从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 国内宏观预期升温 盘面高位风险积累 供应方面：当前外矿发运进入发运淡季，周度发运量连续两周环比回落，根据季节性规律， 在 2 月中旬之前，外矿发运将保持环比走弱态势但整体会高于去年同期，原因是去年同期澳洲 受飓风影响导致基数偏低；国产矿供给同样处于淡季，整体看，供给端步入季节性环比收缩阶 段但供给端支撑力度提升则需要出现超预期下滑。截止 1 月 12 日，Mysteel 全球铁矿石发运总 量 3180.9 万吨，环比减少 32.8 万吨，同比增加 365.3 万吨，澳洲巴西 19 港铁矿发运总量 2533.2 万吨，环比减少 133.3 万吨，同比增加 145.7 万吨。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内需求连续三周回升且处于近五年同期最高水平，钢厂盈利率在碳元素价格 下跌后有所企稳，钢材库存尚未出现超季节性累库，整体看，国内钢厂需求短期存在继续回升 预期，且节前补库周期逐步开启，预计补库需求将持续释放。 库存方面：钢厂端进口矿库存连续三周回升，钢厂开启春节节前季节性补库周期但钢厂库 存仍处于近五 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货钢矿周报 钢厂铁水持续回升，钢材库存小幅累库 20260111 孙伟涛 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 审核人：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 需求端 4 库存端 5 供应端 6 原料端-铁矿石 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 螺纹钢观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 库存：最新五大钢材库存开始累库，其中虽然存在元旦假期影响，但随着需求逐渐转弱，累库压力增加。其 中 ...

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 黑色系补涨，矿价高位震荡 铁矿石周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2026/01/10 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 周度要点小结 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 ◆ 供应：全球铁矿石发运总量3213.7万吨，环比减少463.4万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2742.7万吨，环比减少316.9万吨。澳洲发运量1939.6 万吨，环比减少174.1万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1615.3万吨，环比减少252.3万吨。巴西发运量803.2万吨，环比减少142.7万吨。中国47 港到港总量2824.7万吨，环比增加96.9万吨；中国45港到港总量2756.4万吨，环比增加155.0万吨。 ◆ 需求：日均铁水产量229.5万吨，环比上周增加2.07万吨。高炉炼铁产能利用率86.04%，环比上周增加0.78个百分点；钢厂盈利率37.66%， 环比上周减少0.44个百分 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The destocking of the five major steel products continued during the pre - holiday market. The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved, with prices forming some support at low levels. The market drivers were limited, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Overall, the destocking may gradually slow down, and the upward momentum of prices is insufficient. Steel prices are expected to be under pressure in the short term, but the downside space is limited. Iron ore is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, but high port inventories will put pressure on its subsequent trend. The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][4][5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - During the pre - holiday market, the five major steel products continued to destock. The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil improved, and prices at low levels provided some support. The market drivers were limited, with strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot and futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range [9]. 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil both increased production. Rebar's weekly output was 188.22 tons (up 2.08% week - on - week and down 8.64% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil's weekly output was 304.51 tons (up 3.74% week - on - week and up 0.58% year - on - year). Rebar's blast furnace and electric furnace production both increased. The blast furnace weekly output was 157.49 tons (up 1.62% week - on - week and down 11.32% year - on - year), and the electric furnace weekly output was 30.73 tons (up 4.49% week - on - week and up 8.17% year - on - year) [13][17][22]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces both increased. The national blast furnace operating rate was 78.94% (up 0.79% week - on - week and up 0.29% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 68.63% (up 1.48% week - on - week and up 1.13% year - on - year) [23][27]. - **Profit**: Rebar's profit increased, while hot - rolled coil's profit slightly decreased. Rebar's profit was +48 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil's profit was - 29 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 58 yuan/ton year - on - year) [28][31]. - **Demand**: Rebar's demand slightly decreased, while hot - rolled coil's demand increased. Rebar's apparent consumption was 200.44 tons (down 1.11% week - on - week and up 5.47% year - on - year), and the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 9.66 tons (down 1.54% week - on - week and down 8.07% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil's apparent consumption was 310.77 tons (up 1.21% week - on - week and up 2.66% year - on - year) [32][36]. - **Inventory**: Rebar's inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Rebar's factory inventory was 139.37 tons (down 0.49% week - on - week and up 14.76% year - on - year), social inventory was 282.66 tons (down 3.92% week - on - week and down 1.53% year - on - year), and total inventory was 422.03 tons (down 2.81% week - on - week and up 3.31% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil's inventory decreased, with factory inventory rising and social inventory decreasing. Factory inventory was 82.32 tons (up 2.24% week - on - week and up 0.59% year - on - year), social inventory was 288.64 tons (down 2.72% week - on - week and up 24.01% year - on - year), and total inventory was 370.96 tons (down 1.66% week - on - week and up 20.79% year - on - year) [37][41][42][46]. - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, both the commercial housing and land markets declined month - on - month. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 26.09% month - on - month and 16.33% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 74.78% month - on - month and 49.44% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in November 2025, automobile production and sales continued to grow both month - on - month and year - on - year. Production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, up 5.1% and 3.2% month - on - month, and 2.8% and 3.4% year - on - year [47][49][52]. 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased month - on - month. The price index of iron ore was 107.92 (up 1.05% month - on - month and up 11.23% year - on - year). The shipments from Australia and Brazil were 3059.6 tons (up 8.70% month - on - month and up 23.36% year - on - year), and the arrivals at 45 ports were 2756.4 tons (up 5.96% month - on - month and down 2.75% year - on - year) [55][60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to increase, and the port clearance volume increased. The daily output of hot metal was 227.43 tons (up 0.85 tons week - on - week and up 2.23 tons year - on - year), the port clearance volume of 45 ports was 325.21 tons (up 3.22% week - on - week and up 2.18% year - on - year), and the inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 31.88 days (up 0.76% week - on - week and down 9.2% year - on - year) [61][65]. - **Inventory**: Iron ore port inventories continued to reach new highs, and steel enterprises' iron ore inventories increased. The inventory at 45 ports was 15970.89 tons (up 0.71% week - on - week and up 6.45% year - on - year), the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8949.54 tons (up 0.97% week - on - week and down 9.25% year - on - year), and the average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 25.42 days (up 0.95% week - on - week and down 7.43% year - on - year) [66][70]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic coking coal mines decreased month - on - month, while Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 79.63% (down 5.44% month - on - month and down 10.21% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 35.09% (down 3.39% month - on - month and up 7.37% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 19.05 tons (up 49.47% month - on - month and up 33.49% year - on - year) [72][76]. - **Demand**: The transaction rate of coking coal auctions decreased month - on - month. The daily transaction rate of coking coal auctions was 65.25% (down 4.07% month - on - month and down 4.47% year - on - year), and the weekly transaction rate was 71.74% (down 12.94% week - on - week and up 54.91% year - on - year) [77][79]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants slightly recovered month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate slightly increased. The profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was - 14 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 2 yuan/ton year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 70.74% (up 0.55% month - on - month and down 2.45% year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of steel mills' coke was 85.58% (up 0.07% month - on - month and down 0.34% year - on - year) [81][85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Port inventories increased month - on - month, and coking plant inventories increased. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 896.10 tons (up 1.42% month - on - month and up 1.02% year - on - year), the coking coal inventory of steel mills was 802.50 tons (down 0.49% month - on - month and up 3.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 301.3 tons (up 0.60% month - on - month and down 39.59% year - on - year) [86][91]. - **Coke Inventory**: Port inventories increased slightly, and coking plant inventories decreased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 48.7 tons (down 2.87% month - on - month and down 3.91% year - on - year), the coke inventory of steel mills was 643.99 tons (up 0.28% month - on - month and down 1.67% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 180.09 tons (up 1.06% month - on - month and up 4.57% year - on - year) [92][97]. - **Spot Price**: The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continued. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1500 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1340 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 220 yuan/ton year - on - year) [98][102]. 5. Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar slightly shrank, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil both shrank. The coil - to - rebar spread continued to shrink, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore shrank [104][108].

需求改善受限 当前来看，上述利多因素依然存在，继续对矿价构成支撑。但铁矿石自身供需面整体偏弱，价格上行动 能仍有不足。2026年以来，钢厂陆续复产，铁矿石需求有所改善。钢联数据显示，247家样本钢厂最新 日均铁水产量为227.43万吨，进口矿日耗为280.67万吨，环比分别增加0.85万吨和0.63万吨，已自低位有 所回升。 然而，铁矿石需求进一步改善空间有限。一方面，钢厂盈利状况尚未好转，长流程钢厂亏损面仍较宽。 钢联统计显示，247家钢厂中盈利比例仅为38.10%，仍处于相对低位。在即期成本核算下，北方地区多 数钢材品种吨钢仍处亏损状态。另一方面，当前下游钢材市场处于传统淡季，行业矛盾逐步累积，部分 品种库存显著高于往年同期，难以承接钢厂大幅复产带来的供应增量，从而抑制其进一步提产动力。 不过，春节临近，钢厂存在集中补库需求。近5年数据显示，节前钢厂厂内库存平均增加约1630万吨， 补库多集中在节前4周，短期将拉动矿石需求并对矿价形成支撑。后续可通过跟踪港口成交情况来验证 实际补库力度。 供应压力偏大 去年12月中旬以来，铁矿石期现价格呈现震荡上行态势，主力合约期价突破近5个月的震荡区间上沿， 且创阶段性 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience high - level oscillations. Its short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the upward driving force is not strong [2]. - The iron ore market is in a state where the supply - demand sides have changed. Although the demand has increased to some extent and the supply has decreased, the fundamentals remain weak, and the subsequent trend will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking situation [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The overall view is high - level oscillation, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weak and the upward driving force is not strong [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Steel mills have started to resume production, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a low level, but the improvement in profitability is limited, and the off - season steel market cannot support a large - scale increase in production, so the rebound space of ore demand is limited. At the same time, the arrival at domestic ports has increased again, but after the year - end rush, the miners' shipments have dropped significantly, and the domestic ore supply is also seasonally shrinking, so the ore supply has dropped from a high level. Currently, due to steel mills' restocking and structural contradictions in the spot market, the ore price remains at a high level, but the supply is relatively high while the demand improvement is limited, so the fundamentals are weak and the upward driving force is not strong [3].

李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 铁矿周报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 节前小幅补库 铁矿震荡小涨 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/10 ⚫ 需求端：上周铁水产量止跌回稳，钢厂节前小幅补 库，厂内库存低位回升。上周247家钢厂高炉开工率 78.32%，环比上周减少0.15个百分点，同比去年减少 0.39个百分点，日均铁水产量 226.58万吨，环比上 周增加0.03万吨，同比去年减少1.29万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外铁矿到港量与发运环比回落，均处 于历史同期高位水平，港口库存大幅增加，供应压力 不减。上周全球铁矿石发运总3464.5万吨，环比减少 128.0万吨。库存方面， ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand during the off - season, and the winter storage has not arrived yet. The implementation of the steel export license system and changes in the production license system have been fully reflected in prices. For both steel products and iron ore, it is recommended to hold long positions for medium - term trading [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and demand**: Last week, threaded rod production increased, hot - rolled coil production decreased, and the production of the five major steel varieties decreased. Overall inventory continued to decline. Threaded rod apparent demand rebounded slightly, while the overall apparent demand of the five major varieties declined. Due to the significant drop in steel mill gross profit and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill production is expected to continue to decline slowly. Recently, the sharp rebound in coal and coke prices has increased the cost support for the market [2] - **Technical analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract of steel products briefly fell below the oscillation range and then quickly rebounded. Currently, it has not broken out of the recent oscillation range or formed a downward breakthrough [2] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [2] - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of the threaded rod and hot - rolled coil main contracts, as well as their spot prices, all showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous week. For example, the threaded rod main contract closing price was 3126 yuan/ton, up 1.69% from the previous week [2] - **Basis and spread**: There were changes in the basis and spreads of various steel products. For example, the threaded rod main basis decreased by 22 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [2] - **Production**: The production of threaded rods by national building material steel mills increased by 1.62% to 181.68 million tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5.44% to 291.91 million tons [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory and steel mill inventory of the five major varieties decreased, with the social inventory of the five major varieties dropping by 3.74% to 906.47 million tons [2] - **Apparent demand**: The overall apparent demand of the five major varieties decreased by 0.53% to 835.28 million tons [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of the five major steel varieties decreased. With the arrival of the off - season, iron - water production is likely to continue to decline seasonally. The reduction of steel mill production suppresses raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - festival restocking demand will also arrive later than usual [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments remain at a high level, and the continuous increase in port inventory suppresses futures prices. The building steel bar production license system and the inclusion of steel products in export license management have been fully digested by the market [4] - **Technical analysis**: The 05 contract has not broken out of the wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [4] - **Operation suggestion**: Hold long positions and conduct medium - term trading [4] - **Data summary**: - **Price**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 781.5 yuan/dry ton, up 3.78% from the previous week. The prices of various iron ore powders at ports also changed to different extents [4][5] - **Basis and spread**: There were fluctuations in the basis and spreads of iron ore futures, such as the DCE iron ore futures 9 - 1 spread increasing by 6.0 yuan/dry ton compared to the previous week [5] - **Shipment**: Australian iron ore shipments decreased by 3.41% to 1703.9 million tons, and Brazilian iron ore shipments decreased by 8.77% to 747.6 million tons [5] - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased by 0.53% to 15512.63 million tons, while the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills decreased by 1.52% to 1180.48 million tons [5] 3.3 Industry News - Six special working groups led by multiple departments have carried out inspections in 12 key regions across the country to combat illegal mining of mineral resources. As of now, inspections have been completed in Guangxi, Hubei, and other places [7] - As of the week of December 21st, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 million tons to 3464.5 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil decreased by 150.8 million tons to 2814.7 million tons [7] - From December 15th to 21st, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 137.9 million tons to 2790.2 million tons, and the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports decreased by 76.7 million tons to 2646.7 million tons [7] - On the 22nd, mainstream steel mills in the Shandong market lowered their coke procurement prices, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in the Hebei market also lowered their coke procurement prices [8] - An alloy factory in Inner Mongolia's Chayouqianqi has successively ignited the first and second silicon - manganese alloy submerged arc furnaces and plans to ignite the third before the Spring Festival in 2026 and the fourth after the Spring Festival [8]

研究报告 铁矿周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约上涨 2.63%。 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.47%，环比减少 0.16%，同比减少 1.16%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 84.93%，环比减少 0.99%， 同比减少 1.20%；钢厂盈利率 35.93%，环比持平，同比减少 12.55%；日均 铁水产量 226.55 万吨，环比减少 2.65 万吨，同比减少 2.86 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 22 日星期一 后市展望：港口铁矿石库存继续累库，铁水产量延续下降，供需双弱， 上周受偏强的商品市场情绪影响震荡反弹，铁矿中期预计以偏弱震荡为主。 单边：谨慎逢高轻仓偏空对待，若后市站稳 800 元/吨重要压力位，则 建议离场观望 （一）期货价格 （二） ...

期货 铁水下行叠加堆存成本上升,矿价延续区间调整 东证衍生品研究院黑色金属资深分析师：许惠敏 从业资格号 : F3081016 投资咨询号 : Z0016073 报告日期：2025年12月19日 铁矿石周度聚焦： 重点新闻及产业链动态 | 重点新闻 | | --- | | 钢厂动态 | | 【2025-12-18】 AMNS印度公司计划到2030年将钢铁产能提升至2500-2600万吨 （来源：我的钢铁网） | | 矿山动态 | | 【2025-12-16】 力拓联手合资伙伴投资1.91亿美元启动澳大利亚Rhodes Ridge铁矿可行性研究 （来源：我的钢铁网） | | 【2025-12-17】 巴西阿马帕州铁矿项目计划于2026年重启 （来源：我的钢铁网） | | 【2025-12-18】 澳洲矿企Genmin完成1700万美元融资，加速推进加蓬Baniaka铁矿项目 （来源：我的钢铁网） | | 【2025-12-19】 印度SAIL与卡林加公司签署28年Rowghat铁矿开采合同 强化原料供应链 （来源：我的钢铁网） | | 【2025-12-19】 美国矿业公司MagIron获得明尼苏达州首批赤铁矿 ...