Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of critical economic data, including the October CPI, which is essential for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1][2] - The shutdown began on October 1 due to a failure to reach an agreement on a temporary spending bill between the Republican and Democratic parties, and it officially ended on November 12 when President Trump signed a temporary funding bill [1] - During the shutdown, the release of September and October non-farm employment data was also delayed, and the September CPI data was released nearly 10 days late [2] Economic Data Impact - The October CPI data, which typically reflects inflation trends for the previous month, was expected to be crucial for economic analysis but may never be published due to the shutdown [1] - The September CPI showed a year-over-year increase of 3%, which was below market expectations of 3.1%, and the previous value was 2.9% [2] - The core CPI for September also rose by 3% year-over-year, again falling short of the anticipated 3.1% [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. government is experiencing a prolonged shutdown, leading to a halt in the release of key economic data, which complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for the upcoming December meeting [1][2] - The October CPI report, originally scheduled for release next week, is now in jeopardy, with the Labor Statistics Bureau potentially abandoning its publication altogether [1][2] - The absence of official inflation and employment data will prolong and complicate the debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the necessity of another rate cut in December [1][2] Data Vacuum and Decision-Making Challenges - The current situation poses significant challenges for the Federal Reserve, which relies heavily on data for decision-making [2] - The lack of recent employment reports and key inflation data is undermining the foundation of policy-making [2] - The absence of official data may strengthen the position of FOMC members concerned about the risk of inflation accelerating again, potentially leading to a decision to maintain interest rates [2] Alternative Indicators - During this period of missing official data, some private sector employment reports are helping to fill the gaps, but alternative inflation indicators are harder to obtain and less comprehensive [4] - The Cleveland Fed's "nowcast" model suggests that the year-on-year increase in October CPI may be similar to the lower-than-expected 3% in September [5] - However, these alternative indicators cannot fully replace the authority of official reports, and the absence of timely data increases decision-making costs [5] Future Scenarios and Implications - The Federal Reserve's final decision in December will heavily depend on when the government shutdown ends and how quickly economic data can catch up [6] - Various scenarios have been proposed regarding the potential impact of data recovery on policy decisions, including the release of outdated employment reports [6][7] - If the government reopens by the end of November, the market may see the September employment report before the December meeting, but it may not be sufficient to convince the Fed to pause rate cuts [6] - If both September and October employment reports are released, and the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.3%, a pause in rate cuts becomes a possible option [7] - In an ideal scenario where three complete employment reports are available, the decision will hinge on the unemployment rate, with specific thresholds influencing the Fed's actions [7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% - 4.00%, marking the second rate cut of the year [1] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low as of August [1] - The Federal Reserve is committed to supporting maximum employment and restoring inflation to the 2% target [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 3% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, below the market expectation of 3.1% [2] - The core CPI also rose by 3% year-over-year, matching the previous value but below market expectations [2] - The ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, the largest decline since March 2023, significantly below the expected increase of 50,000 jobs [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve plans to complete its total securities holdings reduction by December 1, after which the principal repayments from mortgage-backed securities will be reinvested in short-term Treasury bonds [3] - A majority of the Federal Open Market Committee members voted in favor of the 25 basis point rate cut, while two members had differing opinions on the extent of the cut [3] Group 4 - The last Federal Reserve meeting of the year is scheduled for December 9-10 [4]

Macro News - The recent China-U.S. trade talks led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen resulted in constructive discussions on key economic issues, including maritime logistics, shipbuilding industry measures, and agricultural trade [1] - The U.S. September CPI data came in below expectations, with the annual rate at 3% compared to the expected 3.10%, which has led traders to bet on two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] Institutional Views - The better-than-expected U.S. CPI data has cleared the way for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, supporting precious metal prices [2] - The recent China-U.S. trade negotiations have improved market risk sentiment, which has exerted some downward pressure on precious metals [2] - The upcoming "super central bank week" is expected to increase market volatility, with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan all holding meetings amid economic risks from a potential government shutdown in the U.S. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, due to optimistic Sino - US consultations and US CPI being lower than expected, the gold price continued to decline. The trade optimistic expectation returned, increasing the downward pressure on the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to - 0.3 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, with the Sino - US trade negotiation progressing optimistically and CPI being weaker than expected, the silver price declined. The premium of Shanghai silver slightly expanded to 290 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment remained strong. The trade optimistic expectation returned, strengthening the downward pressure on the silver price [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.45% to $4126.90 per ounce. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, most European major stock indexes rose, US Treasury yields rose collectively, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 5.35 basis points to 4.001%, the US dollar index was flat at 98.94, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1262 [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures fell 0.60% to $48.41 per ounce. The market situation was similar to that of gold in terms of stock indexes, Treasury yields, and exchange rates [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 1.07, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants was 87015 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 21, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants was 664971 kg, with a daily increase of 1605 kg; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - All - day: The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27th to 30th, and the heads of the central bank, the banking and insurance regulatory commission, and the securities regulatory commission will give keynote speeches; US President Trump will visit Japan until October 29th. - 09:15: China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for September. - 16:15: RBA Governor Bullock will participate in a fireside chat. - 17:00: Germany's October IFO business climate index and the eurozone's September money supply M3. - TBD: A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. - 20:30: US durable goods orders for September. - 22:30: US October Dallas Fed business activity index [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the gold price was difficult to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectation and the reality will continue, and the sentiment of the gold price is high and still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - Silver: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly followed the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1,690 to 169,611, a decrease of 0.99%; the short - position volume decreased by 1,057 to 66,178, a decrease of 1.57%; the net position decreased by 633 to 103,433, a decrease of 0.61% [30]. - Silver: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 7,473 to 353,609, a decrease of 2.07%; the short - position volume decreased by 4,217 to 265,839, a decrease of 1.56%; the net position decreased by 3,256 to 87,770, a decrease of 3.58% [33].

Core Insights - The report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that both overall and core inflation in September were below expectations, paving the way for the Federal Reserve to consider further rate cuts [1] - Following the release of the CPI data, traders increased their bets on the Federal Reserve making two more rate cuts this year [1] - Futures contracts linked to the Federal Reserve's policy rate show rising expectations for a further rate cut at the January meeting next year [1] - According to Minsheng Securities, the core inflation in September is expected to continue a moderate upward trend, suggesting that the market's pricing of a rate cut in October is unlikely to be reversed [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the September CPI data has minimal impact on recent Federal Reserve policy discussions, with a rate cut next week being almost certain [1] - The CPI data will stimulate discussions regarding the measures policymakers will take in December, especially if similar CPI data appears against a backdrop of a weakening job market [1] - There remains uncertainty regarding the release of government data, which adds to the unpredictability of future policy decisions [1] Group 2 - It is noted that the Federal Reserve policymakers are currently placing greater emphasis on employment rather than CPI [1]

Core Insights - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. CPI report for September, with expectations of a 0.4% increase in overall CPI and a 0.3% rise in core CPI compared to the previous month [1] - Despite the ongoing government shutdown, which has entered its fourth week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will still release the inflation report to assist the Social Security Administration in determining annual cost-of-living adjustments for millions of retirees and other beneficiaries in 2026 [1] - Analysts believe that the CPI data is unlikely to hinder the Federal Reserve's plan to cut rates by 25 basis points next week, but it may provide clues regarding potential actions at the Fed's December meeting [1] - Traders have largely priced in expectations for a rate cut next week and another cut at the December meeting [1] - Barclays Private Bank's Chief Market Strategist, Julien Lafargue, stated that the CPI data would need to significantly exceed expectations to alter market perceptions regarding further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The Russia-Ukraine crisis is easing [2]. - Silver: It is in a volatile rebound [2]. - Copper: Market sentiment has improved, leading to price increases [2]. - Zinc: Attention should be paid to LME inventories [2]. - Lead: Inventory is continuously decreasing, resulting in price increases [2]. - Tin: Focus on macro - economic impacts [2]. - Aluminum: The price center is moving up; Alumina is in bottom - range oscillation; Cast aluminum alloy has upward potential [2]. - Nickel: It shows short - term narrow - range oscillation, and contradictions are still accumulating [2]. - Stainless steel: There is no upward driving force in supply and demand, but cost limits the downside space [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold,沪金2512 closed at 952.56 with a daily decline of 4.17%, and its night - session price was 934.72 with a decline of 1.56%. For silver,沪银2512 closed at 11404 with a daily decline of 3.42%, and its night - session price was 11331 with a gain of 0.04%. Trading volumes and open interests of various contracts also changed to different extents [4]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Gold and silver inventories in different markets changed, and there were also changes in various spreads such as cross - period spreads and basis spreads [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver trend intensities are both - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 85400 with a daily gain of 0.02%, and its night - session price was 86730 with a gain of 1.56%. Trading volumes and open interests of沪铜 and伦铜3M also changed [9]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Copper inventories in沪铜 and伦铜 changed, and various spreads such as LME copper spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [9]. - **Industry News**: Peru's copper production in August decreased by 1.6% year - on - year. Codelco plans to sell copper to European customers at a record - high premium next year. China's copper import and export data in September also changed [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a bullish outlook [11]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪锌主力 was 22345 with a daily gain of 1.57%, and伦锌3M closed at 3019.5 with a gain of 0.87%. Trading volumes and open interests of沪锌 and伦锌 also changed [12]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Zinc inventories in沪锌 and LME changed, and various spreads such as LME zinc spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪铅主力 was 17565 with a daily gain of 2.27%, and伦铅3M closed at 1995 with a gain of 0.10%. Trading volumes and open interests of沪铅 and伦铅 also changed [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Lead inventories in沪铅 and LME decreased, and various spreads such as LME lead spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 1, indicating a bullish outlook [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪锡主力 was 281680 with a daily gain of 0.29%, and伦锡3M closed at 35475 with a gain of 0.50%. Trading volumes and open interests of沪锡 and伦锡 also changed [19]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Tin inventories in沪锡 and伦锡 changed, and various spreads such as LME tin spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: For aluminum,沪铝主力 and LME aluminum prices changed, and trading volumes and open interests also had different trends. For alumina and cast aluminum alloy, prices, trading volumes, and open interests also changed [23]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Aluminum inventories in different markets changed, and various spreads such as LME aluminum spreads and cross - period spreads also had different changes [23]. - **Industry News**: China will focus on building a modern industrial system, and the US established a critical minerals fund [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are 1, indicating a bullish outlook; Alumina trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪镍主力 was 121380, and that of stainless steel主力 was 12765. Trading volumes and open interests of沪镍 and stainless steel also changed [26]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mining area was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports, and Indonesia imposed sanctions on mining companies [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [28].

Core Insights - The chief economist of the UK research institution CEPR, Dean Baker, suggests that the US September CPI data is likely to show a growth rate similar to that of August [1] Inflation Data Summary - In August, the energy component increased by 0.7%, and a similar rapid growth is expected for September [1] - The food component for households rose by 0.6% in August, with a potential slowdown in growth for September [1] - The core CPI month-on-month rate for September is anticipated to reach 0.3%, rounding up to possibly show 0.4% [1] - Both the overall and core CPI year-on-year rates for September are expected to be close to 3.0%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0% by a full percentage point [1] Implications for Federal Reserve - The inflation level may be less concerning than its direction of change for the Federal Reserve [1] - There is a likelihood of rising inflation rates until the full impact of tariffs is passed on to consumers [1] - The situation could become more complex if new tariffs are implemented affecting more industries [1] - It is difficult to envision inflation reaching the Federal Reserve's target in the short term unless a significant recession occurs [1]