中辉有色观点 | | 11 | | No | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I | | 11 | P | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 地缘多点开花，美联储立场反复，短期市场流动性风险偏好较好，美联储或重启 QE， | | | 长线持有 | 世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。印尼提高黄金税率，黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑， | | ★ | | 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期白银与黄金走势逻辑劈叉，白银短期交易交割逻辑，ETF 资金持续涌入。未来市 | | | 长线持有 | 场押注降息持续和供需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做 | | ★★ | | 多逻辑不变 | | | | 美非农数据即将公布，市场情绪谨慎，国内 2026 年铜精矿 TC 长协谈判焦灼，LME | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 注销仓单占比维持 40%高位，隔夜铜跳空高开低走，建议逢高移动止盈，中长期， | | ★ | | 在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景 ...

中辉有色观点 | | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 尽管俄乌谈判进程或向前迈进，但是短期市场流动性风险偏好较好，美联储或重启 | | | 长线持有 | QE，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。印尼提高黄金税率，黄金中长期地缘秩序重 | | ★ | | 塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 国际白银获利离场，盘面走跌。短期白银与黄金走势逻辑劈叉，白银短期交易交割 | | 白银 ★★ | 长线持有 | 逻辑。未来市场押注降息持续和供需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期 | | | | 有利，长期做多逻辑不变 | | | | 甲骨文数据中心竣工延迟，市场担忧 AI 泡沫崩盘，多头积极获利了结，铜高位大幅 | | 铜 | | | | ★ | 长线持有 | 回撤，测试 9 万关口支撑，建议逢高移动止盈，中长期，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需 求爆发背景下对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观情绪转冷，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需双弱，国内 | | 锌 | 承压 | 淡季去库。短期锌高位回落， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Long - term Hold**: Gold, Silver, Copper [1] - **Pressured**: Zinc, Lead, Tin [1] - **Rebound Pressured**: Aluminum [1] - **Weak**: Nickel, Industrial Silicon [1] - **Relatively Strong**: Polysilicon [1] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Lithium Carbonate [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's interest rate decision, geopolitical factors, and policy changes have significant impacts on the prices of various metals. For example, the Fed's December interest rate cut and policy stance shift affect gold and silver prices; Indonesia's gold tax increase supports gold prices in the medium - to - long - term. - The supply - demand relationship of different metals varies. Copper is affected by tight copper concentrate supply and green demand; zinc shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand; aluminum has an over - supply situation in alumina and a slowdown in aluminum ingot destocking. - Different investment strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market conditions, such as long - term holding for gold, silver, and copper, and short - selling on rebounds for zinc [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a key shift in policy stance. Indonesia increased the gold tax rate. There was a short - term "dovish" trading in the market after the Fed's decision, and the Fed announced to start buying short - term Treasury bonds [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The Fed's policy entered a "data - dependent" waiting mode, with internal differences. Indonesia's gold tax policy reduces the supply of low - value - added gold and provides structural support for gold prices. Long - term gold benefits from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Silver has a delivery risk event [2][3]. - **Trading Logic**: Long - term gold has investment value, and for silver, long - term positions can be held while being cautious in the short - term [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, pay attention to the 935 support for domestic gold. Long - term value - based positions should be held. Be vigilant about the high volatility risk of silver in the short - term [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the copper market was in a high - level shock. The prices of various copper products showed different changes, and there were also changes in trading volume, inventory, and basis [4]. - **Industrial Logic**: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight. The CSPT group plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load. High copper prices suppress demand, and the consumption is in the off - season. COMEX copper continues to draw global copper inventories [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, hold copper long positions and set trailing stops when the price rises. In the medium - to - long - term, be optimistic about copper. Short - term, pay attention to the range of 【90000, 95000】 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 【11000, 12000】 US dollars/ton for London copper [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc oscillated in a narrow range at a high level. The prices of zinc products showed a downward trend, and there were changes in trading volume, inventory, and basis [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate continued to decline, and the supply was expected to shrink. Consumption entered the off - season, and the overseas LME zinc inventory increased while the domestic social inventory decreased slightly [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, zinc oscillates at a high level with limited upside space. Sellers can set up short positions at high prices. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of 【22800, 23300】 for Shanghai zinc and 【3000, 3100】 US dollars/ton for London zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price rebounded under pressure, and the alumina market was weak [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: The overseas bauxite shipment has returned to normal, and the alumina surplus continues. The electrolytic aluminum maintains a high operating rate, and the domestic aluminum ingot destocking slows down. The consumption off - season effect is obvious [10][12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, take profits on Shanghai aluminum and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of the aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is 【21500 - 22300】 [13]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price rebounded under pressure, and the stainless - steel market was also under pressure [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The impact of overseas production cuts in Indonesia gradually weakened. The terminal consumption of stainless steel entered the off - season, and the stainless - steel social inventory increased slightly [14][16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless - steel. Pay attention to the change in stainless - steel inventory. The main operating range for nickel is 【115000 - 118000】 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went high, with increased positions and volume, rising more than 2% [19]. - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has declined for 16 consecutive weeks. The terminal demand remains strong, and the price has no significant downside space. It will correct recently and wait for the opportunity to go long after stabilizing [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of 【94800 - 97500】 [21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Weak [1] - Polysilicon: Strong [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver: The gold - silver ratio is approaching the historical low range, and attention should be paid to fluctuations. Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver should not be chased high or shorted in the short term, and long - term positions should be held [2][3]. - Copper: The market sentiment is cautious. In the short term, it is recommended to move the stop - profit for previous long positions and wait for a rebound opportunity. In the medium and long term, copper is still bullish [4][6]. - Zinc: Macro and sector sentiment has cooled, and zinc prices are under pressure. In the medium and long term, it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][9]. - Aluminum: Terminal demand is weakening, and aluminum prices are falling from high levels. It is recommended to stop profit and wait and see in the short term [10][13]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are under pressure due to off - season inventory. It is recommended to sell on rallies [14][17]. - Lithium carbonate: Total inventory continues to decline, and it is recommended to go long on dips [18][21]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market review**: Silver first broke through $60 per ounce, and traders bet on further Fed easing and supply shortages [2]. - **Basic logic**: Wait for the Fed's interest - rate meeting; US employment data is mixed; central banks continue to buy gold; long - term gold benefits from multiple factors, and silver's trading logic requires caution in the short term [2][3]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, pay attention to the support of domestic gold at 935. Long - term value - oriented positions should continue to be held. Be vigilant about the high - volatility risk of silver [3]. Copper - **Market review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and consolidating [4]. - **Industrial logic**: Global copper concentrate supply remains tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and inventories are accumulating, but there is still a delivery risk [5]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, move the stop - profit for previous long positions and wait for a rebound. In the medium and long term, copper is still bullish. Pay attention to the price ranges of Shanghai copper and London copper [6]. Zinc - **Market review**: Shanghai zinc is falling under pressure [7]. - **Industrial logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees are falling, and supply may shrink. Consumption is in the off - season, and short - term supply and demand are both weak, with inventory declining in the off - season [8]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure. Sell - hedging can be lightly positioned on rallies. In the medium and long term, sell on rallies. Pay attention to the price ranges of Shanghai zinc and London zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market review**: Aluminum prices' rebound is under pressure, and alumina continues to be weak [10]. - **Industrial logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs may increase, and demand is structurally differentiated. For alumina, the supply is in an over - supply situation [12]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, stop profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory and the price range of Shanghai aluminum [13]. Nickel - **Market review**: Nickel prices' rebound is under pressure, and stainless steel is under pressure [14]. - **Industrial logic**: Indonesia plans to cut nickel production, but inventories are rising. Stainless steel consumption is in the off - season, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the long term [16]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the change in stainless - steel inventory and the price range of nickel [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market review**: The main contract LC2605 opened high and closed low, and the commodity market was weak in the afternoon [18]. - **Industrial logic**: Total inventory has declined for 16 consecutive weeks. Terminal demand is strong, and prices have no room for a deep decline. There will be a correction recently, waiting for an opportunity to go long after stabilization [20]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Go long on dips in the range of [91000 - 95000] [21].

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美国通胀和消费者信心数据支持降息，中国央行连续 13 个月增持黄金，地缘交易编 | | | 长线持有 | 辑减少，黄金价格维持高位，市场等待的美联储议息会议。黄金中长期地缘秩序重 | | ★ | | 塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期白银交易交割逼仓以及低库存，全球大财政均对白银长期有利。不过现货高升 | | ★★ | 长线持有 | 水、白银期货波动率飙升，短期不宜追高。长线供给有缺口，全球经济刺激、流动 性维持宽松，做多逻辑不变 | | | | 超级宏观周来临，美联储议息会议和国内政治局会议在即，基本面上 LME 铜注销仓 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 单骤增，海外挤仓担忧加剧，国内淡季去库，非美铜库存或逐渐告急，伦铜和沪铜 | | ★ | | 续创新高，高位波动放大，多单移动止盈，中长期，铜依旧看多。 | | 锌 | | 超级宏观周来临，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需双弱，国 | | ★ | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Tin: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level correction [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged due to repeated internal Fed discussions on interest rate cuts and new geopolitical variables. Silver follows gold and other non - ferrous metals, with greater elasticity. Copper has long - term upward potential despite high inventories. Zinc is under short - term pressure and is expected to have an oversupply situation in the long run. Aluminum is under pressure at high levels due to the off - season effect. Nickel's supply - demand surplus persists, and its price remains weak. Lithium carbonate has short - term correction space [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold is at 926.94, down 0.91% from the previous value and 0.27% week - on - week; COMEX gold is at 4063, down 0.34% from the previous value and 0.11% week - on - week. SHFE silver is at 11680, down 3.07% from the previous value and 2.12% week - on - week; COMEX silver is at 49.66, down 0.01 from the previous value and 1.74% week - on - week. The dollar index is at 100.15, down 0.07% from the previous value and up 0.62% week - on - week [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: There are many data and event fluctuations, and there is support below for gold and silver. The long - term support for gold comes from Fed interest rate policy uncertainty, Japanese economic stimulus, and geopolitical factors [1][3]. Copper - **Market Review**: The overnight closing price of SHFE copper rose. The latest price of SHFE copper is 86180 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day; LME copper is at 10778 dollars/ton, up 0.86% from the previous day [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: The global supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with the latest TC at - 41.72 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 dollars/ton. In October, China imported 245.1 million tons of copper concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The downstream actively purchased at low prices after the copper price decline, and the weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 70.07%, a month - on - month increase of 3.19% [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Backed by the 85,000 yuan mark, try to go long on dips. In the medium - to - long term, be bullish on copper. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [85,000, 88,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper, it is [10,500, 11,000] dollars/ton [1][7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc was under pressure and fluctuated narrowly. The latest price of SHFE zinc is 22350 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; LME zinc is at 2992 dollars/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is short - term tight, and the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates has continued to decline. In October, the output of refined zinc increased by 1.71 million tons month - on - month to 61.72 million tons. Consumption has entered the off - season, the domestic zinc ingot export window has opened, and the LME zinc inventory has increased to 47325 tons, alleviating the soft squeeze risk [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure and fluctuates narrowly, waiting for more macro - level guidance. In the medium - to - long term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds. The range for SHFE zinc is [22,000, 22,600] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc, it is [2950, 3050] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price was under pressure at high levels, and alumina showed a weak trend at low levels. The latest price of LME aluminum is 2790.5 dollars/ton, down 0.57% from the previous value; SHFE aluminum is at 21340 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous value [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the year has weakened. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have cut production by 21 million tons and are expected to cut production further in March next year. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in November is 62.1 million tons, flat compared to last week. For alumina, the bauxite shipment in Guinea is expected to increase, and the domestic alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for SHFE aluminum in the short term, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The operating range for the main contract is [21,000 - 21,600] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price continued to be weak, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined. The latest price of LME nickel is 14405 dollars/ton, down 0.35% from the previous value; SHFE nickel is at 114050 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from the previous value [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the year has weakened. Indonesia plans to lower the nickel production target in 2026. The global refined nickel inventory has reached a five - year high. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has gradually weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the change in stainless steel inventory. The operating range for the main nickel contract is [113,000 - 116,000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened low and closed at the daily limit down [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has declined for 14 consecutive weeks, but there is obvious inventory accumulation in the trader segment. The production enthusiasm of lithium salt plants has increased, and the operating rate still has room to rise. Terminal demand remains strong, but the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in November has slowed down [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the range of [89,500 - 93,000] yuan/ton [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, it provides specific views such as long - term holding for gold, silver, and copper; rebound - pressured for zinc; high - level pressured for lead, tin, and aluminum; weak for nickel; range - bound for industrial silicon; high - level oscillating for polysilicon; and bullish for lithium carbonate [1]. Core Views - The core view of the report is that the prices of various metals are affected by multiple factors including Fed's monetary policy, industry supply - demand relationship, and macro - economic data. Different metals have different price trends and investment strategies. For example, gold and silver are suitable for long - term value investment, while zinc is recommended for short - selling on rebounds [1]. Summary by Metal Categories Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver prices fell and then oscillated due to a lack of short - term trading anchors and the amplification of negative news from Fed officials. SHFE gold dropped 2.49% and COMEX gold fell 0.96%; SHFE silver declined 3.57% and COMEX silver decreased 0.01 [2][3]. - **Underlying Logic**: Fed hawkish officials' statements reduced the probability of a December rate cut, but some supported rate cuts. There was a lack of US economic data, leading to sentiment - based trading. In the long run, gold benefits from global monetary easing, a decline in the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [4][5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term value investors should hold their positions, while short - term investors should be cautious. Short - term attention should be paid to the support levels of domestic gold at 920 and silver around 11500 [5]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.10%, LME copper dropped 0.73%, and COMEX copper fell 1.20% [6][7]. - **Underlying Logic**: In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline further in November. Consumption entered the off - season, and the global copper concentrate supply remained tight. However, high copper prices restricted demand, and the global visible copper inventory was at a historically high level [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the Fed's hawkish stance, industry hedging should add option protection, reduce positions, and control risks strictly. In the long - term, copper is still optimistic. Short - term attention should be paid to the price range of Shanghai copper at [84500, 87500] yuan/ton and LME copper at [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 0.22%, and LME zinc dropped 0.83% [9][10]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production declined, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to fall. Consumption entered the off - season, and the domestic zinc ingot export window opened. Zinc was in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the Fed's hawkish stance and poor domestic macro - data, zinc is pressured to run weakly. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase while demand decreases. It is recommended to short on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the price range of Shanghai zinc at [22000, 22500] and LME zinc at [2950, 3050] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices were pressured to decline, and alumina stabilized at a low level. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 0.53%, and LME aluminum dropped 0.38% [12][13]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and domestic production remained high. The destocking of aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas slowed down, and demand entered the off - season. The alumina market was in an oversupply situation in the short term [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21200 - 22000] [15]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices continued to weaken, and stainless steel rebounded at a low level. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract decreased by 0.11%, and LME nickel dropped 0.40% [16][17]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas Fed's year - end rate - cut expectation weakened. Global refined nickel inventory reached a five - year high. The stainless steel market entered the off - season, and downstream demand was weak [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [115000 - 117000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed at the daily limit, with significant position - increasing and upward movement [21]. - **Underlying Logic**: The supply - demand situation remained tight, with total inventory decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks and the decline accelerating. Terminal market demand was strong, and the impact of supply resumption was weakened [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Existing long positions should take profits on rallies, and new positions should wait for opportunities to go long during pullbacks or sideways consolidation in the range of [92000 - 99000] [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report doesn't provide a unified industry - wide investment rating but gives individual ratings for each metal variety: - Long - term long positions are recommended for gold, silver, and copper [1]. - Rebound - selling short is suggested for zinc [1]. - A bearish view is taken on lead, tin, and nickel, with lead under pressure, tin and nickel having a high - level bearish trend [1]. - Aluminium is expected to rise and then fall [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in a range, and polycrystalline silicon recommends buying on dips [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to have a high - level adjustment [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various factors such as employment data, government shutdowns, inflation data, and geopolitical situations in the United States, which have an impact on the prices of different metals. It provides investment strategies for each metal based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market trends [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Variety Gold and Silver - **Core View**: Long - term long positions are recommended. Gold has support due to factors like the US government shutdown, the debate on Trump's tariff legality, and geopolitical tensions. Silver follows related markets and has long - term demand supported by global policies [1][3]. - **Main Logic**: The US employment market is weakening, with a significant increase in corporate lay - offs in October. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff legality may lead to a large - scale tax refund. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the restructuring of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider entering the market for the medium and long - term. The support levels are 900 for domestic gold and 11,200 for silver. Hold long - term value - allocation positions [4]. Copper - **Core View**: Long - term holding is recommended, and short - term light - position buying on dips is suggested [1][7]. - **Main Logic**: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mining enterprises decreased year - on - year, and this trend is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. The US employment data is weakening, the government shutdown is ongoing, inflation data is lacking, and the Fed's hawkish stance has returned [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips with a light position in the short - term. Hold long - term strategic positions. For industrial hedging, add option protection, reduce positions, and strictly control risks. Short - term attention should be paid to the range of 84,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,500 - 11,000 US dollars/ton for London copper [7]. Zinc - **Core View**: Rebound - selling short is recommended in the medium and long - term, and short - term range - bound trading is expected [1][10]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have declined due to smelters' winter stockpiling. The market expects domestic smelters to reduce production in November due to raw material shortages. Consumption is entering the off - season, and the demand is weakening [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions when the price rebounds. In the medium and long - term, maintain the view of selling short on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the range of 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 3,000 - 3,100 US dollars/ton for London zinc [10]. Aluminium - **Core View**: Aluminium is expected to rise and then fall in the short - term [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminium production has decreased, while China's production capacity remains high. The inventory reduction of aluminium ingots in major consumption areas has slowed down, and consumption is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions when the price of Shanghai aluminium rebounds in the short - term. Pay attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Core View**: Nickel is expected to rebound and then fall [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas nickel inventories have reached a high level, and domestic refined nickel inventories have been accumulating. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has weakened [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is 119,000 - 121,000 yuan/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Main Logic**: The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally. The total inventory has been decreasing for 11 consecutive weeks, and the destocking amplitude has expanded. Although production is increasing, terminal demand remains strong [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of 79,800 - 82,000 yuan/ton [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term bullish [1] - Silver: Long - term bullish [1] - Copper: High - level adjustment in the short - term, long - term bullish [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, short - term profit - taking for long positions, long - term short - selling on rebounds [1] - Lead: Rise and then fall [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait for stabilization [1] Core Views - The shutdown of the US government has led to liquidity depletion, causing significant drops in capital markets including the precious metals market. Gold and silver are expected to stop falling in the short - term and are long - term bullish due to factors like global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. However, sentiment fluctuation risks need to be guarded against [2][3]. - Copper is under high - level adjustment in the short - term due to factors such as the strengthening US dollar and the approaching consumption off - season. But in the long - term, it remains bullish because of tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand [1][6]. - Zinc is facing a situation where supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. In the short - term, long positions should take profits at high levels, and in the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure in the short - term as the terminal consumption is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, with overseas supply shrinking and domestic supply remaining high [1][13]. - Nickel prices are weak as overseas and domestic inventories are rising, and the terminal consumption of downstream stainless steel is fading [1][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are under high - level adjustment. Although there are short - term shocks from复产 news, the fundamentals are improving with continuous de - stocking. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize [1][20]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver Market Review - The shutdown of the US government and other events have led to liquidity depletion, causing significant drops in the precious metals market [2]. Basic Logic - The US government shutdown may set a new record, and the market is facing liquidity depletion. There are also internal differences within the Fed regarding the December interest rate cut. In the long - term, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, both gold and silver have stopped falling. For the medium - and long - term, consider entering the market after stabilization. The support levels are 900 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions can be held [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper opened lower overnight and is under high - level adjustment [6]. Industry Logic - In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased. The consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and the market is worried about the economy as the manufacturing PMIs in China and the US have weakened in October [6]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the US government shutdown, the strengthening US dollar is suppressing commodities. Copper opened lower overnight and tested the 85000 support level. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels near the lower moving averages. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. For industrial hedging, options protection can be added, positions should be reduced, and strict risk control should be implemented. In the long - term, copper is still bullish [7]. Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc rebounded but faced pressure [9]. Industry Logic - The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined due to smelters' winter stockpiling. The profit of refined zinc enterprises has slightly increased. The consumption is entering the off - season, and the domestic zinc ingot export window has opened [9]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the decline in macro and sector sentiment, Shanghai zinc tested the 22800 level and then fell back. Short - term long positions should take profits at high levels. In the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas expectation of a year - end interest rate cut by the Fed has weakened. The domestic production capacity is high, and the terminal consumption is fading. For alumina, overseas shipments have decreased due to the rainy season in Guinea, and the domestic industry is facing profit contraction [13]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take profits at high levels for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, and pay attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate. The main operating range is [21000 - 21700] [14]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have slightly stabilized, and stainless steel shows a relatively weak trend [16]. Industry Logic - The overseas expectation of a year - end interest rate cut by the Fed has weakened. Overseas and domestic nickel inventories are increasing, and the terminal consumption of stainless steel is approaching the end of the peak season [17]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to the downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 122000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed low, with a reduction of over 70,000 lots in a day and a decline of over 4% [19]. Industry Logic - The market is spreading news of复产, which may impact the market in the short - term. However, the fundamentals are improving with continuous de - stocking for 11 weeks, and the terminal demand remains strong [20]. Strategy Recommendation - It is advisable to wait and see and wait for the market to stabilize within the range of [76800 - 78800] [21].

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] - Core views on various metals: Gold is expected to experience a pullback adjustment in the short - term but maintains long - term strategic value; silver is recommended for long - term buying; copper is recommended for long - term holding; zinc is expected to rebound with limited upside and is a short - term bearish option; lead's price rebound is under pressure; tin's price is short - term strong; aluminum's price is short - term strong; nickel's price is under pressure and weak; industrial silicon is expected to rebound; polysilicon is recommended for long - term holding; and lithium carbonate is recommended for long - term holding [2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Review - G2 relations have eased, but Powell's statement was unexpected. Short - term focus is on when gold and silver will stop falling [3] Basic Logic - Powell cooled the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. The Fed's "dovish" action was accompanied by a "hawkish" guidance. The probability of a December rate cut dropped significantly [4] - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates, and the market expects more cuts [4] - Attention is on the G2 leaders' meeting [4] - In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [4] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term focus on when gold and silver will stop falling. For domestic gold, pay attention to the 900 support level. Silver has strong support at 11000. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [5] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Both Shanghai and London copper prices reached record highs [8] Industry Logic - Trump revoked strict emission restrictions on copper smelters and provided a two - year compliance exemption. SMM expects a decline in electrolytic copper production in October and a contraction in the fourth quarter [8] - High copper prices have curbed demand, and downstream buyers are hesitant. The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises decreased [8] Strategy Recommendation - Wait and see if copper can break through the 90,000 mark. Short - term copper long positions should take profit, and avoid chasing high prices. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging should use options for protection [9] Group 4: Zinc Market Review - Zinc continued to rebound but was under pressure at the 22,500 level [11] Industry Logic - Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant. The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined, and the profit loss of refined zinc enterprises has slightly expanded [11] - The "Silver October" peak season was lackluster, and demand was weak. The domestic zinc ingot export window opened, and domestic inventories increased slightly [11] Strategy Recommendation - Zinc's upside is limited after the short - term macro - policy stimulus fades. In the long run, zinc supply will increase while demand decreases. It is a bearish option in the sector [12] Group 5: Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices should be chased with caution, and alumina showed a slight stabilization trend [14] Industry Logic - Overseas, the Fed continued to cut interest rates in October. In China, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum reached 44.05 million tons in early October, and inventories increased slightly [15] - The domestic alumina industry's profit has shrunk significantly, and some high - cost enterprises are facing losses. The market is in an oversupply situation in the short term [15] Strategy Recommendation - Shanghai aluminum should take profit on short - term long positions. Pay attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises [16] Group 6: Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices fell under pressure, and stainless steel's rebound was under pressure [18] Industry Logic - Overseas, the Fed continued to cut interest rates in October. The supply of nickel ore from Indonesia has become more stable, and domestic pure nickel inventories have continued to accumulate [19] - The performance of the stainless steel terminal consumption peak season needs further observation. The expected production increase of stainless steel will put pressure on inventory reduction [19] Strategy Recommendation - Nickel and stainless steel should be put on hold for now. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [20] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2601 rose and then fell, with a slight increase in positions throughout the day [22] Industry Logic - The fundamentals have improved significantly. Total inventory has decreased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the downstream material factories' raw material inventory has been consumed rapidly [23] - Although supply is still growing, production in Sichuan has decreased slightly. Terminal demand remains strong, and the supply - demand structure has improved [23] Strategy Recommendation - Adopt a low - buying strategy in the range of 82,200 - 84,500 [24]