美元霸权如何让美国"惯坏"？世界混乱背后的经济真相 美国作为世界强国，行事作风越来越无所顾忌，这背后有一个关键因素被很多人忽视了——美元的特殊 地位。世界各国的贸易、外汇储备都离不开美元，美国国债成为全球资金避风港，这种依赖关系让美国 拥有了一种"嚣张的特权"。就像被惯坏的孩子一样，美国享受着由他国埋单的挥霍，却不必承担相应后 果。 美国维持美元霸权的决心如此坚定，甚至不惜发动战争。当伊拉克和利比亚宣布不再使用美元作为石油 贸易结算货币时，美国便以各种借口对这两个国家采取了军事行动。历史经验表明，任何挑战美元霸权 的行为都可能招致美国的强力回应。 美元霸权支撑了美国的军事霸权。美国在全球拥有近400个海外军事基地，控制着140多个国家和地区的 战略要地。维持如此庞大的军事存在需要巨额资金支持，而美元的特殊地位使美国能够通过发行国债等 方式廉价获取资金。军工复合体则通过不断挑动地区冲突和战争，谋取巨额经济利益。 美元霸权成为美国维持全球主导地位的核心工具，使美国能够通过货币政策转嫁国内危机，收割世界财 富。当美国经济出现问题，美联储可以通过大量印钞来刺激经济，而由此产生的通胀压力则会通过美元 的国际循环转嫁给其 ...

各位嘉宾，大家上午好！首先要感谢证券日报的邀请，参加这个盛会。 我看了前面各位的发言都是金融界的，都从宏观的角度来谈这个问题。证券市场跟财政是密切相关的，比如说政府的债券就是证券市场底层的资产。我们国 家证券市场当前面临的一个很大的问题，就是政府债券的流动性太弱了，地方政府的债券基本是银行机构持有，持有基本不动。国债的流动性实际上也偏 低，国债收益率曲线的定价功能偏弱。 再从人民币国际化的角度来看，我们国家向全球供应的无风险资产，就是人民币资产，特别是国债是不够的。过去觉得国债就是弥补财政赤字的一个手段， 跟人民币国际化好像八竿子打不着，这是一个天大的误解。其实资本市场一个重要的风向标就是政府证券的交易，尤其是国债。大家看美国资本市场，看美 国的货币政策，都在瞄准美债短期、长期的交易价格的变化。 著名的经济金融学家黄达先生曾经说过，说财政和金融是"连裆裤"。在改革开放初期，80年代的时候就讲了这个话，我认为他讲的这个话是很有前瞻性的。 拿到今天来讲，其实财政和金融依然是"连裆裤"。但是我们现在看这条"连裆裤"的时候，主要是看两个裤脚。往下面看，看两个裤腿和裤角都是分开的，它 们没有什么关系，从整体去看，其实它 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the undervaluation of the RMB in terms of real purchasing power and highlights the dominance of the RMB in international physical trade, despite its limited role in global settlement [1][2]. Group 1: RMB and International Trade - The RMB has become the primary currency in international physical trade, but this trade only accounts for 5% of international settlements, indicating that financial transactions are more significant [2]. - The article suggests that the U.S. has faced challenges due to its financial practices, which have led to a decline in its industrial capabilities and a reliance on foreign manufacturing [3][4]. Group 2: U.S. Financial Practices - The U.S. has historically used financial strategies, such as aggressive interest rate hikes, to maintain its economic dominance, which has adversely affected its manufacturing sector [8]. - The article argues that the U.S. financial system is unsustainable, as it relies on continuous global financial crises to sustain high growth rates [12][14]. Group 3: RMB Internationalization - The offshore RMB market has remained stable, fluctuating between 1.5 to 2 trillion, while foreign reserves have consistently been around 3 trillion, raising questions about the management of RMB internationalization [19]. - The article posits that if desired, foreign reserves could exceed 6 trillion, and increasing the offshore RMB scale to around 10 trillion is a conservative estimate [20]. Group 4: Manufacturing Focus - The article emphasizes that the primary goal should be to dominate global manufacturing, suggesting that the current dollar dominance is beneficial for this strategy [24]. - It highlights that the approach is not about immediate victories but rather about strategically undermining foreign manufacturing at the right moment [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the US dollar's dominance in global trade and the rise of "de-dollarization" as countries seek alternatives to reduce reliance on the dollar [4][12]. Group 1: Historical Context - The US dollar became the world's dominant currency after World War II, backed by gold under the Bretton Woods system [1]. - The dollar's link to oil transactions solidified its status, as oil sales were required to be conducted in dollars, creating a strong dependency on the currency [3]. Group 2: Global Trends in De-dollarization - Countries in South America, such as Brazil and Argentina, are increasingly opting for local currencies in trade with China, reducing the need for dollar transactions [6][9]. - European countries, including France, have begun using the yuan for energy transactions, indicating a shift away from dollar reliance [7][9]. - ASEAN nations are also promoting local currency settlements, which could significantly reduce costs and risks associated with dollar transactions [10]. Group 3: Middle East Dynamics - The traditional "petrodollar" system is under threat as countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE explore transactions in currencies other than the dollar, particularly with China [10][12]. - The BRICS nations are leading the charge in establishing alternative payment systems independent of US control, with over half of their trade now conducted in local currencies [12]. Group 4: Economic Implications for the US - The US national debt has reached approximately $37 trillion, with significant annual interest payments that exceed the GDP of many countries [12][15]. - The trend of countries reducing their holdings of US debt in favor of gold or other assets poses a risk to the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [12][13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - While the yuan's share in global payments is currently low, the trend towards de-dollarization suggests a gradual shift towards a more diversified international monetary system [13]. - The ongoing competition for currency dominance will impact global trade dynamics and economic security for nations, potentially leading to a more equitable financial landscape [15].

Group 1 - The book "The Absurdity and Wisdom of Taxes: Stories from Tax History" by economists Michael Keen and Joel Slemrod presents engaging stories from tax history while introducing various academic findings related to taxation [1] - Governments throughout history have utilized various forms of taxation, including labor as a form of tax, with examples such as forced labor for monumental constructions like the Great Wall and pyramids [2] - Governments often resort to unconventional methods to finance expenditures, such as issuing currency to gain the difference between its value and production cost, known as "seigniorage" [3] Group 2 - Unique tax types have been implemented by governments to address social issues, such as Peter the Great's beard tax aimed at modernizing Russian nobility [4] - Historical tax systems often favored the wealthy, with examples like the tax exemptions for the nobility in France under Louis XIV, leading to social unrest and contributing to the French Revolution [5] - In multi-ethnic states, tax policies have sometimes discriminated against certain religious groups, with examples of special taxes imposed on Jews in Christian countries [6] Group 3 - The economic concept of tax incidence highlights that the legal obligation to pay taxes may differ from who ultimately bears the tax burden, as seen in the case of a special tax on households employing maids in 1785 England [7] - Policymakers sometimes fail to implement effective measures to ensure that tax burdens are passed on to consumers, leading to ineffective tax policies [8] - Taxpayer responses to taxation can lead to reduced economic activity, resulting in "deadweight loss," which represents a loss of societal welfare [9] Group 4 - The design of tax systems can lead to unintended consequences, such as the historical port and lighthouse fees based on ship dimensions rather than actual draft depth, resulting in unsafe vessel designs [10] - Tax incentives for small businesses can create disincentives for growth, leading to inefficiencies in resource allocation [11] - Tax evasion remains a significant issue, with estimates indicating that a substantial portion of tax liabilities goes unpaid, particularly in developing countries [12] Group 5 - Large corporations, especially multinational companies, are often scrutinized for tax avoidance strategies, but they also facilitate tax compliance for governments due to their structured payroll systems [13] - The book also discusses optimal tax design, international tax competition, and government debt, providing a comprehensive overview of tax economics [13]

Group 1 - In 2021, China implemented tax cuts and fee reductions amounting to approximately 1.1 trillion yuan, with new policies planned for 2022 to further stimulate investment and improve corporate profitability [1] - The significance of tax cuts and fee reductions lies in enhancing the investment enthusiasm of enterprises, optimizing investment structure, and alleviating economic downward pressure [1] - The large-scale tax cuts will lead to a decrease in fiscal revenue, highlighting the need for balance in fiscal income and expenditure, which can be addressed by utilizing special remittances from state-owned financial institutions [1] Group 2 - The practice of central banks remitting profits to the government is common among major economies, with examples including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which have clear regulations regarding profit remittance [2] - The essence of central bank profit remittance is akin to paying a form of tax on the monopoly of currency issuance, known as seigniorage, which has historically been a significant source of government revenue [2]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in Hong Kong marks a significant shift towards the regulation and legitimization of stablecoins, establishing high entry barriers for participants and aiming to enhance Hong Kong's role in the global monetary system [2][7]. Group 1: Purpose of Stablecoins - The push for stablecoins in Hong Kong serves two main purposes: to defend against the dominance of the US dollar and to seek greater influence in the future global monetary system [3]. - Stablecoins are essentially digital currencies that maintain price stability, often pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar, providing a means for individuals to hedge against local currency depreciation [4][5]. Group 2: Mechanism and Impact - Stablecoins are seen as tools for collecting seigniorage, with over 95% of mainstream stablecoins pegged to the US dollar, allowing capital to bypass local capital controls and traditional banking processes [6]. - The issuance of stablecoins tied to local currencies is a strategy employed by various economies to reduce reliance on the US dollar and promote a multipolar currency system [6][7]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The "Stablecoin Ordinance" aims to establish a regulatory framework that ensures compliance and protects investors, addressing risks exposed by previous industry failures [8]. - The ordinance requires stablecoin issuers to have a physical presence in Hong Kong, maintain sufficient reserves, and undergo annual audits, thereby enhancing market order and reducing risks for investors [8][9]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The success of Real World Assets (RWA) tokenization relies on the quality of underlying assets, emphasizing that RWA should not be viewed as a solution for illiquid or low-quality assets [9]. - The initiative represents a strategic move by Hong Kong to assert its influence in the global financial landscape while ensuring a secure environment for digital finance [9].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation, effective from August 1, 2025, marks a significant shift from a chaotic environment to a structured legal framework, allowing only robust and compliant companies to issue stablecoins, while excluding individuals and non-compliant entities [1][6] Group 1: Purpose of Stablecoin Regulation - The introduction of stablecoins in Hong Kong serves two main purposes: to defend against the dominance of the US dollar and to seek greater influence in the global monetary system [1][4] - Stablecoins are seen as tools to mitigate the risks of local currency depreciation, especially in countries with severe currency devaluation [2][4] Group 2: Advantages of Stablecoins - Stablecoins provide significant advantages in cross-border payments and real-time settlements compared to traditional banking systems, reducing costs and increasing transaction efficiency [3][4] - The dominance of US dollar-pegged stablecoins in global transactions allows the US to benefit from substantial "seigniorage" while challenging other nations' monetary sovereignty [4][5] Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The new regulation establishes a licensing mechanism with high entry barriers, ensuring that only well-capitalized and compliant entities can issue stablecoins, thereby enhancing market order and protecting investors [6][8] - The regulation mandates that all stablecoin issuers must have a physical presence in Hong Kong, maintain adequate reserves, and undergo annual audits to ensure redemption capabilities [6][8] Group 4: Future Implications - The regulation aims to position Hong Kong as a leader in digital asset regulation, enhancing its financial reputation while addressing past industry issues such as lack of transparency and risk management [6][8] - The successful implementation of the regulation could lead to the integration of real-world assets (RWA) into the digital finance ecosystem, provided that the underlying assets are of high quality and compliant [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Renminbi (RMB) to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in the context of a changing global trade and financial environment, particularly in the emerging G2 world [2][9]. Historical Context - Previous currencies like the Japanese Yen and Euro had opportunities to challenge the dollar but ultimately failed due to various economic and political factors [3][5][6]. - The Yen appreciated significantly from 1985 to 1989, but this did not lead to its status as a global reserve currency, highlighting that currency strength does not guarantee international acceptance [4][5]. - The Euro faced challenges from its inception, including the Eurozone debt crisis, which undermined its credibility as a reserve currency [6][10]. Characteristics of Global Reserve Currencies - A global reserve currency typically requires military power to ensure its dominance, as seen historically with currencies from Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK [7]. - The US dollar's status is supported by a favorable external environment post-World War II, characterized by globalization and reduced geopolitical conflicts [8]. - The concept of "seigniorage" allows the issuer of a reserve currency to benefit from printing money, but this is not an unlimited power, as evidenced by the US's current debt situation [8][11]. Current Situation of the Renminbi - The global interest in the RMB is increasing, driven by concerns over the US's weaponization of the dollar and the need for alternative financial systems [10][13]. - The RMB's role as a transaction currency is growing, but it still lacks the characteristics necessary for it to be a long-term reserve currency, such as liquidity and full convertibility [10][14]. - The RMB's internationalization is influenced by the relative decline of trust in the US and the rise of China's economic influence [13][14]. Future Outlook - The potential for the RMB to challenge the dollar's dominance is contingent on several factors, including the establishment of a robust RMB settlement network and the resolution of existing economic and policy risks [10][14]. - The transition to a multi-currency world may take time, as the dollar's dominance is deeply entrenched [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical and current challenges faced by currencies like the Ruble, Yen, Euro, and the potential for the Renminbi to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system [1][2][3][4][5][6][9][10]. Group 1: Historical Context of Currency Competition - The Ruble was once considered a competitor to the dollar until the economic weaknesses of the Soviet Union became apparent [1]. - The Plaza Accord in 1985 led to a rapid appreciation of the Yen, which contributed to Japan's asset bubble, but did not result in the Yen becoming a major global reserve currency [2][3]. - The Euro has faced significant challenges since its inception, particularly during the Eurozone debt crisis, which highlighted the lack of a unified fiscal policy among member states [3][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of Global Reserve Currencies - A global reserve currency typically requires military power to ensure its dominance, as seen with historical currencies of Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK [5]. - The US has maintained its position as the global reserve currency due to its military spending and the favorable external environment post-World War II [5][6]. Group 3: Current and Future Prospects for the Renminbi - The increasing global attention on the Renminbi is partly due to the erosion of trust in the US dollar under Trump's administration, leading to a search for alternative reserve currencies [6][9]. - The Renminbi's potential as a reserve currency is hindered by its limited circulation and the lack of liquid Renminbi-denominated assets [7][9]. - For the Renminbi to challenge the dollar, it must establish a settlement network, particularly in Asia, and build trust in its stability and convertibility [10].