2026年2月20日，美国经济分析局公布2025年第四季度及全年经济数据。2025年第四季度美国GDP年化 季环比初值为1.4%，远低于市场预期，较第三季度4.4%的增速出现明显放缓。2025年全年美国GDP增 长2.2%，低于2024年的2.8%。 数据显示，第四季度经济增速放缓主要受关税政策及政府停摆拖累。去年10月发生的43天政府停摆，导 致联邦财政支出按年化计算下降16.6%，拖累GDP约1个百分点。同时，在关税政策影响下美国进口额 仍呈增长态势，贸易逆差扩大趋势未改。 美国家庭的强劲消费在很大程度上抵消了上述负面因素。乔治·华盛顿大学经济学系主任塔拉·辛克莱表 示："这简直太不可思议了：美国消费者却一直在消费。我们知道人们对经济状况并不乐观，但这并没 有真正导致他们减少消费。" 多位经济学家指出美国经济前景暗藏隐忧。威尔明顿信托公司首席经济学家卢克·蒂利称："经济状况看 起来还算稳健，但仔细观察就会发现，实际情况却相当不稳定。"他估计美国未来出现经济衰退的可能 性约为45%，就业增长放缓、消费者信用卡及房贷违约率上升等信号，均显示经济已显露疲软态势。 复杂的经济信号加大了美联储政策制定难度。2025 ...

中东地缘紧张局势为美元走势增添不确定性。美国总统特朗普19日划定10天左右的最后期限，称美伊能 否达成协议将在此期间见分晓，伊朗必须与美国达成有意义的协议，否则将面临糟糕局面。美方消息显 示，美军已做好最早于本周末对伊朗发动军事打击的准备，若谈判失败，美方可能向中东增派航母打击 群，确保伊朗无法拥有核武器或导弹。地缘风险推升的避险需求对美元形成短期支撑，但局势的悬而未 决也让市场担忧后续波动对美元走势的冲击。 多重变量之下，美元未来走向的不确定性显著提升，后续仍需关注美联储政策调整动向与美伊局势的最 终走向，判断当前美元波动是阶段性反弹信号，还是霸权地位面临深层挑战的开端。 当前美元正站在关键十字路口，美联储政策内部分歧与中东地缘紧张局势交织，市场对美元后续走向的 判断陷入分化。 美联储1月27-28日会议纪要显示，官员们就维持基准利率不变达成基本共识，但对未来政策路径存在显 著分歧。若干参与者提出，若通胀按预期回落，进一步下调利率将是合适选择；部分参与者主张保持政 策利率稳定，需等待明确的去通胀信号后再考虑宽松；还有参与者提议在声明中加入双向政策表述，将 加息纳入潜在选项，虽该提议未获采纳，但反映出鹰派声音 ...

Group 1: US Labor Market and Unemployment Rate - The market was overly pessimistic about the US January unemployment rate, with 89% of investors expecting it to be above 4.4%, while the actual rate was below this expectation [2][17] - Strong job growth in both the service and manufacturing sectors, along with an increase in labor participation rate, alleviated concerns about an economic recession and provided more room for Federal Reserve policy adjustments [18] Group 2: Nasdaq 100 Index - 54% of investors expected the Nasdaq 100 to close between 25,000 and 25,500, while 22% anticipated it to be between 25,500 and 26,000, indicating optimism about tech stock earnings and confidence in AI sectors [5][20] - The index closed below 25,000, slightly under market expectations due to disappointing earnings from some leading tech companies and delayed rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [5][20] Group 3: London Gold - 78% of investors predicted London gold prices would close between 5,000 and 5,500, reflecting recognition of gold's safe-haven properties and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [7][22] - Gold prices aligned with market expectations, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks and persistent concerns about inflation [7][22] Group 4: London Silver - 38% of investors expected London silver prices to close between 80 and 90, while 30% anticipated prices to exceed 90, showing strong confidence in silver's safe-haven attributes [9][24] - Silver prices closed between 70 and 80, significantly below market expectations due to a strong dollar and weak industrial demand [9][24] Group 5: New York Crude Oil - 58% of investors believed New York crude oil prices would be above 65, driven by expectations of continued OPEC+ production cuts and optimism about global economic recovery [12][27] - Oil prices closed between 60 and 65, slightly below expectations due to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories and concerns about slowing global economic growth [12][27] Group 6: Overall Market Sentiment - The survey indicated that, except for London gold, the actual results for the other four financial products were below or significantly below market expectations, reflecting a tendency for investors to be overly pessimistic or optimistic about macroeconomic conditions [15][30] - The core driver of these expectations was the US employment data, which not only influenced precious metals and stock market performance but also altered market expectations for Federal Reserve policies, impacting commodity prices [15][30]

美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，央行当前的利率立场"完全适合"稳健的经济状况，这表明他目前并不急于重 启美联储在1月份暂停的降息举措。杰斐逊指出，尽管通胀率一直高于美联储设定的2%的目标，但预计 今年晚些时候通胀率下降的趋势将会重现。同时，他估计经济总体状况良好，2026年的经济增长率有望 达到约2.2%。他表示："我看到一些迹象表明，劳动力市场正趋于稳定，通胀有望回归到我们设定的2% 的目标水平，而且可持续的经济增长也将持续下去。"杰斐逊表示，去年9月至12月期间美联储实施的三 次降息，将利率调整至3.5%至3.75%的区间——接近市场对"中性水平"的预期，该水平既不会刺激也不 会抑制经济。他指出，这种立场在央行面临的两大风险之间取得了合理平衡。 (本文来自第一财经) ...

在这场全球金融市场的波动中，不同资产的表现背后反映了市场对经济形势和政策走向的不同预期。未 来，美股科技股能否止跌回升，贵金属市场能否延续强势，美联储政策又将如何调整，这些问题都将成 为市场关注的焦点。 与美股科技股的黯淡表现形成强烈反差的是，国际黄金在2月5日开盘后直线拉升，展现出强劲的上涨势 头。COMEX黄金期货收涨1.04%，报4986.4美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货表现更为突出，收涨5.36%， 报87.765美元/盎司。2月5日黄金高开后持续走高，截至发稿，现货黄金拉升涨幅超过1%；现货白银也 不甘示弱，拉升涨幅超过1.6%。贵金属市场的强势表现，吸引了众多投资者的目光。 美国经济数据方面传来不利消息。ADP周三发布的1月私营部门就业增长月度数据显示，当月仅增加2.2 万个岗位，这一数据远低于道琼斯调查经济学家预测的4.5万增幅。有分析指出，这份报告表明2026年 的开局基本延续了2025年的状态，呈现出招聘乏力、裁员不多的"低招低裁"就业环境。这种局面恐怕难 以缓解美联储政策制定者对经济仍需更多支持的担忧，美联储未来降息政策或因此生变数。 此外，美国劳工统计局（BLS）将1月就业报告发布时间推 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中国基金报 记者 储是 【导读】贵金属"崩了"，集体下挫 今日，贵金属市场"崩了"。全球股票市场中，已开盘的主要市场均下跌，港股三大指数再度大幅下挫。 港股三大指数大幅回撤 2206年2月2日，截至收盘，恒生指数盘中一度跌超3.2%，最终收跌2.23%，重挫超600点；恒生科技指数盘中一度下挫超4%，最终收跌3.36%；恒生国企 指数跌2.54%。今日跌幅超过3%的还有恒生生物科技指数，跌幅为3.70%。 盘面上，有色金属板块集体下挫，汽车股全天低迷，半导体芯片股、生物医药股、煤炭股、石油股、保险股等纷纷走低；博彩和酒业股逆市走强。 华泰证券分析指出，本轮调整主要源于指数短期快速上行后的技术性回撤，叠加美联储主席提名人沃什偏鹰派言论引发的情绪扰动，并非趋势性反转信 号。当前核心关注点在于波动持续性，一季度三大驱动逻辑依然坚实，分别是：全球货币政策预期边际转暖，流动性环境改善；企业盈利预期上修，经济 复苏带动盈利修复预期增强；南向资金与外资配置需求形成合力。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅▶ | | --- | --- | --- ...

美国经济数据呈现分化特征，消费端表现亮眼，12月零售销售环比增长0.8%，高于预期，印证消费韧性，为美联储维持当前利率水平提供支撑。 劳动力市场整体稳定，为美元筑牢底层经济支撑，而通胀及制造业景气度成为后续关注重点，2月3日公布的1月CPI数据将直接影响降息节奏预判。 主要货币对走势分化，进一步凸显汇市震荡格局。美元兑人民币运行平稳，2月2日银行间外汇市场人民币对美元中间价报6.9695，较前一交易日小幅下调17 个基点，即期汇率交投于6.9566附近，未出现大幅波动。 2026年2月2日，美元指数呈现震荡整理态势，受多重因素交织影响，短期缺乏明确单边走势方向，后续需重点关注通胀数据及主要央行政策信号，以预判走 势脉络。 美元兑日元受汇市协调预期及美国经济韧性支撑，在155-158区间宽幅波动，多空博弈激烈。美元兑欧元则受欧元区经济修复及欧央行决议预期影响，美欧 货币政策差博弈加剧，欧元兑美元维持在1.18上方震荡，对美元形成一定压制。 当前美元指数处于前期冲高回落后的均值回归阶段，最新收报97.140，日线布林带横向排布，短期围绕96.84-98.66区间震荡，多空动能均衡，暂无明确破位 迹象。 美联储政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market experienced significant turbulence, with gold prices witnessing the largest single-day drop since 1983, primarily driven by a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Market Impact - Gold prices fell from a historical high of $5598 per ounce to $4880 per ounce, marking a drop of nearly $670 within 30 hours, with a maximum intraday decline exceeding 12% [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75% and the indication that interest rate cuts are not imminent led to a sharp decline in market expectations for rate cuts, with the probability for a March cut dropping from 30% to 13.5% [3][5]. - The significant sell-off in gold was exacerbated by algorithmic stop-loss orders being triggered as prices fell below key support levels, alongside increased margin requirements from major exchanges [5][6]. Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market Response - The cryptocurrency market, while not experiencing the same level of volatility, faced adjustments due to macro liquidity expectations, with a total market capitalization of approximately $2.98 trillion [6][8]. - XBIT, a leading compliant crypto financial service provider, highlighted that the shift in Federal Reserve policy would accelerate the filtering of less practical altcoins from the market, while Ethereum's Layer-2 upgrades and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) are expected to drive future growth [6][8]. - The market showed a divergence in asset preferences, with some institutions reducing Bitcoin holdings in favor of gold, reflecting differing views on the two asset classes [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - XBIT anticipates that the recent drop in gold prices is a correction following excessive optimism, with ongoing geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases providing long-term support for gold [8]. - The cryptocurrency sector may continue to experience short-term panic, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to regulatory advancements and technological iterations [8]. - The recent market turbulence underscores the profound impact of macroeconomic factors, with compliance and technology emerging as key competitive advantages for the crypto industry [8].

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在杰罗姆·鲍威尔接班人的问题上终于下定了决心。 他最终选中的是凯文·沃什，也是四位最热门人选中的"另一个凯文"。 沃什2006年至2011年担任美联储理事期间，即使在金融危机最严重的时候也主张提高利率，并常常发出 通胀迫在眉睫的警告。就在2024年他还重申了这一担忧。但从去年起，沃什摇身一变成了压低借贷成本 的积极拥趸。 他的转变发生在总统唐纳德·特朗普对美联储降息施压白热化之际，而特朗普也已说得明明白白，他不 会选择一个不打算落实的人。 "美联储政策组合完全是错的 —— 它的资产负债表规模庞大，就像我们08年金融危机或是2020年疫情时 那样，而且利率也太高了，" 沃什去年7月说，"它需要缩减美联储负债表并降低利率。这样做，普通民 众才能获得更低的信贷成本。" 坚定鹰派 沃什长期以来一直对美联储的多项债券购买计划表示不满，金融危机之外实施的那些尤其如此。2011 年，他在时任美联储主席本·伯南克为刺激整体经济而启动第二轮购债后不久辞职。当时利率仍处于零 而且也无法进一步降低，美联储因此转而购买长债，希望借此抑制借贷成本。 现在沃什表示，缩减资产负债表（其实会对实际借贷成本造成上行压力） ...

Federal Reserve Chairman Announcement - President Trump is expected to announce his choice for the chairman of the Federal Reserve, likely Kevin Worsh, who previously met with the president [1][2] - Worsh is recognized in the financial world and was considered for the position during Trump's first term before Jay Powell was appointed [3] Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy - Worsh has expressed concerns about the current Federal Reserve's policies, suggesting that the balance sheet is too large and interest rates are too high, advocating for a reduction in both [5][7] - He believes the Fed has lost its way in terms of supervision and monetary policy, indicating a need for a shift in focus to benefit the entire economy, not just Wall Street [6][8] Growth Projections - Economic growth is projected to be strong, with expectations of 4-5% growth in the upcoming quarters, indicating a positive outlook for the economy [10][11] Venezuela Airspace Reopening - The U.S. plans to reopen Venezuelan airspace, allowing American citizens to travel safely to Venezuela, which has been restricted since 2019 [12][13] - This move is seen as a step towards improving the quality of life and economic conditions in Venezuela [14][15] Oil Market Impact - The influx of new oil on the market is expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices, leading to lower prices across the economy, contributing to disinflationary trends [16]