中辉有色观点 金银：鲍威尔释放利好，金银上涨 | | | 资料来源：Wind，中辉期货 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 鲍威尔讲话超预期，市场上涨，但是短期也缺乏向上的集中性风险事件爆发，中长 | | | 反弹做多 | 期，主要国家货币政策宽松，央行继续买黄金，地缘格局重塑，黄金有资产配置需 | | ★ | | 求。长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | 白银 | | 情绪积极，白银跟随上涨。美国财政货币双宽政策积极，中长期全球流动性和各国 | | ★ | 反弹做多 | 再工业化需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。由于弹性大，噪音影响 明显。短期关注前高 9500 附近表现。 | | | | 鲍威尔超预期放鸽，美元走弱铜价反弹，短期建议铜多单持有，中长期，铜作为中 | | 铜 ★ | 多单持有 | 美博弈的重要战略资源，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发，对铜长期看好。 | | | | 隔夜受宏观和板块情绪影响，锌止跌反弹，但需求淡季，锌精矿供应增加，下游需 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 求疲软，锌上方空间或有限，关注上方缺口回补情况。中长期看锌供增需减 ...

1. Report Investment Ratings for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold and silver, short - term "stop - falling and try to go long", long - term strategic allocation for gold and long - term long for silver [1] - For copper, short - term "buy on dips", long - term optimistic [1][8] - For zinc, lead, tin, and nickel, short - term "under pressure", long - term for zinc "sell on rallies" [1] - For aluminum, short - term "rebound" [1] - For industrial silicon, short - term "rebound under pressure" [1] - For polysilicon, "high - level consolidation", buy on dips [1] - For lithium carbonate, "high - level consolidation", hold long positions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US data is mixed, and there is a lack of new drivers in the short - term, leading to market consolidation [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: Focus on Powell's speech; US data is mixed; in the short - term, it's hard for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 766 in the short - term, and long positions can be considered after stabilization; silver has support at 9100 in the short - term [5] 3.2 Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range [6][7] - **Industrial Logic**: There are recent disturbances in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. Refined copper production may decline marginally in the future. Currently in the off - season, but demand is expected to pick up. Overall, copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the Fed officials' hawkish remarks, it is recommended to buy copper on dips. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper [78000, 80000] yuan/ton and LME copper [9650, 9950] dollars/ton [6][8] 3.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuates weakly, testing the lower support level [9][10][11] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is rising, and smelters' enthusiasm for production is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the off - season, zinc fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous short positions. In the long - term, sell on rallies. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc [22000, 22600] and LME zinc [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [10][12] 3.4 Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices stabilize and rebound, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [13][14] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory in the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [13][16] 3.5 Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices run weakly, and stainless steel is under pressure [17][18] - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, the production of refined nickel has increased, and the inventory has accumulated again. The effect of stainless steel production cuts on inventory reduction is weakening, and there is still an oversupply pressure in the off - season [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of downstream inventory. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [17][20] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens slightly lower, rises and then falls, and closes slightly down [21][22] - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are negative news, the supply is expected to contract unexpectedly. With the arrival of the peak demand season, downstream factories start to stock up. The inventory structure is fragile, and the price is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of [82000 - 85000] [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market turns to expect a September rate cut after digesting short - term bearish sentiment, geopolitical easing, and Powell's potentially hawkish views. Gold and silver are recommended for short - term bottom - fishing and long - term strategic allocation. Copper is recommended for short - term dip - buying and long - term bullish outlook. Zinc is expected to rebound in the short - term and be shorted on rallies in the long - term. Lead is under short - term pressure. Tin and aluminum are under short - term pressure for rebounds. Nickel is under short - term pressure. Industrial silicon rebounds, while polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in high - level oscillations [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Bearish sentiment is partially digested, showing short - term signs of stopping the decline. Attention is paid to Powell's speech on Friday [4]. - **Basic Logic**: There is a divergence of opinions among Fed officials on a September rate cut. The UK's inflation rate in July reached a new high in 18 months, weakening the market's expectation of a rate cut. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, it may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may be supported around 766, and long - term orders can be considered after stabilization. Silver is more volatile in the short - term, and attention is paid to the effectiveness of support around 9000. Attention is also paid to the meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine [6]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range with converging volatility [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are disturbances in copper mines recently, the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. The production of refined copper may decrease marginally in August - September due to increased smelting maintenance. It is currently the off - season for consumption, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. The overall copper supply and demand are in a tight balance throughout the year [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try buying copper on dips. In the long - term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the China - US game. The focus ranges are [78000, 80000] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton for London copper [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds, getting support from the lower moving average [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrate is abundant in 2025. The production of refined zinc is expected to increase in August. On the demand side, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The domestic zinc social and exchange inventories are accumulating, and the downstream is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to partially take profit on previous short positions. In the long - term, short zinc on rallies. The focus ranges are [22000, 22600] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton for London zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, while alumina shows a slight stabilizing trend [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are still uncertainties in overseas macro - trade policies. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry has decreased, and the inventory has increased slightly. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term, and attention is paid to overseas bauxite changes [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the inventory changes of aluminum ingots during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are weak, and stainless steel is under pressure and declining [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - environment is still uncertain. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and the production of refined nickel has increased with accumulated inventory. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and it still faces over - supply pressure during the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 gaps down and hits the daily limit down [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: Negative news impacts the market, but the corresponding production cannot make up for the gap. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, but with the approaching peak season of terminal demand, the inventory structure may amplify price elasticity. The main contract is expected to rise further after the strengthening of the de - stocking expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of [80000 - 85000] [24].

Group 1 - Precious metal prices experienced a pullback after reaching a high, with COMEX gold futures dropping 3.14% to $3381.7 per ounce, marking a near two-week low [1] - The U.S. added non-farm payrolls were significantly revised downwards, maintaining expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with the number of expected cuts for the year rising to around three [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will open a rate cut window in September, providing some support for gold prices [1] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data released showed a rebound in producer inflation, which slightly reduced the probability of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Russia are intensifying the bullish and bearish dynamics in the precious metals market, with potential outcomes affecting gold price movements [1] - Long-term factors such as the gradual opening of the Federal Reserve's rate cut window, persistent U.S. twin deficits, and declining dollar credibility are expected to provide solid support for gold prices [1]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美俄乌会面在即，美国 9 月份降息概率几成定局，短期盘面止跌后盘整。中长期 G2 | | | 止跌做多 | 大国货币政策宽松，央行继续买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性低，资产配置需要。 | | ★ | | 长期黄金继续战略配置。谨防短期特朗普普京会面对盘面冲击【770-788】 | | 白银 | | 白银逻辑不变，流动性影响白银涨幅更多，中长期美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松 | | ★★ | 反弹做多 | 财政刺激等支撑作用明显，工业需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。 | | | | 短期白银品种弹性较大，短期试多长期做多。【9150-9400】 | | | | 宏观利好兑现后，市场情绪降温，商品大面积飘绿，需求淡季海外铜库存累库，国 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 内铜社会库存相对偏紧，铜高位盘整，建议前期多单继续持有，部分可止盈兑现， | | ★★ | | | | | | 中长期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【78000，80000】 | | 锌 | | 伦锌仓单紧张，锌外强内弱，短期需 ...

5 月 15 日盘中， 金价大幅跳水。 最近这段时间，价格波动最大的资产就是黄金了。 现货黄金最低下探至 3120 美元 / 盎司，日内跌幅一度接近 1.8% ； COMEX 黄金期货一度跌超 2% ，最低触及 3123 美元 / 盎司。随后金价出现反弹。 要知道，上个月黄金涨得最猛的时候，现货黄金最高一度涨到了 3500 美元 / 盎司。短短两周时间，黄金 价格就跌了将近 400 美元 / 盎司，妥妥的大跳水行情。 现在的黄金价格，相当于是把对等关税短暂实施期间的涨幅全部跌了回去。 黄金能涨，靠的就是全球经济的不确定性，尤其是老美的不确定性。 那在关税顺利协商、不确定性告一段落之后，黄金价格是不是就没有了支撑涨到头了呢？ 对于接下来黄金价格的走势，我们的观点也很明确： 黄金的调整，只是短期的； 黄金价格，接下来还会有长牛行情。 首先我们要知道这一轮黄金行情不是开始于今年，而是开始于 2022 年 7 月之后。 从 2022 年下半年开始，黄金的行情启动， 从1900美元 / 盎司涨到了如今的3100 美元 / 盎司，涨幅达到了 63%。 所以黄金的牛市，不是开始于2025年，只是因为最近懂王的关税，涨得太疯 ...

最近这段时间，价格波动最大的资产就是黄金了。 5 月 15 日盘中， 金价大幅跳水。 现货黄金最低下探至 3120 美元 / 盎司，日内跌幅一度接近 1.8% ； COMEX 黄金期货一度跌超 2% ，最低触及 3123 美元 / 盎司。随后金价出现反弹。 要知道，上个月黄金涨得最猛的时候，现货黄金最高一度涨到了 3500 美元 / 盎司。短短两周时间，黄金 价格就跌了将近 400 美元 / 盎司，妥妥的大跳水行情。 现在的黄金价格，相当于是把对等关税短暂实施期间的涨幅全部跌了回去。 黄金能涨，靠的就是全球经济的不确定性，尤其是老美的不确定性。 那在关税顺利协商、不确定性告一段落之后，黄金价格是不是就没有了支撑涨到头了呢？ 对于接下来黄金价格的走势，我们的观点也很明确： 黄金的调整，只是短期的； 黄金价格，接下来还会有长牛行情。 首先我们要知道这一轮黄金行情不是开始于今年，而是开始于 2022 年 7 月之后。 从 2022 年下半年开始，黄金的行情启动， 从1900美元 / 盎司涨到了如今的3100 美元 / 盎司，涨幅达到了 63%。 所以黄金的牛市，不是开始于2025年，只是因为最近懂王的关税，涨得太疯 ...

最近这段时间，价格波动最大的资产就是黄金了。 5 月 15 日盘中， 金价大幅跳水。 现货黄金最低下探至 3120 美元 / 盎司，日内跌幅一度接近 1.8% ； COMEX 黄金期货一度跌超 2% ，最低触及 3123 美元 / 盎司。随后金价出现反弹。 要知道，上个月黄金涨得最猛的时候，现货黄金最高一度涨到了 3500 美元 / 盎司。短短两周时间，黄金 价格就跌了将近 400 美元 / 盎司，妥妥的大跳水行情。 现在的黄金价格，相当于是把对等关税短暂实施期间的涨幅全部跌了回去。 那在关税顺利协商、不确定性告一段落之后，黄金价格是不是就没有了支撑涨到头了呢？ 所以黄金的牛市，不是开始于2025年，只是因为最近懂王的关税，涨得太疯狂，才让市场开始看到黄金 夸张的价格走向。 对于接下来黄金价格的走势，我们的观点也很明确： 为什么黄金会在2022年下半年之后持续上涨？ 黄金的调整，只是短期的； 有几个关键的推动因素。 黄金价格，接下来还会有长牛行情。 首先我们要知道这一轮黄金行情不是开始于今年，而是开始于 2022 年 7 月之后。 从 2022 年下半年开始，黄金的行情启动， 从1900美元 / 盎司涨到了如 ...

Group 1 - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to renewed risk aversion driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. fiscal health, with gold surpassing $3,300 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. government's trade policies, particularly the proposed tariffs on the EU, have negatively impacted U.S. stock indices, leading to a decline in major tech stocks [2] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. fiscal stability, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4] Group 2 - Copper and oil prices have also risen significantly due to geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, with WTI crude oil settling at $61.53 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.78 per barrel [3] - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in production, which may influence oil prices further, while the copper market has seen a price increase of over 5% in May [3] - The short-term impact of U.S. tariffs on metal exports is becoming evident, but low inventory levels are providing some support for metal prices [4]

Group 1 - Recent volatility in the US Treasury market has been exacerbated by Moody's third downgrade of the US credit rating, raising concerns about debt sustainability as the debt-to-interest payment ratio is projected to rise from 73% in 2024 to 78% by 2035, significantly higher than that of peer sovereign nations [1][2] - The auction of Japan's 20-year bonds saw the lowest demand since 2012, indicating potential liquidity risks in the bond market, while the US faces a projected interest expenditure of $951 billion in 2024, accounting for 17% of federal spending [1][2] - The global trend of de-dollarization is evident as emerging market central banks continue to increase gold holdings, with a forecast of 1,136 tons purchased in 2024, marking a historical high [2][3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has initiated a comprehensive review of its monetary policy framework, emphasizing an "anti-inflation priority" and adjusting its approach to the relationship between employment and inflation targets [3][4] - The Fed's new framework suggests a reduced likelihood of preemptive rate hikes before the labor market overheats, focusing instead on inflation performance [3][4] - Market expectations for the timing of the first rate cut have diverged, with predictions shifting from June to July, influenced by tariff policies and political dynamics [5][6] Group 3 - The adjustment in the Fed's policy framework reflects its commitment to addressing the "new normal" in the post-pandemic economy, with anticipated rate cuts in 2025, potentially occurring between late Q2 and Q3 [5][6] - The interplay between gold's safe-haven appeal and the Fed's policy expectations is expected to create volatility in the gold market, with key events in June and July being closely monitored [6][7] - The risk of US Treasury market volatility transmitting to global financial markets is a concern, particularly for emerging markets facing increased external debt pressure and rising corporate financing costs [7][8]