11月24日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜企稳，交易商称市场预期美国下月将降息以及美元 走软支撑了市场人气。 伦敦时间11月24日17:00(北京时间11月25日01:00)，LME三个月期铜下跌4.5美元，或0.04%，收报每吨 10,773.0美元。10月29日一度触及11,200美元的历史新高，因对供应和短缺的担忧加剧。 | | 11月24日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张紫幅 | | 三个月期铜 | 10,773.00 ↓ | -4.50 ↓ -0.04% | | 三个月期铝 | 2.812.00 ↑ | +26.00 ↑ +0.93% | | 三个月期锌 | 3,000.00 ↑ | +11.00 ↑ +0.37% | | 三个月期铅 | 1,984.00 | -1.00 J -0.05% | | 三个月期镇 | 14,699.00 ↑ | +244.00 ↑ +1.69% | | 三个月期锡 | 37,384.00 ↑ | +489.00 ↑ +1.33% | 数据来源：文华财经 从技术角度来看，铜价阻 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Global Wealth Management strategists predict a potential weakening of the US dollar due to anticipated weak economic data to be released next week [1] Economic Data Summary - Key economic indicators to be released include retail sales, consumer confidence, and existing home sales on Tuesday, followed by durable goods orders, weekly initial jobless claims, and new home sales on Wednesday [1] - The strategists believe that the upcoming data will be weak enough to raise market expectations for a rate cut in December, which could put downward pressure on the dollar by year-end [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is set to release a backlog of important data, including employment and inflation indicators, which are expected to show weakness, potentially lowering U.S. Treasury yields and reigniting market expectations for interest rate cuts in early 2026, while providing a rebound opportunity for gold that has been pressured by rising real yields [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming data release is anticipated to indicate a cooling U.S. economy, which could lead to lower Treasury yields [1] - Market expectations are leaning towards weaker U.S. data, which may influence investment strategies [1] Group 2: Gold Market Outlook - Recent declines in gold prices appear to be more of a position adjustment rather than a trend reversal [1] - The outlook for gold remains positive, with investors closely monitoring U.S. real yields, a weakening dollar, and forthcoming economic data [1] - If the data suggests a slowdown in the U.S. economy, gold is expected to rebound in the following week [1]

对冲基金巨头Point72资产管理公司策略师兼经济学家Sophia Drossos表示，随着美元走弱，与人工智能 (AI)热潮密切相关的亚洲经济体货币，有望在明年成为最大受益者。 Drossos指出，美元贬值趋势将持续至2026年，尽管跌幅将较今年迄今7.1%的回落幅度有所收窄。她认 为此轮美元走弱的最大受益者，可能来自那些货币表现未能跟上AI相关股票大涨势头的亚洲国家。 在经历连续四年下跌后，韩元在2025年迄今仅微升约1%。受中美贸易紧张局势缓和影响，离岸人民币 同期涨幅虽然超过3%，但仅位列今年亚洲货币涨幅第五位。 Drossos表示，随着美国联邦政府结束停摆，新公布的经济数据很可能显示经济增长正在放缓。这将为 美联储12月降息铺平道路，进而导致美元走弱。 受贸易紧张局势和经济前景担忧影响，今年十国集团所有货币兑美元均实现升值。尽管美国股指创下历 史新高，但美元指数正朝着2017年以来最差年度表现迈进。 "尽管美国经济表现不俗，但其他国家的表现更为亮眼，"Drossos表示，"全球投资者已纷纷把握其他经 济体的估值优势。" "随着AI主题在全球范围拓展，我会重点关注中国和韩国，"她在纽约接受采访时表示， ...

美联储哈玛克表示，尽管美元并不是央行讨论中的核心议题，但今年美元的走弱似乎并不令人担忧。哈 马克说："我认为今年关于美元以及其走弱的讨论很多。但重要的是要记住，我们是从美元极度强势的 状态开始的，因此今年的走弱在很大程度上只是让美元更接近理论上的公允估值，与其他货币相比更为 合理。"哈马克还表示，利率政策应保持限制性，这样才能对仍令人担忧的通胀水平施加下行压力。她 指出："鉴于美联储在通胀和就业方面的双重使命面临挑战，这是货币政策的一个艰难时期。""但综合 来看，我认为我们需要保持一定程度的紧缩，以继续对通胀施压，使通其回落到我们的目标水 平。"（格隆汇） ...

摘要今日周岁（11月13日）欧盘时段，黄金价格持续攀升，一度触及4213美元的三周高位。美国因政府 停摆致经济数据延迟发布，或暴露经济增长乏力，强化了市场对美联储12月降息的预期，美元承压为黄 金提供支撑。虽美国政府停摆结束、风险情绪回暖限制避险买盘，但金价稳于4200美元上方，彰显多头 强势主导地位。 美联储降息+流动性宽松双轮驱动，黄金与美股齐涨，但通胀预期高悬。彭博策略师McGlone认为，黄 金有望进一步甩开标普500。McGlone指出，美股财富效应超GDP两倍，创百年纪录；标普相对GDP与 全球股市估值达2.3倍（11年前仅1倍）。若向黄金比率靠拢，将引发严重通缩。 美联储独立性受威胁的担忧，已推动金价创历史新高。StoneX分析师奥康奈尔认为，若最高法院支持总 统解雇权，金价可能再涨500美元。分析人士认为，特朗普此举意在安插支持大幅降息的鸽派理事，削 弱美联储独立性。奥康奈尔表示，若裁决有利于总统，将重创美联储公信力，利好黄金并可能压低美 元。尽管口头辩论即将举行，但最终判决不会很快出台，库克短期内将继续留任。目前美联储虽已降 息，但鲍威尔强调12月进一步行动并非必然，市场预计降息概率为65% ...

金价延续涨势创三周新高美联储降息预期与美元疲软双重利好 周四金价在基本面支撑下吸引跟进买盘。 经济忧虑与美联储降息预期令美元承压，利好贵金属走势。 加之投资者仍倾向于美联储采取更鸽派立场，市场已将12月FOMC会议再次降息25个基点的概率定价在60%左右。这反过来对美元构成阻力，并在周四欧洲 时段为无收益的黄金提供支撑。 亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克周三表示："实时指标显示就业市场处于微妙的平衡状态，我认为短期内出现严重劳动力市场衰退的可能性不大。"他进 一步补充道："目前几乎没有迹象表明价格压力和政策下行风险会助长通胀野兽。" 交易员将继续密切关注多位有影响力的联邦公开市场委员会成员的讲话，以获取更多关于美联储未来降息路径的线索。这种前景将对推动美元需求起到关键 作用。尽管如此，基本面背景表明，XAU/USD货币对的阻力最小的路径仍是向上。 美国政府重启带来的乐观情绪未能抑制该商品涨势。 周四欧洲时段前半段，黄金（XAU/USD）延续三日涨势，攀升至三周新高。投资者普遍预期，因美国政府停摆持续，延迟发布的宏观经济数据将显露经济 疲态，促使美联储12月进一步降息。这对无收益的黄金构成额外利好。 此外，美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate's passage of the funding and extension bill paves the way to end the government shutdown, while poor employment data suggests the Federal Reserve may continue its rate cuts, supporting gold prices amid rising geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar [1][3]. Market Summary - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.27% to $4,133.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased by 1.52% to $51.08 per ounce [1]. - The U.S. announced a suspension of export control penetration rules from November 10, 2025, to November 9, 2026 [1]. - The ADP reported a decline of 11,250 jobs in the private sector every two weeks, totaling a loss of 45,000 jobs for the month, excluding government employees [1][3]. - The market outlook indicates a period of consolidation [3].

Core Insights - The report by Thu Lan Nguyen from Deutsche Bank suggests that a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown could negatively impact the dollar if delayed data supports further interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent dollar appreciation is attributed to the absence of official data during the shutdown, which has reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve may pause further rate cuts [1] - Delayed data may indicate a weakening labor market alongside rising inflation, which could influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Focus - The Federal Reserve may prioritize employment over inflation, as managing employment levels is perceived to be more challenging [1] - The recent decline in rate cut expectations is viewed as unreasonable and is interpreted as another argument for a weaker dollar [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold is expected to fluctuate, and there is still a probability of filling the previous gap. The medium - and long - term positive logic for gold remains, including potential Fed rate cuts, a weakening dollar, and central bank gold purchases due to global political and economic instability. It is recommended to hold the remaining long positions in gold medium - term and set stop - profits. For options, wait for opportunities to buy call options again [6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - **Price Movement**: Since 2025, the price of the London gold and Shanghai gold indexes has increased by 51.55% and 49.17% respectively. Last week, they decreased by - 0.64% and - 0.07% respectively [4][17]. - **Inflation**: In June 2022, the CPI reached a high of 9.1% and then declined. The PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since February 2024, the CPI rebounded, and the decline of core inflation slowed or even reversed. In August, the PCE increased to 2.74% year - on - year, and the core PCE to 2.91%. In September, the US CPI inflation rose slightly, while the core CPI fell slightly and was lower than expected [4][20]. - **Interest Rates**: From mid - to late October 2023, the US medium - term Treasury bond yields declined until January this year. Since February 2024, they have rebounded, then fluctuated and declined near last year's high. Since September, they have fallen below the 2024 low and reached a new low [4][24]. - **Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the global gold supply - demand balance became less loose, mainly due to a large increase in investment demand. In China, gold supply increased slightly year - on - year, and demand also recovered, mainly due to a significant increase in investment demand. The central bank's gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. The domestic gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, mainly due to a significant increase in gold bars and coins. In the first half of 2025, investment demand increased significantly [4]. - **US Economy**: In August 2025, the US added 22,000 jobs, far lower than the market expectation of 70,000, reaching the lowest level since October last year. In August 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.4%, up 0.1% from the previous month. The unemployment rate in July remained at 4.3%. The non - farm employment data in August 2025 continued to be significantly weaker than expected [4][33]. 3.2 Strategy View and Outlook - **Outlook**: Last Friday, the main gold futures contract rebounded after hitting a low, with support at the 30 - day moving average. Gold is expected to fluctuate, and there is a chance to fill the previous gap. After the sharp rise in gold due to the Fed rate - cut expectations, the US government shutdown, and tariff hikes since the end of August, on the evening of October 21, the international gold price dropped significantly. The reasons are the decline in risk - aversion sentiment and profit - taking triggered by the overbought technical condition. However, the medium - and long - term positive factors for gold still exist [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold the remaining long positions in gold medium - term and set stop - profits. Wait for opportunities to buy call options [6]. 3.3 Industry Chain Structure (Periodic and Spot Markets) - Gold prices stopped falling last week. Since 2025, the London gold and Shanghai gold indexes have increased by 51.55% and 49.17% respectively, and last week they decreased by - 0.64% and - 0.07% respectively [15][17]. 3.4 Gold Supply and Demand - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: When the gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, it is conducive to rising gold prices; when it is in a weak balance, the impact on gold prices is small. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand became less loose, and in China, the supply increased slightly year - on - year while demand recovered, mainly due to increased investment demand [4][37]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In the second quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases continued to decline to 166.46 tons from 248.57 tons in the first quarter. From November 2022 to April 2024, the People's Bank of China continuously bought gold. After six consecutive months without purchases, it bought gold from November 2024 to September 2025, with a total purchase of 44.16 tons since 2024 [41]. - **ETF Demand**: In 2023, the gold holdings of ETFs decreased by 113.69 tons, and in 2024, they decreased by 28.46 tons. As of November 5, last week, gold ETFs increased their holdings by 1.55 tons, and in 2025, the holdings increased by 254.68 tons [45]. 3.5 Exchange Rate and Dollar Index - The domestic gold market has a slight premium over the international market. The report also presents data on the RMB exchange rate, the dollar index, and the exchange rates between the dollar and other currencies [69]. 3.6 Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio - The report provides data on the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio [73][75].