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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report doesn't provide a unified industry - wide investment rating but gives individual ratings for each metal variety: - Long - term long positions are recommended for gold, silver, and copper [1]. - Rebound - selling short is suggested for zinc [1]. - A bearish view is taken on lead, tin, and nickel, with lead under pressure, tin and nickel having a high - level bearish trend [1]. - Aluminium is expected to rise and then fall [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in a range, and polycrystalline silicon recommends buying on dips [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to have a high - level adjustment [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various factors such as employment data, government shutdowns, inflation data, and geopolitical situations in the United States, which have an impact on the prices of different metals. It provides investment strategies for each metal based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market trends [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Variety Gold and Silver - **Core View**: Long - term long positions are recommended. Gold has support due to factors like the US government shutdown, the debate on Trump's tariff legality, and geopolitical tensions. Silver follows related markets and has long - term demand supported by global policies [1][3]. - **Main Logic**: The US employment market is weakening, with a significant increase in corporate lay - offs in October. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff legality may lead to a large - scale tax refund. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the restructuring of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider entering the market for the medium and long - term. The support levels are 900 for domestic gold and 11,200 for silver. Hold long - term value - allocation positions [4]. Copper - **Core View**: Long - term holding is recommended, and short - term light - position buying on dips is suggested [1][7]. - **Main Logic**: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mining enterprises decreased year - on - year, and this trend is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. The US employment data is weakening, the government shutdown is ongoing, inflation data is lacking, and the Fed's hawkish stance has returned [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips with a light position in the short - term. Hold long - term strategic positions. For industrial hedging, add option protection, reduce positions, and strictly control risks. Short - term attention should be paid to the range of 84,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,500 - 11,000 US dollars/ton for London copper [7]. Zinc - **Core View**: Rebound - selling short is recommended in the medium and long - term, and short - term range - bound trading is expected [1][10]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have declined due to smelters' winter stockpiling. The market expects domestic smelters to reduce production in November due to raw material shortages. Consumption is entering the off - season, and the demand is weakening [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions when the price rebounds. In the medium and long - term, maintain the view of selling short on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the range of 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 3,000 - 3,100 US dollars/ton for London zinc [10]. Aluminium - **Core View**: Aluminium is expected to rise and then fall in the short - term [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminium production has decreased, while China's production capacity remains high. The inventory reduction of aluminium ingots in major consumption areas has slowed down, and consumption is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions when the price of Shanghai aluminium rebounds in the short - term. Pay attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Core View**: Nickel is expected to rebound and then fall [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas nickel inventories have reached a high level, and domestic refined nickel inventories have been accumulating. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has weakened [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is 119,000 - 121,000 yuan/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Main Logic**: The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally. The total inventory has been decreasing for 11 consecutive weeks, and the destocking amplitude has expanded. Although production is increasing, terminal demand remains strong [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of 79,800 - 82,000 yuan/ton [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term bullish [1] - Silver: Long - term bullish [1] - Copper: High - level adjustment in the short - term, long - term bullish [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, short - term profit - taking for long positions, long - term short - selling on rebounds [1] - Lead: Rise and then fall [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: High - level adjustment, wait for stabilization [1] Core Views - The shutdown of the US government has led to liquidity depletion, causing significant drops in capital markets including the precious metals market. Gold and silver are expected to stop falling in the short - term and are long - term bullish due to factors like global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. However, sentiment fluctuation risks need to be guarded against [2][3]. - Copper is under high - level adjustment in the short - term due to factors such as the strengthening US dollar and the approaching consumption off - season. But in the long - term, it remains bullish because of tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand [1][6]. - Zinc is facing a situation where supply is increasing while demand is decreasing. In the short - term, long positions should take profits at high levels, and in the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1][10]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure in the short - term as the terminal consumption is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, with overseas supply shrinking and domestic supply remaining high [1][13]. - Nickel prices are weak as overseas and domestic inventories are rising, and the terminal consumption of downstream stainless steel is fading [1][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are under high - level adjustment. Although there are short - term shocks from复产 news, the fundamentals are improving with continuous de - stocking. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize [1][20]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver Market Review - The shutdown of the US government and other events have led to liquidity depletion, causing significant drops in the precious metals market [2]. Basic Logic - The US government shutdown may set a new record, and the market is facing liquidity depletion. There are also internal differences within the Fed regarding the December interest rate cut. In the long - term, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, both gold and silver have stopped falling. For the medium - and long - term, consider entering the market after stabilization. The support levels are 900 for domestic gold and 11200 for silver. Long - term value - oriented positions can be held [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper opened lower overnight and is under high - level adjustment [6]. Industry Logic - In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased. The consumption is gradually entering the off - season, and the market is worried about the economy as the manufacturing PMIs in China and the US have weakened in October [6]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the US government shutdown, the strengthening US dollar is suppressing commodities. Copper opened lower overnight and tested the 85000 support level. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels near the lower moving averages. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. For industrial hedging, options protection can be added, positions should be reduced, and strict risk control should be implemented. In the long - term, copper is still bullish [7]. Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc rebounded but faced pressure [9]. Industry Logic - The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined due to smelters' winter stockpiling. The profit of refined zinc enterprises has slightly increased. The consumption is entering the off - season, and the domestic zinc ingot export window has opened [9]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the decline in macro and sector sentiment, Shanghai zinc tested the 22800 level and then fell back. Short - term long positions should take profits at high levels. In the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices are under pressure at high levels, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the overseas expectation of a year - end interest rate cut by the Fed has weakened. The domestic production capacity is high, and the terminal consumption is fading. For alumina, overseas shipments have decreased due to the rainy season in Guinea, and the domestic industry is facing profit contraction [13]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take profits at high levels for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term, and pay attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate. The main operating range is [21000 - 21700] [14]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have slightly stabilized, and stainless steel shows a relatively weak trend [16]. Industry Logic - The overseas expectation of a year - end interest rate cut by the Fed has weakened. Overseas and domestic nickel inventories are increasing, and the terminal consumption of stainless steel is approaching the end of the peak season [17]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to the downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 122000] [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed low, with a reduction of over 70,000 lots in a day and a decline of over 4% [19]. Industry Logic - The market is spreading news of复产, which may impact the market in the short - term. However, the fundamentals are improving with continuous de - stocking for 11 weeks, and the terminal demand remains strong [20]. Strategy Recommendation - It is advisable to wait and see and wait for the market to stabilize within the range of [76800 - 78800] [21].

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] - Core views on various metals: Gold is expected to experience a pullback adjustment in the short - term but maintains long - term strategic value; silver is recommended for long - term buying; copper is recommended for long - term holding; zinc is expected to rebound with limited upside and is a short - term bearish option; lead's price rebound is under pressure; tin's price is short - term strong; aluminum's price is short - term strong; nickel's price is under pressure and weak; industrial silicon is expected to rebound; polysilicon is recommended for long - term holding; and lithium carbonate is recommended for long - term holding [2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Review - G2 relations have eased, but Powell's statement was unexpected. Short - term focus is on when gold and silver will stop falling [3] Basic Logic - Powell cooled the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut. The Fed's "dovish" action was accompanied by a "hawkish" guidance. The probability of a December rate cut dropped significantly [4] - The Bank of Canada cut interest rates, and the market expects more cuts [4] - Attention is on the G2 leaders' meeting [4] - In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [4] Strategy Recommendation - Short - term focus on when gold and silver will stop falling. For domestic gold, pay attention to the 900 support level. Silver has strong support at 11000. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [5] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Both Shanghai and London copper prices reached record highs [8] Industry Logic - Trump revoked strict emission restrictions on copper smelters and provided a two - year compliance exemption. SMM expects a decline in electrolytic copper production in October and a contraction in the fourth quarter [8] - High copper prices have curbed demand, and downstream buyers are hesitant. The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises decreased [8] Strategy Recommendation - Wait and see if copper can break through the 90,000 mark. Short - term copper long positions should take profit, and avoid chasing high prices. Long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging should use options for protection [9] Group 4: Zinc Market Review - Zinc continued to rebound but was under pressure at the 22,500 level [11] Industry Logic - Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant. The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate has declined, and the profit loss of refined zinc enterprises has slightly expanded [11] - The "Silver October" peak season was lackluster, and demand was weak. The domestic zinc ingot export window opened, and domestic inventories increased slightly [11] Strategy Recommendation - Zinc's upside is limited after the short - term macro - policy stimulus fades. In the long run, zinc supply will increase while demand decreases. It is a bearish option in the sector [12] Group 5: Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices should be chased with caution, and alumina showed a slight stabilization trend [14] Industry Logic - Overseas, the Fed continued to cut interest rates in October. In China, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum reached 44.05 million tons in early October, and inventories increased slightly [15] - The domestic alumina industry's profit has shrunk significantly, and some high - cost enterprises are facing losses. The market is in an oversupply situation in the short term [15] Strategy Recommendation - Shanghai aluminum should take profit on short - term long positions. Pay attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises [16] Group 6: Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices fell under pressure, and stainless steel's rebound was under pressure [18] Industry Logic - Overseas, the Fed continued to cut interest rates in October. The supply of nickel ore from Indonesia has become more stable, and domestic pure nickel inventories have continued to accumulate [19] - The performance of the stainless steel terminal consumption peak season needs further observation. The expected production increase of stainless steel will put pressure on inventory reduction [19] Strategy Recommendation - Nickel and stainless steel should be put on hold for now. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [20] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2601 rose and then fell, with a slight increase in positions throughout the day [22] Industry Logic - The fundamentals have improved significantly. Total inventory has decreased for 10 consecutive weeks, and the downstream material factories' raw material inventory has been consumed rapidly [23] - Although supply is still growing, production in Sichuan has decreased slightly. Terminal demand remains strong, and the supply - demand structure has improved [23] Strategy Recommendation - Adopt a low - buying strategy in the range of 82,200 - 84,500 [24]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level adjustment [2] - Silver: High-level correction [2] - Copper: High-level consolidation [2] - Zinc: Rebound and short sell [2] - Lead: Rebound [2] - Tin: Rebound [2] - Aluminum: Rebound, with pressure [2] - Nickel: Stabilize [2] - Industrial silicon: Range-bound [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [2] Core Views - The prices of gold and silver dropped significantly due to the potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the withdrawal of speculative forces. However, in the long term, gold's upward logic remains unchanged, while silver has a supply - demand gap in the long run. Copper prices are affected by the potential end of the war and inventory accumulation, but are still bullish in the long term. Zinc supply is expected to increase while demand decreases. Lead, tin, and aluminum prices show short - term rebound trends. Nickel prices are stabilizing at a low level. Industrial silicon is in a range - bound state. Polysilicon is expected to rise after a correction. Lithium carbonate is in a state of supply - demand balance and is cautiously bullish [2]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Geopolitical relaxation and profit - taking of overbought funds led to a sharp decline in gold and silver prices, with the largest decline in 12 years [3]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Russia - Ukraine process is full of uncertainties; the tariff atmosphere between G2 is easing; there are political changes in Japan. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for gold prices to stop falling in the short term. For silver, exit short - term positions and hold long - term positions. Long - term gold's upward logic remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuated at a high level, with a V - shaped rebound during the session, and returned to the support level of 85,000 yuan [6]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increased, and domestic electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to shrink. High copper prices led to inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions with trailing stop - loss protection. New long positions should wait for a pull - back to stabilize. Long - term prospects for copper are positive [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fluctuated and were under pressure at the 22,000 - yuan mark [9]. - **Underlying Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc smelters are actively producing. The peak season for demand is not strong, and the situation of weak domestic and strong overseas zinc persists [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually take profits on short positions and wait for a rebound to re - enter short positions. Zinc is a short - side allocation in the long term [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded with pressure, and alumina prices stabilized at a low level [12]. - **Underlying Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The electrolytic aluminum industry has high production capacity and inventory is decreasing. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the short term, and pay attention to the operating range of the main contract [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and stainless steel prices rebounded from a low level [16]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas nickel mine supply disturbances have weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. Stainless steel inventory has accumulated, and terminal demand is weak [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for now, and pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption and the operating range of the main contract [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened slightly lower and fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the day [20]. - **Underlying Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory has been decreasing for 9 consecutive weeks, and terminal demand is strong. There are rumors of supply - side accidents [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract within the range of 75,500 - 77,000 yuan [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long-term hold, ★★ [1] - Silver: Bullish in the long run, ★★ [1] - Copper: Bullish, ★★ [1] - Zinc: Bearish in the medium to long term, ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Short-term rebound, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound, ★★ [1] - Nickel: Short-term rebound, ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish in the short term, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, ★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] Core Views - Gold and silver are affected by factors such as the rise of the US dollar index and US bond yields, but the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][3][4] - Copper prices hit a new high this year due to the mine accident in Indonesia and the tight supply of copper concentrates, and the long-term outlook is positive [5][6][7] - Zinc shows a weak rebound in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases in the medium to long term [9][10] - Aluminum prices are stabilizing and rebounding, and short-term buying on dips is recommended [11][13][14] - Nickel prices are rebounding in the short term, and short-term long positions on dips are recommended [15][17][18] - Lithium carbonate has a situation of both supply and demand being strong, but the upward driving force is insufficient [19][21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The US dollar and US bond yields have risen significantly, leading to a correction in gold prices as some funds leave the market due to profit-taking [2] - **Basic Logic**: US economic data has unexpectedly improved, there are differences among Fed officials, and the US and the EU have reached a tariff agreement. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short-term correction of gold does not change the long-term trend. There may be support around 840 for gold and 10000 for silver in the short term. Long-term long positions can continue to be held [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper soared by more than 3%, hitting a new high this year [6] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the mine accident in Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine is expected to lead to a significant reduction in global copper mine supply. The processing fee of copper concentrates is still deeply inverted, and the domestic electrolytic copper production may decline in September [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions in copper, gradually take profits on rallies, and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. For the long term, copper is still favored [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc showed a weak rebound, while London zinc oscillated strongly [9] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is expected to be loose in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance has increased in September, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. The inventory of Shanghai zinc has increased significantly, while the inventory of London zinc has continued to decline. The demand has been affected by the typhoon [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on short positions in Shanghai zinc and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the medium to long term, it is recommended to sell on rallies [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina prices stabilized at a low level [12] - **Industrial Logic**: The production of domestic electrolytic aluminum has continued to increase slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased slightly, while the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased slightly. The demand has shown a slight improvement. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded, while stainless steel prices faced pressure on the rebound [16] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of refined nickel is under pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the improvement of the peak season needs to be observed [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take short-term long positions on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with a decline at the end of the session [20] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the demand has received positive support. The total inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks, and the inventory of smelters is lower than that of last year [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around the 60-day moving average [72700 - 74100] [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold, rated ★★ [1] - Silver: Expected to rise strongly, rated ★★ [1] - Copper: In September, take profit on long positions, rated ★ [1] - Zinc: Under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation in September, rated ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are favored in the long - term. Gold is supported by factors such as geopolitical changes, economic uncertainty, and expected global monetary easing. Silver has strong demand and a significant supply - demand gap. Both are expected to rise in the long run. However, silver is more volatile [1][2][3]. - For copper, although there are short - term factors such as the disappointment of interest - rate cut expectations and holiday risk - aversion sentiment, it is still promising in the long term due to its strategic importance and supply - demand situation [1][5][6]. - Zinc is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the long term, so it is a short - position configuration in the sector, but short - term risk - aversion sentiment may lead to the need to take profit on short positions [1][7][9]. - Other metals such as lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and polysilicon are currently facing different supply - demand situations, and their prices are generally under pressure to rebound [1]. - Lithium carbonate has a situation of both supply and demand booming, and it is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices [1][18][21]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver Market Review - Large inflows of funds and factors such as the risk of a US government shutdown have supported gold to reach new historical highs both domestically and internationally [2]. Basic Logic - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. There is continuous inflow of funds into gold, with the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF reaching a new high since August 2022. Under geopolitical changes and economic uncertainty, gold is strong in the short term and may have a long - term bull market [2]. Strategy Recommendation - Gold can be bought both in the short and long term. For silver, although there is support around 9800, due to its high volatility, careful consideration of position and rhythm is needed when buying in the short term. In general, the long - term bullish logic for both gold and silver remains unchanged [3]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper has stopped falling and stabilized, while London copper has returned to the $10,000 mark, showing a pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets [5]. Industrial Logic - Copper concentrate supply is tight. The import volume of copper concentrates and unforged copper in August has different trends. The processing fee of copper concentrates is still deeply inverted, and the domestic electrolytic copper production in September may decline [5]. Strategy Recommendation - In September, the domestic LPR remained unchanged, and the market's interest - rate cut expectations were disappointed. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the long term, copper is still promising. Pay attention to specific price ranges for Shanghai copper and London copper [6]. Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded [8]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is expected to be loose, but the domestic production of zinc concentrates has decreased. The inventory performance is divided, with the LME zinc inventory decreasing and the SHFE zinc inventory increasing. The consumption in the peak season in September is expected to be good, but downstream procurement is based on rigid demand [8]. Strategy Recommendation - With the approaching of the National Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually take profit on short positions of Shanghai zinc and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the long term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds [9]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [11]. Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest - rate cuts are in line with expectations. The domestic production in August increased slightly, and the inventory situation is different for aluminum ingots and aluminum rods. For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, but the rainy season may affect the arrival volume in September, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [12]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, and pay attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [13]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have rebounded from low levels, and stainless steel has also shown a rebound trend [15]. Industrial Logic - Overseas interest - rate cuts are in line with expectations. The supply - demand situation within the domestic nickel industry chain is differentiated, with a large supply surplus of refined nickel and a relatively tight situation in the nickel sulfate segment. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the arrival of overseas goods and the increase in domestic production in September mean that the performance of the peak - season consumption needs to be observed [16]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. Pay attention to the specific price range for nickel [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 first rose and then fell, closing in the red at the end of the session [19]. Industrial Logic - The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the weekly production and operating rate have increased slightly. The demand has received policy support, and the total inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks. The issue of mining licenses in Jiangxi may attract market attention at the end of the month [20]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices within the range of [72700 - 74700] [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: High - level correction [1] - Copper: High - level correction [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Wide - range oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term bullish logic of gold and silver remains unchanged, despite short - term adjustments. Copper's long - term trend is positive, while zinc shows a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the medium - long term. Aluminum prices are under pressure, and nickel prices are also facing downward pressure. Lithium carbonate will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term due to strong terminal demand [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the probability of rate cuts in 2026 is lower than expected, and gold and silver prices have significantly adjusted [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment data has improved month - on - month, and many countries have followed the Fed in cutting interest rates. In the short term, the market is selling on the news, leading to a correction in gold prices. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, the selling on the news is common, but the volatility is expected to be limited. Silver has support around 9730. Wait for it to stabilize before making long - position purchases. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper has been oscillating and testing the support of the lower moving average [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight. High copper prices have suppressed demand, and inventories have continued to accumulate. Pay attention to the strength of domestic policies and the performance of the peak season [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed's interest rate cut was in line with expectations. The market has fully priced in the rate cut. Copper has oscillated and corrected, testing the support of the lower moving average. The long - term logic remains unchanged. Wait for copper to stop falling and stabilize before re - entering the market. For the medium - long term, be optimistic about copper [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc has been under pressure and testing the support of the 22,000 - yuan level [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates was abundant. In September, domestic smelter maintenance increased, and zinc ingot production was expected to decrease. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have accumulated, while LME zinc inventories have continued to decline. The demand in September is expected to be good, but downstream buyers are purchasing on dips [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed's interest rate cut was in line with expectations. In the short term, LME zinc has risen and then fallen. Shanghai zinc is oscillating weakly and may test the support of the lower integer level. In the medium - long term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices have been under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts were in line with expectations. In August, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. Inventories have accumulated. The demand side has shown a step - by - step recovery. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, and the supply pressure of alumina has increased [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices have been under pressure, and stainless steel has rebounded and then fallen [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas interest rate cuts were in line with expectations. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel has a large surplus pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The inventory of stainless steel has continued to decline, and the production volume in September is expected to increase. Pay attention to the improvement of terminal consumption during the peak season [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and moved lower, with the decline narrowing at the end of the session [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side has continued to release incremental production. Terminal demand is in the peak season, and the inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased. The price of lithium carbonate has support at the bottom and will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a low - buying strategy in the range of [72300 - 73500] [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Cautious hold [1] - Copper: High - level correction [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound [1] Core Views - The Fed's "not dovish enough" rate cut is in line with expectations. The dot - plot shows 50bp of rate cuts by the end of the year. The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, while short - term "sell - on - news" trading risks should be guarded against. Silver has strong long - term prospects but is volatile. Copper is expected to have limited downside in the short term and is still favored in the long run. Zinc is a short - position allocation in the long term. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel prices face pressure on rebounds. Industrial silicon has short - term wide - range oscillations, polysilicon has high - level oscillations, and lithium carbonate has short - term wide - range oscillations with support at the bottom [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: There was a short - term adjustment in the gold and silver market. The Fed's rate cut was in line with expectations, and risks of adjustments due to sentiment fluctuations should be guarded against [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US data decline supports rate cuts. The Fed cut rates by 25bp, and many countries followed suit. In the short term, geopolitical uncertainties and economic prospects drive gold prices to new highs. In the long term, gold may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold remains strong in the long term, but there may be short - term fluctuations. Silver has support around 9800. Wait for it to stabilize before making long - position purchases. The long - term upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined, breaking through the 80,000 - yuan support level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and inventories continue to accumulate. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and the strength of the peak season [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The Fed's rate cut was in line with expectations. Copper prices are under pressure in the short term, but the long - term logic remains unchanged. Wait for copper to stop falling and stabilize before re - entering the market. Long - term prospects for copper are positive [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc declined under pressure and tested the lower support level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant. Domestic refinery maintenance increases in September, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Domestic inventories are accumulating, and overseas inventories are decreasing. Attention should be paid to domestic policies [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, Shanghai zinc oscillates weakly. In the long term, supply increases and demand decreases. Maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure on rebounds, and alumina showed a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, there are obvious expectations of rate cuts. Domestically, electrolytic aluminum production is increasing, and inventories are accumulating. The demand side is gradually recovering. Alumina supply is abundant, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rates [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, there are obvious expectations of rate cuts. Domestically, the supply of refined nickel has excessive pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The stainless steel market has expectations of a peak consumption season, and inventories are decreasing [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened lower and closed higher with a small gain [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply side continues to increase production, and the terminal demand is in the peak season. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate is decreasing, and the price has support at the bottom [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a long - position strategy in the range of 73,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★ (Bullish) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Bullish) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Bullish) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Lead: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Tin: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Bearish) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Bullish) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Cautiously Bearish) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are expected to continue their upward trend in the long - term due to global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. In the short - term, they are also strong [1][2][3]. - Copper is expected to maintain a tight supply - demand balance. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will pick up. It is recommended to hold long positions and some can take profits [1][5][6]. - Zinc has insufficient demand and increasing inventory in the short - term. In the long - term, supply will increase while demand decreases, so it is recommended to short on rebounds [1][9][10]. - Aluminum price rebounds are under pressure due to inventory overhang. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short - term [1][13][14]. - Nickel prices are under pressure as the impact of mine - end disturbances weakens. It is recommended to wait and see after taking profits [1][17][18]. - Lithium carbonate prices are in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see for stabilization [1][21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - Due to factors such as interest rate cuts, tariff disputes, and concerns about the Fed's independence, gold has reached a new high, and silver has also broken through historical highs [2][3] Fundamental Logic - Weak economic data in the US and Germany, Fed officials' support for interest rate cuts, and the Fed's economic beige - book report indicating economic stagnation and reduced inflation concerns. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2] Strategy Recommendation - Gold has support around 804 in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the performance around the recent high of 838. Silver has support around 9700. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [3] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper has been consolidating at a high level and has firmly stood above the 80,000 - yuan mark [5] Industrial Logic - Tight supply of copper concentrates, with processing fees still in deep inversion. Production may decline in September. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will gradually pick up. Overseas inventory is increasing, but domestic exchange inventory is decreasing, and social inventory is at a low level [5] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to hold existing long positions, and some can take profits at high prices. Enterprises can actively arrange short - hedging positions near the previous high. In the long - term, copper is optimistic due to its strategic importance and asset - allocation value [6] Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc has been oscillating under pressure [9] Industrial Logic - Abundant supply of zinc concentrates, rising processing fees, and increased smelter production enthusiasm. However, it is the off - season for demand, and domestic inventory is increasing while overseas inventory is decreasing [9] Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, zinc is weak domestically and strong overseas. Pay attention to the support at 22,000 yuan. In the long - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [10] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [12] Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, there are obvious expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. Production is increasing slightly, and inventory is rising. The demand side has shown some improvement. For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, and domestic production capacity is increasing, with inventory gradually accumulating [13] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises' operating rates [14] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have fallen under pressure, and stainless steel has also shown a downward trend [16] Industrial Logic - There are expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. The supply of refined nickel in the domestic market is excessive, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. Stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly, but the effect of production cuts is weakening [17] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see after taking profits, paying attention to changes in downstream inventory [18] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 has opened low and gone lower, falling more than 3% [20] Industrial Logic - Rumors of CATL's resumption of production have eased supply concerns. Production remains stable, and inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks. Terminal demand is approaching the peak season [21] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to wait and see for stabilization in the range of 71,300 - 73,000 yuan [22]