比罗尔表示，"美洲五国"(美国、加拿大、巴西、圭亚那、阿根廷)的石油产量增速已超过需求增速，石 油市场将处于过剩状态。需求增长放缓的主要原因是中国正逐步减少对重工业和燃油汽车的依赖。本月 早些时候，IEA已上调2026年石油过剩规模预期，认为届时将出现创纪录的石油过剩。 上周，美国对俄罗斯最大几家石油生产商实施新制裁，引发市场对石油实际供应的担忧，原油价格因此 上涨近8%。作为俄罗斯石油的主要买家，印度的炼油厂表示将停止采购俄罗斯石油，中国部分炼油厂 也出现恐慌性停止采购的情况。 智通财经APP获悉，国际能源署(IEA)表示，受供应充足影响，预计油价将趋于平稳。IEA执行董事法提 赫·比罗尔(Fatih Birol)称："得益于美洲地区产量持续增长、欧佩克+(OPEC+)调整政策扩大产能，以及 需求增长放缓，我认为油市不会出现重大动荡。综合这些趋势，我预计未来几天到几周内，油价将趋于 平稳。" 他指出，若不发生其他重大地缘政治事件，关于中美本周可能达成贸易协议的猜测，仅会给油价带 来"小幅提振"。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, and the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened. The geopolitical premium faded, and the fundamental surplus intensified. The latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026 again. With a large number of oil tankers heading to major trading and transportation centers, on - land inventory pressure increased significantly in October, which is the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. [7] - Tensions in the Middle East flared up again as the Israeli Defense Forces carried out an air - strike on southern Gaza. Meanwhile, multiple factors influenced Russian oil supply, with India stating it would stop purchasing Russian oil, but the export volume from Russia to India in the first half of October increased by 250,000 barrels per day month - on - month. [7] - Fundamentally, global on - land oil inventories fluctuated this week, and the total waterborne inventory remained flat. OPEC production increased by about 500,000 barrels per day in September, and crude oil net exports soared. Non - OPEC countries like Brazil, the US, Guyana, and Norway also saw a significant increase in crude oil net exports. [7] - This week, oil prices and global refinery profits weakened. The profit of gasoline in the external market was slightly stronger than that of diesel, while in the domestic market, gasoline was significantly weaker than diesel. During the peak maintenance period, downstream profits declined, and the domestic start - up rate was expected to weaken marginally. The demand side provided weak support for oil prices. [7] - The subsequent oil price trend depends on whether Russian crude oil supply declines marginally and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations before the APEC meeting at the end of October. In the baseline scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is currently in the trend of waterborne inventory converting to OECD inventory. The expected surplus in 2026 is 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day. Attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on Russia and Iran on their export volumes in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation phase. [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price Data - From October 17 to 23, WTI increased from $57.54 to $61.79, a rise of $3.29; BRENT rose from $61.29 to $65.99, an increase of $3.40; DUBAI went up from $63.26 to $65.24, a gain of $1.38. [3] - During the same period, SC increased by 12.50, OMAN rose by 4.93. The spread between SC and BRT changed by - 1.61, and the spread between SC and WTI changed by - 1.50. [3] - The price of Japanese naphtha CFR increased from $537.00 to $551.50, and the spread between Japanese naphtha and BRT increased from $86.52 to $91.46. The Singapore 380CST fuel oil premium changed by 0.73, and the spread between Singapore 380 and BRT changed by - 6.65. [3] 2. Daily News - German Chancellor Merz is optimistic that the US will exempt the German subsidiary of Russian oil company Rosneft. There are concerns that without the exemption, the German subsidiary may be cut off from major customers. [3] - The US government is preparing a proposal to open almost all US coastal waters for new offshore oil drilling, which has been opposed by local governors. The preliminary draft indicates a significant expansion of areas eligible for oil and gas leasing in the US. [4] - Kuwait's oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase production in response to rising demand. This statement was made against the backdrop of rising oil prices after the US imposed new sanctions on Russia. [4] 3. Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report for the week of October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels, a decrease of 0.2%; the four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period last year; the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels, an increase of 0.2%; commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 5.918 million barrels per day, an increase of 393,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [6] - For the week of October 10, US EIA gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels (expected - 75,000 barrels, previous value - 1.601 million barrels), and EIA refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels (expected - 294,000 barrels, previous value - 2.018 million barrels). [6] - From September 19 - 25, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while the operating rate of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline production decreased, while diesel production increased. Gasoline inventory increased, while diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month. [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - From October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened, and Dubai 1 - 2 weakened to 0. The geopolitical premium subsided, and the fundamental surplus intensified. The latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026 again. With a large number of oil tankers transporting to major trading and transportation centers recently, the on - land inventory pressure increased significantly, and October was the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. The follow - up oil price trend needs to focus on whether Russian crude oil supply declines marginally and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations before the APEC meeting at the end of October. In the benchmark scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is expected to be 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Oil Price and Related Data - From October 16 - 22, WTI increased by $1.26, BRENT by $1.27, and DUBAI by $0.52. Other related indicators such as spreads and prices of refined products also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - On October 23, international oil prices soared 4% as the US Treasury Department blacklisted Russian state - owned oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil and their subsidiaries, which account for nearly half of Russia's crude oil exports (about 2.2 million barrels per day in the first half of this year). The US Treasury Department stated that this move would weaken Russia's ability to raise revenue for the conflict. Oil prices were also supported by the growth of US energy demand, as the EIA reported a decline in US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week [3][4]. - As of the week of October 20, the total refined oil inventory in Fujairah, UAE increased by 2.202 million barrels to 20.014 million barrels, with light distillate inventory decreasing by 0.851 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increasing by 0.668 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory increasing by 2.385 million barrels [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day, commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels (a 0.2% decrease), the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels (a 0.2% increase), and commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 393,000 barrels per day to 5.918 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a 0.1% decrease from the same period last year [5]. - From September 19 - 25, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. Domestic gasoline production decreased while diesel production increased, gasoline inventory increased while diesel inventory decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries decreased month - on - month [5]. 4. Weekly Viewpoints - In the week of October 13 - 17, international oil prices continued to decline, the monthly spreads of the three markets weakened, and the geopolitical premium subsided. The fundamental surplus intensified, and the latest IEA monthly report raised the global oil surplus forecast for 2026. The on - land inventory pressure increased significantly, and October was the point with the largest absolute surplus throughout the year. The follow - up oil price trend needs to focus on Russian crude oil supply and Sino - US trade negotiations. In the benchmark scenario, the surplus in the fourth quarter is over 2 million barrels per day, and it is expected to be 1.8 - 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026. It is expected that the absolute price center in the fourth quarter will fall back to $55 - 60 per barrel, and short - term oil prices will be in a volatile consolidation [6].

Core Viewpoint - Despite predictions of an impending oil surplus, global crude oil prices remain resilient, trading around $67 per barrel, contrary to forecasts suggesting a drop to $50 or lower [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Major institutions, including the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), predict significant oil surpluses, with the IEA forecasting a record surplus of 3.3 million barrels per day by 2026 and the EIA estimating a surplus of 2.1 million barrels per day in the second half of this year [1][2]. - The current market is characterized by a "spot premium," where immediate delivery oil is priced higher than future delivery, indicating market tightness rather than an imminent surplus [2]. Group 2: China's Role in the Oil Market - China is viewed as a stabilizing force in the oil market, actively purchasing crude oil, which traders interpret as a sign of increasing consumption rather than oversupply [2]. - The IEA projects that global oil consumption will rise by only 700,000 barrels per day next year, marking the slowest growth since 2009, excluding the pandemic period [2]. Group 3: OPEC+ Production and Market Reactions - OPEC+ has increased production quotas by 2.5 million barrels per day since April, but actual production increases are expected to be lower due to several member countries reaching maximum capacity [3]. - Analysts suggest that if OPEC+ fails to meet production targets, the anticipated surplus may be smaller than predicted, potentially limiting downward pressure on oil prices [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Some analysts believe that the anticipated surplus may not significantly impact oil prices, as long as demand from China continues and OPEC+ maintains limited spare capacity [3][4]. - There is a sentiment that when too many traders align on a bearish outlook, it often does not materialize, indicating that unexpected factors could influence market dynamics [4].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that China will continue to accelerate its crude oil reserves this year and by 2026, driven by falling oil prices and concerns over energy security [1] Group 1: Oil Inventory and Demand - Goldman Sachs' oil research head Daan Struyven estimates that China's oil inventory will increase by 500,000 barrels per day over the next five quarters [1] - Despite China's significant oil purchases, Goldman Sachs still expects Brent crude prices to drop to around $55 per barrel next year [1] - Gunvor Group's research head Frederic Lasserre estimates that China's oil inventory has been increasing by approximately 200,000 barrels per day in recent months [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Participants at the Asia-Pacific Oil Conference indicated that China's purchases are helping to support demand and push up oil prices amid an impending global oil surplus [1] - The International Energy Agency forecasts that record oil surplus in 2026 will be larger than previously predicted due to increased production from OPEC+ and other oil-producing countries [1] Group 3: Current Oil Prices - As of the report, WTI crude is down 1.01% at $61.74 per barrel, while Brent crude is down 0.93% at $65.75 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude oil falling nearly 2% and WTI crude oil dropping over 2% during trading on September 3rd [2][4]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Discussions - OPEC+ is set to discuss further increasing oil production at an upcoming meeting, with eight member countries participating. This move aims to regain market share, potentially leading to a cancellation of the second phase of production cuts, which currently stands at approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, accounting for 1.6% of global oil demand [6]. - Previously, OPEC+ had agreed to raise production targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, with an additional quota increase of 300,000 barrels per day for the UAE. However, actual production increases have not met these commitments due to some countries needing to compensate for previous overproduction and others facing capacity constraints [7]. Group 2: Oil Demand Forecasts - OPEC's monthly oil market report from August 12 indicated an upward revision in the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026, projecting an increase of approximately 1.38 million barrels per day, reaching 106.5 million barrels per day. The 2025 forecast remains unchanged, with an expected increase of 1.29 million barrels per day, totaling 105.1 million barrels per day [8]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to an anticipated oil surplus in 2026, Brent crude oil futures prices could drop to the low $50 range by the end of 2026. The firm expects a daily supply surplus of 1.8 million barrels from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global inventories by nearly 800 million barrels, with one-third of this inventory stored in OECD member countries [8][9]. - The forecast suggests that while oil prices may remain stable near current forward contract levels in 2025, this balance is expected to break in 2026, with Brent's "fair value" projected to decrease from the current $70 range to the $50 range, particularly as inventories continue to accumulate [9].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude oil falling nearly 2% and WTI crude oil dropping over 2% during trading sessions [1][3]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Discussions - OPEC+ is set to discuss further increasing oil production at an upcoming meeting, with eight member countries involved, aiming to regain market share [5]. - If the production increase plan is implemented, OPEC+'s crude oil output will account for about half of global supply, potentially lifting the current reduction measures of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, which represents 1.6% of global oil demand [5]. - OPEC+ had previously agreed to raise production targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, with an additional quota increase of 300,000 barrels per day for the UAE [5]. Group 2: Oil Demand Forecasts - OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2026, projecting an increase of approximately 1.38 million barrels per day, reaching 106.5 million barrels per day [6][7]. - For 2025, global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.29 million barrels per day, totaling 105.1 million barrels per day, with the 2026 forecast being adjusted due to improved economic growth expectations in certain regions [7]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to an anticipated oversupply of oil next year, Brent crude oil prices could drop to the low $50 range by the end of 2026 [8]. - The firm expects a supply surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global oil inventories by nearly 800 million barrels [8]. - The accumulation of oil stocks, particularly in OECD countries, is expected to coincide with a decrease in oil demand in these regions, further exerting downward pressure on prices [8].

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude falling nearly 2% and WTI crude dropping over 2% during trading sessions [1][3]. Group 1: OPEC+ Production Discussions - OPEC+ is set to discuss increasing oil production among eight member countries in an upcoming meeting, aiming to regain market share [5]. - If the production increase plan is implemented, OPEC+'s crude oil output could account for about half of global supply, potentially lifting the current reduction measures of approximately 1.65 million barrels per day, which represents 1.6% of global oil demand [5]. - OPEC+ had previously agreed to raise production targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, with an additional 300,000 barrels per day allocated to the UAE [5]. Group 2: Global Oil Demand Forecast - OPEC has revised its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2026, projecting an increase of approximately 1.38 million barrels per day, reaching 106.5 million barrels per day [6][7]. - For 2025, global oil demand is expected to rise by 1.29 million barrels per day, totaling 105.1 million barrels per day [7]. - The upward revision in demand forecasts is attributed to improved economic growth expectations in certain regions, including the OECD, Middle East, and Africa [7]. Group 3: Future Oil Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to an anticipated oversupply of oil next year, Brent crude futures could drop to the low $50 range by the end of 2026 [8]. - The firm expects a daily oversupply of 1.8 million barrels from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026, leading to an increase in global oil inventories by nearly 800 million barrels [8]. - The accumulation of oil stocks, particularly in OECD countries, coincides with a decline in oil demand in these regions, which is expected to further depress oil prices [8].

Group 1: Hot News - Next month, the Ministry of Commerce will introduce several policies and measures to expand service consumption, using fiscal and financial means to optimize and enhance service supply capacity and stimulate new service consumption volume. The Ministry of Commerce and relevant departments have jointly formulated "Several Policy Measures to Promote Service Exports", and relevant documents will be publicly issued soon [2] - Shanghai has issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages, prioritizing the renovation of villages with urgent public needs and many urban safety and social governance hidden dangers. The renovation of urban villages should solicit the opinions of villagers, and the initial shareholding ratio of the town collective economic organization in the cooperative renovation should generally not be less than 10% [2] - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June and narrowing for two consecutive months. Among them, the profits of high-tech manufacturing increased by 18.9% from a 0.9% decline in June, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared to June, showing a significant leading role [2] - As of August 27, among 89 blast furnaces of 23 sample steel enterprises surveyed, 2 new blast furnaces were under maintenance, with a newly added maintenance volume of 4340m³ and a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 10,300 tons. Currently, a total of 16 blast furnaces of steel enterprises in Tangshan are under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal of about 47,400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 88.83%. Steel mills will gradually shut down and maintain blast furnaces at the end of the month as required. It is expected that 16 new blast furnaces will be under maintenance, with a daily average impact on hot metal production of about 116,600 tons (including previously maintained blast furnaces). The capacity utilization rate will drop to 78.13%, a decrease of 10.7% compared to the current level (August 27) and a decrease of 6.84% compared to the same period last year [3] - Goldman Sachs expects the oil surplus to intensify, with an average daily surplus of 1.8 million barrels from the fourth quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter of 2026. By the end of 2026, global oil inventories will increase by nearly 800 million barrels. It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, polysilicon, PVC, Shanghai copper, and plastic [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Night session performance by sector: Non-metallic building materials 2.81%, precious metals 27.04%, oilseeds 12.20%, non-ferrous metals 21.32%, soft commodities 2.52%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.43%, energy 3.18%, chemicals 12.11%, grains 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.17% [4] Group 4: Large Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.76%, a monthly increase of 6.36%, and an annual increase of 13.38%. The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.24%, a monthly increase of 2.24%, and an annual increase of 10.20%. Other indices also had their respective performance [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.08%, a monthly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 0.83%. Other treasury bond futures also had corresponding performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.32%, and an annual increase of 1.35%. WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.96%, a monthly decrease of 7.74%, and an annual decrease of 11.21%. Other commodities also showed different trends [7] - Others: The US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.86%, and an annual decrease of 9.48%. The CBOE volatility index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 12.56%, and an annual decrease of 15.73% [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term crude oil absolute prices are expected to remain oscillating strongly, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - 70. Medium - term absolute prices are expected to weaken, with prices dropping to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the adjustment of the European autumn maintenance expectations, the fourth - quarter European diesel crack price expectations are raised [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - From August 21 to August 27, 2025, WTI crude oil increased by $0.90, BRENT by $0.83, and DUBAI by $0.03. Other indicators such as BRENT 1 - 2 month spread, WTI - BRENT, etc., also showed corresponding changes [3]. - During the same period, SC decreased by 16.40, OMAN increased by 1.00, and SC - BRT decreased by 3.06. Domestic gasoline prices decreased by 30.00, and domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 75.00 [3]. - For other products like Japanese naphtha, Singapore fuel oil, etc., there were also significant price and spread changes during this period [3]. 3.2 Daily News - The White House trade advisor Navarro said that if India stops buying Russian oil, it can get a 25% tariff discount [3]. - The Mexican DOS BOCAS refinery stopped production due to a power outage and will try to restart on Thursday [3]. - European countries may start the UN procedure to re - impose sanctions on Iran on Thursday, and there is room for further diplomatic negotiations in the next few weeks [3]. - Affected by the Ukrainian attack and US tariff policies, Russian crude oil exports fell to a four - week low. In the week ending August 24, Russian port weekly crude oil shipments decreased by 320,000 barrels per day to 2.72 million barrels per day [4]. - Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude oil prices to fall to just over $50 by the end of 2026 due to an expanding oil surplus next year [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day [5]. - US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 21.093 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.34% [5]. - US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.497 million barrels per day, a decrease of 423,000 barrels per day from the previous week [5]. - From August 15 to 22, the main refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month, the Shandong local refinery operating rate increased slightly. Chinese refinery weekly production of gasoline and diesel both decreased, gasoline inventory decreased, and diesel inventory increased. The comprehensive profit of main refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [5]. 3.4 Weekly View - This week, oil prices oscillated narrowly, and the absolute price rebounded slightly on Friday. At the end of the summer peak oil demand season, the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. The South American supply has been realized, and the market is concerned about the Russia - Ukraine negotiations and the implementation of US "punishment" measures on India's purchase of Russian oil [6]. - India said on August 21 that it would continue to buy Russian oil, eliminating the embargo risk, but there is still uncertainty in trade frictions. The US issued a new round of sanctions against Iran on Thursday, which had a greater potential impact, and then the Dubai market month - spread strengthened [6]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, the expectation of a US interest rate cut in September has increased, and the macro - sentiment is positive, supporting the absolute price. Fundamentally, the global oil inventory has slightly decreased, the US commercial inventory has decreased, gasoline inventory has decreased, and diesel inventory has increased. This week, the refining profits of European and American refineries have strengthened, and the gasoline and diesel cracks have strengthened [6]. - Currently, refineries are at the peak of operation. The latest estimate is that global refinery maintenance in October will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil month - spread is expected to be under pressure [6].