Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: March 31, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - If the news about the relaxation of the BHP iron ore ban is true, the previously piled - up BHP iron ore at ports may gradually enter the market, causing the ore price to be weak in the short term. However, as downstream demand gradually recovers and steel enterprises maintain a stable resumption of production rhythm, the ore price may strengthen again after the short - term impact fades [11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On March 30, the main quotes of major iron ore outer disks increased by $0.2 per ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major grade iron ores at Qingdao Port remained the same as the previous trading day [9] - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the daily KDJ indicator continued to decline, and the red bars of the daily MACD indicator had been narrowing for 9 consecutive trading days [9] 1.2 Future Outlook - News: According to the West Australian on March 15, some domestic steel mills received a notice to temporarily relax the restrictions on a certain BHP iron ore variety. Some domestic steel mills have been allowed to extract the BHP Jimblebar iron ore that was previously积压 at ports due to the ban [10] - Fundamentals: Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil rebounded, increasing by 736,000 tons to 24.583 million tons, and the arrival volume also increased by 566,000 tons to 22.716 million tons. The total shipments from 19 ports in the past four weeks increased by 6.99% compared with the previous four weeks, and the subsequent arrival volume is expected to recover [10][11] - Demand: Affected by the production restrictions of some steel enterprises during the Two Sessions, the daily average pig iron output decreased significantly. Since last week, the resumption of production of steel enterprises has accelerated, and the daily average pig iron output has rebounded to over 2.3 million tons. With the arrival of the peak demand season, the pig iron output is expected to have further growth space [11] - Inventory: This week, the available days of inventory increased by 2 days to 23 days and are expected to remain around 20 - 23 days. The port inventory decreased slightly this week but remained at a relatively high level of 170 million tons. Considering the possible relaxation of the BHP iron ore ban, the short - term inventory may decline further [11] 2. Industry News - Kpler's Muyu Xu said that the Mandeb Strait has become an increasingly important route for Middle - East crude oil supplies to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. In March so far, 4.14 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait daily, a significant increase from 2.95 million barrels per day in February, reaching the highest level since October 2023 [12] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade/ low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract at Qingdao Port, the shipping volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volumes at major ports, the inventory available days of steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, the tax - free pig iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][20][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the iron ore market is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of iron ore is relatively abundant, but there are structural contradictions. After the Two Sessions, steel mills' blast furnaces resumed production, and the hot metal output increased significantly, leading to an increase in the rigid demand for raw material ore. Considering the high - level port inventories, the slight increase in steel mill inventories, and the tight geopolitical situation in the Middle East driving up shipping costs, the iron ore market is expected to maintain an oscillating and bullish trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the actual restocking situation of steel mills [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - From March 16th to March 22nd, the global iron ore shipping volume was 31.443 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 955,000 tons. Australian shipping volume was 19.957 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.204 million tons; Brazilian shipping volume was 5.489 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 227,000 tons; non - mainstream ore shipping volume was 11.611 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 686,000 tons. The total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 22.716 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 566,000 tons [3] - As of March 20th, the daily average output of iron concentrate from 186 domestic mines was 475,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 141,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 60.81%, a week - on - week increase of 1.81%. The mine concentrate inventory was 1.0047 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 111,900 tons [3] - The shipping volume of FMG to China continued to rise, while that of BHP slightly declined. The shipping volumes of RT and VALE also slightly declined [42][46] - Ocean freight rates remained at a high level, and the arrival volume slightly increased, maintaining a medium level [50][54] Demand - In the week of March 20th, the daily average hot metal output was 2.2815 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 695,000 tons. After the Two Sessions, steel mills' blast furnaces gradually resumed production, and the increment of hot metal output significantly increased, leading to an increase in the rigid demand for raw material ore compared with the previous period [3] - The profit of steel mills' blast furnaces was relatively stable [63] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore slightly declined this period, with the number of ships at the port decreasing by 10 to 100. The port congestion continued to decrease, the arrival volume increased, the port inventory slightly declined but remained at a high level, and the steel mill inventory slightly increased, maintaining a low - inventory strategy, but the rigid - demand procurement increased [3] - The inventory of Australian ore at ports was at a high level, while the inventory of Brazilian ore slightly declined. The inventory of coarse powder at ports slowly decreased from a high level, and the inventory of lump ore was relatively stable [82][90] - The steel mill inventory slightly increased from a low level [99] Price and Spread - The spot price was oscillating with a bullish bias [5] - The spread between high - grade and medium - grade ores continued to widen, while the spread between medium - grade and low - grade ores narrowed. The spread between PB powder and Macfarlane powder rebounded [10][14] - The 5 - 9 spread slightly rebounded, and the basis of the 05 contract slightly declined [18] - The screw - to - ore ratio slightly declined from a low level, and the ore - to - coke ratio declined from a high level [28]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The iron ore price is expected to continue its volatile and bullish trend. The demand side saw an increase in molten iron production last week, with steel mills' production returning to normal and raw material demand rising. The supply side had an increase in overseas shipments, a decrease in arrivals, better port clearance, and a decline in inventory. With the escalation of the Middle East situation overseas, shipping costs are supportive, and the spot market is strong. [1][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Trading Data - SHFE Rebar: Closing price of 3123 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan, a decline of 0.60%, total trading volume of 4,506,734 lots, and total open interest of 2,426,428 lots. - SHFE Hot Rolled Coil: Closing price of 3297 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan, an increase of 0.06%, total trading volume of 1,494,412 lots, and total open interest of 1,143,177 lots. - DCE Iron Ore: Closing price of 815.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.0 yuan, an increase of 0.49%, total trading volume of 1,159,677 lots, and total open interest of 446,896 lots. - DCE Coking Coal: Closing price of 1171.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.0 yuan, a decline of 0.59%, total trading volume of 4,648,786 lots, and total open interest of 586,793 lots. - DCE Coke: Closing price of 1740.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.0 yuan, an increase of 0.17%, total trading volume of 88,764 lots, and total open interest of 40,365 lots. [2] 2. Market Review - Last week, the iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. Overseas geopolitical conflicts pushed up shipping prices, and the fundamentals lacked highlights. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 795 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the price of Super Special powder was 675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 120 yuan/ton. [4] - On the demand side, the molten iron production increased last week, steel mills' production returned to normal, and raw material demand increased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.78%, a 1.44 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 2.18 - percentage - point decrease compared to the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.53%, a 2.61 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 3.17 - percentage - point decrease compared to the same period last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 42.42%, a 1.29 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 10.83 - percentage - point decrease compared to the same period last year; the daily average molten iron production was 228.15 tons, an increase of 6.95 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 8.11 tons compared to the same period last year. [4] - On the supply side, overseas shipments increased last week, arrivals decreased compared to the previous week, port clearance was good, and inventory declined. The total global iron ore shipments were 3,048.8 tons, an increase of 151.0 tons compared to the previous week. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,464.4 tons, an increase of 122.3 tons compared to the previous week. The Australian shipments were 1,875.3 tons, an increase of 122.1 tons compared to the previous week, and the Australian shipments to China were 1,587.2 tons, an increase of 121.3 tons compared to the previous week. The Brazilian shipments were 589.2 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 17,814.18 tons, a decrease of 133.14 tons compared to the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 335.92 tons, an increase of 3.59 tons. [5] 3. Industry News - From January to February 2026, China's pig iron production was 137.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; crude steel production was 160.34 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; and steel production was 221.19 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. - From January to February, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%, and the decline was 6.1 percentage points narrower than that of the whole previous year. The floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 5.35372 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The newly started floor area was 50.84 million square meters, a decrease of 23.1%. The completed floor area was 63.2 million square meters, a decrease of 27.9%. - From January to February, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 5.2721 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. Industrial investment increased by 5.4% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 13.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 3.1%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 13.1%. Infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% year - on - year. Among them, investment in the air transportation industry increased by 31.1%, investment in the gas production and supply industry increased by 20.0%, and investment in the water transportation industry increased by 17.9%. [10] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to the profitability rate of national steel mills, daily average pig iron production, blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, global pig iron and crude steel production, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, and various inventory and port clearance volume charts. [9][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - environment shows that the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has cooled, the US - Iran conflict maintains high oil prices, and China maintains a loose policy. In the industrial aspect, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil have increased, the arrival volume has decreased, and the domestic port inventory has reached an inflection point. With the increase in molten iron production, the iron ore inventory will continue to be digested. Coupled with the shortage of high - grade powder and lump ore resources, there is still support for the ore price. The I2605 contract is expected to fluctuate upward. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Price**: As of the close on March 20, the price of the iron ore main contract was 815.5 (+4) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 840 (-5) yuan/dry ton [6]. - **Shipment**: The total global iron ore shipment increased by 151,000 tons week - on - week. From March 9 to March 15, 2026, the total global iron ore shipment was 3.0488 billion tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2.4644 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 122,300 tons [5][6]. - **Arrival**: The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 380,500 tons. From March 9 to March 15, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.317 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 380,500 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.215 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 394,900 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.2302 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 234,300 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The molten iron production increased by 69,500 tons. The daily average molten iron production was 2.2815 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 69,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 81,100 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 133,140 tons. As of March 20, 2026, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 17.81418 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 133,140 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.89969 billion tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 9.03406 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 104,960 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 90,800 tons [6]. - **Profit rate**: The profit rate of steel mills was 42.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.83 percentage points [6]. - **Market outlook**: Macroscopically, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled, the US - Iran conflict maintains high oil prices, and China maintains a loose policy. Technically, the I2605 contract of iron ore fluctuates upward, with the price running above 800, and the moving - average combination showing a long - position arrangement; the MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA rebound upward with a stable red column. The I2605 contract is expected to fluctuate upward, and attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: This week, the I2605 contract fluctuated upward. The price of the I2605 contract was stronger than that of the I2609 contract. On the 20th, the price difference was 34.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Warehouse receipts and net positions**: On March 20, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3,400, a week - on - week increase of 200. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 18,636, a decrease of 10,818 compared with the previous week [20]. - **Spot price**: On March 20, the price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 20th, the basis was 25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Arrival volume**: From March 9 to March 15, 2026, the total global iron ore shipment was 3.0488 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 151,000 tons. The total iron ore shipment from Australia and Brazil was 2.4644 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 122,300 tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.317 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 380,500 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.215 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 394,900 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1.2302 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 234,300 tons [29]. - **Inventory**: As of March 20, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 17.81418 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 133,140 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 335,920 tons, an increase of 35,900 tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 8.5238 billion tons, a decrease of 17,980 tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 5.49787 billion tons, a decrease of 66,130 tons; the inventory of traded ore was 11.71468 billion tons, a decrease of 138,100 tons. As of March 20, the total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills in China was 9.03406 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 104,960 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 281,150 tons, a week - on - week increase of 92,000 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 32.13 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70 days [32]. - **Available days and BDI index**: As of March 18, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory of large and medium - sized steel mills in China was 21 days, a week - on - week decrease of 2 days. As of March 19, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,057, a week - on - week increase of 29 [36]. - **Import volume and capacity utilization**: From January to February, China's cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 21.0023 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. As of March 13, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mine samples was 62.39%, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%; the daily average output of refined powder was 393,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the inventory was 47,880 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,190 tons [40]. - **Domestic production**: From January to February 2026, China's iron ore raw ore output was 16.1644 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In February, the iron concentrate output of 433 domestic iron mine enterprises was 2.2618 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 332,000 tons, an increase of 1.5%; a year - on - year decrease of 42,000 tons, a decrease of 0.2% [43]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - **Crude steel production**: From January to February 2026, China's crude steel output was 16.034 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the daily average crude steel output from January to February was 2.718 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.6% [48]. - **Steel import and export**: From January to February 2026, China's cumulative steel exports were 1.5591 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. The cumulative steel imports were 827,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7% [48]. - **Blast furnace operation**: On March 20, the blast furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills was 79.78%, a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.18 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.53%, a week - on - week increase of 2.61 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.17 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.2815 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 69,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 81,100 tons [51]. 3.5 Option Market - **Option strategy**: Since the molten iron production has increased and the port inventory has ended its continuous increase, and the iron ore spot is firm due to the difference in port inventory, which still supports the futures price. It is suggested that when the iron ore futures price retraces, one can consider buying call options [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0.29%, and the volume and open interest increased. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar are weakening, and the weak fundamental pattern remains unchanged. The steel price in the off - season continues to be under pressure, with the cost support being a relative positive factor. It is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.40%, the volume decreased and the open interest increased. At present, the supply of hot - rolled coil is at a high level, while the demand has weakened. The fundamentals are weak, and the hot - rolled coil price will still be under pressure to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the pressure caused by the intensification of the demand - weakening contradiction [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.73%, and the volume and open interest increased. Currently, the high inventory combined with the stable recovery of overseas shipments means that the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided, while the demand is weak. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of iron ore continue to weaken. It is expected that the iron ore price will still be under pressure to run weakly, and attention should be paid to the shipments of miners [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In January 2026, 1329 projects started nationwide, with a total investment of about 7330.51 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of investment were Guangdong, Fujian, and Sichuan, with total investments of 2985.79 billion yuan, 1408.64 billion yuan, and 401.24 billion yuan respectively [7]. - As of February 5, 14 car companies released their new - energy vehicle sales data for January 2026. BYD, Geely, and SAIC ranked in the top three in terms of monthly sales, with 210,100, 124,300, and 85,400 vehicles respectively. Eight car companies achieved year - on - year growth, with GAC Group having the largest increase of 162.90% and Seres having a growth rate of 140.33%. All 14 car companies showed a month - on - month decline, with BAIC New Energy having the largest decline [8]. - In late January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 21.28 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.935 million tons, a 2.2% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.15 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.741 million tons, a 3.0% decrease in daily output month - on - month; and 21.3 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.936 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month [9]. Spot Market - For rebar (HRB400E, 20mm), the Shanghai price was 3,190 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), the Tianjin price was 3,160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the national average price was 3,307 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). For hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm), the Shanghai price was 3,250 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), the Tianjin price was 3,160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the national average price was 3,287 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton). The price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 yuan/ton (unchanged). The coil - rebar price difference was 60 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,030 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 765 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton), the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 772 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Australian freight was 8.35 yuan/ton (down 0.54 yuan/ton), the Brazilian freight was 23.96 yuan/ton (down 1.24 yuan/ton), the SGX swap (current month) was 102.50 (up 0.75), and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 102.25 (up 0.25) [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar active contract was 3,101 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.29%, the highest price was 3,113 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,086 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 681,405 lots (an increase of 67,315 lots), and the open interest was 1,847,671 lots (an increase of 49,444 lots) [14]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil active contract was 3,263 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.40%, the highest price was 3,278 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,255 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 283,875 lots (a decrease of 1,310 lots), and the open interest was 1,494,646 lots (an increase of 11,934 lots) [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore active contract was 768.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.73%, the highest price was 779.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 764.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 331,736 lots (an increase of 91,206 lots), and the open interest was 525,113 lots (an increase of 9,456 lots) [14]. Related Charts - The report presents charts related to steel inventory (including rebar inventory and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory), and steel - mill production (including blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability) [16][24][32] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand are seasonally weakening, and inventory is continuously accumulating. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 81,500 tons month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk, but the inventory level is significantly higher than the same lunar period last year, with limited pressure relief. The demand for rebar continues to be seasonally weak, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions have both shrunk significantly. Considering the lack of improvement in downstream industries, the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, which will continue to drag down the steel price. The relative positive factor is the post - holiday policy expectation. It is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [40]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has changed little, and the inventory has increased again. The production of plate mills has stabilized, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 50 tons month - on - month, and the supply pressure has not subsided. The demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 58,700 tons month - on - month, and the high - frequency daily transactions continue to operate at a low level. Although the high - level production of downstream cold - rolled products provides support for the demand of hot - rolled coil, there are hidden concerns about the demand. The hot - rolled coil price will still be under pressure to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has changed little, and the inventory continues to rise. Steel - mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore is running smoothly. The average daily pig - iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills decreased slightly last week. The demand for iron ore is expected to continue to be weak. The arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, and the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase. The supply of overseas iron ore has stabilized, while the domestic supply is stable. Coupled with the high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided. It is expected that the iron ore price will still be under pressure to run weakly, and attention should be paid to the shipments of miners [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a volatile and bearish outlook, advising attention to risk control [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The I2605 contract decreased in price with reduced positions. Globally, there was a large - scale sell - off in the bond market, causing market volatility. In terms of supply and demand, the shipments and arrivals of Australian and Brazilian iron ore declined, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills decreased slightly, hot metal production remained below 2.3 million tons, and iron ore port inventories reached a new high. Overall, the ports continued to accumulate inventory, with relatively sufficient spot resources. Rio Tinto's quarterly iron ore production and sales reached a new high, and Simandou increased growth potential, which put pressure on iron ore prices in the short term. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 - axis [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.50 yuan; the position volume was 575,249 lots, a decrease of 11,163 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread was 17.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 11,649 lots, a decrease of 5,527 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 1,400 lots, a decrease of 100 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote at 15:00 was 103 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.97 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 846 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 3 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 844 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 1 yuan. The price of 56.5% Chaote powder ore at Jingtang Port was 751 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 4 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 60 yuan, an increase of 4 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 103.55 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.90 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.09, a decrease of 0.01. The estimated import cost was 834 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 2,929.80 million tons, a decrease of 251.10 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,897.70 million tons, a decrease of 117.30 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 17,288.70 million tons, an increase of 244.26 million tons. The iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,262.22 million tons, an increase of 272.63 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,965.00 million tons, an increase of 911.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) were 22 days, an increase of 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 39.95 million tons, an increase of 0.81 million tons. The operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.02%, an increase of 1.30%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 43.44 million tons, a decrease of 0.49 million tons. The BDI index was 1,729.00, an increase of 79.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 20.30 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.02 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 8.45 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.34 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 78.82%, a decrease of 0.51%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 85.46%, a decrease of 0.60%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 6,818 million tons, a decrease of 169 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.81%, an increase of 0.18%. The 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.07%, an increase of 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 17.74%, an increase of 0.80%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 16.06%, a decrease of 0.17% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2,929.8 million tons, a decrease of 251.1 million tons compared with the previous period. The shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,246.6 million tons, a decrease of 359.8 million tons compared with the previous period. From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,897.7 million tons, a decrease of 117.3 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,659.7 million tons, a decrease of 260.7 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,442.9 million tons, a decrease of 26.3 million tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current iron ore supply is relatively abundant, with the demand side seeing a rebound in molten iron production, which provides support for rigid - demand procurement. Coupled with the expectation of winter storage replenishment, the iron ore market will maintain a volatile operation in the short term. The trading strategy is range - bound [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Price - Spot prices are fluctuating and consolidating [7] - The price difference between high - and medium - grade ores is widening, while the price difference between medium - and low - grade ores is temporarily stable. The price difference between PB powder and Mac fine powder is decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread is oscillating at a low level, and the basis of the 05 and 09 contracts is slightly rising [12][16][20] - As of January 5, 2026, the spot price of Karara powder is 895, up 11 from the end of last month, with a notional futures price of 841, also up 11; the spot price of PB powder is 806, up 4, with a notional futures price of 858, up 5; the spot price of Super Special powder is 684, up 4, with a notional futures price of 887, up 5. The high - medium grade price difference is 89, and the medium - low grade price difference is 122. The optimal deliverable product is 61.5% Brazilian coarse ore, with a spot price of 770 and a notional futures price of 838 [29] - The rebar - to - ore ratio continues to decline, and the ore - to - coking coal ratio is oscillating at a high level [30] Supply - From December 29 to January 4, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2137 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 463,400 tons. Australian shipments were 1.9396 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons; Brazilian shipments were 792,500 tons, a decrease of 151,500 tons; non - mainstream ore shipments were 1.029 million tons, a decrease of 191,100 tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2.7564 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 155,000 tons [5] - As of December 31, the daily average output of iron ore concentrate from 186 mines across the country was 43,330 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 55.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08%. The mine concentrate inventory was 84,520 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 950 tons [5] - Global shipments are seasonally declining, with non - mainstream ore shipments, Australian ore shipped to China, Brazilian ore shipments, FMG and BHP shipments to China, RT shipments to China, and VALE shipments all showing declines. The freight rate index continues to decline. The arrival volume has slightly increased and remains at a high level, and the decline in domestic iron ore concentrate production has slowed down [36][40][44][48][52][56][59] Demand - In the week of December 31, the daily average molten iron production was 227,430 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,500 tons. The end of the steel mill production quota restrictions led to the resumption of production of some steel mill blast furnaces, and the rebound in molten iron production supports the ore price. The steel mill profit rate has slightly increased, and the imported ore price is oscillating in the range of $100 - 105 per ton [5] - Steel mill blast furnace profits have slightly increased, and blast furnaces in steel mills are gradually resuming production, with molten iron production slightly rebounding [65][71] Inventory - In this period, the imported ore inventory continued to increase, the number of ships at the port increased by 2 to 105, the port congestion slightly increased, the arrival volume remained at a high level, the port inventory continued to accumulate and remained at a high level, while the steel mill inventory slightly increased from a low level, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment still provides support [5] - The port throughput has slightly increased, the port inventory has continued to increase, the Australian ore inventory has continued to increase, the Brazilian ore inventory has slightly decreased, the coarse powder inventory remains at a high level, and the lump ore inventory has slightly decreased. Steel mill consumption has slightly increased, and the imported ore inventory is at a low level [78][82][89][97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose by 0.77%. Recently, the global iron ore shipping volume has decreased month-on-month but remains at a high level compared to the same period in the past three years. Steel mills' iron ore inventories are lower than the same period last year, and the restocking demand of some steel mills provides short-term support for the spot price of iron ore. Overall, it is expected that iron ore will show a weak and volatile trend in the medium term [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided content, only the headings "Futures Price", "Spread Analysis (Basis in dry tons)", and "Position Analysis (Net Position Analysis of Futures Seats)" are given [6][7] 3.2 Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China will strengthen macro - prudential management of real estate finance and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes balancing supply and demand and optimizing the structure of raw material industries such as steel and petrochemicals, and continuing to regulate crude steel production. The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the daily price limit range of coke and coking coal futures contracts to 10% starting from December 30, 2025, while keeping the trading margin level unchanged. The National Development and Reform Commission will strengthen coal supply and promote the construction of strategic reserves of coal - to - oil and gas [12] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of November 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,054 tons, a decrease of 77 tons from the previous month, and the import average price was $101.49 per ton, an increase of $0.94 per ton from the previous month. Australia's iron ore shipping volume was 6,184.9 tons, a decrease of 499.3 tons from the previous month, and Brazil's was 3,096.3 tons, an increase of 170.8 tons from the first half of the month [17][19] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - Not elaborated in the provided content, only the headings "Daily Average Hot Metal Output of 247 Steel Mills", "Profit Margin of 247 Steel Mills", and "Shanghai Terminal Rebar and Wire Rod Purchases" are given [20][26] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.61%. The steel mill profit margin was 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55%. The daily average hot metal output was 226.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.29 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 15,858.66 tons, a month - on - month increase of 346.03 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 315.06 tons, an increase of 1.61 tons. At 47 ports, the total inventory was 16,619.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 328.76 tons, an increase of 0.53 tons [29][30] 3.6 Future Outlook - Recently, the global iron ore shipping volume has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level compared to the same period in the past three years. Steel mills' iron ore inventories are lower than the same period last year, and the restocking demand of some steel mills provides short - term support for the spot price of iron ore. Overall, it is expected that iron ore will show a weak and volatile trend in the medium term [5][31] 3.7 Operation Strategies - Single - side: Be cautious and take short positions lightly when the price is high. If the price stands firm at the important resistance level of 800 yuan/ton in the future, it is recommended to exit and wait and see. Reduce positions before the holiday to avoid risks during the holiday. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [5][33]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about the iron ore market, with the trading logic of continuous decline in hot metal production and weak shock in the market [5]. - The global iron ore shipment increased slightly this period, with an increase in Australian and non - mainstream ores and a decrease in Brazilian ores. The arrival volume decreased slightly and remained at a medium - high level. Domestic ore production dropped to a low level, and the overall supply was relatively loose [6]. - The hot metal production continued to decline. With the deepening of the off - season of terminal demand, the number of steel mill overhauls increased, and there was still room for the hot metal production to decline. The support of steel mills' rigid demand procurement weakened [6]. - The port inventory increased slightly and remained at a medium - high level, while the steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level. The demand for winter storage replenishment had not started, and the overall inventory was relatively stable [5][6]. - The basis of 01 and 05 contracts fluctuated slightly, and the steel mill profitability increased slightly. The imported ore price fluctuated in the range of 100 - 105 US dollars per ton [5]. - The strategy is range - bound trading, and the iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [6]. Group 2: Price and Spread - The spot price fluctuated and declined [7]. - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder, as well as between PB powder and Macfarlane powder, fluctuated at a low level [13][17]. - The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated and declined, and the 05 basis declined slightly [21]. - The screw - ore ratio fluctuated and rebounded, and the ore - coke ratio fluctuated at a high level [28]. Group 3: Supply - From December 1st to December 7th, the global iron ore shipment was 3368.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.4 tons. The Australian shipment was 1967.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 147.0 tons; the Brazilian shipment was 675.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 254.2 tons; the non - mainstream ore shipment was 1174.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 91 tons [5]. - The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2480.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 218.8 tons [5]. - As of December 5th, the daily average output of iron concentrate powder of 186 domestic mines was 45.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 tons, the capacity utilization rate was 58.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%, and the mine concentrate powder inventory was 75.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 tons [5]. - The shipping price index declined slightly [51]. Group 4: Demand - In the week of December 5th, the daily average hot metal output was 232.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38 tons. With the deepening of the off - season of terminal demand, the number of steel mill overhauls increased, and the hot metal production still had room to decline [5]. - The steel mill blast furnace profit declined slightly [64]. Group 5: Inventory - The imported ore inventory increased slightly, the number of ships at the port decreased by 3 to 109, the port congestion decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate and remained at a medium - high level [5]. - The steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level, and the demand for winter storage replenishment had not started [5][6]. - The port throughput declined from a high level, and the port inventory increased slightly [77]. - The Australian ore inventory continued to increase, and the Brazilian ore inventory declined from a high level [81]. - The coarse powder inventory fluctuated at a high level, and the lump ore inventory increased slightly [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 fluctuated upward, closing at 792.0 yuan/ton, up 1.41%. Currently, the iron ore demand side is weak and the fundamentals are under pressure overall. However, the decline in coking coal prices has brought some room for growth in steel enterprise profits, alleviating the pressure on iron ore. Technically, the support at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range of the iron ore market is strong, providing some support for the ore price, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation trend of the short - term ore price. The subsequent situation depends on whether there are signs of continued improvement in steel enterprise profits [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook for the Future 3.1.1 Market Review - On November 18, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract fluctuated upward, opening at 786.5 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 792 yuan/ton, a low of 781 yuan/ton, and closing at 792 yuan/ton, up 1.41%. The main iron ore outer - disk quotes were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 0 - 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise, and the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract expanded after the golden cross the previous day [7][9] 3.1.2 Outlook for the Future - In terms of supply, the shipments from Australia and Brazil have declined, and the arrivals have fallen from a high. Considering the decline in the cumulative shipments in the past four weeks, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to continue to decline, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea last week has a limited short - term shipment volume and limited actual impact, but under the expectation of increased supply, the price of the far - month contract of iron ore may be suppressed. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output increased after six consecutive weeks of decline, currently at 235.88 tons. The increase in pig iron output last week was mainly due to the repair of steel production profits. The production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces have been significantly repaired in the past week, driving up the production enthusiasm of steel enterprises. The sustainability of profit repair needs further observation. For the five major steel products, both production and demand declined last week, and the decline in demand slowed down. Considering the cold weather, the demand for construction steel may continue to be suppressed. In terms of inventory, steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the available inventory days at a relatively low level of 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has now exceeded 150 million tons, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly in the future [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - According to Pengpai News, on November 18, the Chinese Foreign Ministry made solemn representations to Japan regarding the wrong remarks of Japanese Prime Minister Takamori Sanae on China - related issues. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in October 2025 was 71.997 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; the cumulative crude steel output from January to October was 817.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price difference between high - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, sample steel mills' tax - free pig iron cost, blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, weekly output of five major steel products, and steel mills' inventory of five major steel products. The data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][29][34]