证券研究报告 | 2025年10月11日 港股投资周报 多只有色股创一年新高，港股精选组合年内上涨 76.55% 核心观点 金融工程周报 港股精选组合绩效回顾 本周，港股精选组合绝对收益-2.14%，相对恒生指数超额收益 1.00%。 本年，港股精选组合绝对收益 76.55%，相对恒生指数超额收益 45.49%。 港股市场创新高热点板块跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、股价路径平稳性、创新高连续性等 角度在过去 20 个交易日创出过 250 日新高的股票池中筛选出平稳创新高股 票。 近期，中广核矿业等股票平稳创出新高。 按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是周期板块，其次为科技、医药、消 费、大金融和制造板块，具体个股信息可参照正文。 港股市场一周回顾 宽基指数方面，本周恒生中型股指数收益最高，累计收益-1.84%；恒生科技 指数收益最低，累计收益-5.48%。 行业指数方面，本周公用事业行业收益最高，累计收益 1.57%；非必需性消 费行业收益最低，累计收益-6.71%。 概念板块方面，本周 LED 照明概念板块收益最高，累计收益 6.37%；集成 电路产业基金概念板块收益最低，累计收益-13.29% ...

报 告 摘 要 乘势而起：市场新高趋势追踪 触及新高的个股、行业和板块可被视为市场的风向标。越来越多的研究表明动量、趋势跟踪策略的有效性。本报告旨在定期跟踪市场中创新高的个股及其 分布，以追踪市场趋势、把握市场热点。 截至2025年10月10日，共1235只股票在过去20个交易日间创出250日新高。其中创新高个股数量最多的是电子、机械、基础化工行业，创新高个股数量 占比最高的是有色金属、电子、电力设备及新能源行业。按照板块分布来看，本周科技、制造板块创新高股票数量最多；按照指数分布来看，中证2000、 中证1000、中证500、沪深300、创业板指、科创50指数中创新高个股数量占指数成份股个数比例分别为：22.15%、26.20%、31.60%、29.33%、 34.00%、52.00%。 平稳创新高股票跟踪 我们根据分析师关注度、股价相对强弱、趋势延续性、股价路径平稳性、创新高持续性等角度，本周从全市场创新高股票中筛选出了包含工业富联、香农 芯创、兴业银锡等50只平稳创新高的股票。按照板块来看，创新高股票数量最多的是周期、科技板块，分别有18、17只入选。其中，周期板块中创新高最 多的是基础化工行业；科技板 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Highs - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors reaching new highs, serving as market indicators and highlighting the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies [1][4] - As of September 19, 2025, the distance to the 250-day new highs for major indices are: Shanghai Composite Index 1.63%, Shenzhen Component Index 1.09%, CSI 300 1.08%, CSI 500 1.24%, CSI 1000 1.54%, CSI 2000 1.91%, ChiNext Index 1.79%, and STAR 50 Index 1.28% [5][22] Group 2: High-Performing Sectors and Stocks - The sectors closest to their 250-day new highs include electronics, communications, consumer services, electric equipment and new energy, and automotive, while food and beverage, banking, coal, comprehensive finance, and non-bank financial sectors are further away [8][22] - As of September 19, 2025, a total of 1,461 stocks reached 250-day new highs in the past 20 trading days, with the highest numbers in the electronics, machinery, and basic chemicals sectors [13][22] Group 3: Stock Selection and Monitoring - The report identifies 50 stocks with stable new highs, focusing on analyst attention, relative strength, price path stability, and continuity of new highs, with the majority from the technology and manufacturing sectors [19][23] - The technology sector had the most stocks reaching new highs, particularly in the electronics industry, while the manufacturing sector saw the most in the machinery industry [19][23]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that trading strategies and tactics are interconnected, and there is no isolated buy or sell action, only an acceptable plan [1] - A reasonable risk-reward ratio should be at least 2:1, meaning a 7% stop-loss should correspond to a 14% profit expectation [1] - For breakout buying, if there is no floating profit within five trading days, it may indicate a wrong choice, and a stop-loss should be considered at a 3-5% loss [1] Group 2 - After achieving a floating profit of over 8%, three tactical options are available: using a 7-8% retracement as a stop-loss threshold, calculating a moving stop-loss based on the breakout candle, or employing the TR holding line as a stop-loss threshold [3] - A stable strong trend stock typically will not easily breach the TR holding line, and when it does, selling can be done in batches or all at once [5] - For most stocks outside of leading stocks, selling a portion of the position after achieving a 20% floating profit is often a good choice, as excessive greed can lead to profit loss [6] Group 3 - The volume-weighted moving average is superior in support and sensitivity compared to EMA and SMA, and practical comparisons are encouraged [8] - Momentum divergence remains an essential technique in selling strategies, with VAD and BIAS indicators being particularly useful for identifying buy and sell timing [10]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model tracks the distance of stock prices or indices from their 250-day high to identify market trends and hotspots. It is based on the premise that stocks nearing their 52-week high tend to outperform, as highlighted in prior research by George (2004) and others[11][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: The 250-day new high distance is calculated as: $ 250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days If the latest closing price reaches a new high, the distance is 0; otherwise, the distance is positive, indicating the percentage drop from the high[11]. - **Model Evaluation**: This model effectively captures momentum and trend-following strategies, aligning with established theories in quantitative finance[11][18]. 2. Model Name: Stable New High Stock Screening Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies stocks with stable momentum characteristics, emphasizing smooth price paths and consistent new highs. It builds on research showing that smoother momentum stocks outperform those with jumpy price paths[25]. - **Model Construction Process**: Stocks are screened based on the following criteria: - **Analyst Attention**: At least 5 "Buy" or "Overweight" ratings in the past 3 months - **Relative Strength**: 250-day return in the top 20% of the market - **Price Stability**: - **Price Path Smoothness**: Measured by the ratio of price displacement to the total price path length over the past 120 days - **New High Continuity**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days - **Trend Continuity**: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 5 days The top 50 stocks based on these metrics are selected[25][27]. - **Model Evaluation**: This model emphasizes the temporal characteristics of momentum, providing a refined approach to identifying high-momentum stocks with stable trajectories[25][27]. --- Backtesting Results of Models 1. 250-Day New High Distance Model - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite: 0.33% - Shenzhen Component: 0.43% - CSI 300: 0.57% - CSI 500: 0.00% - CSI 1000: 1.04% - CSI 2000: 1.56% - ChiNext Index: 1.09% - STAR 50 Index: 1.95%[12][13]. 2. Stable New High Stock Screening Model - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including New Yisheng, Shenghong Technology, and Industrial Fulian. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical and technology sectors had the highest representation, with 17 stocks each. - Within the cyclical sector, the chemical industry dominated, while the electronics industry led the technology sector[28][32]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative position of a stock's price to its 250-day high, capturing momentum and trend-following signals[11]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ 250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance = 1 - \frac{Close_t}{ts\_max(Close, 250)} $ Where: - $ Close_t $ is the latest closing price - $ ts\_max(Close, 250) $ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days[11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor is simple yet effective in identifying stocks with strong momentum characteristics[11]. 2. Factor Name: Price Path Smoothness - **Factor Construction Idea**: Quantifies the smoothness of a stock's price trajectory, emphasizing stable momentum over jumpy movements[25]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ Price\ Path\ Smoothness = \frac{Price\ Displacement}{Total\ Price\ Path\ Length} $ Where: - $ Price\ Displacement $ is the absolute change in price over the period - $ Total\ Price\ Path\ Length $ is the sum of absolute daily price changes over the same period[25]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor highlights stocks with consistent upward trends, reducing noise from volatile price movements[25]. 3. Factor Name: New High Continuity - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the consistency of a stock's proximity to its 250-day high over time[27]. - **Factor Construction Process**: $ New\ High\ Continuity = Average\ (250\ Day\ New\ High\ Distance\ Over\ Past\ 120\ Days) $ This factor is calculated as the mean of the 250-day new high distance over a rolling 120-day window[27]. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor captures the persistence of momentum, favoring stocks that consistently remain near their highs[27]. --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. 250-Day New High Distance - **Indices' 250-Day New High Distance**: - Shanghai Composite: 0.33% - Shenzhen Component: 0.43% - CSI 300: 0.57% - CSI 500: 0.00% - CSI 1000: 1.04% - CSI 2000: 1.56% - ChiNext Index: 1.09% - STAR 50 Index: 1.95%[12][13]. 2. Price Path Smoothness - **Selected Stocks**: 50 stocks were identified, including New Yisheng, Shenghong Technology, and Industrial Fulian. - **Sector Distribution**: - Cyclical and technology sectors had the highest representation, with 17 stocks each. - Within the cyclical sector, the chemical industry dominated, while the electronics industry led the technology sector[28][32]. 3. New High Continuity - **Selected Stocks**: Same as the Price Path Smoothness factor, as it is part of the composite screening model[28][32].

Market Trends and Highs Tracking - The report aims to track stocks, industries, and sectors that are reaching new highs, serving as market indicators [1][4] - As of September 12, 2025, the distance to the 250-day high for major indices is as follows: Shanghai Composite Index 0.33%, Shenzhen Component Index 0.43%, CSI 300 0.57%, CSI 500 0.00%, CSI 1000 1.04%, CSI 2000 1.56%, ChiNext Index 1.09%, and STAR Market 1.95% [6][23] - Certain sectors such as non-ferrous metals, comprehensive, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and machinery are closer to their 250-day highs, while coal, banking, comprehensive finance, transportation, and food and beverage sectors are further away [8][23] Monitoring High-Performing Stocks - A total of 1,620 stocks reached a 250-day high in the past 20 trading days, with the highest number of new highs in the machinery, electronics, and basic chemicals sectors [2][13] - The highest proportion of new high stocks is found in non-ferrous metals (68.55%), electronics (45.47%), and comprehensive industries (43.48%) [13][15] - The technology and manufacturing sectors had the most stocks reaching new highs this week, with respective counts of 503 and 452 [15] Stable High-Performing Stocks Tracking - The report identifies 50 stable high-performing stocks based on analyst attention, relative strength, price path stability, and continuity of new highs [3][20] - The cyclical and technology sectors had the most stocks selected, with 17 stocks each, while the basic chemicals industry had the highest number of new highs within the cyclical sector [20][24]

进入9月，第十九届全国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛暨第十二届全球衍生品实盘交易大赛（下称大赛） 进入最后冲刺阶段。作为国内期货市场最具影响力的年度赛事，本届大赛自开赛以来吸引了数万名交易 者参与，截至9月11日，总参赛账户数突破16.6万个。 据大赛金牌导师谭伟鸿介绍，8月1—25日，股指出现一波明显上涨行情，上证指数自3560点涨到3880 点，涨幅近9%。大宗商品文华指数同期横盘震荡，于8月25日到达局部高点。两者在8月25日的高点对 应大赛账户整体利润的阶段性最高点，随后逐级滑落。一个显著的细节是，9月5日大宗商品指数与股指 均有单日超1%上涨，大赛账户整体利润也随之单日上涨近10亿元。 对此，谭伟鸿解释，面对双向交易的期货市场，交易者依然"本能"地习惯于多头思维。王志新则表示， 多数参赛者偏好趋势跟踪、波段操作策略或短线交易。当市场处于震荡或无明显趋势的阶段，这些策略 的有效性下降，而短线交易对交易技巧和执行要求高，容易导致胜率下降或摩擦成本增加。 事实上，当前"股强商弱"格局明显，期货日报记者了解到，股指期货（比如中证500股指期货）以及与 权益市场关联度较高的品种（比如科技、新能源相关的商品）更受资金 ...

Group 1: Market Trends and Highs - The report tracks stocks, industries, and sectors reaching new highs, serving as market indicators and highlighting the effectiveness of momentum and trend-following strategies [1][4][22] - As of August 29, 2025, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component are close to their 250-day highs, with respective distances of 0.66% and 0.00% [5][22] - Among the CITIC primary industry indices, sectors like non-ferrous metals, electric equipment and new energy, and communication are near their 250-day highs, while coal, real estate, and banking are further away [8][22] Group 2: High-Performing Stocks - A total of 1,738 stocks reached 250-day highs in the past 20 trading days, with the highest numbers in the machinery, electronics, and pharmaceuticals sectors [2][13][22] - The manufacturing and technology sectors have the most stocks reaching new highs, with respective counts of 535 and 492 [15][22] - The proportion of stocks reaching new highs within various indices, such as the CSI 2000 and CSI 1000, is significant, with ratios of 32.50% and 32.30% respectively [15][22] Group 3: Stable High-Performing Stocks - The report identifies 50 stable high-performing stocks based on criteria such as analyst attention, price strength, and trend continuity, with a focus on technology and manufacturing sectors [3][19][23] - The technology sector has the highest number of stable high-performing stocks, particularly in the electronics industry, while the manufacturing sector is led by the machinery industry [19][24]

Group 1 - The core investment strategies in the US stock market include value investing, growth investing, trend following, day trading, and diversification [1][2][3] - Value investing focuses on identifying undervalued stocks through fundamental analysis, emphasizing long-term investment and the belief that stock prices will eventually reflect their intrinsic value [1] - Growth investing targets companies with high growth potential, often in emerging industries, and prioritizes future growth over current profitability, accepting higher risks for potentially higher returns [1] Group 2 - Trend following strategy involves monitoring stock price trends using technical analysis, where investors buy stocks in an upward trend and sell in a downward trend, requiring keen market insight [2] - Day trading is characterized by buying and selling stocks within the same trading day to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations, demanding high trading skills and real-time market awareness [2] - Diversification strategy aims to reduce risk by spreading investments across various industries and asset classes, helping to stabilize overall portfolio performance when certain stocks or sectors underperform [3]

- The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" is constructed based on analyst recommendation events, including upward earnings revisions, initial coverage, and unexpected research report titles. Stocks are selected from the recommendation pool using fundamental and technical criteria to identify those with both fundamental support and technical resonance. The backtesting period is from January 1, 2010, to June 30, 2025, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index[14][15][19] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening Method" identifies stocks that have reached a 250-day high within the past 20 trading days. The screening criteria include analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path stability, and continuity of new highs. The formula for calculating the 250-day new high distance is: $ 250\text{-day new high distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ represents the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price over the past 250 trading days. A value of 0 indicates a new high, while positive values indicate the degree of fallback from the high[20][22][23] - Stocks are further filtered based on the following metrics: - Analyst attention: At least 5 buy or overweight ratings in the past 6 months - Relative stock strength: Top 20% in 250-day returns within the sample pool - Price path stability: Evaluated using metrics like price displacement ratio - Continuity of new highs: Average 250-day new high distance over the past 120 days and past 5 days[23][22][20] - The "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" achieved an absolute return of 6.90% and an excess return of 5.25% relative to the Hang Seng Index for the week of August 11-15, 2025. Year-to-date, the portfolio has delivered an absolute return of 61.44% and an excess return of 35.47%[17][19] - The annualized performance metrics for the "Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio" include an IR of 1.22, tracking error of 14.55%, and a maximum drawdown of 23.73%. The portfolio's return-to-drawdown ratio is 0.78[19] - The "Stable New High Stock Screening Method" identified 17 stocks in the pharmaceutical sector, followed by 8 in technology, 7 in consumer, 7 in financials, and 6 in cyclical industries. Examples include HeYu-B, which achieved a 250-day new high distance of 0.0% and a 447.9% return over the past 250 days[22][23][27]