Core Insights - Switzerland's trade surplus narrowed to 2.8 billion Swiss francs in September, marking the lowest level since May of this year [1] Import Analysis - Imports surged by 9.4% month-on-month, reaching 19.9 billion Swiss francs, driven primarily by a 34.2% increase in pharmaceutical and chemical products and a 19.5% rise in clothing and jewelry [1] - Notably, imports from Russia skyrocketed by 491.9% year-on-year, while imports from South Korea increased by 245%. In contrast, overall imports from non-Eurozone countries plummeted by 21.4%, indicating a significant shift in import sources [1] Export Analysis - Total exports in September amounted to 22.8 billion Swiss francs, with a month-on-month growth rate slowing to 3.4%. The growth was mainly fueled by vehicle exports (+21.8%), clothing and jewelry (+17.3%), and paper and printing products (+11.4%) [1] - Exports to the United States saw a substantial increase of 44.8%, highlighting strong demand for Swiss high-end manufacturing and luxury goods despite tariff barriers. However, exports to several European and North American markets experienced significant declines: exports to Slovenia fell by 29.6%, to Poland by 24.1%, and to Canada by 18.1% [1]

Trade Performance - China's total goods trade (imports and exports) reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% year-over-year increase for the first three quarters [1] - Exports amounted to 19.95 trillion yuan, showing a 7.1% year-over-year increase [1] - Imports totaled 13.66 trillion yuan, a 0.2% year-over-year decrease [1] - In September alone, total trade volume was 4.04 trillion yuan, an 8% year-over-year increase [1]

Economic Overview - In July, China's total goods import and export amounted to 3.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, with exports at 2.31 trillion yuan, growing by 8.0% [1][3] - The export growth rate in July continued to rebound for the second consecutive month, increasing by 0.8 percentage points compared to June [1] - Imports also showed significant improvement, with a growth rate increase of 2.4 percentage points from June [1] Export and Import Dynamics - Despite a decline in exports to the U.S. due to tariffs, China's overall export performance remains resilient, with a notable increase in exports to non-U.S. markets [3] - The major categories driving the increase in imports in July included high-tech products, such as aircraft engines and integrated circuits, following the U.S. lifting some export controls [3] Consumer Spending Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July reached 3.88 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, although it saw a month-on-month decline of 0.14% [3][5] - The consumption of key goods, supported by the policy of replacing old appliances, showed significant growth, with categories like home appliances and communication equipment seeing increases of 28.7% and 14.9% respectively [5] Investment Insights - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 28.82 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, reflecting a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [5][6] - Manufacturing investment grew by 6.2%, while infrastructure investment increased by 3.2%, both showing a decrease in growth rate compared to the previous period [5][6] Economic Challenges and Policy Responses - The economic environment remains complex, with external factors such as trade protectionism and extreme weather conditions impacting economic performance [7] - The government is focusing on maintaining stable macroeconomic policies, enhancing flexibility, and promoting domestic demand to support economic recovery [7]

Core Insights - New Zealand reported a trade surplus of 142 million NZD in June, while the 12-month trade deficit reached 4.366 billion NZD [1] - Exports in June totaled 6.63 billion NZD, while imports were 6.49 billion NZD [1]

Core Viewpoint - Argentina's trade surplus in June reached $906 million, exceeding the expected $700 million [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Trade Performance - In June, Argentina's exports totaled $7.27 billion, while imports amounted to $6.37 billion [1]

Trade Performance - China's total goods trade (imports and exports) reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a 2.9% year-over-year increase [1] - Exports hit a record high of 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year-over-year [1] - Imports totaled 8.79 trillion yuan, a 2.7% year-over-year decrease [1] Growth Trend - In June, imports and exports all achieved positive year-over-year growth, with accelerating growth rates [1]

Core Insights - Brazil's trade surplus narrowed to $5.889 billion in June, below the expected $6.200 billion [1] - Exports in June decreased to $29.147 billion, exceeding the forecast of $28.550 billion [1] - Imports rose to $23.257 billion in June, higher than the anticipated $22.600 billion [1]

Group 1 - Argentina's unemployment rate for the first quarter is 7.9% [1] Group 2 - In May, Argentina reported a trade surplus of $608 million, which was below the expected surplus of $1.05 billion [2] - Exports in May totaled $7.095 billion, while imports were $6.488 billion [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a forecast for various macroeconomic indicators in May, indicating a mixed outlook for industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales, trade, and monetary conditions, reflecting ongoing economic adjustments and external influences. Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial added value is expected to grow by 6% year-on-year in May, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.5, indicating a recovery in production and demand [1] - Key indicators show a decline in the operating rates of automotive tires, while the chemical industry shows varied performance [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by 3.9% year-on-year in May, with manufacturing and real estate investments declining, while infrastructure investment remains stable [2] - High-frequency data indicates a decrease in steel prices and an increase in asphalt operating rates, supporting stable infrastructure investment [2] Group 3: Retail Sales - Social retail sales are expected to grow by 4.7% year-on-year in May, down from 5.1% in April, with service retail showing stronger growth [3] - The automotive market is experiencing cautious sentiment due to international uncertainties, impacting retail sales growth [3] Group 4: Trade - Exports are forecasted to grow by 5% year-on-year in May, while imports are expected to remain flat at 0% [4] - Factors such as increased port activity in Southeast Asia and tariff reductions are influencing export dynamics [4] Group 5: Monetary Conditions - New credit is expected to reach 800 billion yuan in May, with total social financing at 2 trillion yuan and M2 growth at 7.7% [5] - The article notes a shift in loan dynamics, with government bonds contributing significantly to social financing [5] Group 6: Inflation - CPI is projected to decline by 0.1% year-on-year in May, while PPI is expected to drop to -3% [5] - Price movements in fresh produce and energy are influencing inflation metrics [5] Group 7: Economic Forecasts - A summary table outlines various economic indicators for May 2025, including GDP growth, industrial added value, retail sales, fixed asset investment, exports, imports, trade surplus, CPI, PPI, and M2 growth [6]