主论坛环节，中国宏观经济学会副会长祝宝良发表了关于《2026年我国宏观经济形势和政策取向》 的主题演讲。他指出，当前，我国的潜在经济增长速度仍在5%左右。建议把推动物价合理回升和经济 增长5%左右作为2026年经济调控目标。2026年，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，不断深化改革、扩大开放，着力扩大内需，着力增强微观主体活力，着 力稳定市场主体信心，推动经济稳中向好。 中信证券海外宏观首席分析师崔嵘及其团队对全球经济走势作出研判。他们认为，2025年关税波折 扰乱全球经济，预计2026年海外宏观面将迎来一段暂时的清朗期：一是清朗的基本面，包括地缘、财 政、货币政策的不确定性下降，美欧日经济增长将适度加速，以及通胀担忧趋于回落至"舒适区"；二是 在资产配置端要保持一份清醒。展望2026年，预计全球降息潮在幅度上可能将低于2025年，同时美元在 上半年波折后将转强，二者叠加可能导致全球金融市场流动性不及2025年，总体风险资产的回报率低于 2025年。具体资产来看，仍看好AI行业，并维持对黄金和工业金属的超配建议。 11月26日，以"破浪前行，扬帆起航"为主题的中信期货 ...

从公布的广期所合约挂牌基准价来看，基本与伦敦现货价格保持平水（铂：1570/31.1035*7.1*1.13=405 元/克；钯：1412-31.1035*7.1*1.13=364 元/克）。长期来看，铂钯作为贵金属走势和黄金白银呈现 出较高的正相关性，需求结构又决定其宏观金融属性和工业属性将同时反映在盘面波动中，因此波动 弹性上又与白银的接近。目前基本从走势看铂钯期货价格走势将跟随外盘价格，预期在美联储 12 月降 息升温情况下，价格将震荡上行。考虑到期货上市首日价格波动可能较大，策略上建议主力合约以逢 低谨慎做多为主，铂金上方阻力位在 425 元/克，钯金阻力位在 390 元/克，远月合约若出现大幅升水 可以把握价差修复机会。 一、供需基本面——铂钯供不应求格局或将缓解 根据 WPIC 数据，2025 年前三季度累计供应量为 517 万盎司，需求为 601 万盎司，录得约 84 万盎 司（26 吨）的缺口。今年铂金供应较 2024 年同期下滑 4.4%，主要由于南非、俄罗斯和津巴布韦等主 要产区矿产供应持续收缩产量低于去年同期，尽管回收供应有所增长却未能弥补缺口。铂金全球需求 今年较 2024 年同期略降 ...

异动点评：美联储降息预期反转贵金属重拾涨势 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格编号：Z0016628） | 2025年FOMC票委派别 | 官员最新观点 | | --- | --- | | 台灣成 | 米兰:数据支持降息,美联储应更加偏鸽 | | | 沃勒：支持在美联储12月会议上再次"预防性"降息25个BP | | | 鲍曼:支持继续降息以应对劳动力市场放缓及经济增长趋弱的局势 | | 障 科成 | 施密德：认为进一步的降息对缓解劳动力市场的任何压力作用不大，这些压力更可能来自技术和移民政策的 | | | 结构件变化, 但降息可能对通胀产生更持久的影响 | | | 穆萨莱姆:随着政策利率接近中性利率,美联储需要保持谨慎 | | | 古尔斯比：或许不愿继续降息周期，在通胀数据缺席的情况下对降息更感不安，需要保持谨慎 | | 中间派 | 鲍威尔:12月降息并非既定结论,受美国政府持续停摆影响,数据获取受限存在不确定性 | | | 威廉姆斯：美联储 "石坑期"仍有进一步下调联邦基金利率区间的空间,以使政策立场更接近中性水平。就 | | | 业走弱的风险上升,而通胀恶化的风险已 ...

Core Insights - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Asset Management Association of China jointly released a draft guideline for performance comparison benchmarks for publicly offered securities investment funds, emphasizing precise matching principles for equity, bond, and index funds [1] Equity Funds - The new rules stipulate that broad-based indices or corresponding strategy indices will serve as benchmarks for all market stock selection strategy products, limiting the use of thematic indices [1] - As of November 8, 2025, there are 5,385 actively managed equity funds that have shown excess returns, with 1,915 funds outperforming their benchmarks, representing 35.56% of the total [2] Fund Performance Rankings Top Performing Funds - In the top 10 equity mixed funds, the threshold for excess return over the benchmark is set at 92.61%, with the highest performer managed by 华夏基金, achieving a return of 269.38% [3][6] - The top three funds in the equity mixed category are managed by 华夏基金, 中信建投基金, and 汇添富基金 [3] Ordinary Stock Funds - The top 10 ordinary stock funds have a minimum excess return threshold of 61.6%, with notable managers including 张仲维 from 景顺长城基金 [9][13] Flexible Allocation Funds - The top 10 flexible allocation funds have the highest threshold for excess returns at 123.29%, with 刘元海 from 东吴基金 leading with a return of 217.81% [15][19] Balanced Mixed Funds - The top 10 balanced mixed funds have a minimal excess return threshold of 0.54%, with multiple products from 南方基金 and 易方达基金 making the list [20][22]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is making strides to break China's dominance in the rare earth market, as highlighted by U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra's visit to a new rare earth processing plant in South Carolina, which is part of efforts to secure critical mineral supply chains for clean energy and national defense [3][5]. Group 1: U.S. Rare Earth Initiatives - The eVAC Magnetics company, which is establishing a rare earth processing facility, received $112 million in support from the Biden administration, indicating a significant governmental push towards reducing reliance on Chinese rare earth supplies [7]. - Becerra claimed that the facility represents the first rare earth magnet produced in the U.S. in 25 years, marking a pivotal step towards supply chain independence [5][9]. - Despite the optimistic outlook, analysts express skepticism regarding the feasibility of the U.S. breaking China's rare earth monopoly, given the complexities involved in rare earth processing and the significant investment required [9][11]. Group 2: Challenges in Competing with China - The eVAC company, while American, is actually a joint venture with a German parent company, raising questions about the extent of U.S. manufacturing capabilities [7]. - Establishing a fully operational rare earth supply chain in the U.S. is projected to require at least $10 billion in investment and could take 10 to 20 years to develop a competitive edge against China [11][13]. - China's established and comprehensive rare earth industry, along with its cost advantages, poses a significant challenge for U.S. companies attempting to enter the market [11][13]. Group 3: Political and Media Dynamics - Becerra's statements are viewed as politically motivated, aimed at attracting investment to the eVAC company and promoting the narrative of U.S. independence from Chinese supply chains [13][15]. - Media coverage has largely focused on the positive aspects of U.S. efforts to secure rare earth supplies, often overlooking the substantial challenges and current limitations faced by the U.S. rare earth industry [15].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a positive trend, with the main copper futures contract rising by 1.27% to 86,070.00 yuan/ton [1] - Macro factors include a proposal by several European countries in collaboration with Ukraine to end the war with Russia, supervised by a peace committee led by Trump, which has led to a decrease in market risk aversion and a subsequent drop in gold and silver prices, impacting copper prices [1] - The copper mining sector is experiencing disturbances that limit the decline in copper prices, with previous incidents in Indonesian copper mines still providing support, and current copper concentrate port inventories significantly lower year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Consumption in traditional industries is slowing down, but there are high expectations for increased copper consumption in the renewable energy and AI sectors, although high copper prices may suppress downstream consumption in the short term [1] - Looking ahead, there is optimism in the market regarding trade agreements due to Trump's planned visit to China, which has strengthened the dollar and put pressure on copper prices [2] - The copper price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 84,000 to 86,000 yuan, with caution advised regarding changes in the refined copper demand due to variations in the refined-to-scrap copper price ratio [2]

Group 1: International Gold Prices - In September, international gold prices increased by over 10%, marking the largest monthly gain in 14 years, with a total increase of 10.16% for the month [2] - On September 30, international gold prices reached a new closing historical high, with December gold futures closing at $3,873.2 per ounce, up by 0.47% [1][2] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Performance - In September, major U.S. stock indices collectively rose, driven by better-than-expected earnings reports from key listed companies and optimism in the AI sector, with the Dow Jones increasing by 1.87%, the S&P 500 rising by 3.53%, and the Nasdaq gaining 5.61% [5] Group 3: European Stock Market Performance - European stock indices also saw gains, with the UK GDP growing by 1.4% year-on-year in Q2 and Germany's CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month, contributing to positive investor sentiment [8] - On September 30, the UK stock market rose by 0.54%, France by 0.19%, and Germany by 0.57% [8] Group 4: Oil Market Trends - International oil prices declined in September, with U.S. crude oil prices dropping by 2.56% and Brent crude prices falling by 1.61%, influenced by expectations of increased production from OPEC+ and signs of weak demand in U.S. oil inventory data [11]

Group 1 - The central bank announced a package of ten policy measures, including a comprehensive reduction of the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and a decrease in the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations [3] - The four major first-tier cities have simultaneously lowered the housing provident fund loan interest rates, signaling continued easing in the real estate market to stimulate demand [3][4] - Several funds have seen gains exceeding 40%, with a focus on the robotics and innovative drug sectors, indicating strong investor interest in these areas [3][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, aligning with market expectations [6] - Moody's warned of increasing risks to the retail sector due to rising exposure to private credit, highlighting a shift in the credit market since the pandemic [6] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced adjustments, with technology stocks generally underperforming, while bank and power stocks showed strength, resulting in an overall increase in major indices [8] - The total number of newly issued bank wealth management products reached 513, with a total establishment scale of approximately 41.7 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease from the previous week [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a robust growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 239 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%, and a net profit of 63 million yuan, up 21.99% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1]. - Demand for high-end products continues to rise, with the company enhancing its market share in the global integrated circuit industry and launching various new products to meet customer needs [6]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with significant investments in advanced materials for integrated circuits, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 712 million yuan in 2023, 960 million yuan in 2024, and 1.225 billion yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 35%, and 28% respectively [2][12]. - The company's net profit is projected to be 174 million yuan in 2023, 251 million yuan in 2024, and 320 million yuan in 2025, with corresponding growth rates of -8%, 44%, and 27% [2][12]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 60.1 for 2023, decreasing to 21.2 by 2027, indicating a potential for valuation improvement as earnings grow [2][13]. Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 56.29 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 10.5 billion yuan [3]. - The stock has shown a performance of -2% over the past month, 8% over six months, and 26% over the past year [5]. Product and Market Development - The company is focusing on high-end semiconductor packaging materials, which account for over 90% of its core downstream applications [6]. - New product lines are being developed to cater to the growing demands of the AI industry, particularly in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) packaging [6].