新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-13 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2601合约报价贴水30元至升水150元/吨，均价升水60元，较昨日上涨105 元。现货价格区间为102870-103600元/吨。早盘期铜主力呈现窄幅震荡，开盘自103200元上行至103600元后回落， 午后围绕102900元波动，尾盘收于103400元。隔月Contango价差在310-140元之间，当月进口亏损约1020-1080元。 市场方面，早间平水铜报价贴水50至升水50元，好铜金川大板因货紧报升水150元，祥光等品牌成交于升水50-70 元。午后下游还盘压力增加，部分品牌报价下调，鲁方、祥光以平水至升水20元成交，JCC成交于升水30-50元。 当下临近交割，预计升水格局延续，但进一步上行受限于下游接货意愿及仓单申报情况。若月差维持当前水平， 现货升水或呈高位震荡。 重要资讯汇总： 地缘方面，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文称，任何与伊朗进行商业往来的国家，其与美国的所有商业往来都将 面临25%的关税。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐表示，伊朗做好了应对一切可能的准备，希望美国作出"智慧的选择"。如 果美国 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 31 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 沪铜探底回升，总持仓下降 17019 手，受贵金属抛售情绪影响铜价一度跌到 9.6 万，但铜市做多情绪仍在，下跌势头在日内止住。现货铜跌 3120 至 97620，现货 贴水缩窄 90 至 240，年末将至现货成交冷清。日内现货铜进口亏 1489，出口窗口 趋于打开，预计后续国内社库累库速度将放缓。整体来看，基本面中期向好短期 现货拖累，当 ...

Core Viewpoint - LME copper futures prices have significantly increased, recovering some losses from the previous week, driven by supply concerns from major producers like Codelco [1] Group 1: LME Copper Futures Performance - On October 13, LME copper futures opened at $10,490 per ton and reached a current price of $10,577.5 per ton, marking a 1.96% increase [1] - The intraday trading saw a high of $10,688 per ton and a low of $10,480 per ton [1] - On October 10, LME copper futures closed at $10,374 per ton, down 3.73% from the previous trading session [1] Group 2: Market Data and Trends - As of October 10, the electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 8.0, with an import loss of -1,012.46 yuan per ton, improving from -1,166.87 yuan per ton the previous day [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper warehouse receipts of 29,964 tons, an increase of 261 tons from the previous trading day [1] - LME registered copper warehouse receipts totaled 131,050 tons, with 8,350 tons canceled, a decrease of 75 tons, while total copper inventory stood at 139,400 tons, also down by 75 tons [1] Group 3: Supply Concerns - Analysts from ANZ Bank indicated ongoing supply-side issues, particularly highlighting concerns from Codelco regarding its El Teniente mine operating below capacity in the coming months [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, copper prices will mainly fluctuate. The escalation of Sino - US trade issues has made macro factors the short - term trading mainline, and copper prices have significantly corrected after the risk preference decreased. In the medium - to - long - term, the fundamental shortage logic will still push up the center of copper prices. The strategy is to buy on dips [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Part 01: Weekly Review - **Weekly Data**: - Copper concentrate spot TC increased from - 408 to - 403.6 dollars/ton, a 1.08% increase. The market was quiet during the National Day holiday, and attention should be paid to the result of the November long - term contract negotiation [7]. - The refined - scrap spread rose from 2085 to 3187 yuan/ton, a 52.81% increase. After the holiday, copper prices soared, but downstream procurement was weak, leading to a significant increase in the spread [7]. - The southern crude copper processing fee increased from 800 to 1000 yuan/ton, a 25% increase. Some enterprises switched to anode plate production, supporting the processing fee [7]. - The operating rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and wire and cable all declined due to the holiday and high copper prices after the holiday [7]. - Copper concentrate port inventory available days increased from 5.5 to 5.9 days, a 7.05% increase. Global visible inventory increased, mainly from COMEX and domestic inventory, while LME inventory decreased [7]. - Electrolytic copper social inventory, bonded area inventory, and the sum of the two all increased. SHFE copper inventory increased by 344.36%, LME copper inventory decreased by 0.77%, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 3.81%. The global total inventory increased slightly by 0.44% [7]. - Smelting comprehensive profit (spot) increased from - 3842 to - 3176 yuan/ton, a 17.35% increase; smelting comprehensive profit (long - term contract) increased from - 523 to 139 yuan/ton, a 126.60% increase. Import profit decreased from - 652 to - 705 yuan/ton, an 8.23% decrease [7]. - **Comprehensive Logic**: The escalation of Sino - US trade friction due to Trump's tariff remarks initially lowered market risk preference, but then the market sentiment recovered. Fundamentally, the tightness of copper mines supports copper prices. In the short - term, copper prices will fluctuate, and in the long - term, the shortage logic will push up copper prices [9]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips for unilateral trading [9]. - **Variables**: Trump's tariff policy escalation, the US economic downturn exceeding expectations, changes in interest - rate cut expectations, and weakening demand [9]. 3.2 Part 02: Copper Industry Chain Analysis - **Price, Spread, Cost, and Profit**: - Data on SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, Shanghai copper price difference, and other price - related indicators are presented, as well as information on electrolytic copper import price spreads, industry cost - profit indicators such as electrolytic copper comprehensive profit and import profit [11][16][18]. - **Supply and Demand**: - **Supply**: Data on copper concentrate production in Chile and Peru, copper concentrate imports, scrap copper imports, crude copper imports, electrolytic copper production, and imports are provided [25][27][28]. - **Demand**: - **Copper Rod - Cable**: Operating rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, and wire and cable are shown, along with data on copper rod raw material inventory and finished product inventory ratio [30]. - **Cable Terminal - Power Grid**: Data on cumulative and monthly power grid and power source investment completion amounts are presented [32][34]. - **Copper Tube - Air Conditioner**: Data on the operating rate of copper tubes, raw material inventory ratio, finished product inventory, and household air - conditioner production, domestic sales, and exports are provided [41]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: Data on the operating rate, raw material inventory, and raw material inventory ratio of copper plate and strip are presented [43][45][47]. - **Terminal - Automobile**: Data on monthly automobile and new - energy vehicle production and sales are provided [49][50]. - **Brass Rod - Real Estate**: Data on the operating rate of brass rods, 30 - city commercial housing transaction area, and housing completion area are presented [53][54]. - **Inventory**: Data on China's electrolytic copper social inventory, SHFE copper inventory, COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, LME electrolytic copper inventory, and global refined copper inventory are provided [57]. 3.3 Part 03: Capital Position - **External Market Position**: - CFTC non - commercial net long position shows a strengthening trend recently, with the non - commercial long - position ratio at 32% [67]. - LME investment fund net long position is 36768.23 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 1814.84 lots [67].

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry is experiencing a dichotomy in production and demand, with some companies maintaining high production levels while others face significant slowdowns due to high copper prices and reduced downstream orders [4][28][34]. Group 1: Production Dynamics - A copper rod company in Jiangxi has been operating at full capacity to meet order demands, producing over 1,000 tons of recycled copper raw materials before the National Day holiday [2][5]. - According to Mysteel's survey, 19 out of 61 surveyed copper rod companies chose to continue production during the holiday, indicating strong demand in certain segments [2][4]. - In contrast, some companies, particularly in the refined copper rod sector, have extended their holiday breaks due to high inventory levels and slow order pickups, with an average holiday duration of 4.05 days in 2025 compared to 3.95 days in 2023 [3][4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The copper price surged due to supply disruptions from the Grasberg copper mine incident, leading to a cautious approach among downstream buyers [4][34]. - The average copper price in 2025 has been higher than in 2024, yet end-user orders have not returned to peak levels, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [4][34]. - High copper prices have resulted in increased production costs for refined copper rod companies, with some reporting a 30% decrease in orders compared to the previous year [28][33]. Group 3: Inventory Management - Companies are adopting varied inventory strategies, with 30% of firms maintaining current stock levels while another 30% are delaying production due to unclear policies and weak demand [7][28]. - The need for careful inventory management is emphasized, as companies must balance production with financial pressures and market uncertainties [7][34]. - Some companies are facing significant financial strain due to high inventory levels, with one firm reporting a stock of over 2,000 tons, double the normal level, leading to increased financial costs [26][33]. Group 4: Demand for Lithium Battery Copper Foil - The demand for lithium battery copper foil has surged, with one company reporting a 40% increase in urgent orders compared to the previous year [14][20]. - During the National Day holiday, many copper foil companies maintained over 80% operating rates, significantly higher than the typical 50% [22]. - The growth in the lithium battery sector is driving production decisions, with companies adjusting their output to meet urgent customer demands [16][20]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The copper market is expected to face a supply surplus in 2025, transitioning to a shortage in 2026, primarily due to tightening supply conditions [37][40]. - The Chinese government has set clear growth targets for the recycled metals sector, which may influence production strategies in the coming years [40][41]. - Analysts predict that while short-term price fluctuations may occur, the long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive due to structural demand growth in sectors like renewable energy and electric vehicles [34][41].

Group 1: Copper Price Surge - The global copper price has significantly increased due to the suspension of production at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine, with LME copper closing at $10,320 per ton on September 24, marking a 3.46% rise [4][5] - On September 25, the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze market reached 82,500 yuan per ton, up 3.06% from the previous day, an increase of 2,450 yuan [4][5] - The Grasberg mine, one of the largest copper mines globally, has a copper reserve of 13.99 million tons and has lowered its third-quarter sales guidance for copper and gold by 4% and 6%, respectively [5][6] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the impact of the Grasberg incident is primarily psychological for the market, with minimal direct effects on domestic copper concentrate supply [3][6] - The incident is expected to lead to a slight reduction in global metal supply, with estimates of a decrease of about 5,000 tons in 2025 and 22,000 tons in 2026, which is a small fraction of the expected consumption [6][7] - Despite the recent surge, some market participants believe that copper prices may correct downward as demand weakens after the initial excitement fades [7] Group 3: Company Performance and Outlook - Domestic copper companies, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining, have shown strong stock performance, with Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price rising by 9.90% to 13.87 yuan [7][8] - Luoyang Molybdenum is projected to produce 650,200 tons of copper in 2024, a 55% increase year-on-year, positioning it among the top copper producers globally [8][9] - The company anticipates a stable market as U.S. import tariffs on copper products take effect, which may alleviate supply tensions outside the U.S. [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Grasberg Block Cave mud collapse accident leads to production suspension and sales volume reduction, affecting copper market supply and prices [1][3] - Global copper concentrate balance table is expected to be further adjusted, and the supply loss rate may exceed 5% in 2025 [5] - Focus on the capital's allocation interest in the copper market and the actual consumption strength [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event - On the evening of September 24, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. declared force majeure on the mud collapse accident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia, and lowered the copper and gold sales volume expectations for the fourth quarter of this year and the whole of next year. The LME copper price rose sharply before the night session opened, hitting a new high of $10,320/ton in closing price this year; the Shanghai copper weighted index increased by more than 60,000 lots, and the weighted index rose to a maximum of 82,880 points [1] Importance of the Mine - The accident occurred on September 8, with a large amount of mud gushing out, and the mining area is basically in a state of suspension. The accident investigation is expected to be completed by the end of the year. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia is the world's second-largest copper concentrate mine. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) currently holds 48.8% of the shares, and the Indonesian company holds 51.2% (still actively committed to increasing the equity ratio). The annual production capacity of the mine is 800,000 tons. During the epidemic, it completed the transformation from an open-pit mine to underground mining. In 2024, the copper sales volume of the mine increased to about 760,000 tons, accounting for about 40% of FCX's annual output. According to the 22.98 million tons of copper concentrate production of the International Copper Study Group in 2024, it accounts for about 3.3% [1] Impact of the Accident on the Mine's Sales Volume - In June 2023, Indonesia banned the export of copper concentrate unless the construction of smelter capacity is fulfilled to obtain a phased export quota. The project of building a smelter for the Grasberg copper mine by FCX has been tortuous. The commissioning process of the Manyar smelter in 2024 was repeatedly delayed, and it was commissioned in May 2025 and produced in July (the plant is expected to produce 480,000 tons of cathode copper annually, with a concentrate processing capacity of 1.7 million tons); the Gresik smelter (jointly owned with Mitsubishi, expected to consume 40% of the copper concentrate from Grasberg and with an annual output of 342,000 tons) was shut down due to an oxygen production accident in summer. The smelting progress cannot consume the copper concentrate. After the approval of Freeport's copper concentrate export activities by the Indonesian government expired in 2024, as of the first quarter of this year, it had accumulated a large amount of concentrate inventory (it was rumored to be close to 400,000 tons at the beginning of the year), which had affected the production of the Grasberg copper mine. The copper production of the mine in the first half of the year was only 297,000 tons [2] - In 2025, Freeport's production and sales activities in Indonesia were not smooth. In 2024, the company's overall copper business in Indonesia sold 183.7 million pounds (about 830,000 tons). In 2025, it was initially expected to sell 162.5 million pounds (about 737,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons compared with last year), but only 44.3 million pounds (about 200,000 tons) were completed in the first half of the year (the pace accelerated in the third quarter). The company had previously lowered this year's expectation to 150 million pounds (about 680,000 tons) [2] - In March 2025, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy issued a six-month copper concentrate export license to Freeport Indonesia (quota of about 1.27 million tons, about 300,000 - 350,000 tons), valid until September 16, 2025. As of mid-August, the company stated that it had exported about 65% of the quota and expected to use 90% of it before the expiration [3] - After the accident, FCX officially lowered the production guidance of the Grasberg copper mine. Although a small mining area that was not affected will resume production in mid - fourth quarter, Freeport Indonesia as a whole cannot complete the original sales target of 44.5 million pounds, about 200,000 tons, in the fourth quarter. At the same time, the affected mining area will be restarted in stages in 2026. The copper production target of Freeport Indonesia in 2026 will be directly reduced from 170 million pounds to 110 million pounds (from 770,000 tons to 498,000 tons), a reduction of 35%. The actual copper production of Freeport Indonesia this year may only be at the level of about 500,000 tons. The operation volume of Freeport Indonesia may not return to the pre - accident level until 2027 [3] - Since Freeport Indonesia has basically completed the approval volume of copper concentrate exports in 2025, it has basically entered a gap period for external spot exports again. The domestic copper concentrate import TC quotation has turned weak again since September. In terms of production, the mine is expected to have an obvious resupply in the late first quarter of next year or even in the second half of the year [3] Global Copper Concentrate Balance Table - In 2025, the severity of the accidents in global large mines is very significant. In the second quarter, the Kakula underground mine jointly operated by Ivanhoe and Zijin in the Democratic Republic of the Congo significantly lowered its production increase target for 2025 due to mine earthquakes or design reasons. In the third quarter, the operation of El Teniente under Codelco in Chile was also affected by an earthquake casualty accident, and it is expected to lose 20,000 - 30,000 tons of copper. The supply loss rate of copper concentrate this year may exceed 5% due to the force majeure of Freeport Indonesia [5] - In April 2025, the ICSG initially believed that the global copper concentrate increment this year could reach 2.3%, an increase of nearly 500,000 tons. Recently, the agency will update the copper concentrate expectation again and is likely to lower it to the level of 100,000 tons. The increment in 2026 will also be affected by this accident and be correspondingly adjusted. Therefore, the specific production resupply rhythm of the 330,000 - ton Cobre Panama copper mine of First Quantum in Panama becomes the key. At the same time, the annual processing fee negotiation in 2026 will fall into a passive situation again [5] Price Impact - The copper price rose sharply at night, fully digesting the short - term supply - side event. Technically, LME copper has the potential to continue to break through the upward pattern, but it is recommended to focus on the capital's allocation interest in the copper market. The short - term position of Shanghai copper weighted index increased sharply, but the total position is not significant compared with the previous performance when the price broke through the 80,000 mark. The copper market is still vigilant about the fluctuations of macro - economic indicators and sensitive to the actual consumption strength [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper Market - **Current Price**: LME copper has recently pulled back below $10,000/t after reaching approximately $10,200/t [1][3] Core Insights - **Unexpected Strength**: Copper prices have been stronger than anticipated due to: - Continued strong US copper imports despite expectations of normalization [3] - An open import arbitrage in China through August, with rising physical premiums [3] - **Demand Weakness Signs**: - Sequential slowdown in China's end-use indicators has been noted [4] - Physical markers indicate weakness, with the SMM copper arbitrage turning negative and the Yangshan premium starting to decline [4][12] - US imports are normalizing, which may increase availability for non-US markets [4][12] Supply Dynamics - **Tightening Supply**: - Supply disruptions are accelerating, with Woodmac reporting 880 kt of disruptions year-to-date, equating to 3.7% of supply [5] - Freeport's temporary halt at Grasberg is contributing to supply concerns, with the mine operating at only 30% capacity [5] Market Outlook - **Price Expectations**: - A modest price downside is expected into year-end, but supportive macro conditions may present buying opportunities [6] - The 2026 balance for copper still appears tight, warranting close monitoring of China's demand signals [6] Additional Insights - **US Import Trends**: - US copper imports have normalized to approximately 15 kt/week, down from 50-60 kt/week [12] - The first copper delivery to a US LME warehouse since December 2023 indicates stockpiled metal is struggling to find a market [12] - **Positioning**: - Current positioning in the LME does not appear overstretched, which may provide some offset against price declines [12][28] Important Data Points - **Supply Disruptions**: 880 kt of disruptions reported, 3.7% of total supply [5] - **US Import Normalization**: Approximately 15 kt/week [12] - **Copper Price Fluctuations**: Recent high of ~$10,200/t, currently below $10,000/t [1][3] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the copper market, highlighting both the current state and future outlook.

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract closing up 0.73% at 79,060 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still global uncertainties. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons. The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025 [3][11]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情回顾 - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, with the main contract closing up 0.73% at 79,060 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still global uncertainties. Domestically, consumption entered the off - season with general downstream consumption willingness. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons with little change last week, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons [3]. 基本面（库存结构） - PMI: No specific content provided [7][9]. - Supply - demand balance: The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and in surplus in 2025. A detailed China annual supply - demand balance table from 2018 - 2024 is provided [11][14]. - Inventory: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 市场结构 - Processing fee: The processing fee is at a low level [22]. - CFTC position: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out [24]. - Spot - futures price difference: No specific content provided [27]. - Import profit: No specific content provided [30]. - Warehouse receipt: No specific content provided [21].

Core Viewpoint - The Chief Financial Officer of Marubeni stated that the significant fluctuations in copper prices in the United States have not impacted the company's copper business [1] Group 1 - The company has maintained stability in its copper operations despite market volatility [1]