Joining us for for more right now in the markets is Liz Thomas. She is SoFi's head of investment strategy. And Liz, it's good to see you. Good to see you, too.All right, let's talk about where things stand. We are ending the third quarter. We're heading into October.Some people think it could be spooky, but hey, we are looking at the markets near all-time highs. In fact, if we open at these levels, probably push us back above um all-time high levels. How do you feel about things overall.Well, I mean, the th ...

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase, opening at $3410.91 per ounce and closing at $3445.48 per ounce, with a peak of $3447.63 per ounce on August 29 [1]. Economic Data - In July, U.S. personal spending rose by 0.5%, matching market expectations, while the core PCE price index year-on-year was recorded at 2.9%, also in line with expectations [2]. - The U.S. unemployment rate is expected to rise, with 63% of consumers anticipating an increase in the unemployment rate over the next year, reflecting growing concerns about the economic outlook [4]. Consumer Confidence - The final consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for August dropped to 58.2, down from 61.7 in July, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment [3][4]. - Concerns over high prices have led to a decrease in the conditions for purchasing durable goods, reaching a one-year low [3]. Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is at 12.6%, while the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is at 87.4% [8]. - Federal Reserve officials are facing a tension between inflation targets and labor market conditions, with discussions around potential policy adjustments [4]. Trade and Tariff Developments - A U.S. appeals court ruled that many of President Trump's global tariff measures are illegal, stating that the president exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [6]. - The court's decision allows the tariffs to remain in effect until October 14, pending an appeal to the Supreme Court [6]. Geopolitical Context - The European Commission has plans to send troops to Ukraine, with ongoing discussions with the U.S. regarding support for Ukraine's armed forces [7]. - Germany and France are advocating for secondary sanctions aimed at weakening Russia's war funding capabilities [7]. Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 9.74 tons, bringing the total to 977.68 tons [7].

Economic Outlook - The private sector employment growth is expected to further slow down in August, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2% due to weak labor growth driven by a sharp decline in net immigration [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's independence is facing challenges, particularly from Trump, which is reflected in the steepening of the Treasury yield curve, increasing uncertainty in policy direction [1][4] Inflation and Consumer Spending - The July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, remaining stable compared to June [2] - Core PCE, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.3% month-on-month and accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year, the highest level since February [2][3] - Consumer spending grew by 0.5% in July, indicating resilience in demand despite persistent inflation, although consumer confidence data from the University of Michigan fell short of expectations [2][3] Stock Market Trends - The recent week saw a net inflow of $571 million into U.S. equity funds, reversing the previous week's outflow of $2.39 billion [6] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced a four-month consecutive rise, although there was a late-week sell-off [5][6] - Concerns over the artificial intelligence sector have emerged, particularly following Nvidia's earnings report, which did not meet high investor expectations, leading to a 5% drop in the company's stock [6] Sector Performance - The utilities sector saw the largest decline at 2.1%, followed by consumer goods at 1.7% and industrials at 0.8%, while the energy sector rose by 2.5% [6] - The market is closely monitoring the performance of major technology stocks, especially in the AI industry, amid warnings of a potential AI bubble [6]

Group 1 - Investors are reassessing the significant market rally from last Friday, as Jerome Powell did not make any new strong commitments [1] - The market experienced a "risk appetite frenzy" last Friday, with major indices like the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rising approximately 1.75%, while small-cap stocks surged nearly 4% [3] - By Monday, the market sentiment shifted from excitement to hesitation, leading to declines in major indices, with the Dow dropping 350 points (0.8%) and the S&P 500 down 28 points (0.4%) [4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is currently experiencing a divide, with some officials ready to cut rates in response to economic weakness, while others remain unconvinced [5] - Despite signs of a weakening job market, inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5] - The upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index report is expected to show a year-over-year increase of 2.9%, indicating that the battle against inflation is far from over [5][6] Group 3 - Market focus has shifted from whether the Fed will cut rates in September to how aggressive the Fed will be in the coming months, with expectations now leaning towards a symbolic 25 basis point cut [6] - The change in rate cut expectations suggests that investors will likely adjust stock valuations downward until a clearer market direction is established [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have led to a significant drop in the US dollar and a surge in gold prices, with traders anticipating a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut before September [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices closed up $33.05, or 0.98%, at $3,371.51 per ounce following Powell's remarks [2]. - The US dollar index fell nearly 1%, making gold relatively cheaper for buyers holding other currencies [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Upcoming US economic data includes durable goods orders, GDP, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is favored by the Federal Reserve [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Despite the recent surge, gold has not yet broken the $3,400 per ounce resistance level; if it does, the next resistance levels are $3,452 (June 16 high) and $3,500 (historical high) [4]. - If gold prices retreat, support may be found at the 50-day simple moving average around $3,350 per ounce, followed by the 20-day moving average at $3,345 and the 100-day moving average at $3,309 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the possibility of adjusting the monetary policy stance, interpreted by the market as a signal for potential interest rate cuts [1][2]. Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy has shown resilience amid comprehensive policy changes this year, with the labor market close to maximum employment and inflation rates significantly down from post-pandemic highs [1]. - Inflationary risks have diminished, while risks to employment are increasing, allowing the Fed to act cautiously when considering policy adjustments [1][2]. Monetary Policy Strategy - The Fed released a revised statement on its long-term goals and monetary policy strategy, returning to a flexible inflation targeting framework [1]. - The statement clarifies the Fed's approach during periods when employment and inflation goals do not align, emphasizing a balanced method to achieve dual mandate objectives [1]. Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, U.S. stock indices collectively rose, with reports suggesting that his remarks paved the way for a potential restart of interest rate cuts [2]. - Market traders widely anticipate a reduction in the federal funds rate target range by at least 25 basis points in September, with the probability of such a cut rising to 89.1% [2]. Conference Significance - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is viewed as a significant platform for central banks to convey monetary policy signals, attracting global central bank leaders and economists [2].

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: Powell opens the door for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, indicating that changes in baseline outlook and risk balance may require an adjustment in policy stance [1] - Labor market: The labor market remains close to full employment levels, with significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, suggesting rising downside risks to employment [1] - Inflation outlook: Short-term inflation risks are skewed to the upside, while long-term inflation expectations appear stable, with a focus on preventing one-time price increases from evolving into persistent inflation issues [1] Group 2 - Tariff impact: The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are becoming clear, with expectations that this impact will continue to accumulate in the coming months, although the timing and magnitude remain highly uncertain [1] - Framework adjustment: The Federal Reserve has adopted a new policy framework, removing references to pursuing "inflation averaging 2% over the long term" and basing employment decisions on assessments of "the gap from maximum employment levels" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential need for policy adjustments due to a shift in risk balance, highlighting a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth and weakening consumer spending [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Current U.S. GDP growth is noticeably slowing, reflecting a decline in consumer spending [1] - The latest data shows that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year in July, while the core PCE price index increased by 2.9% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve will abandon the flexible average inflation targeting framework adopted in 2020, removing references to the effective lower bound on interest rates [1] - Powell stated that the labor market is in a "peculiar balance," with the policy interest rate at a moderately tight level [1] - The Fed is cautious in considering policy adjustments due to stable unemployment rates, aiming to prevent transient price increases from evolving into persistent inflation [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - Following Powell's speech, traders estimated a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to the speech [2] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts before the end of the year [2]

Group 1 - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped approximately 5 basis points to below 4.26%, with an overall decline of 7.4 basis points for the day [1] - Gold prices increased by 0.3%, reaching a new daily high and approaching $3,350 [1] - The S&P 500 rose by 1.3%, the Dow Jones gained 688 points with an increase exceeding 1.5%, and the Nasdaq climbed 265 points, up over 1.1% [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that a shift in risk balance may necessitate adjustments to policy [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is nearing a decision on interest rate cuts due to signs of a softening job market and a lack of sustained inflation driven by tariffs [1][3] - Mary Daly indicated that while the Fed's short-term borrowing cost remains at 4.25%-4.50%, future meetings may consider policy adjustments, with a possibility of more than two rate cuts if the labor market continues to weaken [3][4] - Recent labor data showed only 73,000 new jobs added in July, with significant downward revisions to previous months, indicating potential challenges in the employment sector [3][4] Group 2 - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2% in July, but Daly emphasized that this does not reflect extreme weakness in the job market [4] - There is no evidence that tariff-induced price increases are broadly affecting inflation, and the Fed may risk acting too late if it waits too long to ensure this is the case [4] - Daly expressed that the current policy may increasingly misalign with economic conditions, suggesting a need for adjustments to maintain downward pressure on inflation while ensuring sustainable employment [4]