关税的余威，先伤到了美国自己。 如果"高通胀"叠加了"高失业"，那么意味着留给美联储的空间不多了。不过，美联储降息意味着全球的大放水开始，历史经验表明，美联储降息通常利好美 股和美债，利空美元指数。对非美资产而言，美联储降息将会削弱美元资产的吸引力，驱动全球资金重新配置。 近期，最亮眼的莫过于A股与黄金，中国的楼市也"蠢蠢欲动"，美股也出现了很多变数，那么本轮放水之下，各类资产会去往何方？ 美联储的降息成为了"全村人"的希望，但这一次降息的经济环境真的有些艰难：就业失业数据都很难看，美联储独立性受到前所未有的挑战，美元信用遭受 到了质疑......甚至还出现了美国存在滞胀风险以及美国经济"硬着陆"的声音。 搜狐号财经推出【全球市场风向标】活动，第一时间追踪市场变化，并特邀各位搜狐号财经大V分析师为大家解读趋势，第一谈我们聚焦股市、楼市与存款 存在哪些变化。 @郭施亮的博客：对新兴市场来说，美联储步入新一轮降息周期，对新兴市场股市和楼市的影响比较有利。作为市场资金情绪风向标的股票市场，短期受到 的刺激影响可能会大于楼市。 高盛的分析显示，美国消费者已承担了约22%的关税成本，如果关税维持现状，最终这一成本可能高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fluctuation in resident deposits cannot adequately explain the stock market's rise and fall, as the key to stock market movements lies more with non-bank financial institutions rather than changes in resident deposits [2][3][4]. Group 1: Resident Deposit Changes and Stock Market - Since 2009, July has consistently shown negative growth in resident deposits, indicating seasonal factors rather than significant economic implications [3]. - Historical data shows that in 11 out of 17 years since 2009, the stock market rose in July, despite significant drops in resident deposits in some years [3]. - The relationship between resident deposit changes and stock market performance appears weak, as evidenced by contrasting outcomes in various years despite similar deposit declines [4]. Group 2: Non-Bank Financial Institutions - Changes in deposits from non-bank financial institutions are more reliable indicators of stock market performance, with significant increases in their deposits correlating with stock market gains [5]. - In July 2023, non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.14 trillion yuan in deposits, which was a substantial year-on-year increase [5]. - A strong positive correlation exists between the changes in non-bank financial institution deposits and stock market performance, suggesting that as these deposits increase, the stock market tends to rise [6]. Group 3: Resident Sector Leverage - The trend of residents saving more and borrowing less continues, indicating a de-leveraging process within the resident sector [8]. - As of Q2 2023, the leverage ratio for the resident sector was 61.1%, a slight decrease from the previous year, reflecting ongoing de-leveraging efforts [8]. - Historical data shows that the resident sector has undergone multiple rounds of de-leveraging, with the current trend being the most recent in a series of adjustments since 2004 [12]. Group 4: Economic Context and Policy Implications - The current economic environment, characterized by high leverage ratios and a focus on de-leveraging, suggests that expectations for a quick reversal in this trend may be unrealistic [15]. - The government may need to increase leverage to stabilize and stimulate demand, especially in light of the challenges faced by the resident sector [16]. - The historical context of leverage changes in response to economic crises indicates that government intervention is crucial for maintaining macroeconomic stability [16].

Core Insights - The decline in household deposits in July 2023 is interpreted as a seasonal effect rather than a significant economic indicator, as historical data shows similar trends in previous years [2][3] - The relationship between household deposit changes and stock market fluctuations is weak, with non-bank financial institutions playing a more crucial role in market movements [4][5] - The trend of "more savings, less borrowing" among Chinese households continues, indicating a persistent deleveraging process [7][10] Group 1: Household Deposits and Loans - In July 2023, household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, which is 780 billion yuan more than the same month last year [1] - The decline in household loans in July 2023, amounting to 489.3 billion yuan, marks a shift from the previous trend of positive growth since 2009 [3] - Cumulatively, household deposits increased by 9.66 trillion yuan in the first seven months of 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 720.3 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Stock Market Dynamics - The stock market's performance in July does not correlate strongly with household deposit changes, as evidenced by varying stock index movements despite significant deposit fluctuations in previous years [2][4] - Non-bank financial institutions saw an increase in deposits of 2.14 trillion yuan in July 2023, indicating a potential shift in investment behavior away from traditional bank deposits [4][5] Group 3: Deleveraging Trends - The household leverage ratio in China has slightly decreased to 61.1% as of Q2 2023, down from 62.3% in Q1 2023, indicating ongoing deleveraging efforts [7][10] - The average household loan increase in the first seven months of 2023 was only 680.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 579.4 billion yuan compared to the previous year [4] - The widening gap between new deposits and new loans, reaching 8.98 trillion yuan, highlights the trend of households prioritizing savings over borrowing [4]

Core Insights - The fluctuations in the stock market are more influenced by non-bank financial institutions rather than changes in household deposits, indicating a continued trend of excess savings among Chinese residents [1][2][4] - The monthly data volatility does not alter the ongoing trend of household deleveraging, as evidenced by the widening loan-to-deposit gap [1][4] Summary by Sections Household Deposits - In July, household deposits in RMB decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan, which is 780 billion yuan more than the same month last year, reflecting seasonal factors rather than a significant trend [2][3] - Since 2009, July has consistently shown negative growth in household deposits, with 11 out of 14 years seeing stock market gains during this month [2] Household Loans - For the first time since 2009, household loans decreased in July, dropping by 489.3 billion yuan, which is significantly lower than the average for the same period from 2020 to 2024 [3][4] - The trend of "more savings, less borrowing" is evident, with household loans increasing by only 680.8 billion yuan in the first seven months of the year, a decrease of 579.4 billion yuan year-on-year [4] Non-Bank Financial Institutions - The increase in deposits at non-bank financial institutions is a more reliable indicator of stock market movements, with a notable increase of 2.14 trillion yuan in July, which is 1.39 trillion yuan more than the previous year [4][5] - The correlation between changes in non-bank financial institution deposits and stock market performance is moderate to strong, suggesting that as these deposits increase, the stock market tends to rise [5][6] Deleveraging Trends - The household leverage ratio has slightly decreased, with the ratio at 61.1% as of the second quarter, down from 62.3% in the previous year [7][11] - The ongoing trend of household deleveraging reflects a broader economic context where the leverage ratio of the entire economy has been rising, with households contributing less to this increase compared to other sectors [10][11] Economic Context - The current economic environment shows that despite the increase in household savings, there is a lack of willingness to invest in riskier assets, indicating potential for future diversification in asset allocation [6][16] - The government may need to increase leverage to stabilize and stimulate demand, as current household debt levels and consumption capabilities are insufficient [16]

Group 1 - The attractiveness of bank deposits has significantly declined, with many investors shifting their focus to capital markets due to decreasing deposit interest rates [3][5] - As of July, the People's Bank of China reported a net increase of 5 trillion yuan in RMB deposits, with non-bank financial institutions seeing a rise of 2.14 trillion yuan, while household deposits showed a negative growth [3][5] - The average interest rates for fixed-term deposits have dropped, with one-year deposits now below 2%, leading to a decrease in real income for depositors [5][6] Group 2 - The stock market has seen a remarkable rise, with A-shares surpassing 100 trillion yuan in market capitalization, indicating a growing consensus of a bull market [4] - The low interest rate environment is pushing users to seek alternative assets, as traditional bank deposits no longer provide adequate returns [5][8] - Financial technology advancements have transformed investment practices, allowing easier access to a variety of financial products, thus attracting investors away from traditional bank deposits [8][9] Group 3 - The robust performance of the stock market, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, has drawn significant investor interest, with many seeking higher returns compared to bank deposits [8][9] - The implementation of a registration system and improved delisting mechanisms in the stock market has enhanced the investment landscape, providing more opportunities for investors [9][12] - The trend of financial disintermediation reflects a shift towards direct financing and diversified investment channels, which is becoming the norm for household participation in the economy [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the phenomenon of "deposit migration" in the Chinese banking sector, particularly focusing on the shift of funds from fixed deposits to demand deposits and investments in the stock market. Core Insights and Arguments - **M1 Growth and Economic Indicators**: M1 growth has risen to 5.6% in July, indicating improved monetary liquidity and suggesting a potential bottoming out of economic demand and inflation, typically leading by about six months [2] - **Deposit Migration Drivers**: The migration of deposits is driven by several factors including a recovery in the stock market, changes in long-term economic expectations, and a resurgence in the financial assets of high-net-worth individuals [10] - **Excess Savings**: Approximately 5 trillion yuan of excess savings accumulated between 2022 and 2024 is a significant source for potential market entry, supported by a liquidity-rich environment and government leverage [5][20] - **Stock Market Activity**: Since August, A-share trading volume has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating increased trading activity, although the number of new accounts opened is still below last year's peak [6] - **Shift in Loan Composition**: The proportion of loans for mechanical manufacturing and green finance has increased from 40% to 70%, while real estate loans have dropped to 0%, reflecting a shift in financial resource allocation [3][7] Additional Important Content - **Impact of Fixed Deposits**: A significant amount of fixed deposits, particularly those maturing in 2025, is expected to be reallocated, with about 70 trillion yuan in total fixed deposits maturing, including 7 trillion yuan in three-year fixed deposits [14][13] - **Financial Disintermediation**: The phenomenon of financial disintermediation has led to a significant outflow of deposits towards non-bank financial products, with an estimated drag on physical deposits of about 12 trillion yuan, which has since reduced to 8 trillion yuan [8] - **Contribution to Deposit Creation**: The contribution of fiscal measures to deposit creation has increased from 25% in 2023 to 53% currently, while the contribution from entity credit has decreased from 73% to 41% [9] - **Potential Market Entry Funds**: The potential funds available for market entry are estimated to be between 5 to 7 trillion yuan, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and external environments [11][21] - **Liquidity and Investment Trends**: The trend of residents and enterprises activating their deposits is expected to enhance market liquidity and stimulate investment activities, with a projected increase in M1 growth to around 10% [17][18] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of deposit migration, market conditions, and potential investment opportunities within the Chinese financial landscape.

Group 1 - The article highlights signs of deposits moving towards the stock market since May, driven by factors such as increased M1 growth and a shift in deposit trends [1] - M1 growth reached 5.6% year-on-year in July, up from 2.3% in May, indicating a trend of deposit activation [1] - There is a notable increase in the popularity of equity funds, with a slowdown in fixed-income wealth management products compared to last year [1][9] Group 2 - The capital market has become more active, with daily trading volumes in A-shares exceeding 2 trillion yuan since August [2] - The number of new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 26% in July compared to May, although it remains below the peak in October of the previous year [2] Group 3 - The article discusses the sources of deposits, including fiscal spending and international balance of payments, which have contributed to deposit creation [15] - The contribution of fiscal measures to deposit creation rose from 25% at the end of 2023 to 53% currently, while the contribution from entity credit decreased from 73% to 41% [15][23] Group 4 - Factors driving the movement of deposits to the stock market include improved risk appetite due to government stimulus policies and a recovery in stock market returns [31] - The average return on A-shares over the past 12 months has reached around 20%, prompting a shift in investment strategies [31][33] Group 5 - The potential for deposits to move into the stock market is estimated at 5-7 trillion yuan, based on excess savings, maturing deposits, and the activation of deposits [45][46] - The article notes that the actual movement of deposits will depend on macroeconomic conditions, policy expectations, and external factors [45][46] Group 6 - The shift of deposits to the stock market is expected to benefit banks by expanding interest margins and improving the outlook for credit demand [48] - The article suggests that while the stock market's attractiveness may reduce the appeal of high-dividend yields, it remains attractive for long-term funds [48]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for residents' deposits to shift towards the stock market, highlighting signs of this trend emerging since May 2023, driven by various economic factors and changes in investor behavior [2][30]. Group 1: Signs of Deposit Migration - Since May 2023, there have been indications of deposits moving towards the stock market, including an increase in M1 growth from 2.3% in May to 5.6% in July, suggesting a trend of deposit activation [2]. - The growth of fixed-income wealth management products has slowed compared to last year, while equity mutual funds and private securities investment funds have seen a rebound in growth [2]. - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4 trillion yuan in July, indicating that deposits may be entering brokerage margin accounts in preparation for market entry [2][9]. Group 2: Capital Market Activity - Since August 2023, the A-share market has seen daily trading volumes exceed 2 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in trading activity and a financing balance surpassing 2 trillion yuan [3]. - The number of new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 26% from May to July, although it remains below the peak levels seen in October 2022 [3]. Group 3: Sources of Deposit Creation - The article estimates that residents have accumulated approximately 5 trillion yuan in "excess savings" from 2022 to 2024, which could potentially be used for investment [14]. - The contribution of fiscal measures to deposit creation has risen from 25% at the end of 2023 to 53% currently, while the contribution from entity credit has decreased from 73% to 41% [14]. - The weakening of financial disintermediation has led to a significant outflow of deposits from fixed-income products back into the banking system, contributing to the recent increase in deposits [15]. Group 4: Motivations for Deposit Migration - Improved risk appetite among residents, driven by government stimulus policies and positive economic expectations, has led to a shift in investment behavior towards the stock market [30]. - The current environment of weak returns from major risk assets like real estate and stocks has prompted funds to flow into higher-yielding investments, with the A-share market showing a 12-month average return of around 20% [30]. - The weakening of the US dollar has facilitated the return of overseas funds to the Chinese stock market, as investors seek better returns domestically [31]. Group 5: Potential for Deposit Migration - The potential for deposits to migrate to the stock market is estimated at around 5-7 trillion yuan, which could exceed the amounts seen during previous market rallies in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 [42]. - The upcoming maturity of approximately 70 trillion yuan in fixed-term deposits in 2025 may drive residents to seek higher-yielding assets, as the re-pricing of these deposits will result in lower interest rates [40]. - The activation of deposits, driven by a favorable economic environment, could lead to an additional net increase of around 5 trillion yuan in resident demand deposits, which may also flow into the stock market [41].

Core Viewpoint - By the end of 2024, China's total asset management scale is expected to reach 150 trillion yuan, indicating significant growth across various asset management sectors despite regulatory challenges and a shift towards financial disintermediation [1][5]. Group 1: Historical Development of Asset Management - The asset management industry in China has evolved significantly since the introduction of bank wealth management products in 2004, with key milestones including the rise of trust companies in 2011 and the implementation of the Asset Management New Regulations in 2018 [2]. - The industry has transitioned from rapid growth to a more regulated and transparent environment, with the establishment of wealth management subsidiaries and a focus on compliance since 2019 [2][5]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - As of the end of 2024, the total asset management scale in China is projected to be 157.04 trillion yuan, marking a 13.09% increase from the previous year, the highest growth rate since the introduction of the new regulations [5][6]. - The trust sector has shown the highest growth rate at 23.58%, closely followed by public funds at 20.39% and insurance at 15.08%, while bank wealth management grew by 11.75% [5][6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights Bank Wealth Management - By the end of 2024, bank wealth management is expected to approach 30 trillion yuan, reflecting a recovery from previous declines due to market volatility [9][10]. - The share of bank wealth management in the overall asset management market has decreased from 38.91% in 2012 to 19.07% in 2024, as other sectors like public funds and insurance have gained traction [10]. Trust Sector - The trust industry experienced significant contraction from 2018 to 2020 but has since rebounded, with a notable increase in scale and a shift towards more diversified and professional asset management services [14][15]. Public Funds - Public funds have grown from 846 million yuan in 2000 to 32.83 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, benefiting from favorable market conditions and the shift towards net asset value-based products [16][17]. Insurance Asset Management - Insurance asset management has shown steady growth, reaching over 30 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a market share increase from 11.46% in 2016 to 21.18% in 2024 [18][19]. Securities Asset Management - The securities asset management sector has faced significant declines since 2018, with a 7.76% drop in 2024, reflecting the impact of regulatory changes and a shift away from traditional channel-based business models [20][21].

150亿元是各个资管子行业的加总，其中包含资管子行业中的交叉金融部分，可能高于实际资管规模。但在银行存款利率走低、禁 止银行"手工补息"、规范同业存款的背景下，2024年确实是"金融脱媒"迹象较为明显的一年，包括银行理财、信托、公募基金、保 险这四个资管子行业均呈现规模两位数增长。 翻开资管行业的历史卷轴：2004年银行理财"横空出世"，这是中国资管业划时代的变化；2011年开始银信合作兴起，信托业迈入大 发展时期；2012年证监会发布《证券公司客户资产管理业务管理办法》，券商资管、基金子公司规模激增；2013年天弘基金联手支 付宝推出余额宝，互联网公司倒逼传统金融机构布局线上渠道；2015年的"股灾"暴露了场外配资、结构化资管计划加剧市场波动等 乱象，"伞形信托"被叫停；2018年多部门联合发布"资管新规"——《关于规范金融机构资产管理业务的指导意见》，行业清理影子 银行、正本清源，打破刚兑、禁止资金池、限制期限错配，大资管回归同一起跑线；2019年起至今理财子公司陆续呱呱落地，清洁 起步，构成资管行业合规发展新势力；到2024年末，银行理财净值化率98%，非标资产基本出清，大资管行业从野蛮生长逐步走向 规 ...