Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Polyethylene Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428), Gu Hengye (Futures Practice License No.: F03143348) [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 3: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Polyethylene Price Range Forecast (Monthly): 7200 - 7400 [3] - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 9.94% [3] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year): 11.1% [3] - Inventory Management Strategy: For high - level finished product inventory, sell L2509 futures at 25% ratio in the range of 7350 - 7400 and sell L2510C7400 call options at 50% ratio in the range of 50 - 100 [3] - Procurement Management Strategy: For low - level procurement inventory, buy L2509 futures at 50% ratio in the range of 7200 - 7250 and sell L2510P7200 put options at 75% ratio in the range of 30 - 70 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Polyolefin market follows macro - sentiment and coking coal price fluctuations. PE is moving towards a supply - demand growth pattern. Supply is increasing as the maintenance season ends, and demand is transitioning from off - season to peak season but with a slow recovery speed. Near - term PE supply - demand pressure is not large, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation if demand recovery is less than expected [4] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factor: Demand is expected to improve after August [5] - Bearish Factors: Jilin Petrochemical has recently started production, and ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE plant is expected to start production in August - September. LLDPE inventory is at a high level [6] Group 6: Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - Plastic Main Contract Basis: 8 yuan/ton on August 14, with a daily change of 26 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 30 yuan/ton [7] - L01 Contract Price: 7343 yuan/ton on August 14, a daily decrease of 38 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 21 yuan/ton [7] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - North China Spot Price: 7290 yuan/ton on August 14, unchanged daily and an increase of 80 yuan/ton weekly [9] - East China Spot Price: 7360 yuan/ton on August 14, unchanged daily and an increase of 40 yuan/ton weekly [9] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent Crude Oil Price: 66 dollars/barrel on August 14, unchanged daily and a decrease of 0.8 dollars/barrel weekly [9] - US Ethane Price: 0.2026 dollars/gallon on August 14, a daily decrease of 0.0024 dollars/gallon and a weekly decrease of 0.0137 dollars/gallon [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - From the PE fundamentals, the near - term pressure is still high as downstream orders haven't improved and restocking demand is limited. Although there was a short - term increase in speculative demand on Monday and Tuesday this week, today's trading volume dropped significantly. Also, PE has been accumulating inventory for four consecutive weeks, with LLDPE inventory reaching a historical high. So, there is still significant pressure above PE. However, from the expected level, the current stage may be the weakest for PE demand, and downstream orders are expected to gradually recover in August, driving demand to pick up. Therefore, PE doesn't have a strong downward drive either. In conclusion, PE is mainly affected by external factors recently and lacks its own directional drive [4] Content Summary by Related Catalogs Price Prediction and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range prediction for polyethylene is 7200 - 7400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 9.94% and its historical percentile (3 - year) at 11.1% [3] - For inventory management when the finished product inventory is high and worried about price drops: To prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short plastic futures (L2509, sell, 25%, entry range 7350 - 7400) to lock in profits and compensate for production costs; they can also sell call options (L2509C7400, sell, 50%, entry range 10 - 50) to collect premiums and reduce costs [3] - For procurement management when the regular inventory is low and purchasing according to orders: To prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising polyethylene prices, enterprises can buy plastic futures (L2509, buy, 50%, entry range 7150 - 7200) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance; they can also sell put options (L2509P7200, sell, 75%, entry range 10 - 50) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the polyethylene price drops [3] Core Contradictions - Near - term pressure on PE fundamentals is high due to poor downstream orders and limited restocking demand. Although there was short - term speculative demand, today's trading volume decreased. PE has been accumulating inventory for four consecutive weeks, especially LLDPE. However, the current stage may be the weakest for PE demand, and downstream orders are expected to recover in August [4] 利多解读 - The "anti - involution" policy drives up the price of coking coal, providing cost support for polyolefins. The demand is expected to improve after August [5] 利空解读 - Jilin Petrochemical's recent production launch. The current restocking willingness of downstream is limited, and the spot price lacks support. PE inventory has been accumulating for four consecutive weeks, with a large increase in LLDPE inventory [6] Daily Data - **Futures prices and spreads**: On August 7, 2025, the plastic main basis was - 22 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 24 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 3 yuan/ton. L01 contract was 7364 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton daily and 35 yuan/ton weekly. L05 contract was 7363 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton daily and 27 yuan/ton weekly. L09 contract was 7297 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton daily and 53 yuan/ton weekly. The L1 - 5 month spread was 1 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton daily and 8 yuan/ton weekly. The L5 - 9 month spread was 66 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton daily and 26 yuan/ton weekly. The L9 - 1 month spread was - 67 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton daily and 18 yuan/ton weekly. The L - P spread was 222 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton daily and 10 yuan/ton weekly [7] - **Spot prices and regional spreads**: On August 7, 2025, the spot price in North China was 7210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton daily and down 50 yuan/ton weekly. In East China, it was 7320 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 70 yuan/ton weekly. In South China, it was 7290 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 30 yuan/ton weekly. The East China - North China spread was 110 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton daily and 20 yuan/ton weekly. The East China - South China spread was 30 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 40 yuan/ton weekly [9] - **Non - standard and standard product spreads**: On August 7, 2025, the spread between HDPE film and LLDPE film was 475 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 75 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between HDPE hollow and LLDPE film was 250 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and weekly. The spread between HDPE injection and LLDPE film was 150 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 25 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between HDPE drawing and LLDPE film was 500 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 75 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between HDPE pipe and LLDPE film was 1425 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly. The spread between LDPE film and LLDPE film was 2275 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 150 yuan/ton weekly [9] - **Upstream prices and processing profits**: On August 7, 2025, the Brent crude oil price was 67 dollars/barrel, unchanged daily and down 4.81 dollars/barrel weekly. The US ethane price was 0.215 dollars/gallon, unchanged daily and up 0.0017 dollars/gallon weekly. The northwest coal price was 545 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and weekly. The East China methanol price was 2395 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 25 yuan/ton weekly. The oil - based PE profit was 550.1823 yuan/ton daily and 900.9701 yuan/ton weekly. The coal - based PE profit was 363 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 211.25 yuan/ton weekly. The profit from purchasing methanol externally to produce PE was - 355 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and down 200 yuan/ton weekly. The profit from purchasing ethane externally to produce PE was 1849 yuan/ton, up 3.2524 yuan/ton daily and down 61.9009 yuan/ton weekly. The profit from purchasing ethylene externally to produce PE was 406.7415 yuan/ton daily and 371.4526 yuan/ton weekly [9]

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7200 - 7500 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 11.1% [2]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high, the recommended strategies are to short L2509 futures at a 25% ratio in the 7400 - 7450 yuan range and sell L2509C7500 call options at a 50% ratio in the 10 - 50 yuan range [2]. - For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, the recommended strategies are to buy L2509 futures at a 50% ratio in the 7150 - 7200 yuan range and sell L2509P7200 put options at a 75% ratio in the 10 - 50 yuan range [2]. 2. Core Contradiction - The polyolefin market was driven up by coking coal in the afternoon. PE fundamentals have seen little change recently. Near - term pressure is high, with weak downstream orders, limited restocking demand, and a significant decline in PE spot trading volume. PE has been accumulating inventory for four consecutive weeks, with LLDPE inventory at a historical high. However, the current stage may be the weakest for PE demand, and downstream orders are expected to recover in August, driving demand improvement. PE is mainly affected by external factors and lacks a clear directional driver [3]. 3. Positive and Negative Factors - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy driving up coking coal prices, providing cost support for polyolefins, and the expected improvement in demand after August [4]. - Negative factors include the recent commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical, limited downstream restocking willingness, and continuous four - week inventory accumulation in PE, especially significant in LLDPE [8]. 4. Market Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, the plastic main basis decreased by 49 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton. The prices of L01, L05, and L09 contracts increased, with changes of 36, 31, and 44 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased or remained unchanged. The East China - North China spread remained unchanged, and the East China - South China spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton [9]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, showed different degrees of change on August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day [9]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, Brent crude oil prices remained unchanged, and the prices of US ethane, Northwest coal, and East China methanol changed slightly. The processing profits of different PE production methods also showed different degrees of change [9].

聚乙烯风险管理日报 2025年7月22日 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 7200-7500 | 8.05% | 3.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心塑料价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空塑料期货来锁定利润， 弥补企业的生产成本 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7400-745 0 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本 | L2509C7 50 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - PE currently has a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, with the futures market showing a transition from a back structure to a contango structure. The current weak spot market is due to upstream price cuts, but the supply is expected to contract with limited new capacity and ongoing maintenance, and the demand growth rate remains above 10%. If the current demand growth rate is maintained, the PE supply - demand structure is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Attention should be paid to the spot market for the L09 contract pressure to be released [3] Key Points from Different Sections Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7100 - 7400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 16.7% [2] Hedging Strategies - For inventory management to prevent inventory depreciation, short L2509 futures with a 25% ratio at 7250 - 7300, and sell L2509C7400 call options with a 50% ratio at 20 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs - For inventory management to prevent price increases in procurement, buy L2509 futures with a 50% ratio at 7100 - 7150, and sell L2509P7100 put options with a 75% ratio at 40 - 80 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2] Core Contradictions - The polyolefin market has been in a weak oscillation recently. PE spot has been weak with upstream price cuts and a significant decline in basis. However, from a fundamental perspective, supply is expected to contract due to limited new capacity and maintenance, and demand growth is over 10%, which may lead to a tight - balance state [3] Bullish Factors - PE devices are in a seasonal maintenance period until July - Some full - density devices have switched production, reducing LLDPE supply pressure, and low HDPE inventory can absorb the additional supply - The Israel - Iran conflict may reduce PE imports from Iran [4] Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into production in the middle of the year - Upstream price cuts have weakened the spot price support [5] Market Data - Futures prices, spreads, spot prices, regional spreads, non - standard and standard product spreads, upstream prices, and processing profits are presented in the report, showing daily and weekly changes [6][8]

聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 7100-7400 | 12.32% | 21.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | 析 | 口 | | | 向 | | 区间 | | | 产成品 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空塑料 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7250-73 | | | 库存偏 | | 期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | 00 | | 库存管 | 高，担 | 多 | | | | | | | 理 | 心 ...

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7100 - 7500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 34.0% [2] 2. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for inventory management: - Short L2509 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 7350 - 7450 to prevent inventory depreciation and lock in profits [2] - Sell L2509C7400 call options at a 50% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 50 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if prices rise [2] Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and aiming to lock in costs: - Buy L2509 futures at a 50% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 7100 - 7200 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs [2] - Sell L2509P7200 put options at a 75% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 40 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the buying price if prices fall [2] 3. Core Views - Recently, the polyolefin market has been driven up by macro - sentiment and coking coal prices. From a fundamental perspective, PE also has upward momentum. Supply - side pressure has been marginally relieved, and demand has been higher than expected. If the high - demand growth rate continues in the second half of the year, PE supply and demand will be in a tight - balance state. Currently, the improvement in macro - sentiment and fundamentals is in resonance, giving PE short - term upward momentum [3] 4. Supply - Side Factors Positive Factors - PE plants are in a seasonal maintenance period, and the concentrated maintenance season is expected to last until mid - July [3] - Some full - density plants have switched production from LLDPE to HDPE due to the high HDPE - LLDPE price spread. Although HDPE supply has increased, its low inventory can absorb the additional supply, and LLDPE supply has decreased marginally [3] - The Iran - Israel conflict may lead to a slight reduction in PE imports from Iran in July - August [3][4] Negative Factors - Multiple HDPE plants are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year [8] - The current spot price lacks strong support, making the real - world market weak [8] 5. Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The plastic main - contract basis on July 11, 2025, was 64 yuan/ton higher than the previous day and 18 yuan/ton lower than the previous week [6] - Details of L01, L05, L09 contract prices, month - to - month spreads, and L - P spreads are provided in the report [9] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices and regional spreads in North China, East China, and South China are presented, along with their daily and weekly changes [9] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - Spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, are given, along with their changes [9] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Prices of Brent crude oil, US ethane, northwest coal, and East China methanol, as well as processing profits from different production methods (oil - based, coal - based, etc.) are provided, along with their changes [9]

聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【利多解读】 1. PE装置进入季节性检修，集中检修季预计持续至7月。 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 7000-7400 | 14.30% | 33.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | 析 | 口 | | | 向 | | 区间 | | | 产成品 库存偏 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空塑料 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7300-74 | | | | | 期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | 00 | | 库存管 | 高 ...

聚乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 7000-7400 | 15.74% | 40.1% | 聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | 析 | 口 | | | 向 | | 区间 | | | 产成品 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空塑料 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7300-74 | | | 库存偏 | | 期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | 00 | | 库存管 | 高，担 | 多 | | | | | | | 理 | 心 ...

| | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 7000-7400 | 12.33% | 21.8% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚乙烯价格区间预测 聚乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | 析 | 口 | | | 向 | | 区间 | | | 产成品 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空塑 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7350-740 0 | | | 库存偏 | | 料期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 库存管 | 高，担 | | | | | | | | 理 | 心塑料 ...