Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that personal income and spending data for October and November 2025 will be released on January 22 at 10 AM (Beijing time 11 PM) [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics has not released complete CPI data for October, and the Economic Analysis Bureau will estimate the missing CPI data using the average of September and November CPI figures in the October personal income and spending report [1] - The initial estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter and the entire year of 2025 will be published on February 20 at 8:30 AM (Beijing time 9:30 PM) [1] Group 2 - The personal income and spending report for December 2025 will also be released on February 20 at 8:30 AM [1] - The previously scheduled release of the final GDP estimate for the fourth quarter and the entire year of 2025, as well as the January personal income and spending report, will be rescheduled due to the inability to obtain sufficient source data before the original release date [1]

Group 1 - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has significantly increased to 81% following statements from Waller and Daly [2] - A series of economic data releases this week, including retail sales, employment indicators, and core PCE, will be crucial in influencing policy direction and market sentiment [2] - If economic data continues to show weakness, expectations for an early rate cut will be further reinforced, potentially increasing bets on this outcome [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is gradually reintroducing easing policies while ending the balance sheet reduction process, providing strong support for the stability of the U.S. Treasury market [3] - Despite the Fed's cautious approach to loosening policies amid high inflation, this stance has somewhat maintained market confidence in the Fed's commitment to a 2% inflation target [3] - The U.S. Treasury market, valued at nearly $30 trillion, holds a unique position in the global financial system, emphasizing the importance of the dollar's credibility [3] Group 3 - Gold prices opened at $4133, dipped to $4122, and then rebounded to $4155 before entering a correction phase [4] - The technical analysis indicates that if gold prices stabilize in the 20-30 range and rebound, the 55-60 area will be a critical resistance level [4] - A successful breakout above the 60 level could lead to accelerated gains for gold, potentially reaching the 80-90 high [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent end of the U.S. federal government shutdown has reignited concerns about market valuations, with investors closely monitoring upcoming economic data releases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [2][3]. Economic Data and Market Reactions - The September employment report is expected to be the first significant data release post-shutdown, as it was believed to be compiled before the government closure [3]. - Following the end of the 43-day shutdown, various economic data releases are anticipated, including manufacturing surveys from the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Banks [4]. - The upcoming earnings reports from major companies like Nvidia, Walmart, and Target will provide insights into consumer demand in the U.S. [4]. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Investors are adopting a cautious stance due to uncertainties surrounding the timing and reliability of key economic data, particularly employment figures, which may affect the Fed's decision on interest rates in December [3][6]. - Current market pricing indicates an almost even split between expectations for a rate cut and maintaining the current rate in December [3]. Oil and Gold Markets - International oil prices have risen due to supply disruptions from Russia, with WTI crude oil increasing by 0.57% to $60.09 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 1.19% to $64.39 per barrel [5]. - The gold market saw a rise of 2.21%, with COMEX gold futures reaching $4087.60 per ounce, as investors weigh the prospects of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [5]. European Economic Outlook - The European Union's autumn economic outlook report is set to be released, with a focus on the latest purchasing managers' index (PMI) data from France, Germany, and the Eurozone [9]. - Upcoming data releases in the Eurozone include Germany's producer price index (PPI) and the Eurozone's consumer confidence index [8][10].

Group 1 - The agreement officially ends a 43-day government shutdown, allowing federal operations to resume until January 30, 2026 [1] - Market focus is shifting towards the backlog of economic data, which will quickly test the current monetary policy outlook [1] Group 2 - Key missing reports: Federal agencies will begin releasing two months of lagging data, including September and October Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) and October Consumer Price Index (CPI) [2] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is expected to release NFP data within 2-5 business days after resuming operations, potentially as early as this weekend or more likely early next week [2] - The rapid release of economic data will challenge the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, with market attention on whether the data indicates a weak labor market (supporting a rate cut in December) or persistent inflation (limiting easing) [2] Group 3 - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market expects a 66.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, a significant drop from 92% a month ago [3] Group 4 - The resolution of the government shutdown and the upcoming lagging economic data have led to increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [4] - The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is maintaining a consolidation around 99.00, with a technical bias still leaning towards bullish due to expectations of the Federal Reserve's policy remaining unchanged and future policy uncertainty [5] Group 5 - The USDX is expected to continue consolidating before the upcoming data provides clearer direction, with the 99.00-100.00 range being a critical testing zone for potential breakouts [8] Group 6 - Despite a slight weakening of the dollar, the USD/JPY pair has seen a small increase, indicating that the pair is correcting from last week's temporary strength due to risk aversion [9] - As the U.S. government shutdown nears its end, the main drivers for yen demand are diminishing, pushing USD/JPY back into bullish momentum [9] Group 7 - Gold prices have continued to rise this week, driven by uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, a weaker dollar, and the diminishing risk of a government shutdown [12] - As of now, gold prices have increased by over 5% this week, with investors reallocating to alternative safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, anticipating that the upcoming data flood may challenge the Federal Reserve's policy stance [12] Group 8 - Technically, gold has continued to rise after breaking above $4,200, with recent resistance in the $4,180-$4,200 range, indicating a potential breakout [15] - If gold prices maintain a solid breakout above $4,200, it could signal a bullish opportunity, while a pullback near resistance may present a buying opportunity, with recent support around $4,135 [15] Group 9 - The market is expected to remain highly volatile on Thursday, with investors repricing in the context of the U.S. government reopening while awaiting the release of lagging economic data [16] - The dollar is anticipated to maintain a range-bound pattern, with resistance at 100 and support at 99, sustaining a short-term consolidation phase [16] - Gold remains bullish in the current market environment, but caution is advised as prices approach the critical $4,200 level; a solid breakout could lead to further upward movement, while resistance may result in short-term consolidation or pullback [16]

Group 1: Silver Market Overview - COMEX silver inventory recorded at 14,873.44 tons on November 12, a decrease of 11.39 tons from the previous day [1][2] - COMEX silver price closed at $53.27 per ounce on November 12, up 4.29%, with an intraday high of $53.63 and a low of $50.76 [1] Group 2: Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The U.S. Senate passed a compromise bill to end a 41-day government shutdown, which disrupted food benefits for millions and caused significant delays in air travel [2] - The shutdown affected approximately 6% of flights nationwide on November 11, with over 1,100 cancellations and 850 delays reported [2] - The Federal Aviation Administration indicated that flight reduction percentages would increase to 8% on November 13 and 10% on November 14 due to staffing shortages [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing government shutdown may lead to the permanent impairment of critical economic data collection, affecting key reports such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and nonfarm payrolls, which are essential for policymakers and investors [2][3]. Economic Data Impact - Key economic reports for October, including the monthly nonfarm payrolls and consumer index, may not be released due to the government shutdown, which has lasted over six weeks, the longest in history [2][3]. - Other affected data includes retail sales, import and export statistics, as well as consumer spending and income [3]. Implications for Policymakers - The inability to access critical government data hampers the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions during a crucial economic period, leaving them "flying blind" [2][4]. - Wall Street economists had anticipated that the data would eventually be released, albeit with delays, but recent comments from White House officials have cast doubt on this expectation [3].

Key Insights - The current federal government shutdown lacks a debt ceiling component, which reduces immediate risks compared to past shutdowns [6][7] - Economic data releases are delayed or postponed, impacting market navigation and decision-making for investors [6][8] - The U.S. Treasury market is expected to operate normally without concerns over redemptions or new issuances due to the increased debt ceiling [7][8] Economic Data - Major economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are likely to be delayed if the shutdown continues [6][8] - Investors may need to rely on alternative private data sources, such as ISM and S&P Global PMI, until official data is released [13] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is not expected to cut rates during the current FOMC meeting despite the shutdown, maintaining a focus on risk management [13] - The UST 10-Year yield is anticipated to remain stable until economic data resumes [13]

Group 1 - Senator Warren urges the government to release the September employment report despite the government shutdown, emphasizing its importance for the Federal Reserve's decision-making on interest rates [1][2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reportedly completed the collection of September labor data, and the employment report is likely ready for release if the government reopens [1][2] - The government shutdown is causing a disruption in the release of key economic data, leading to a reliance on alternative data sources, such as the ADP report, which indicates a significant decline in private sector employment [2][3] Group 2 - The monthly employment report is considered one of the most critical economic data points in the U.S., especially amid concerns over a weakening job market and rising unemployment [3] - The White House attributes the government shutdown to the Democrats, claiming it undermines the economy and disrupts timely public data essential for decision-making by businesses and policymakers [3]

Group 1 - Gold futures have turned lower after reaching new highs for five consecutive sessions, with today's close being the third-highest in gold's history [1] - The market is experiencing a pause as gold prices approach $4,000 per troy ounce, indicating a potential consolidation phase [1] - Traders are on edge due to the ongoing government shutdown and its implications for data releases, highlighting the sensitivity of the market to political developments [1] Group 2 - In the absence of significant upcoming economic data, traders are expected to closely monitor oil prices and U.S. government developments [2]

Core Points - The Labor Department is preparing for a potential government shutdown, which would lead to a suspension of operations and a significant impact on economic data releases [1][2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will halt all operations, meaning scheduled economic data releases will not occur during the shutdown [2] - Key reports that may be affected include the monthly nonfarm payrolls report and the initial jobless claims report, both critical for assessing job growth trends [2] - The consumer price index, a vital inflation indicator, is scheduled for release on October 15, which is the last reading before the Federal Reserve's meeting on October 28-29 [3]