大类资产及择时观点月报（2025.10） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 债市观点发生改变 本报告导读： 根据 2025 年 9 月底的最新数据，股票、债券和黄金市场在 2025 年 10 月信号分别为 正向，负向和正向。 投资要点： 金融工程 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.09 | | 021-23219395 | | --- | --- | | | zhengyabin@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040105 | | | 曹君豪(分析师) | | | 021-23185657 | | | caojunhao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040094 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 大类资产及择时观点月报（2025.09） 2025.09.01 风格及行业观点月报（2025.09） 2025.09.01 大类资产及择时观点月报（2025.08） 2025.08.01 风格及行业观点月报（2025.08） 2025.08.01 大类资产及择时观点月报（2025.07） 2025.07.02 证 券 研 究 报 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Group (Hong Kong) Shipping Leasing Co., Ltd. reported a stable operational performance in the first half of 2025, with a slight increase in revenue but a decline in net profit primarily due to tax policy changes [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 2.018 billion, up 2.7% year-on-year, while net profit was HKD 1.151 billion, down 16.7% [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the average return on equity was 15.4%, and the average return on assets was 5.4%, both showing a growth of 0.3 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [1] - Total assets amounted to HKD 42.201 billion, with net assets of HKD 14.704 billion, reflecting a 2.8% increase from the end of 2024 [1] - The debt-to-asset ratio was maintained at 65.2%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from the end of 2024 [1] - Earnings per share were HKD 0.179, and an interim dividend of HKD 0.05 per share was declared [1] Fleet Management - The company maintained a stable fleet size, with a total of 143 vessels as of June 30, 2025, including 121 operational vessels and 22 under construction [2] - The average age of operational vessels is approximately 4.13 years, with an average remaining lease term of 7.64 years for contracts longer than one year [2] - The company signed new orders for six vessels worth USD 308 million, all of which are mid-to-high-end types, including four MR tankers and two methanol dual-fuel MR tankers [2] Financial Strategy - The company implemented a cross-currency financing strategy to manage funding costs, achieving a financing cost of 3.1%, down 40 basis points from the beginning of the year [3] - The company’s interest-bearing debt was approximately HKD 25.55 billion, a decrease of 7.4% from the end of 2024 [3] - The company is actively engaging with financial institutions to expand financing channels and has made progress on a RMB 10 billion credit framework agreement with China Shipbuilding Finance [3] Risk Management and ESG - The company is enhancing its risk management framework, focusing on identifying and mitigating risks across various categories [4] - It has been recognized in the S&P Global "Sustainable Development Yearbook (China Edition) 2025," highlighting its commitment to ESG principles [4] - The company has been listed on Fortune's China ESG Influence List for three consecutive years, indicating effective ESG governance [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its ship leasing business and manage asset risks effectively in the second half of 2025 [5][6] - It aims to control financing costs further and has set a framework for a USD 3 billion medium-term note program [6]

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Group (Hong Kong) Shipping Leasing Co., Ltd. reported a stable operational performance in the first half of 2025, with a slight increase in revenue but a decline in net profit primarily due to tax policy changes [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 2.018 billion, up 2.7% year-on-year, while net profit was HKD 1.151 billion, down 16.7% [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the average return on equity was 15.4%, and the average return on assets was 5.4%, both showing a growth of 0.3 percentage points compared to the end of 2024 [1] - Total assets amounted to HKD 42.201 billion, with net assets of HKD 14.704 billion, reflecting a 2.8% increase from the end of 2024 [1] - The debt-to-asset ratio was maintained at 65.2%, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from the end of 2024 [1] - Earnings per share were HKD 0.179, and an interim dividend of HKD 0.05 per share was declared [1] Fleet Management - The company maintained a stable fleet size, with a total of 143 vessels as of June 30, 2025, including 121 operational vessels and 22 under construction [2] - The average age of operational vessels was approximately 4.13 years, with an average remaining lease term of 7.64 years for contracts longer than one year [2] - The fleet structure is shifting towards high-value, younger vessels, with 100% of new orders being mid-to-high-end ship types, including MR tankers and methanol dual-fuel MR tankers [2] Financial Management - The company implemented a cross-currency financing strategy, reducing the overall financing cost to 3.1%, down 40 basis points from the beginning of the year [3] - As of June 30, 2025, interest-bearing liabilities were approximately HKD 25.55 billion, a decrease of 7.4% from the end of 2024 [3] - The company is actively engaging with financial institutions to expand financing channels and has initiated a RMB 10 billion credit framework agreement with China Ship Financial [3] Risk Management and ESG - The company is enhancing its risk management framework, focusing on identifying and mitigating risks associated with asset management and compliance [4] - It has been recognized in the S&P Global "Sustainable Development Yearbook (China Edition) 2025," highlighting its commitment to ESG principles [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its ship leasing business and manage asset risks effectively in the second half of 2025 [5][6] - Key initiatives include securing new ship orders, enhancing asset risk management, and controlling financing costs through various strategies [6]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, Minmetals Resources achieved record-high revenue of $2.817 billion, a 47% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of $566 million, up 612% year-on-year, supported by rising copper prices and production capacity improvements [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue reached $2.817 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 47% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit for the same period was $566 million, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 612% [1]. - The leverage ratio decreased from 41% at the end of 2024 to 33% in the first half of 2025 [1][4]. Group 2: Copper Production and Market Dynamics - Copper sales volume reached 237,700 tons, the highest for the same period since 2018, with the Las Bambas mine contributing 210,600 tons, a 67% increase year-on-year [2]. - The unit cost of production at the Las Bambas mine was $1.06 per pound of copper, lower than approximately 75% of global mines [1][2]. - The company plans to expand production capacity at the Khoemacau mine to 130,000 tons annually, with completion expected by the end of 2027 [3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The management emphasized the importance of community engagement to stabilize operations at the Las Bambas mine, including investments in local infrastructure [2]. - The company is focused on low-cost exploration around existing mines to secure future reserves [3]. - Minmetals Resources is pursuing a strategic acquisition of the Brazilian nickel business from Anglo American, with plans to complete the transaction this year [4].

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, Minmetals Resources achieved record-high revenue of $2.817 billion, a 47% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of $566 million, up 612% year-on-year, supported by rising copper prices and production capacity improvements [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Revenue reached $2.817 billion, up from $1.918 billion in the same period last year, marking a 47% increase [3]. - Net profit after tax was $566 million, compared to $79.5 million in the previous year, reflecting a 612% increase [3]. - EBITDA increased to $1.539 billion, a 98% rise from $779 million [3]. - The company's leverage ratio decreased from 41% at the end of 2024 to 33% [2][6]. Copper Production and Costs - The company sold 237,700 tons of payable copper, the highest for the same period since 2018 [4]. - Las Bambas mine produced 210,600 tons of copper concentrate, a 67% year-on-year increase, with a C1 unit cost of $1.06 per pound, lower than 75% of global mines [2][4]. - The company aims to achieve a copper production target of 400,000 tons for the year [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Minmetals Resources is actively expanding the Khoemacau mine's capacity to 130,000 tons per year, expected to be completed by the end of 2027 [5]. - The company plans to increase exploration efforts around existing mines to seek low-cost reserves [5]. - The company is pursuing a strategic acquisition of the nickel business from Anglo American in Brazil, with a planned expenditure of $350 million [6]. Market Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the copper market, citing prolonged development cycles for quality projects and sustained high demand [5]. - The company maintains a growth-oriented strategy, focusing on stable operations and project development [6].

2025年上半年，五矿资源（01208.HK，股价4.79港元，市值581.5亿港元）半年度收入再创新高，达到 28.17亿美元，同比增长47%，上半年公司税后净利润为5.66亿美元，同比增长612%，集团层面杠杆率 由2024年底的41%下降到33%。 报告期内，铜产品实现量价齐升，为公司业绩增长提供了有力支撑。 8月20日下午，公司在深圳举办了半年度业绩交流会。会上，公司管理层向《每日经济新闻》记者介绍 了公司业绩情况和展望。据悉，拉斯邦巴斯矿（Las Bambas）上半年C1单位成本【注1】为每磅铜1.06 美元，低于全球约75%的矿山，贡献了21万吨铜产量，今年的产量目标是40万吨铜。拉斯邦巴斯矿或成 为秘鲁第一大铜矿。 | 截至六月三十日止六個月 | 二零二五年 | 二零二四年 | 婆明 % | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 百惠美元 | 百属美元 | 順芸/(逆差) | | 收入 | 2,817.0 | 1,918.2 | 47% | | 經營費用 | (1,258.2) | (1,063.2) | (18%) | | 勘探費用 | (42.5) | (27.2) | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the resilience and strategic initiatives of Guizhou Moutai Sauce Aroma Liquor Company amidst a challenging period for the liquor industry, emphasizing its strong brand, product focus, channel support, and service enhancement to achieve its operational goals and maintain growth momentum [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Context and Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment cycle, with consumption patterns rapidly restructuring [1]. - Guizhou Moutai Sauce Aroma Liquor Company achieved a revenue of 246.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.65% [1]. - Moutai Group's strategic determination and collaboration with distributors have been crucial in navigating the industry's challenges [1]. Group 2: Strategic Investments and Research Development - On July 22, 2025, Moutai Group announced a joint investment of 1 billion yuan to establish the Guizhou Moutai Distillery (Group) Science and Technology Research Institute, focusing on innovation in liquor brewing technology and industry chain advancements [3]. - Moutai's R&D investment increased by 11% in 2024, with a target of 10.2% growth in 2025, reflecting a commitment to technological transformation [3]. - The establishment of the research institute aims to create a comprehensive research system covering the entire liquor production chain, enhancing the industry's future prospects [3]. Group 3: Financial Resilience and Brand Strength - Moutai is the only trillion-level enterprise in the liquor industry to maintain over 15% growth for three consecutive years, with total revenue reaching 1,741.44 billion yuan and profit totaling 1,196.39 billion yuan in 2024, both showing year-on-year increases of 15.66% and 15.41% respectively [5]. - The brand's strong recognition and premium positioning allow it to dominate the high-end market despite shifting consumer trends [5]. - Moutai has established a comprehensive control over its supply chain, enhancing its ability to withstand risks [5]. Group 4: Market Strategies and Consumer Engagement - Moutai Sauce Aroma Liquor Company is implementing a "three-end synergy" strategy to enhance channel connectivity between brands and consumers, actively engaging with new retail platforms [8]. - The company is transitioning from merely selling products to promoting a lifestyle, enhancing consumer value through cultural and quality experiences [11]. - Initiatives include hosting events to elevate brand experience and launching product upgrades to meet consumer expectations [11]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Industry Leadership - Moutai's leadership emphasizes the importance of a strong brand quality advantage, stable channel resources, and adaptability in responding to market changes [12]. - The company aims to drive the industry towards value-driven growth, setting a standard for combating counterfeit products and promoting sales regulations [12]. - Moutai's innovative and regulatory approach is expected to solidify its position as a leader in high-quality development during the industry's adjustment phase [12].

Summary of the White Wine Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the white wine industry, particularly the impact of recent policies and market conditions on investment strategies and company performance [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of the Alcohol Ban**: The alcohol ban has affected sales by at least 30%, primarily impacting consumption among civil servants, state-owned enterprises, and public institutions, which delays the expected industry cycle turning point to 2025 Q3 [1][4]. 2. **Differences in Current and Previous Cycles**: The current cycle differs from 2012-2015 as it restricts drinking scenarios rather than just high-end wine purchases, leading to more severe policy impacts on the industry [5][7]. 3. **Short-term Industry Pressure**: The white wine industry faces short-term pressures with no significant recovery in the dining and drinking markets, and intensified competition in the mid-to-high-end segment [1][6][10]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: A counter-cyclical investment strategy is recommended, focusing on companies' profit and market value bottoms under pessimistic conditions. For instance, if Moutai's price drops to 1,500 yuan, it could still yield over 10 billion yuan in profit with a dividend yield exceeding 5% [1][9]. 5. **Best Investment Timing**: The best time to invest in the white wine sector is expected to be in the fall of 2025, as the impact of the alcohol ban will be significant in Q3, and Moutai's price may hit a bottom [11][13]. 6. **Institutional Holdings**: Institutional holdings in the white wine sector have dropped to levels seen in 2016, indicating a clean slate for potential market recovery once sentiment improves or favorable policies are introduced [2][13]. 7. **Recommended Stocks**: The recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, with additional attention to Shede and Koude Jiao, as well as the emerging consumption logic of Zhenjiu Lidou [1][20]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Market Dynamics**: The white wine market is influenced by various factors, including policy changes, economic conditions, and internal competition among brands, particularly in the mid-to-high-end segment [7][8]. 2. **Challenges Ahead**: The industry faces challenges such as ongoing short-term pressures, intensified competition, and the need for companies to adjust pricing strategies and product structures [8][10]. 3. **Long-term Outlook**: Despite current challenges, the white wine industry is expected to recover in the long term, with cyclical characteristics suggesting eventual market recovery [10][12]. 4. **Emerging Brands**: Emerging brands like Zhenjiu Lidou are gaining attention due to innovative marketing strategies and product offerings that appeal to new consumer segments [17][19]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the conference call regarding the white wine industry, highlighting the current challenges and potential investment opportunities.

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.6%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.8%, the STAR 50 also went up by 0.8%, the CSI 1000 gained 0.4%, the ChiNext Index increased by 0.6%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.5% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on that day were coal (+6.2%), building materials (+4.5%), construction decoration (+3.4%), steel (+2.6%), and non-ferrous metals (+2.0%). The worst-performing sectors included banking (-1.0%), computers (-0.7%), telecommunications (-0.4%), electronics (-0.2%), and textiles and apparel (-0.2%) [3][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,893 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.72 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Industry Insights Alcohol Industry - The report analyzes the current adjustment period in the alcohol industry, comparing it with the previous adjustment period to summarize a counter-cyclical investment strategy [5] - Short-term impacts on consumption scenarios are more severe, while medium to long-term focus should be on the bottoming out of cycles and strategic choices of liquor companies across four dimensions [5] - Key investment opportunities are identified from now until the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with recommendations for leading liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao based on their financial performance and dividend yields [5] Social Services Industry - The report highlights ongoing competition in the local and e-commerce sectors, particularly in instant retail, with a focus on the acceleration of this market segment [6] - The report expresses optimism about the growth of instant retail, noting that Meituan has a significant advantage and is likely to maintain its leading position [6] - Investment opportunities are seen in the increasing penetration rates of instant retail and the rapid growth of multi-platform instant retail formats, with Meituan leading and Alibaba potentially emerging as a strong competitor [6]

Core Viewpoint - Despite facing significant financial difficulties, Tachen International continues to provide substantial loans to its controlling listed company, Tibet Summit, raising questions about the rationale behind this ongoing financial support [1][2][15]. Group 1: Financial Situation of Tachen International - Tachen International's operating revenue for 2024 was zero, with a net loss of 387 million yuan, and its total assets stood at 3.169 billion yuan, with net assets of 999 million yuan [1][6][16]. - The company has been in a debt crisis for an extended period, with outstanding debts amounting to 1.518 billion yuan, including significant tax liabilities [19]. - Tachen International's shareholding in Tibet Summit has drastically decreased from 38.25% in June 2021 to below 8% currently, raising concerns about its control over the company [2][21]. Group 2: Financial Support to Tibet Summit - Tachen International has provided financial support to Tibet Summit for ten consecutive years, with cumulative loans peaking at over 270 million yuan [1][4]. - The latest loan attempt in April 2024 was met with opposition but was ultimately approved by the majority of shareholders, allowing Tachen International to lend up to 200 million yuan [3][11]. - As of the end of 2024, the loan balance to Tibet Summit had increased to 122.5 million yuan, representing 15.8% of Tachen International's net assets [6][12]. Group 3: Tibet Summit's Financial Challenges - Tibet Summit is experiencing cash flow issues, with a monetary fund balance of 294 million yuan against short-term borrowings and payables totaling 926 million yuan, indicating a short-term debt repayment gap of approximately 632 million yuan [11]. - The company's revenue has declined from 1.973 billion yuan in 2022 to 1.639 billion yuan in 2024, with net profits fluctuating significantly during the same period [12]. - Major projects requiring substantial investment, such as lithium extraction initiatives, have faced funding challenges, further complicating Tibet Summit's financial situation [12][13].