2025年上半年实现营收85.2亿，同比增长6.5%;公司综合毛利率37.1%，同比增长3.1pct;权益股东应占净 利润20.0亿，同比增长7.4%。毛利提升，带动归母净利润增速高于营收增速。公司各项费用率均下降， 经营效率提升，销售费用率1.1%，同比下降0.6pct，总体费用率7.0%，同比下降0.7pct。公司每股中期 派息0.529元，同比增长89.6%，中期派息率60%，提升24pct，同时每股特别派息0.352元，股东回报得 到大幅提高。 背靠母公司资源，商管增速亮眼 2025年上半年，公司商业航道营收32.7亿元，同比增长14.65%，毛利率66.1%，同比上升5.2pct。公司购 物中心商业运营总建筑面积达1309.3万平米，同比增长14.11%，来自母公司的面积占比84.4%;写字楼商 业运营总建筑面积达187.5万平，同比增长7.7%，来自母公司的面积占比73.3%。公司在商业航道和母公 司紧密合作，业绩表现亮眼。商业航道营收占比达38.3%，同时营收维持高增速，毛利提升明显，商业 航道成为公司整体营收和利润增长的重要动力。 中泰证券发布研报称，维持华润万象生活(01209)"买入"评级 ...

重要提示：本材料不构成淡水泉任何形式的要约、承诺或其他法律文件，亦非任何投资、法律或财务等方面的专业建议。过往业绩 不预示未来表现。投资须谨慎。 2025年临近尾声，投资者的目光已开始投向2026年。2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，中国股票市场 将面临怎样的宏观环境与产业风向？哪些资产有望成为明年的投资主线？ 外资观点历来是观测市场方向的一个风向标。近期，多家外资机构相继发布了对中国宏观经济与资本市 场的年度展望。其中一个普遍共识是，2026年政策仍将持续发力，以营造稳定向好的宏观环境，但中国 股票市场定价的逻辑将发生变化。 宏观："稳增长"与结构"再平衡" 宏观层面，外资机构普遍预期 ，2026年的宏观政策将以"稳增长"和结构"再平衡"为主。 经济增长目标 预计维持在5%左右，以保障"十五五"实现平稳开局。增长动力上，出口有望继续保持韧性，消费与投 资在政策支持下逐步回稳，房地产对经济的拖累料将继续减轻。 相较于总量增长，通胀指标的变化更值得关注。 市场对明年通胀回升带动名义GDP改善已形成共识， 但对GDP平减指数（反映价格水平变动）转正时点仍有分歧。这主要源于两大不确定性：一是宏观政策 的支持力度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for Hong Kong conglomerates in the coming year is positive, with expected catalysts and a projected 5% growth in recurring profits by 2026, supported by a weak US dollar [1] Summary by Categories Profit Growth - The forecast indicates a 5% increase in recurring profits for Hong Kong conglomerates by 2026 [1] Dividend Expectations - Anticipated dividend payouts for the next year are expected to increase by approximately 3% year-on-year, providing reasonable returns for investors during the waiting period for catalysts [1] Valuation and Returns - Current valuations show Hong Kong conglomerates trading at about a 32% discount to their net asset value per share, with a projected dividend yield of 4.6% for 2026, slightly above the ten-year average of 4.5% [1] Preferred Stocks - The top stock picks include Cheung Kong (00001) and Chow Tai Fook (00659), with target prices raised to HKD 61 and HKD 9.6 respectively, due to their attractive risk-return profiles [1] - Other favorable stocks include First Pacific (00142) and Swire Pacific A (00019), with target prices set at HKD 8.2 and HKD 74 respectively, all rated as "outperform" [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal business maintains resilience in profitability due to effective cost control and price recovery, despite a decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year [3][4] - The company is expected to see stable performance and growth driven by ongoing projects and an increase in shareholder returns in the future [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 110.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.485 billion yuan, down 14.6% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a single-quarter operating revenue of 36.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 23.8%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3% [2] - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 474 yuan/ton, down 17.0% year-on-year, while the unit sales cost decreased by 10.1% to 257.67 yuan/ton [3] Production and Sales Overview - The company produced 101.58 million tons of self-produced coal in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 0.7% year-on-year, while sales increased by 1.1% to 101.45 million tons [3] - The report indicates that the company is expected to increase production capacity with new mines coming online in 2026, contributing to future growth [3] Profitability and Cost Management - The report emphasizes successful cost management strategies that have mitigated the impact of falling prices, allowing the coal business to maintain profitability [3] - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to improve, with estimates of 26.8%, 27.6%, and 28.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 17.3 billion yuan for 2025, with expected growth to 18.4 billion yuan in 2026 and 19.4 billion yuan in 2027 [4][5]

Core Insights -碧桂园服务 achieved a revenue of 23.2 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2%, while core net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14.8% to 1.57 billion yuan [1][2] Group 1: Business Performance - Core businesses showed positive year-on-year growth, with property management, "three supplies and one industry," and community value-added services generating revenues of 13.6 billion, 5.1 billion, and 2.1 billion yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 6.7%, 51.6%, and 5.3% [1][2] - The combined revenue from the three main businesses accounted for 89.6% of total revenue, an increase of 3.6 percentage points year-on-year, while their combined gross profit margin rose to 92.9%, up 3.1 percentage points [1][2] Group 2: Expansion and Market Position - The company maintained its industry-leading position with a managed area of 1.06 billion square meters (excluding "three supplies and one industry") and signed new third-party contracts covering 6.477 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 66% [2] - The "three supplies and one industry" segment signed 315 new projects with a total contract value of 1.79 billion yuan, indicating strong growth potential in this specialized area [2] Group 3: Profitability and Shareholder Returns - Gross margins for basic property management, "three supplies and one industry," and community value-added services were 21.8%, 7.7%, and 30.4% respectively, showing declines of 1.1, 1.2, and 8.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company committed to distributing 60% of core net profit attributable to shareholders as dividends in 2025 and plans to enhance shareholder returns through share buybacks and other measures [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations, with a revenue of HKD 49.8 billion, down 4% YoY, and a net profit of HKD 2.403 billion, down 30% YoY, primarily due to a decline in connection numbers and comprehensive service revenue, leading to a decrease in gross profit margin [1] Financial Performance - 1H25 natural gas retail volume was 20.8 billion cubic meters, down 0.7% YoY, with commercial and industrial gas volumes affected by a warm winter, decreasing by 3% and 2% respectively [1] - Retail gas gross margin was HKD 0.55 per cubic meter, up HKD 0.01 YoY, with 831,000 new residential connections, down 19% YoY, and comprehensive service revenue of HKD 1.45 billion, down 18% YoY [1] Development Trends - The company adjusted multiple growth indicators for 2025, including gas volume growth (low single-digit growth vs. previous guidance of +4-5% YoY), connection numbers (2.1-2.2 million vs. previous 2.3-2.5 million), and comprehensive service revenue (mid-low single-digit growth vs. previous +20-30% YoY) [1] - Capital expenditure for acquisitions was adjusted to HKD 300 million for the year, down from HKD 500 million previously, while maintaining a gross margin growth guidance of HKD 0.01 per cubic meter to HKD 0.54 per cubic meter [1] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns, with a guidance for total dividends in 2025 not to be lower than HKD 0.95 per share, implying a dividend yield of approximately 5% based on current stock price [2] - A stock buyback plan was announced for the end of 2024, with a scale of no less than 1.98% of total share capital, which is expected to further improve shareholder returns [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to ongoing pressure on connection numbers, the company has lowered its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 8.2% and 10.2% to HKD 3.767 billion and HKD 4.110 billion respectively [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 11.7x for 2025 and 10.7x for 2026, with a target price adjustment down by 7.4% to HKD 25, reflecting a potential upside of 31.2% [2]

Group 1 - Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stake in Mitsubishi Corporation from 9.74% to 10.23% and in Mitsui & Co., with the latter's stake remaining below 10% [1][2] - The stock prices of Mitsubishi Corporation and Mitsui & Co. rose by 2.9% and 1.8% respectively, following the announcement of Berkshire's increased holdings [1] - Berkshire's actions are seen as a vote of confidence in Japanese trading companies, which are focusing on enhancing shareholder returns amid geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 2 - Since 2020, Berkshire has held stakes in three of Japan's five major trading companies, including Marubeni Corporation, Itochu Corporation, and Sumitomo Corporation, which operate in diverse sectors [2] - Analysts note that Berkshire's continued investment has renewed interest in Japanese trading companies, which are actively enhancing shareholder returns through stock buybacks [2] - Berkshire initially planned to keep its stake in Japanese trading companies below 10%, but this limit has been "moderately" relaxed by the companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - Country Garden Services has demonstrated resilience in a challenging macroeconomic environment, achieving stable revenue growth and expanding market scale in the first half of 2025 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 23.19 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [1] - The managed area increased to 1.06 billion square meters, indicating continued growth in operational scale [1] Group 2: Operational Efficiency - Approximately 259 million yuan was invested in upgrading community recreational facilities and renovating old facilities to enhance customer experience [1] - The company has established an efficient operational system to stabilize its service and property management fundamentals [1] Group 3: Third-Party Expansion - Third-party expansion achieved high-quality growth, with contracted area reaching 64.77 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 66%, significantly surpassing the industry average [1] - Residential and commercial properties contributed approximately 71.4% to the new annualized revenue from contracted and incoming projects [1] - The company has successfully implemented a model for expanding into old residential areas, with new projects launched in 11 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, and Wuhan [1] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - As of June 30, the company repurchased 9.09 million shares and plans to continue repurchasing within the framework of at least 500 million yuan for the year [2] - For the fiscal year 2025, the company aims for a dividend payout ratio of 60% of core net profit attributable to shareholders, which is an increase from 33% in 2024, translating to a dividend yield of 6.5% to 7% [2]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The liquor industry has faced continuous demand pressure this year, but the decline in sales, wholesale prices, and financial performance has narrowed in Q2, indicating a potential bottoming phase for the industry [1] - Major liquor companies are adjusting revenue and profit growth rates, and if demand stabilizes, the industry may see an upward turning point in its economic cycle [1] - The overall stock price of the liquor sector has decreased by 6.5% from January 1 to August 1, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.6 percentage points [1] Group 2: Key Insights on Baijiu - Moutai is actively exploring new business development models at the bottom of the current cycle, seeking distributors with stronger demand exploration capabilities [2] - The company is considering establishing a sales platform and managing Moutai collection venues, indicating a strategic adjustment in its distribution network to better tap into new consumer segments [2] Group 3: Beer Market Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the production of major beer companies in China totaled 19.044 million kiloliters, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year [3] - The beer market is expected to maintain stable performance in Q3, although some impact from alcohol-related policies is anticipated [3] - The average price per ton of beer is expected to remain stable with a slight increase due to changes in channel structure and consumer segmentation [4]

Group 1: Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a gradual bottoming out, with improvements in sales, wholesale prices, and financial performance, indicating a potential upward turning point if demand stabilizes [2][3] - Major liquor companies are enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividends, buybacks, and shareholdings, which adds to investment safety margins [3] Group 2: Liquor Sector Analysis - In Q1 2025, liquor companies reported revenue and net profit growth rates of +1.8% and +2.3% respectively, with a notable improvement in performance metrics compared to Q4 2024 [2] - The overall price stability of premium liquor brands has been maintained, with reduced price declines compared to 2024, reflecting strategic adjustments by leading companies [2] Group 3: Beer Sector Analysis - In the first quarter of 2025, beer production decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, with expectations for overall production to remain flat or slightly decline for the year [4] - The beer industry is projected to see a 1%-2% increase in price per ton, with stable sales volume and a decrease in cost per ton by approximately 1%-1.5% [4] - Leading beer companies are maintaining a healthy competitive environment, focusing on balanced growth in sales and financial quality while exploring new growth opportunities in non-beer sectors [4]