Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of zinc is growing faster as zinc mine imports increase, processing fees rise, smelter profits improve, new production capacities are released, and previously shut - down capacities resume production. The import loss is widening, leading to a decline in imported zinc. On the demand side, it is the off - season, with a year - on - year drop in the开工率 of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream buyers purchase on - demand at low prices, and domestic social inventory accumulation has slowed down while the spot premium has slightly rebounded. Overseas, LME inventory has decreased significantly and the spot premium has been lowered. Technically, with reduced positions and price corrections, both long and short sides are cautious, and the price has broken below the MA60 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,255 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 08 - 09 month contract spread is 5 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,729.5 dollars/ton, down 32.5 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 211,200 lots, down 3,382 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 1,862 lots, down 1,646 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 14,907 tons, down 75 tons; SHFE inventory is 61,724 tons, up 2,305 tons; LME inventory is 100,825 tons, down 3,975 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market is 21,890 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 85 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is - 10.96 dollars/ton, down 4.4 dollars - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,040 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; ILZSG: The monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - ILZSG: The monthly global zinc mine output is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the monthly domestic refined zinc output is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - The monthly zinc mine import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the monthly refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - The weekly zinc social inventory is 84,300 tons, up 800 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - The monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 13.8%, down 1.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 13.8%, down 1.2 percentage points - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.41%, down 0.76 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 14.08%, up 0.01 percentage points [3] 3.7行业消息 - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 73,000 in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a September rate cut despite concerns about inflation - Starting from August 8, 2025, China will resume levying value - added tax on the interest income of newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees and a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits have been further repaired, leading to increased production enthusiasm. With the release of new production capacity and the resumption of previously overhauled capacity, the supply growth has accelerated. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, resulting in a decline in the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, with a year - on - year decrease in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusted widely, and downstream enterprises purchase on demand at low prices and have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium has dropped to a low level. Overseas, LME inventories are stable, and the spot premium has been adjusted downward. Technically, the position has decreased, and the price has corrected, with cautious trading between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see or take a short position with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,345 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is - 35 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,795.5 dollars/ton, down 19 dollars - The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 214,027 lots, down 9,725 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 11,306 lots, down 419 lots - Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 15,232 tons, down 75 tons; SHFE inventory is 59,419 tons, up 4,789 tons; LME inventory is 109,050 tons, down 3,100 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,300 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,820 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 45 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 2.69 dollars/ton, up 1.23 dollars - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,330 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - WBMS: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; ILZSG: The zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons - ILZSG: The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons - Zinc ore imports are 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; refined zinc exports are 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons - Zinc social inventory is 83,500 tons, up 2,600 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons - The newly started housing area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the completed housing area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters - Automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 14.97%, down 0.19%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 15%, down 0.15% - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 10%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 13.79%, down 0.07% [3] 3.7 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October, analyzed the current economic situation, and deployed economic work for the second half of the year - The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings, but two voting members support rate cuts, pointing out that economic growth has slowed down - The US private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, there are differences within the Fed. Some believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation will not be long - lasting, while others expect it to last until next year. Bentsen said Trump has unique abilities in identifying and solving problems but may lack patience in implementation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year [4]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Coupled with a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, the smelter's profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various regions have been gradually released, and the previously shut - down capacities have resumed production, leading to a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusting widely. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and still have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased slightly, and the spot premium is at a low level. The LME zinc premium overseas has risen, and inventories have continued to decline, driving up domestic prices [4]. - Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious. The price is oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 22,500 [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded this week, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the macro - aspect, Fed members have different views on tariff - related inflation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year. Fundamentally, supply is increasing due to factors like increased zinc ore imports and processing fees. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Technically, the price is in a range - bound oscillation [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Suggest waiting and seeing or conducting range operations [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from July 4, a decrease of 0.13%. As of July 10, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,777 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars/ton from July 4, an increase of 1.42%. The Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [9]. - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of July 11, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 33,000 lots, a decrease of 4,442 lots from July 4. The open interest was 252,089 lots, a decrease of 10,644 lots or 4.05% from July 4 [11]. - **Price Spreads**: As of July 11, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from July 4. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,305 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton from July 4 [18]. - **Premiums**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from July 4, an increase of 0.09%. The spot premium was 5 yuan/ton, a decrease from last week. As of July 10, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 4.68 dollars/ton, an increase of 26.67 dollars/ton from July 3 [24]. - **Inventories**: As of July 11, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 105,250 tons, a decrease of 7,075 tons or 6.3% from July 4. Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventories were 49,981 tons, an increase of 4,617 tons or 10.18% from last week. As of July 10, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 72,500 tons, an increase of 8,900 tons or 13.99% from July 3 [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In April 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. In May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28% [31]. - **Supply - side**: - According to WBMS, there is a global shortage of refined zinc supply [32]. - In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [39]. - In May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. The export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97% [42]. - **Downstream**: - From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%. The export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57% [45]. - From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%. The housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. From January to May 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [48][49]. - In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year [53][54]. - In May 2025, refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator production was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. In May 2025, air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [56][57]. - In May 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%. The automobile production was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [61].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The zinc price is running weakly. The downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory shipment speed has slowed down. The domestic social inventory is stable, but the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and the inventory has continued to decline, driving up the domestic price. Technically, the position has decreased and returned to the previous operating range. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,325 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,753 dollars/ton, up 39.5 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 264,239 lots, up 410 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 18,304 lots, up 4,592 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 6,599 tons, down 25 tons; the SHFE inventory is 43,633 tons, up 769 tons; the LME inventory is 113,425 tons, down 1,475 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 22,430 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 22,520 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 105 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 22.04 dollars/ton, down 3.29 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,210 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 61,600 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, an increase of 27.3729 million square meters; the monthly automobile output is 2.642 million vehicles, an increase of 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 15.19%, a decrease of 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 15.19%, a decrease of 0.34%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.27%, a decrease of 0.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 16.74%, a decrease of 0.05% [3] Industry News - In June, the US ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, with an expected increase of 98,000. The service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest - rate futures fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025. The preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association shows that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in June were 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report notes that domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are rising, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously overhauled capacities are resuming production, accelerating supply growth. The import window is currently closed, reducing the inflow of imported zinc. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, with a year - on - year decline in the operating rate of processing enterprises. Zinc prices are running weakly, and consumption is gradually weakening. With enterprises having made more low - price purchases earlier, inventory shipment speed has slowed, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced. Domestic social inventories are stable. However, the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and inventories continue to decline, driving up domestic prices. Technically, positions are decreasing, and prices are back in the previous operating range. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term. The report suggests temporarily observing the market [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,230 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,713.5 dollars/ton, down 27.5 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 263,829 lots, down 4,934 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 13,712 lots, down 2,430 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipt is 6,624 tons, down 200 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 43,633 tons (weekly), up 769 tons; the LME inventory is 114,900 tons (daily), down 2,575 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,260 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 60 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 18.75 dollars/ton, down 8.52 dollars [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,160 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - The global zinc ore production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons (monthly), up 7,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 61,600 tons (weekly), up 2,700 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 23,1836,100 square meters, up 5,347,770 square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 18,3851,400 square meters, up 2,737,290 square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option of zinc is 15.54% (daily), down 0.57%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option of zinc is 15.53% (daily), down 0.57% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 7.38% (daily), down 0.42%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 16.78% (daily), down 0.14% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Powell did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, stating that if not for tariffs, a rate cut would have occurred, and tariffs are expected to affect inflation [3]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 49, higher than the expected 48.8 and the previous value of 48.5. Indicators for raw material payment prices showed signs of slightly accelerating inflation. Import and export indicators were still in contraction, but the decline rate slowed. The order backlog index had the largest decline in a year [3]. - The eurozone manufacturing sector showed signs of stabilization in June, with the PMI rising to 49.5, the highest since August 2022, and output growth for the fourth consecutive month. New orders stabilized in June [3]. - Facing the July 9 deadline for tariff restart, the Trump administration adjusted its trade negotiation strategy, shifting from seeking a comprehensive reciprocal agreement to a more limited phased agreement to avoid re - imposing severe tariffs on some countries [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates zinc prices to fluctuate within a range. It suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach, with a focus on the price range of 2.18 - 2.25. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports are rising, processing fees are increasing, and sulfuric acid prices are up, which restores smelter profits. However, there are supply disruptions due to a smelter's extended maintenance. The import window is closed, reducing imported zinc inflows. On the demand side, it's the end of the peak season, with lower processing enterprise开工率 and potential export demand shrinkage. But lower zinc prices lead to more bargain - hunting and a decline in domestic social inventories, while overseas de - stocking continues. Technically, there are differences between long and short positions in open interest increment [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,340 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price difference between the 07 - 08 contracts is 160 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,704 dollars/ton, down 7.5 dollars. - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 240,856 lots, an increase of 2,590 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 10,173 lots, a decrease of 3,110 lots. - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 2,004 tons, an increase of 628 tons; the SHFE inventory is 42,310 tons, a decrease of 1,763 tons; the LME inventory is 136,275 tons, a decrease of 1,075 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,850 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,800 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 510 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 29.28 dollars/ton, down 4.09 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production by ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 576,000 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons. - The zinc social inventory is 56,800 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The production of galvanized sheets is 2,320,000 tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2,340,000 tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons. - The new housing start area is 178,358,400 square meters, an increase of 48,393,800 square meters; the housing completion area is 156,478,500 square meters, an increase of 25,875,800 square meters. - The automobile production is 2,604,000 vehicles, a decrease of 440,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19,678,800 units, an increase of 3,476,400 units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 15.42%, a decrease of 0.74 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 15.42%, a decrease of 0.73 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 10.95%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 16.78%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - US President Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates, and the US ADP employment in May increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. - The Fed's "Beige Book" showed a slight decline in US economic activity, with increased policy uncertainty and price pressure. - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.24 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The estimated cumulative wholesale from January to May was 5.22 million, a year - on - year increase of 41% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US economy is expected to slow down this year but not enter a recession, and there may be a rate cut in 2025, with growth projected between 0.5% and 1%. In China, since April, multiple sectors like consumption, investment, and industrial production have shown positive trends under the coordinated action of macro - policies. [3] - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, zinc ore processing fees have continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly. Refineries' profits have further recovered, production enthusiasm has increased, and overall production will continue to grow. Although the import window is currently closed, previously imported zinc is gradually flowing in. [3] - On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually warming up. However, the recent rise in zinc prices has weakened downstream bargain - hunting purchases, leading to a decline in spot premiums. Domestic social inventories have slightly increased, while overseas inventories continue to decline. The real estate sector at the end - user level has marginally improved but still drags down demand. [3] - Technically, the position has decreased. The price of zinc is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,455 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the 06 - 07 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 210 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,691.5 dollars/ton, down 33 dollars. - The total position of Shanghai zinc is 222,642 lots, up 22 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 5,863 lots, down 3,884 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 1,701 tons, down 474 tons. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 46,351 tons (weekly), down 751 tons; the LME inventory is 164,200 tons, down 975 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,650 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,410 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 195 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the LME zinc forward premium (0 - 3) is - 20.95 dollars/ton, up 1.43 dollars. - The factory - delivered price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,680 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), an increase of 10,400 tons. - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons (monthly), up 18,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons. - The social inventory of zinc is 67,700 tons (weekly), up 700 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production value of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons (monthly), down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons (monthly), down 120,000 tons. - The new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters (monthly), up 63.8246 million square meters; the housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters (monthly), up 42.9606 million square meters. - The automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles (monthly), down 454,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units (monthly), up 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 16.28% (daily), down 0.56%; the implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 16.28% (daily), down 0.56%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 11.86% (daily), down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 16.75% (daily), down 0.02%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - In April, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, 0.5 percentage points faster than the previous month, and increased by 0.24% month - on - month. The "trade - in" policy drove the continuous improvement of products such as automobiles and home appliances. The retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment of units above the designated size increased by 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% respectively. The national online retail sales increased by 7.7% compared with the previous year. - From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1.47024 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. Excluding real estate development investment, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 8.0%. Infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 8.8%, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.3%. - Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that he expects the US economy to slow down this year but not enter a recession, and reiterated that there may be a rate cut in 2025. He said that the US economic growth this year may be between 0.5% and 1%. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The overall zinc production will continue to increase due to rising zinc ore imports, rising zinc ore processing fees, a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, improved smelter profits, increased production enthusiasm, and the resumption of some maintenance and shutdown capacities [3]. - The subsequent refined zinc imports are expected to decline as the import window is closed and the import loss is expanding [3]. - The demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually warming up. The recent decline in zinc prices has improved the downstream's bargain - hunting purchasing atmosphere, with high spot premiums and a significant decline in domestic inventories, entering the traditional destocking cycle, while overseas destocking continues [3]. - The terminal real estate market has marginally improved but still drags down demand, and attention should be paid to subsequent favorable policy guidance [3]. - Technically, with a decrease in positions, attention should be paid to the MA10 support, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go long on dips [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,590 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the 06 - 07 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,765 dollars/ton, up 60 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 222,896 hands, down 3,156 hands [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 2,784 hands, down 736 hands; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 2,571 tons, up 971 tons [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 47,102 tons (weekly), down 1,375 tons; the LME inventory is 167,050 tons (daily), down 900 tons [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is 310 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 22.27 dollars/ton, up 5.07 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,780 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons (monthly), down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons (monthly), up 10,400 tons [3]. - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons (monthly), down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons (monthly), up 18,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons (monthly), up 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons (monthly), down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons (monthly), up 266.83 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 67,000 tons (weekly), up 800 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 17.13% (daily), up 0.01%; the implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 17.14% (daily), up 0.02% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 11.75% (daily), up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 16.86% (daily), down 0.22% [3]. Industry News - At the end of April, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%. The stock of social financing scale was 424 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. In the first four months, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan year - on - year; the RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, an increase of 339.7 billion yuan year - on - year [3]. - Goldman Sachs believes that trade between China and the United States will increase significantly in the next 90 days. Enterprises will compete to increase inventory reserves, especially US importers may launch a new wave of buying, and China's exports will boom [3]. Viewpoint Summary - The overall zinc production will increase due to factors such as rising imports, processing fees, and sulfuric acid prices, as well as the resumption of some capacities [3]. - The refined zinc imports are expected to decline as the import window is closed and the loss is expanding [3]. - The downstream demand is warming up, with improved purchasing and falling inventories, but the real estate market still drags down demand [3]. - Technically, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are rising, and zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing. Coupled with a significant rise in sulfuric acid prices, smelters' profits are further repaired, production enthusiasm increases, and overall production will continue to rise. Currently, the import window is closed, and import losses are expanding, so subsequent refined zinc imports are expected to decline. On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season for downstream industries is gradually picking up. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, the atmosphere of downstream bargain - hunting purchases has improved, the spot premium is high, domestic inventories have decreased significantly, entering the traditional destocking cycle, and overseas destocking continues. Terminal real estate has marginally improved but still drags on demand. Attention should be paid to subsequent favorable policy guidance. [3] - Technically, the price stands above the MA10 with support below, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being or go long on dips. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,710 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan; the price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai zinc is 130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars. [3] - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 226,052 lots, down 3,743 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,520 lots, up 11,528 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 1,600 tons, unchanged. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 47,102 tons, down 1,375 tons; the LME inventory is 167,950 tons, down 1,900 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,840 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,970 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan. [3] - The basis of the main ZN contract is 130 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 27.34 US dollars/ton, up 0.03 US dollars. [3] - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,600 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. [3] - The global zinc ore production value of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, up 18,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. [3] - The zinc social inventory is 67,000 tons, up 800 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production value of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the completed housing area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 17.12%, down 0.1%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 17.12%, down 0.1%. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 11.67%, up 0.6%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option for zinc is 17.07%, up 0.41%. [3] 3.7 Industry News - Internationally, the unadjusted CPI in the US in April increased by 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, the lowest level since February 2021; the core CPI was flat at 2.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. US President Trump pressured the Fed Chairman to cut interest rates as soon as possible. Traders continued to bet that the Fed would cut interest rates for the first time in September and for the second time in October. [3] - The European Central Bank Governing Council member Villeroy said that since trade tensions have not intensified inflation in the region, the central bank may cut interest rates again by summer. Governing Council member Rehn pointed out that increased defense spending does not necessarily push up inflation. [3] - Domestically, China adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the US from 34% to 10% and suspended the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the US for 90 days. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall zinc production will increase due to the rise in zinc ore imports, continuous increase in zinc ore processing fees, significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, further repair of smelter profits, increased production enthusiasm, and the recovery of some overhauled and shut - down capacities. The import of refined zinc is expected to decline significantly as the import window closes and import losses widen. On the demand side, the demand in the traditional peak season is gradually picking up, the downstream purchasing atmosphere at low prices has improved, the domestic inventory has decreased significantly and entered the traditional destocking cycle, and overseas destocking continues. The terminal real estate has marginally improved but still drags on demand. Technically, with an increase in positions and a break below the MA10 support, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,355 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the 06 - 07 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 280 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,607.5 dollars/ton, up 30 dollars; the total position of Shanghai Zinc is 215,039 lots, up 12,602 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 1,830 lots, down 2,385 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 2,252 tons, down 102 tons; the SHFE inventory is 48,477 tons, down 2,901 tons; the LME inventory is 172,925 tons, down 975 tons; the spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,860 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,710 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [3] 现货市场 - The basis of the ZN main contract is 505 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 37.09 dollars/ton, down 0.2 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 615,000 tons, up 18,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the social zinc inventory is 71,000 tons, down 1,900 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 129.9646 million square meters, up 63.8246 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 130.6027 million square meters, up 42.9606 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 18.84%, up 1.06%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 18.84%, up 1.05%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 18.19%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 16.89%, down 0.37% [3] Industry News - In April, the US non - farm payrolls increased by 177,000, with an expected increase of 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. The final value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in April was 49, higher than the expected 48.7 and the initial value of 48.7; the final value of the French manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7, the highest since January 2023; the final value of the German manufacturing PMI in April was 48.4, the highest since August 2022. In April, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI were 50.4% and 50.2% respectively, remaining in the expansion range [3]