日内交易策略与上述策略有所不同。实行这一策略的投资者会在同一交易日内完成股票的买入和卖出操 作，试图利用股价的短期波动来快速获利。日内交易对投资者的交易技巧和市场反应能力要求非常高， 他们需要实时关注市场动态，运用各种技术分析方法和交易指标，在极短的时间内做出买卖决策。同 时，日内交易需要借助先进的交易设备和网络系统，以确保能够及时捕捉到交易机会并完成交易。 此外还有分散投资策略。鉴于美股市场复杂多变，投资者为降低单一股票所带来的风险，往往会选择分 散投资。他们会将资金合理分配到不同行业、不同规模的公司股票上，还会考虑配置国债等其他资产。 通过这种方式，当某一只股票或者某一个行业表现欠佳时，其他股票或资产的收益有可能弥补损失，从 而实现整体投资组合的相对稳定。 以上信息由金融界利用AI助手整理发布。金融界是一家知名的金融信息服务平台，长久以来致力于为 广大投资者提供全面的金融资讯，服务内容涵盖股票、基金、债券等众多金融市场领域，始终秉持专 业、客观、准确的原则，不断为投资者的投资决策提供有价值的参考依据，帮助投资者更好地了解金融 市场、掌握投资知识、做出理性决策。 在美股市场中，投资者会运用多种交易策略来实现 ...

- The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" is constructed based on analyst recommendation events, including upward earnings revisions, initial coverage, and unexpected research report titles. Stocks are selected from the recommendation pool using fundamental and technical criteria to identify those with both fundamental support and technical resonance. The backtesting period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index[14][15][19] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening Method" identifies stocks that have reached a 250-day high within the past 20 trading days. The screening criteria include analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path stability, and continuity of new highs. The formula for calculating the 250-day new high distance is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. A value of 0 indicates a new high, while positive values indicate the degree of fallback from the high[20][22][23] - Stocks are further filtered based on the following metrics: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 6 months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in 250-day returns within the sample pool - Price path stability: Evaluated using metrics like price displacement ratio - Continuity of new highs: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days[23][22][20] - The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" achieved an absolute return of 6.90% and an excess return of 5.25% relative to the Hang Seng Index for the week of August 11-15, 2025. Year-to-date, the portfolio has delivered an absolute return of 61.44% and an excess return of 35.47%[17][19] - The annualized performance metrics for the "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" include an IR of 1.22, tracking error of 14.55%, and a maximum drawdown of 23.73%. The portfolio's return-to-drawdown ratio is 0.78[19] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening Method" identified 17 stocks in the pharmaceutical sector, followed by 8 in technology, 7 in consumer, 7 in financials, and 6 in cyclical industries. Examples include HeYu-B, which achieved a 250-day new high distance of 0.0% and a 447.9% return over the past 250 days[22][23][27]

- The report introduces a quantitative model named "250-Day New High Distance" to track market trends and identify leading stocks. The model calculates the distance between the latest closing price and the highest closing price over the past 250 trading days using the formula: $ 250\text{-Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days. If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance equals 0; otherwise, it indicates the percentage drop from the peak[10][11][12] - The report evaluates the model positively, citing its ability to capture momentum and trend-following strategies effectively. It references prior research, such as [George@2004] and insights from investment books like "Stock Market Wizard," which emphasize the importance of tracking stocks near their 52-week highs[10][18][21] - The report applies the model to major indices, showing their respective 250-Day New High Distances as of August 1, 2025: - Shanghai Composite Index: 1.54% - Shenzhen Component Index: 4.38% - CSI 300: 4.73% - CSI 500: 2.25% - CSI 1000: 1.53% - CSI 2000: 1.08% - ChiNext Index: 8.93% - STAR 50 Index: 7.99%[11][12][33] - The report identifies industries and concept indices close to their 250-Day New Highs, such as Media, Communication, Pharmaceuticals, Defense, and Steel. Concept indices like Wind Microcap Equal Weight, Electronic Equipment, CRO, and Innovative Drugs also show proximity to their 250-Day New Highs[12][14][33] - The report tracks stocks that have reached 250-Day New Highs in the past 20 trading days. A total of 1,239 stocks are identified, with the highest counts in industries like Pharmaceuticals (192 stocks), Machinery (169 stocks), and Basic Chemicals (132 stocks). The highest proportions are found in Banking (64.29%), Steel (56.60%), and Nonferrous Metals (41.94%)[19][20][34] - The report introduces a factor named "Stable New High Stocks," which selects stocks based on criteria such as analyst attention, relative price strength, price path smoothness, and sustained new highs. Specific metrics include: - Analyst attention: At least five buy or overweight ratings in the past three months - Relative price strength: Top 20% in 250-day returns - Price path smoothness: Evaluated using metrics like cumulative absolute daily returns over 120 days - Sustained new highs: Average 250-Day New High Distance over the past 120 days - Trend continuation: Average 250-Day New High Distance over the past five days[24][27][28] - The report lists 50 stocks selected as "Stable New High Stocks," with the highest counts in Manufacturing (15 stocks) and Technology (14 stocks). Examples include Shenghong Technology, Borui Pharmaceuticals, and Feilihua[28][32][34]

报 告 摘 要 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 触及新高的个股、行业和板块可被视为市场的风向标。越来越多的研究表明动量、趋势跟踪策略的有效性。本报告旨在定期跟踪市场中创新高的个股及其 分布，以追踪市场趋势、把握市场热点。 截至2025年8月1日，上证指数、深证成指、沪深300、中证500、中证1000、中证2000、创业板指、科创50指数250日新高距离分别为1.54%、 4.38%、4.73%、2.25%、1.53%、1.08%、8.93%、7.99%。中信一级行业指数中传媒、通信、医药、国防军工、钢铁行业指数距离250日新高较近， 食品饮料、煤炭、房地产、家电、交通运输行业指数距离250日新高较远。概念指数中，万得微盘股日频等权、电子设备和仪器、制药、医疗服务精选、创 新药、光伏逆变器、CRO等概念指数距离250日新高较近。 见微知著：利用创新高个股进行市场监测 截至2025年8月1日，共1239只股票在过去20个交易日间创出250日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的是医药、机械、基础化工行业，创新高个股数量占 比最高的是银行、钢铁、有色金属行业。按照板块分布来看，本周制造、周期板块创新高股票数量最多；按照指数分 ...

Core Concepts - Trend following is not blind speculation; it emphasizes acting in accordance with market trends and avoiding counter-trend operations [1] - Price reflects all fundamentals, sentiment, and policies, ultimately manifesting in price trends [2] - Cut losses quickly and let profits run; quickly stop losses on losing trades while holding profitable trades until the trend ends [3] - Trends have inertia; once established, they are more likely to continue than to reverse [4] - Do not predict; instead, react to market signals and follow trends [5] Trend Identification - Moving Average System: A bullish signal occurs when a short-term moving average crosses above a long-term moving average (e.g., 5-day > 20-day) [6] - Channel Breakout: Enter long when price breaks above the N-day high and short when it breaks below the N-day low [6] - Momentum Indicators: An expanding MACD histogram indicates trend acceleration [6] - Trend Structure: Higher highs and higher lows indicate an uptrend, while lower highs and lower lows indicate a downtrend [6] - Volatility Confirmation: A breakout of the Average True Range (ATR) from recent averages signals trend initiation [6] Strategy Execution - Entry Rules: Enter trades on price breakouts with increased volume or on pullbacks to moving averages [7] - Position Sizing: Limit single trade risk to 1% of total capital [7] - Stop Loss Settings: Use volatility-based stops (±2 times ATR) or structural stops based on previous highs/lows [7] - Profit Taking Logic: Implement trailing stops based on a percentage retracement from the highest price [7] - Multi-Market Adaptation: Different strategies for various asset classes, such as focusing on moving averages for stock index futures and momentum indicators for cryptocurrencies [7] Risk Management - Diversification: Hold 5-10 non-correlated trend positions simultaneously [8] - Leverage Control: Limit futures leverage to 5 times and cryptocurrency leverage to 3 times [8] - Drawdown Triggers: Enforce a 50% reduction in positions if account drawdown reaches 15% [8] - Correlation Monitoring: Reduce positions if the correlation coefficient among holdings exceeds 0.7 [8] Cognitive Misconceptions - Trend following is not equivalent to long-term holding; exit immediately when a trend ends [9] - Holding periods typically range from days to months, not high-frequency trading [9] - Avoid over-optimization, which can lead to failure in real trading [9] - Emotional interference can lead to premature exits; adhere to trailing stops [9] Practical Cases - Oil Price Crash 2020: Trend signals indicated a short position after breaking the 200-day moving average [10] - Nvidia AI Surge 2024: Trend initiation was confirmed by a weekly MACD crossover [10] - Federal Reserve Rate Hikes: The dollar index rose 15% during the 2022 rate hike cycle, validating breakout strategies [10] - Bitcoin Halving Trends: Historical data shows significant price increases following halving events [10]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio Strategy **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on a dual-layer selection process that combines fundamental and technical analysis to identify outperforming stocks from an analyst-recommended stock pool[14][15] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Analyst Recommendation Pool**: Constructed using three types of analyst recommendation events: upward earnings revisions, first-time coverage, and research reports with unexpected positive titles[15] 2. **Fundamental and Technical Screening**: Stocks in the recommendation pool are further filtered based on fundamental support and technical resonance to identify stocks with both strong fundamentals and positive technical trends[15] 3. **Backtesting**: The backtesting period spans from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, assuming a fully invested portfolio with transaction costs considered[15] **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates strong performance with significant excess returns over the Hang Seng Index[15] - **Model Name**: Stable New High Stock Screening **Model Construction Idea**: This model leverages momentum and trend-following strategies, focusing on stocks that have recently reached 250-day highs and exhibit stable price paths[20][22] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **250-Day High Distance Calculation**: $ 250\text{-day high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{\text{latest}}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ Where $\text{Close}_{\text{latest}}$ is the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[22] 2. **Screening Criteria**: - Stocks must have reached a 250-day high in the past 20 trading days - Analyst coverage: At least five "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past six months - Relative strength: Top 20% in 250-day returns among all Hong Kong stocks - Stability: Evaluated using metrics such as price path smoothness and the time-series average of the 250-day high distance over the past 120 days[22][23] 3. **Final Selection**: The top 50 stocks based on stability and trend continuation metrics are selected[23] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies stocks with strong momentum and stable price trends, aligning with the principles of momentum investing[20][22] Model Backtesting Results - **Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio Strategy**: - Annualized Return: 19.11% - Excess Return over Hang Seng Index: 18.48% - Information Ratio (IR): 1.22 - Maximum Drawdown: 23.73%[15][19] - **Stable New High Stock Screening**: - Not explicitly quantified in the report, but the model identifies stocks with strong recent performance and stable price paths, such as those in the financial, healthcare, and consumer sectors[22][23] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: 250-Day High Distance **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the proximity of the latest closing price to the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days, capturing momentum and trend-following characteristics[22] **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250\text{-day high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{\text{latest}}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ - If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the factor value is 0 - If the price has fallen from the high, the factor value is positive, indicating the degree of pullback[22] **Factor Evaluation**: This factor is effective in identifying stocks with strong momentum and limited pullbacks, which are likely to continue their upward trends[22] Factor Backtesting Results - **250-Day High Distance**: - Specific performance metrics are not provided, but the factor is used to screen stocks with strong momentum and stable trends, contributing to the selection of outperforming stocks in the financial, healthcare, and consumer sectors[22][23]

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4] - As of July 11, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 0.00%, Shenzhen Component Index 6.95%, CSI 300 5.67%, CSI 500 4.79%, CSI 1000 2.28%, CSI 2000 0.00%, ChiNext Index 13.46%, and STAR Market 11.75% [5][24] - The sectors closest to their 250-day new highs include Power and Utilities, Steel, Comprehensive Finance, Pharmaceuticals, and Non-ferrous Metals, while Food and Beverage, Coal, Consumer Services, Automotive, and Oil and Petrochemicals are further away [8][24] Group 2 - A total of 873 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the most significant numbers in Basic Chemicals, Machinery, and Pharmaceuticals [2][13] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in Banking, Comprehensive Finance, and National Defense and Military Industry, with respective proportions of 90.48%, 40.00%, and 33.61% [13] - The manufacturing and cyclical sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with 245 and 233 stocks respectively [15] Group 3 - The report identifies 38 stocks that are considered stable new highs, including Shenghong Technology, Beijing North, and Nanhua Futures, with the most in the Manufacturing and Technology sectors [3][21] - The Manufacturing sector had the highest number of new highs, particularly in the National Defense and Military Industry, while the Technology sector saw the most in the Electronics industry [21][25]

- The report tracks the market trend by monitoring stocks, industries, and sectors that have reached new highs, using a 250-day high distance metric[11][12][13] - The 250-day high distance is calculated as: $ 250 \text{ day high distance} = 1 - \frac{Closet}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ where Closet is the latest closing price and $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days[11] - As of June 20, 2025, the 250-day high distances for major indices are: Shanghai Composite Index 3.72%, Shenzhen Component Index 12.96%, CSI 300 9.62%, CSI 500 10.92%, CSI 1000 9.26%, CSI 2000 7.07%, ChiNext Index 21.19%, and STAR 50 Index 14.99%[2][12][13] - The report identifies 816 stocks that reached a 250-day high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest numbers in the pharmaceutical, basic chemicals, and machinery industries[3][19][20] - The report also tracks "stable new high stocks" based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, trend continuity, price path stability, and new high sustainability, selecting 26 stocks such as Sijia Photon, Shenghong Technology, and Boryung Pharmaceutical[3][25][27] - The selected stable new high stocks are mainly from the financial and cyclical sectors, with the financial sector having the most new highs in the banking industry and the cyclical sector in the basic chemicals industry[3][28][29]

Group 1 - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, indicating market trends and hotspots [1][4] - As of June 13, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 3.23%, Shenzhen Component Index 11.94%, CSI 300 9.21%, CSI 500 9.33%, CSI 1000 7.65%, CSI 2000 4.96%, ChiNext Index 19.86%, and STAR Market 13.66% [5][25] - The industry indices that are closest to their 250-day new highs include non-ferrous metals, banking, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and electric power and public utilities [8][25] Group 2 - A total of 838 stocks reached a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days, with the most significant numbers in the pharmaceutical, basic chemicals, and machinery sectors [2][13] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in the banking, textile and apparel, and pharmaceutical industries, with respective proportions of 71.43%, 29.29%, and 24.95% [13][16] - The manufacturing and cyclical sectors had the most new high stocks this week, with 262 and 212 stocks respectively [16] Group 3 - The report identifies 42 stocks that have shown stable new highs, with the majority coming from the manufacturing and consumer sectors, each contributing 9 stocks [22][26] - The mechanical industry had the most new highs within the manufacturing sector, while the food and beverage industry led in the consumer sector [22][26] - The selection criteria for stable new high stocks include analyst attention, relative strength of stock prices, price path stability, and continuity of new highs [19][20]

Core Insights - The article explores the lives and strategies of some of the most famous futures traders, highlighting their innovative methods, risk management techniques, and discipline, which provide valuable lessons for traders and investors [1][13]. Group 1: Richard Dennis - Richard Dennis, known as the "King of Trading," turned a small loan into over $200 million by his early 30s and is famous for the "Turtle Traders" experiment, proving that trading can be taught [2][4]. - His breakout strategy involves buying when prices break above a certain level and selling when they fall below, based on the assumption that trends tend to continue [4]. - Dennis emphasizes strict risk management, typically risking only 1-2% of his capital on any single trade, which helps him survive consecutive losses [4]. - He adjusts position sizes based on market volatility, increasing positions in low-volatility markets and decreasing them in high-volatility ones [4]. - Quick stop-loss orders are a key rule for Dennis, ensuring that losses are kept to a minimum [4]. Group 2: Paul Tudor Jones - Paul Tudor Jones, founder of Tudor Investment Corp, is renowned for predicting and profiting from the 1987 stock market crash, reportedly tripling his funds that day [2][6]. - His global macro trading strategy involves making large bets across multiple asset classes based on macroeconomic trends, including futures [6]. - Jones values technical analysis alongside macroeconomic analysis, looking for chart patterns and signals for entry and exit points [6]. - He often takes contrarian positions, betting against prevailing market sentiment, believing that the best investment opportunities arise when market consensus is wrong [6]. - Dynamic risk management is central to his strategy, involving strict stop-losses and adjusting position sizes based on market volatility and confidence in trades [6]. Group 3: John W. Henry - John W. Henry, a legendary futures trader and owner of the Boston Red Sox and Liverpool FC, is known for his systematic, algorithm-driven trading approach [3][8]. - His trading strategy is based on systematic trend following, focusing on a wide range of futures markets to diversify risk and capture various market trends [8]. - Henry implements strict risk management rules, including capital allocation limits per trade and using stop-loss orders to protect against significant losses [8]. - He adopts a long-term perspective, willing to hold positions through drawdowns, believing in the long-term profitability of his strategies [8]. - Continuous research and development are crucial to his success, as he adapts his trading systems based on historical data and market behavior [8]. Group 4: Ed Seykota - Ed Seykota, an influential futures trader, is recognized for developing and implementing computerized trading systems in the 1970s [3][10]. - His strategy combines systematic trend following with emotional discipline, using automated systems to generate trading signals based on technical indicators and historical data [10]. - Seykota emphasizes the importance of position management in risk control, adjusting trade sizes based on market volatility to prevent significant damage to the overall portfolio [10]. - He is known for his focus on trading psychology, stressing the need to manage emotions and adhere to trading systems even during losing periods [10]. - Quick stop-loss orders are central to Seykota's strategy, allowing for rapid exits from losing trades to prevent small losses from escalating [10]. Group 5: Larry Williams - Larry Williams, a renowned commodity and futures trader, is famous for his short-term trading strategies and winning multiple trading competitions [3][12]. - His strategy focuses on short-term trading and precise market timing, particularly in commodity futures [12]. - Williams utilizes seasonal patterns in commodities as part of his trading approach [12]. - He emphasizes risk control, likening traders to warriors who need shields to protect themselves from losses, advocating for strong capital management [12]. - Williams believes that trading strategies should be personalized, akin to finding the right pair of shoes that fit well, rather than adhering to universally accepted methods [12].