中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 短期变量多数被消化，黄金盘面短期或止跌，但是短期也缺乏向上的集中性风险事 | | | 止跌试多 | 件爆发，中长期，主要国家货币政策宽松，央行继续买黄金，地缘格局重塑，黄金 | | ★ | | 有资产配置需求。长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | 白银 | | 白银逻辑变化不大。中长期全球流动性和各国再工业化需求坚挺，供给端增量有限， | | ★ | 止跌试多 | 白银向上趋势不变。由于弹性大，噪音影响明显。短期关注 9100 附近表现，长期做 | | | | 多。 | | | | 美联储官员放鹰称 9 月或不降息，美元指数反弹，市场静待鲍威尔发言。短期建议 | | 铜 | 回调试多 | 铜回调逢低试多，中长期，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜 | | ★ | | | | | | 需求爆发，对铜长期看好。 | | 锌 | | 需求淡季，锌精矿供应增加，下游需求疲软，锌震荡偏弱，建议前期空单部分可逢 | | ★ | 承压 | 低止盈兑现。中长期看锌供增需减，等待逢高沽空机会。 | | 铅 ...

中辉有色观点 | 11 | 1 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | P | 7 | The distribution | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 空头情绪消化地缘缓和和鲍威尔可能的鹰派观点，市场转向 9 月降息，黄金盘面短 | | 黄金 | 止跌试多 | 期或止跌，中长期，主要国家货币政策宽松，央行继续买黄金，地缘格局重塑，黄 | | ★ | | 金有资产配置需求。长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | | | 流动性充裕，短期空头情绪有所释放。白银弹性大，噪音影响明显。中长期全球流 | | 白银 | 止跌试多 | 动性和各国再工业化需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。短期关注 9100 | | ★ | | 附近表现，长期做多。 | | | | 特朗普再次施压美联储和鲍威尔，美元指数回落商品反弹，市场情绪小幅修复。短 | | 铜 | 回调试多 | 期建议铜回调逢低试多，中长期，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源，铜精矿紧张和 | | ★ | | 绿色铜需求爆发，对铜长期看好。 | | 锌 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Silver has an upward trend with strong industrial demand and limited supply growth. Copper is expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance, with long - term positive prospects. Zinc has a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the medium - long term. Aluminum, lead, tin, and nickel prices are under pressure, while industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are bullish, and lithium carbonate is also recommended for long positions [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Last week, gold and silver prices declined due to factors such as the reconstruction of the global geopolitical pattern and the repeated expectations of US interest rate cuts [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US data is mixed, and there was a meeting between US and Russian leaders. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. The trading range for silver is expected to be between 9150 - 9400, and long - term long positions are recommended [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, returning to the 79,000 - yuan mark, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas copper prices [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Recently, there have been disruptions in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has marginally improved. During the consumption off - season, demand is weak, but it is expected to pick up with the arrival of the peak season. Overseas copper inventories are slightly increasing, while domestic social inventories are tight [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the off - season and peak - season switch and the key interest - rate cut month of September approaches, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. Enterprises can wait for high - price opportunities to sell and hedge [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc opened lower and moved lower overnight, under pressure and falling back [9]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline in August, and domestic zinc inventories are accumulating [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the support at the 22,000 - yuan mark. In the medium - long term, wait for high - price opportunities to short [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were slightly under pressure, and alumina was in a downward trend [12]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the macro situation has slightly improved, with costs decreasing and inventories increasing. For alumina, the arrival volume may be affected by the rainy season in Guinea, and the supply is expected to be loose in the short term [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory changes during the off - season [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices faced pressure during the rebound, and stainless steel was also under pressure [16]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing with inventory accumulation. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and there is still an over - supply pressure during the off - season [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 fluctuated slightly and rose more than 2% at the end of the session [20]. - **Industry Logic**: Although the overall inventory and production have slightly declined, the absolute quantity is still high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, downstream factories are stocking up, and the inventory structure is expected to drive price increases [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan [22].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美俄乌会面在即，美国 9 月份降息概率几成定局，短期盘面止跌后盘整。中长期 G2 | | | 止跌做多 | 大国货币政策宽松，央行继续买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性低，资产配置需要。 | | ★ | | 长期黄金继续战略配置。谨防短期特朗普普京会面对盘面冲击【770-788】 | | 白银 | | 白银逻辑不变，流动性影响白银涨幅更多，中长期美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松 | | ★★ | 反弹做多 | 财政刺激等支撑作用明显，工业需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。 | | | | 短期白银品种弹性较大，短期试多长期做多。【9150-9400】 | | | | 宏观利好兑现后，市场情绪降温，商品大面积飘绿，需求淡季海外铜库存累库，国 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 内铜社会库存相对偏紧，铜高位盘整，建议前期多单继续持有，部分可止盈兑现， | | ★★ | | | | | | 中长期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【78000，80000】 | | 锌 | | 伦锌仓单紧张，锌外强内弱，短期需 ...