total coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises (weekly, million tons): 65.29, up 7.14 [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly, million tons): 797.08, up 6.91; coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills nationwide (weekly, million tons): 622.34, down 0.06 [2]. - Available days of coking coal for all - sample independent coking enterprises (weekly, days): 12.97, up 0.10; available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills (weekly, days): 11.05, down 0.01 [2]. Industry Situation - Coking coal imports (monthly, million tons): 1059.32, down 33.04; coke and semi - coke exports (monthly, million tons): 73.00, up 19.00 [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly, million tons): 3975.92, up 279.06; capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly, %): 71.71, up 0.07 [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly, yuan/ton): 19.00, up 53.00 [2]. - Coke output (monthly, million tons): 4189.60, down 66.00 [2]. Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly, %): 82.17, down 0.62; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %): 88.56, down 0.26 [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly, million tons): 7199.70, down 149.31 [2]. Industry News - Foreign institutions generally predict that China's economy will maintain steady growth with policy support in 2026. Morgan Stanley believes that China's economy will have moderate growth in 2026 under moderate easing policies, gradual re - balancing and restrained "anti - involution" measures. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth rate and real GDP growth rate [2]. - In October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [2]. - In October, the total social electricity consumption was 857.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, the first single - month increase of more than 10% this year [2]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development held a national urban renewal work promotion meeting, emphasizing efforts in planning, funds, operation, and governance to promote urban renewal [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [40]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the supply of coal is tightening, with expectations for coal prices to rise after adjustments due to seasonal demand and regulatory pressures [3][5]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal prices, which have shown stability with slight increases in certain categories, particularly thermal coal [10][14]. - The report suggests that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rebound during the winter heating season, which will likely support price increases [3][10]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for long-term coal supply contracts for 2026, emphasizing the need for power companies to secure contracts based on actual coal demand [9]. - A new joint venture in Xinjiang aims to focus on green development in the coal chemical sector, indicating a shift towards sustainable practices [5][9]. Price Trends - As of November 21, thermal coal prices at major production sites have remained stable, with slight increases noted in specific regions [10][11]. - The report indicates that international coal prices have also shown stability, with some fluctuations depending on the region [11][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes an increase in daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports, while outflow has decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [22]. - Coal inventories at major ports have risen, suggesting a potential buildup ahead of increased winter demand [22]. Shipping Costs - Domestic shipping costs have decreased, while international shipping rates have seen slight increases, reflecting varying market conditions [30]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections, indicating a range of investment opportunities [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 20, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1113.5, down 3.17%. The spot price of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1550, equivalent to 1330 on the futures market. The macro - situation shows that the NDRC issued a notice on ensuring the supply of thermal coal in 2026, weakening the market expectation. Fundamentally, the capacity utilization rate of mines has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants has increased for three consecutive weeks. The total inventory has a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. - On November 20, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1633.5, down 0.70%. The fourth round of price increase for coke in the spot market has been implemented. In the macro - aspect, China's crude steel output in October was 7199.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; the cumulative crude steel output from January to October was 81787.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the current pig iron output is 236.88 million tons, an increase of 2.66 million tons, and the total coke inventory is relatively high compared to the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 34 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1113.50 yuan/ton, down 26.00; the closing price of the J main contract was 1633.50 yuan/ton, down 5.50. The JM futures contract position was 912017.00 hands, down 2263.00; the J futures contract position was 49628.00 hands, up 601.00. The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was - 113822.00 hands, up 14420.00; the net position of the top 20 J contracts was - 1682.00 hands, up 469.00. The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 69.00 yuan/ton, down 2.00; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 150.00 yuan/ton, down 6.50. The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, down 300.00; the coke warehouse receipts were - 12.00 [2]. Spot Market - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 162.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1670.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal was 1580.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal was 1780.00 yuan/ton, down 80.00; the price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The JM main contract basis was 496.50 yuan/ton, up 26.00; the J main contract basis was 251.50 yuan/ton, up 5.50 [2]. Upstream Situation - The clean coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.60 million tons, up 0.20; the clean coal inventory was 302.80 million tons, up 2.00. The capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, unchanged. The monthly raw coal output was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50; the monthly coal and lignite import volume was 4174.00 million tons, down 426.00. The daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 193.40 million tons, up 1.50. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 488.20 million tons, down 39.18; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 259.50 million tons, down 3.01. The total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 1068.97 million tons, down 1.05; the coke inventory was 58.15 million tons, down 0.15. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide was 790.17 million tons, up 2.87; the coke inventory was 622.40 million tons, down 4.24. The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.87 days, up 0.03; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills were 11.06 days, down 0.01 [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00. The monthly coking coal output was 3975.92 million tons, up 279.06. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 71.64%, down 0.67. The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 34.00 yuan/ton, down 12.00. The monthly coke output was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 82.79%, down 0.36; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.82%, up 1.03. The monthly crude steel output was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Daqin Railway is operating at a high capacity to ensure coal supply for winter heating and production needs in China, with daily coal transport exceeding 1.2 million tons [1][3]. Group 1: Operational Efficiency - The Daqin Railway, a key channel for coal transportation from the west to the east of China, is responsible for transporting coal for over 300 major power plants and 6,000 industrial enterprises, accounting for 20% of the national railway coal transport volume [3]. - The railway has optimized its operations by implementing targeted supply guarantee plans based on real-time communication with coal producers and power plants, ensuring a coal train departs every 13 minutes [3][5]. - The average turnaround time for coal transport has been reduced to 2.51 days, a decrease of 0.18 days year-on-year, enhancing the efficiency of train operations [3][5]. Group 2: Coal Transport Volume - As of November, the Daqin Railway has transported a total of 21.166 million tons of coal, with an average daily dispatch of 1.245 million tons, reflecting an increase of 239,000 tons compared to the previous period [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market expectation has increased this week due to multiple factors including the completion of the autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, relevant government notices, the Fed's interest rate cut, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting [7]. - The supply - demand of silicon ferroalloy is in a weak balance, with inventory at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke prices are stable, providing short - term cost support. However, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia is in a loss state [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - It is expected that from November to December, the output of silicon ferroalloy will decline compared with the same period. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and the profit of coke is difficult to improve significantly. The alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. The silicon ferroalloy is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: On October 25, the autumn maintenance of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway was completed. On the 28th, the "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions were released, and on the 29th, relevant government notices were issued. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Profit**: Supply - demand is in a weak balance, inventory is at a neutral level. Lanthanum coke prices are stable, providing short - term cost support. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 380 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 360 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the silicon ferroalloy main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend on the weekly chart [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Considering the market and winter equipment maintenance, the planned production of a Gansu enterprise in October is postponed to next year. It is expected that the output from November to December will decline compared with the same period. The national policy of reducing crude steel production will continue, and the silicon ferroalloy is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of October 31, the position of silicon ferroalloy futures contracts was 318,600 lots, a decrease of 41,000 lots compared with the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract monthly spread was 66, a decrease of 4 points compared with the previous period. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 4,471, a decrease of 6,692 compared with the previous period. The price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was 5,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [13][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 31, the basis of silicon ferroalloy was - 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 points compared with the previous period [25]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: The national average daily output of 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 16,170 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared with the previous week. The weekly demand for silicon ferroalloy in five major steel types was 20,275.3 tons, an increase of 1.70% compared with the previous week. The national silicon ferroalloy output (weekly supply) was 113,200 tons. The inventory of 60 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises was 71,990 tons, an increase of 5,430 tons compared with the previous week [28][34]. - **Upstream Situation**: As of October 27, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon manganese and silicon ferroalloy remained unchanged. As of October 30, the prices of lanthanum coke in Inner Mongolia and Shenmu remained unchanged. The spot production cost of silicon ferroalloy in Inner Mongolia was 5,682 yuan/ton, a 1.18% increase, and in Ningxia was 5,579 yuan/ton, a 1.20% increase. The spot profit in Ningxia was - 409 yuan/ton, unchanged [38][42]. - **Downstream Situation**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,400 tons compared with the previous week. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export of silicon ferroalloy with a silicon content greater than 55% was 292,900 tons, a decrease of 22,900 tons compared with the same period last year, a 7.25% year - on - year decrease [46].