外交部：中方维护关键矿产全球产供链稳定与安全立场没有变化 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：张澍楠 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 中新网北京1月12日电 (记者 黄钰钦 曾玥)中国外交部发言人毛宁12日主持例行记者会。 有记者提问：七国集团和其他国家的官员正在美国举行会议，讨论稀土供应链问题。此外日媒报道称， 日本企业在获取民用稀土供应方面遇到了困难。请问中方对此有何评论？ 毛宁：中方加强两用物项对日本的出口管制，是为了维护国家安全和利益，履行防扩散等国际义务，完 全正当合理合法。中方维护关键矿产全球产供链稳定与安全的立场没有变化。同时我们也认为，各方都 有责任为此发挥建设性作用。(完) ...

那为何中方会突然加大对稀土的管控力度，允许国内稀土巨头大幅提高价格呢？牛姐认为，这一举措正是中国的危机意识体现。通过提价和限制供应链，中 国意在打击日本的高科技产业，同时逼迫日本的高层重新考虑其在台海问题上的过线言论。然而，日本显然没有得到教训，依旧坚持与中方对抗，导致局势 不断恶化。例如，片山皋月在公开场合不断谈论台海问题，但当记者询问日本政府的后续动作时，他又把问题抛给了美国，称日本必须观察美国的真实态 度。这显然是一种无力感的表现——日本政府太过天真，误以为美国会为他们在台湾问题上出头。可是，特朗普在1月9日的公开谈话中，明确表示：中国如 何处理台湾问题，是中国的内政。这番话言简意赅，显示出美国对台湾问题的开放态度，但并不打算为台独分子站台。美国的态度已经很清楚，连特朗普都 知道，与中国硬碰硬的后果是十分严重的，所以力求避开与中方的直接对抗，而日本却主动挑起争端，这无疑为中国提供了更多的反制空间。 那么，日本联合美欧，能否有能力建立一个独立于中国的稀土供应链呢？这个问题的答案并非简单。根据澳大利亚专家的分析，要想绕开中国的成熟稀土供 应链，美欧可能需要五到十年，且这一切都要建立在美欧紧密合作的基础上。在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan is seeking to establish a rare earth supply chain in collaboration with the US and Europe, aiming to reduce its dependence on China and counteract China's influence in the rare earth market [1][5]. Group 1: Japan's Actions and Statements - Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki announced plans to visit the US to discuss critical mineral issues with counterparts from "democratic countries" [1]. - Suzuki expressed concerns about Japan's reliance on Chinese rare earths, stating that without action, China would continue to pose a threat to Japan's economy [1][5]. - The Japanese government aims to create a rare earth market composed of "normal democratic countries and market economies" [1]. Group 2: China's Response and Economic Impact - China has implemented export controls on dual-use products to Japan and initiated anti-dumping investigations on certain Japanese imports [5]. - Analysts estimate that if China restricts rare earth exports to Japan for three months, it could result in a loss of approximately 660 billion yen, impacting Japan's nominal and real GDP by 0.11% [7]. - If the restrictions last for a year, the losses could escalate to 2.6 trillion yen, leading to a 0.43% decrease in GDP [7]. Group 3: Broader Implications and Market Reactions - The G7 countries, including Japan, have not abandoned plans to intervene in rare earth pricing, with discussions about setting a price floor and imposing tariffs on Chinese exports [2]. - UBS analysts noted that if rare earths are included in trade restrictions, the impact would be widespread, particularly affecting the automotive, electronics, and precision instruments sectors [7]. - Japan's reliance on Chinese heavy rare earths for electric vehicle motors is nearly 100%, indicating significant vulnerability to supply disruptions [7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to MP Materials, expecting a relative increase of over 10% compared to the benchmark index within the next 12-18 months [10]. Core Insights - The rare earth market fundamentals are improving, with potential for more favorable factors and strategic partnerships to emerge [1]. - Recent market pullbacks are viewed as a buying opportunity, as the market is tightening and the government is setting a price floor for rare earth prices [1]. - The company has established a collaboration with the U.S. Department of Defense and is forming a strategic joint venture with Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden to develop a rare earth refining facility [1]. - The demand for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) is expected to grow at an annual rate of 6-8% over the next decade, with supply growth slightly lagging behind this demand [2]. - NdPr prices have increased by nearly 40% year-to-date, driven by strong downstream demand, with further price increases anticipated [2]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - NdPr market fundamentals are robust, with both Chinese and international midstream producers actively expanding [2]. - The price of neodymium oxide is projected to reach $80 per kilogram in 2026, $85 in 2027, and $90 in 2028 [2]. Company Developments - The U.S. Department of Defense has set a price floor of $110 per kilogram for NdPr products, with a profit-sharing mechanism for any price increases above this level [3]. - The company is accelerating its magnet manufacturing capacity in the U.S. from 1,000 tons per year to 10,000 tons per year [3]. Production Guidance - The company expects NdPr concentrate production to remain flat year-over-year in Q4 2025, with a slight increase in NdPr oxide production [4]. - NdPr prices have reached $61 per kilogram in Q4 2025, with expectations for continued cost reductions [4]. - The company plans to start commissioning its new heavy rare earth separation facility in mid-2026, with an annual production capacity of 3,000 tons of dysprosium and terbium [4]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The geopolitical tensions surrounding the rare earth supply chain are viewed as a temporary relief, with China holding 90% of rare earth resources concentrated in two major deposits [4].

近期，韩国联合美国、澳大利亚、以色列、新加坡、日本等国，共同组建了一个技术联盟，意在削弱中 国在全球稀土矿产市场的主导地位。而就在这一系列行动之后，韩国又在蒙古国投资了98亿韩元，设立 了稀有金属研究与实验中心。这个中心将专注于对蒙古境内发现的稀土金属（包括锡、钨、煤等）进行 分析、加工、选矿，并提供精炼技术方面的培训。 可以看出，韩国在此问题上的动作十分迅速，明显有意与印尼、哈萨克斯坦等国合作开发稀土资源，而 蒙古国则是他们迈出的第一步。这个稀有金属研究与实验中心的设立，实际上是韩国为了减少对中国稀 土加工的依赖而采取的战略性举措。通过建立该中心，韩国不仅提供技术培训和设备支持，还帮助蒙古 实现从简单的挖矿到加工的产业升级。这样，等到蒙古具备了初步的加工能力，韩国便可以直接从蒙古 获取半成品，绕开中国的加工环节。 在这一过程中，韩国产业通商资源部负责人郑贡延（音译）在讲话中表示，韩国计划在蒙古、乌兹别克 斯坦、越南、印度尼西亚和哈萨克斯坦等地实施供应项目，并已经在蒙古开设了首个研究中心。 这个计划并非偶然。此前，韩国曾与美国一道，与蒙古建立了三边协商机制，旨在打造一个排除中国的 稀土供应链。如果蒙古的产能能 ...

Group 1 - The US and China have reached a ceasefire agreement, but competition remains, with the US planning to increase tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products by June 2027 [1][3] - The US Trade Representative's office announced the end of the 301 trade investigation into China's semiconductor industry, indicating a temporary concession [1][3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has expressed strong opposition to the US tariffs on semiconductors, urging dialogue to resolve issues and emphasizing mutual respect and cooperation [3][11] Group 2 - Despite the ceasefire, key rare earth products remain difficult to obtain, which is critical for both high-end and low-end chip production [4][6] - The timing of the tariff increase is strategically aligned with the US's efforts to secure rare earth supply chains and diversify sources away from China [8][9] - The US's delay in implementing semiconductor tariffs until 2027 serves as a buffer to maintain the ceasefire with China while bolstering its own rare earth industry [11]

最近中国通报了一起特殊案件，追回了对外走私的近百吨管制金属，"稀土走私"已经越来越困难。与此同时，中国对美订购的13万吨订单被取消，外界揣测 和五角大楼涉台军售有关，但经常在农业贸易问题上表态的特朗普，这回失声了很多天。 最近一个月中国稀土出口领域又有了很多突发情况，首先是日本企业前些天对外抱怨，说从中国进口的稀土已经全部无法审批，中国这边也没给准确日子。 日本记者专程来问，外交部并没有给明确答复。 日媒大致也猜到，事情很可能和高市早苗对台错误言论有关系，只要她不撤回稀土进口恐怕是免谈。这段时间，日本联合美国等9个国家也签了稀土协议， 准备"长期摆脱对中国供应链"，但远水解不了近渴，日本缺土的情况还是没有任何缓解，日企急得团团转。 在日本正面临困境的时候，中国商务部发言人在18日公布消息，表示已经收到并批准了部分中国出口商提交的通用许可申请。该消息披露之后，外媒一度认 为"日本得到了出口的机会"，日企情况好起来了。 但根据考证，欧盟官员在17日已经确认，中国优化了对欧洲的稀土许可证审批，为进口稀土减少限制。所以现在情况很明显：中国所说的最大可能是欧洲而 不是日本，日企想进口稀土恐怕现在还是"白高兴"一场而已。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the rare earth supply chain agreement by the U.S. and its allies is primarily a strategic move to challenge China's dominance in the rare earth sector, rather than a simple resource cooperation initiative [1][3][8]. Group 1: Political Intentions - The agreement is seen as a U.S.-led action aimed at weakening China's advantages in resources, technology, and supply chains [3][8]. - The U.S. is anxious about China's overwhelming control over the global rare earth industry, with 91% of rare earth refining and separation capacity concentrated in China [3][10]. - The U.S. aims to establish a supply chain that bypasses China, laying the groundwork for future competition in AI [8][10]. Group 2: Implications for AI and Technology - The U.S. government links the rare earth supply chain to the AI industry, indicating that control over rare earth resources is crucial for competing in AI [10][13]. - The U.S. recognizes that without a stable supply of rare earths, advancements in AI technology cannot be realized [13][15]. - The agreement is expected to benefit U.S. mining, military, and tech sectors, ensuring a stable supply chain for high-tech industries over the next decade [17][20]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The agreement signifies a shift in global technology dynamics, where control over core resources will be as important as technological advancement [20][21]. - The U.S. is attempting to create a closed-loop supply chain with like-minded allies, injecting political factors into the industry chain [22][26]. - China's response emphasizes the importance of market principles and cooperation, highlighting its critical role in stabilizing the global rare earth supply chain [23][25]. Group 4: Future Competition - The competition between the U.S. and China in key minerals and AI is expected to continue, with China's rare earth advantages stemming from years of industrial accumulation [26][28]. - The outcome of this geopolitical struggle will depend on the strength and completeness of each country's supply chain rather than the size of their political alliances [28].

中日稀土博弈再升级！日本工业命脉被精准"卡"在审批单上 【前言】 当高市早苗的激进言论撞上中国稀土大棒，日本工业界突然发现——他们的生产线，正被一纸审批单"卡"在咽喉。从丰田的电机生产线到索尼的精密仪器， 从铃木的汽车零件到日立的风电设备，所有依赖稀土的关键环节，都在这场没有硝烟的博弈中瑟瑟发抖。这不是科幻片里的资源战争，而是2025年真实上演 的中日经济对决，一招"掐脉"，让日本政府坐立不安。 审批单上的"停滞术"：日企的集体焦虑 11月7日，高市早苗针对台湾问题发表挑衅言论后48小时，日本企业界掀起一场"审批风暴"。东京某电子元件厂负责人山田俊介在采访中透露："过去递交的 出口申请，通常3-5个工作日就能获批，现在至少要等两周，甚至更久。"这种"定格式停滞"并非个例——从大阪到名古屋，从汽车制造到半导体封装，超过 80%的日企反映对华出口审批周期拉长，部分关键材料供应出现断档风险。 数据不会说谎。日本贸易振兴机构统计显示，2025年11月，日本对华出口审批平均耗时较去年同期延长42%，其中稀土相关产品审批延迟率高达68%。更值 得玩味的是，这种变化恰恰发生在高市早苗言论发酵期——日本媒体将此称为"外交钟摆 ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%[9] - There is increasing internal disagreement within the Fed regarding inflation and employment risks, with 3 out of 12 officials voting against the rate cut[9] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January 2026 is 24.4% according to CME FedWatch[11] Economic Data - The U.S. JOLTS job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, the highest in five months, while initial jobless claims increased by 44,000, marking the largest rise since 2020[17] - The U.S. fiscal deficit decreased, with November fiscal revenue up 23.75% year-on-year, while spending decreased by 23.82%[17] - Japan's Q3 GDP was revised down from -1.8% to -2.3%, indicating a more significant economic contraction than previously expected[25] Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 5 basis points to 4.19%[27] - European bond markets saw overall declines, with the 10-year UK bond yield increasing by 3.9 basis points to 4.52% and the German yield rising by 7 basis points to 2.85%[27] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan increased by 0.68% year-to-date, reflecting a 27.43% annual growth[6]