文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘整体下跌，截止到收盘，还在4.1星。 大中小盘股都下跌。 成长风格下跌较多。 昨天创业板指数摸到高估，今天创业板指下跌超4%。 科创50指数下跌4.7%。 逐渐从低估爬起来了。 港股也出现下跌。 港股科技等成长风格下跌较多。 A股港股还是经常出现风格轮动。 成长风格弹性大，上涨下跌会更猛烈； 价值风格弹性小一些，遇到回调的时候波动也小。 盈亏同源。 不过市场还是风格轮动的。 成长风格大跌，价值风格就比较坚挺。 红利、价值、自由现金流等指数普遍上涨。 自由现金流最近比较坚挺，连续5个交易日上涨。 1. 最近港股医药类指数波动比较大。 9日恒生医疗保健指数下跌4.9%。其他港股医药类指数也出现波动。 也有朋友问港股医药类指数目前回到低估了么？ 2. 港股医药类指数也是很庞大的一类品种。 不过在指数命名规则上，跟内地有区别。 A股的医药，是一个一级行业。 对应医药的指数，主要是中证医药（投资沪深300、中证500的医药股），全指医药（全部医药指数），医药100（医药的头部100家）。 在医药指数下，还有医疗、生物科技、创新药三个主要的子行业。 港股的医药指数，全称是恒 ...

面对政府停摆导致的经济数据发布中断，投资者将在未来一周把目光转向大型银行的季度财报，以此评 估美国经济健康状况。 摩根大通、高盛等主要银行将率先公布第三季度业绩，为市场提供经济前景的重要线索。 标普500指数在经历震荡后仍维持在历史高位附近，今年以来累计上涨超过14%，其牛市行情即将迎来 三周年。在美股估值处于五年来最高水平、投资者对科技和人工智能板块热情高涨的背景下，强劲的第 三季度财报季对维持股市上涨势头至关重要。 分析师预计，标普500成分股公司第三季度整体盈利同比增长8.8%。近期疲软的就业数据引发了对经济 增长的担忧，并促使美联储重启降息周期。 银行财报成经济晴雨表 摩根大通将于下周二率先发布财报，拉开财报季序幕。高盛、富国银行和花旗集团同日公布业绩，美国 银行和摩根士丹利则定于下周三发布。 银行是美国经济的一扇窗户，如果我们看到消费者仍在支出，贷款需求正在改善，那么我会 开始认为我们或许并没有真正走向收缩。 BCA Research首席美股策略师Irene Tunkel表示： 很多看涨情绪都建立在预期盈利增长基础上。如果我们开始看到裂缝，这对整体市场来说将 不是好事。 政府停摆影响数据发布 自10 ...

该信息由智通财经网提供 鉴于瑞银看涨的黄金价格展望，及紫金黄金国际的营运指标，瑞银预计公司盈利从2025年的13亿美元， 增长至2027年的22亿美元，隐含30%的复合年均增长率。2025至2027年的运营收入，分别为49亿、68 亿，以及74亿美元，归属股东净利润从2025财年的13亿美元上升至2027财年的22亿美元(隐含30%的盈 利复合年均增长率)。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，首次覆盖紫金黄金国际(02259)，予"买入"评级，目标价189港 元。瑞银表示，紫金黄金国际是紫金矿业(02899)海外黄金矿的分拆子公司，预计公司的产量，在2025 至2027年将实现约20%的复合年均增长率，总产量从45吨增加至65吨，从而带来30%的盈利复合年均增 长率。 瑞银已将2025至2027年黄金价格预测，分别上调至3,320美元、3,825美元、3,650美元/盎司，高 于市场共识7%。鉴于紫金黄金国际的强劲盈利增长，以及品质保证，瑞银将紫金黄金国际目标价定在 189元，相当于2026年预测市盈率30倍，较香港/中国金矿企业2026年预测市盈率15至25倍的区间，存有 溢价。 瑞银表示，紫金黄金国际在 ...

瑞银发表研究报告，首次覆盖紫金黄金国际，予"买入"评级，鉴于紫金黄金国际的强劲盈利增长，以及 质量保证，瑞银将紫金黄金国际目标价定在189港元，相当于2026年预测市盈率30倍，较香港/中国金矿 企业2026年预测市盈率15至25倍的区间，存有溢价。瑞银表示，紫金黄金国际在中亚、澳洲、南美和非 洲拥有九座矿山的权益。结合当前项目和现有矿山的进一步扩张，特别是Akyem金矿和RG金矿产量的 翻倍，公司可能在2027财年成为香港或内地最大的上市黄金矿商，超越山东黄金和中金黄金。 通过并购计划，紫金黄金国际预计在2025至2030财年实现17%的产量复合年均增长率，到2030年达到 100吨的目标产量。鉴于看涨的黄金价格展望，及紫金黄金国际的营运指标，瑞银预计公司盈利从2025 年的13亿美元增长至2027年的22亿美元，隐含30%的复合年均增长率；2025至2027年的营运收入分别为 49亿、68亿，以及74亿美元。 ...

美银证券发布研报称，将香港交易所(00388)港股2025至2027年日均成交额预测由2,400亿、2,600亿及 2,600亿港元，上调至2,600亿、2,700亿及2,700亿港元，但基于低利率环境，将净投资收入预测下调5至 7%，同时将盈利预测上调1至2%，维持520港元目标价不变，重申"买入"评级。 该行预期港交所今年首三季盈利将达129亿港元，同比增长39%。今年第三季日均成交金额为2,860亿港 元，创历史新高。不过，该行预期港交所净投资收入将受期内港元拆息波动影响。虽然港元拆息已于第 二季回落，但对净投资收入的滞后影响可能到第三季才浮现，而且随着拆息于8至9月反弹，料有关影响 会于第四季消退。 美银证券又提到，预期港交所2026至2027年盈利增长，将由2025年的24%放缓至8%，除非总市值显著 提高，否则单靠成交额增长难以推动收入，并预期衍生产品将成为关键增长引擎。另外，该行料香港 IPO与沪深交易所的竞争可能加剧，因内地更重视新科技板块，或透过激励政策将重点企业留在境内上 市。 ...

金融数据和软件公司FactSet将标普500指数盈利预测从先前估计的7.7%微调至7.9%。虽然数据看似稳 健，而且实际盈利增长通常优于季前预测，但已低于第二季度的双位数增速。这显示市场仍呈现"头重 脚轻"格局，即依赖"科技七巨头"与大型科技股去推动盈利增长。这或许能解释为何近期市宽持续停 滞，多数股票和板块表现远逊于领先版块。 格隆汇9月30日｜嘉信理财固定收益策略主管Kathy Jones表示，一连串经济数据均超过预期，加上通胀 数据高居不下，国债收益率已回升至美联储会议前水平。市场焦点将集中在劳动力市场报告与政府停摆 的风险，两者甚至有可能会同时发酵。她指出，考虑到就业市场对美联储降息决策的重要性，以及9月 失业报告可能延迟发布，将加剧市场对政策走向的忧虑。 ...

A.G. BARR p.l.c. reported that its first half profit before tax increased to 35.2 million pounds from 24.9 million pounds, prior year. Earnings per share was 24.61 pence compared to 16.72 pence. Adjusted profit before tax increased to 35.2 million pounds from 29.3 million pounds. Adjusted basic EPS was 24.90 pence compared to 19.86 pence. For the six months ended 26 July 2025, revenue increased by 3.1% to 228.1 million pounds. Euan Sutherland, CEO, said: "Our expectations for the full year 2025/26 are unch ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **MSCI China Index** and its performance in the context of the Chinese stock market, highlighting its recent structural improvements and growth potential [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **MSCI China Index** has shown a **48% cumulative return** over the past 12 months, with a **38% year-to-date return**, second only to South Korea's **50%** [1][9]. - The **earnings growth** has been a significant driver of market returns, contributing positively for three consecutive years since 2023: **0.6%** in 2023, **5.0%** in 2024, and **3.2%** in 2025 [2][13]. - The **profitability trend** has stabilized, with a notable shift in leading sectors, particularly in **internet, finance, and technology**, which now dominate the index [2][24]. - The **earnings revision breadth (ERB)** turned positive in August 2025, making MSCI China one of the only two major markets globally to exhibit this trend [18][24]. Future Outlook - The outlook for **sustainable earnings growth** is optimistic, particularly in key sectors such as **internet, technology, pharmaceuticals, and automotive** [3][40]. - The **banking sector** remains an exception with negative revisions, but its impact on overall earnings growth is expected to be limited [3][40]. - The **e-commerce sector** is anticipated to see a reduction in profit downgrades as price competition peaks in Q3 2025 [3][40]. Important but Overlooked Content - The report emphasizes the **structural improvements** in the Chinese market, including a recovery in **return on equity (ROE)** and a shift towards high-quality large-cap stocks [14][24]. - The **MSCI China forward P/E ratio** increased from **8.7x** in August 2024 to **12.3x** in September 2025, reflecting a **42%** rise, indicating a revaluation based on improved fundamentals [14]. - The **internet, finance, and technology sectors** collectively account for **76.9%** of the MSCI China Index, up from **70.4%** in 2022, highlighting a significant shift in market composition [24][26]. - The **expected contributions** to total earnings per share (EPS) from key sectors for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be around **80%**, with the internet sector expected to regain its leading position in EPS growth by 2026 [26][31]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed understanding of the current state and future potential of the Chinese stock market, particularly through the lens of the MSCI China Index.

Core Viewpoint - UBS has released a report indicating that assuming gold prices are approximately 10% higher than market consensus, the bank's profit forecast for Zhaojin Mining (01818) exceeds market expectations [1] Group 1: Profit Forecasts - Based on the strong growth trend in Zhaojin's production, UBS has raised its profit forecast, expecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54% from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The target price for Zijin has been increased from HKD 25.3 to HKD 37, reflecting a forecasted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23 times for 2026, with a reiterated "buy" rating [1] Group 2: Gold Price Predictions - UBS has significantly raised its gold price forecasts, anticipating prices of USD 4,000 per ounce by the end of this year and USD 4,200 per ounce by the end of next year [1] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to a rise in investor positions and a continuously expanding investor base, alongside a weakening dollar and declining real interest rates due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle [1]

Company Overview - Minor International Public Company Limited is a Thai company operating in the global hospitality, restaurant, and lifestyle sectors, with a presence in over 60 countries [1] - The company manages well-known brands such as Anantara Hotels, NH Hotels, The Pizza Company, Burger King, and The Coffee Club [1] - The market capitalization of Minor International is approximately US$4.1 billion [1] Performance Metrics - The company's Profitable Growth rank is 8, which has declined from the previous period's 3rd rank, indicating below-average performance compared to 970 large consumer discretionary companies globally [5] - The Profitability rank is also 8, which is worse than its Growth rank of 6, and has decreased from the prior period's 7th rank, again reflecting below-average performance compared to peers [5] - The Growth rank has dropped to 6 from the previous period's 1st rank, further emphasizing below-average performance relative to competitors [5]