当地时间9月16日，前美国劳工统计局局长埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗在上月被美总统特朗普突然解职后首次公开 发声。她警告称，解雇政府首席劳工统计学家是一个"危险的举动"，将带来严重的经济后果。 此前，美国劳工部在8月1日公布的非农业部门就业数据显著低于市场预期。7月美国失业率环比升高0.1 个百分点至4.2%，当月非农业部门新增就业岗位7.3万，低于市场预期的11万。同时，美国5月和6月非 农业部门新增就业岗位数量从此前公布的14.4万和14.7万分别大幅下调至1.9万和1.4万，显示美国就业市 场明显降温。特朗普在数据发布仅几小时后，便下令解雇时任劳工统计局局长埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗，指责 她"出于政治目的操纵就业数据"，但并未提供任何证据。 （文章来源：央视新闻） ...

美国就业市场最近传来了一个令人担忧的信号：找工作超过半年的人越来越多了。 根据最新数据，现在超过四分之一的失业者已经失业超过六个月，这可是疫情以来从未有过的高点。仅 仅在今年8月，就有190多万美国人陷入了"长期失业"的状态——这个数字几乎是2023年初的两倍！ 长期失业通常意味着一个人已经耗尽了失业救济金，也把之前的存款用得差不多了。更糟糕的是，长期 处于"投简历-被拒绝"的死循环中，很多人会逐渐失去信心，甚至干脆退出职场。 Indeed招聘网站的经济研究主管劳拉·乌尔里希就指出，美国现在正处于一个尴尬状态："岗位不多，裁 员不多，但一旦你失业了，再就业就变得特别难。" 而这种"失业难再就业"的趋势，也反映出了整体就业市场的降温。虽然官方失业率还维持在4.3%，看 起来不高，但企业招聘已经明显冷却了。因为关税、政策不确定性等因素，很多公司干脆暂停了招聘。 与此同时，裁员人数开始增加，申请失业救济的人数已达到2021年10月以来的最高点。 更令人担忧的一点是：现在美国失业人口的总数，已经超过了职位空缺数。这在过去四年里是第一次出 现，说明找工作的人比公司开放的岗位还多。 这背后的含义远不止"找工作难"那么简单 ...

Group 1: Economic Data and Federal Reserve Expectations - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% after seasonal adjustment, while core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [1] - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021, exceeding both the previous value of 236,000 and the expected 235,000 [1] - The market has fully priced in three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year, indicating a strong expectation for monetary easing [1][7] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Trends - Inflation data shows that CPI and core CPI growth rates align with expectations, suggesting limited impact from tariffs on overall prices, while certain goods like new and used cars and housing still exhibit price stickiness [2][3] - Despite stable overall inflation, specific categories such as clothing and energy have shown price increases, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [2] - The employment market is cooling, with non-farm payrolls only increasing by 22,000 in August and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years [5][6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Following the CPI and jobless claims data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4%, the dollar index declined, and U.S. stocks reached new highs, reflecting investor concerns over employment data [9] - The potential for a "stagflation-like" scenario exists if inflation rises unexpectedly alongside a deteriorating job market, which could limit the Federal Reserve's policy options [8] - The performance of financial markets post-rate cuts will depend heavily on the U.S. economy's ability to achieve a soft landing; otherwise, significant market adjustments may occur [9]

Group 1 - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. decreased to 7.181 million at the end of July, marking a drop of 176,000 from the previous month, the lowest level in 10 months [1][2] - The hiring rate remained unchanged at 3.3%, the lowest level since 2013, indicating a cooling labor market [2] - The number of layoffs increased by 12,000 to 1.808 million, with the private sector layoff rate rising to 1.3%, up from a historical low of 1% a year ago [2] Group 2 - Consumer spending growth is expected to slow down to 1.3% in Q3 and 1.1% in Q4 due to rising prices and a slowing job market, compared to a 1.6% increase in Q2 [3] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is anticipated to show a job increase of 75,000, falling below the critical threshold of 100,000, with the unemployment rate expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3% [4] - Federal Reserve officials are divided on the pace of future monetary easing, with some suggesting a potential rate cut of 25 basis points in September [4][6] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs and ongoing uncertainties is affecting hiring plans, with many companies likely to slow down recruitment until they have clarity on costs [2][5] - The current policy interest rate is seen as consistent with a fully employed labor market, but inflation remains a concern, exceeding the Fed's 2% target [5] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve regarding employment and price stability will influence future policy decisions, with a focus on data-driven assessments [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two more times next year, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 3% to 3.25% from the current 4.25% to 4.5% [1] - As of the evening of the 13th, the U.S. interest rate futures market shows a 93% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 7% probability for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The probability of a 50 basis point cut increased due to comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet, who suggested that a significant rate cut is feasible given recent weak employment data [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the non-farm payroll data for July was significantly weaker than market expectations, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% and only 73,000 new jobs added, below the expected 110,000 [1] - The job additions for May and June were also revised down significantly, indicating a noticeable cooling in the U.S. labor market [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year, each by 25 basis points, and two more times next year [1][4] - After these five rate cuts, the federal funds rate will be reduced to a range of 3% to 3.25%, down from the current level of 4.25% to 4.5% [4] - As of August 13, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is 93%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 7% [4] Group 2 - The probability of a 50 basis point cut in September increased due to comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset, who advocates for significant rate cuts [4][5] - Recent employment data has shown a notable decline, with July's non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000 [4] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, indicating a cooling labor market [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates a cooling labor market in the U.S., as evidenced by rising unemployment claims, which supports expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2][4] - As of the week ending July 26, the number of individuals continuing to claim unemployment benefits increased by 38,000 to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating a weakening labor market [2][4] - Despite the increase in unemployment claims, the initial claims for unemployment benefits remain relatively low, suggesting that while companies are reducing hiring, they are not aggressively laying off existing employees [4][8] Group 2 - The recent non-farm payroll report showed a significant slowdown in U.S. employment, raising concerns among investors and economists about further deterioration in the labor market [8] - Companies are hesitant to hire new employees but are also not rushing to lay off current staff, reflecting uncertainty in the economic environment influenced by policies such as tariffs [7][8] - Some large companies, including Merck and Intel, have begun layoffs, and Stanford University plans to cut over 300 jobs due to federal funding reductions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden cooling of the U.S. job market is prompting speculation about whether the Federal Reserve will repeat its previous aggressive rate cuts in response to weak employment data [2][7][10] Group 1: Employment Data - The latest non-farm payroll data for July shows a significant slowdown in the U.S. labor market, with only 73,000 new jobs added, far below market expectations [4] - The private sector added only 3,000 jobs in June and 83,000 in July, while the manufacturing sector has seen job losses for three consecutive months, averaging a reduction of 13,000 jobs per month [4][6] - The unemployment rate rose from 4.117% to 4.248%, with a decrease of 260,000 in the number of employed individuals according to household surveys [6] Group 2: Market Reactions - The unexpected weak employment report has led to increased speculation about the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September rising significantly [7][8] - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged from below 40% to nearly 90%, with a high likelihood of a 25 basis point reduction [7][8] Group 3: Economic Context - Unlike last year, the current economic challenges include inflation concerns due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [10] - Analysts believe that the risk of sustained inflation is low in the context of weak demand and a soft labor market, which may influence the Fed's future rate decisions [10]

Group 1 - The report highlights the allocation value of equity assets based on the "see-saw effect" between stocks, bonds, and commodities, suggesting a favorable outlook for equity investments [5][7] - Global stock markets mostly declined in the week ending August 1, 2025, while major commodity futures saw mixed results, with oil and gold prices rising, and copper and aluminum prices falling [5][6] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added, which was below expectations, raising concerns about the labor market [9][10] Group 2 - In the domestic equity market, growth stocks outperformed, with an average daily trading volume of 1.787 trillion yuan, while 6 sectors rose and 25 sectors fell [6][18] - The report notes that the recent volatility in commodity prices has not been mirrored in stock prices, indicating a potential divergence in market behavior [7] - The U.S. employment data revealed a concerning trend, with revisions showing a cumulative reduction of 253,000 jobs in May and June, leading to increased market skepticism regarding the reliability of U.S. economic data [11][12] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of the U.S. employment data on market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in September following the disappointing job numbers [15][16] - The report also mentions the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, 2025, which may affect bond market dynamics [17] - The analysis indicates that the service sector drove job growth in July, while the production sector remained weak, reflecting broader economic challenges [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights the recent developments regarding U.S. tariffs and employment data, indicating a potential impact on the economy and market sentiment. Group 1: Tariff Developments - U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer stated that President Trump has finalized a new round of tariffs on multiple countries, which will not be adjusted during current negotiations [2][3] - Specific tariffs include 35% on goods imported from Canada, 50% on Brazil, 25% on India, and 39% on Switzerland [2][3] Group 2: Employment Data Concerns - President Trump accused former Labor Statistics Bureau Director Erica McEntyre of artificially inflating employment data before the election, claiming it resulted in a "historic high" that was later revised down by nearly 1 million jobs [4] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase in the unemployment rate for July, with non-farm payrolls underperforming market expectations, indicating a cooling job market [4][5] - The downward revision of employment figures for May and June has led to significant dissatisfaction within the Trump administration, resulting in McEntyre's dismissal [4]