本文来自微信公众号：局外人的视界，作者：卡夫卡不忙了，原文标题：《聊聊汇率》，题图来自：视 觉中国 论起真实购买力，RMB肯定是被远远低估了。 如今国际实物贸易里，RMB已经是第一货币了，很可惜，实物贸易在国际结算里占比也就5%，终究是 金融玩法才是来回捯饬的大头。 我们一直都说摸着石头过河，美帝这个老石头，都快被盘包浆了。好好的全球第一工业王国搞成现在这 样，连军工都不能自主可控，你还真不能怪别人。 强如美帝，没有谁能从外部害了它，把它拖到今天这个尴尬地步的就是该死的金融。 看起来搞新殖民模式，通过美元来向全球征收铸币税美滋滋，但实际上，想要保证美元全球流通就必须 先让全世界有美元。 美帝如果还是全球最大工业国，常年保持贸易顺差，请问谁手上有美元呢？ 人家都没有美元了，自然不会用美元，好容易弄到点美元，那不得跟宝贝一样收藏起来，那美元也就没 办法成为全球储备货币了。 所以你看，美国的贸易顺差跟黄金美元崩盘几乎是同一时间发生的。 现在美帝瞄准东大打贸易战，40年前美帝瞄准日本打贸易战，民间仇恨到华裔被认为日本人在酒馆活活 打死，凶手竟然还能在民意保护下只判了三年缓刑（陈果仁事件）。 所以你看，老美一贯就是这么 ...

钱这东西，说白了就是一张纸，或者手机里一串数字。凭什么美国的"纸"就比别人的金贵，全世界做生意都得用它？这事儿，得从咱们爷爷辈说起了。 二战打完，全世界都打烂了，就美国本土没遭罪，还攒了一大笔黄金。于是，老美振臂一呼，说："兄弟们，以后大家就用我的美元吧，我保证，你们随时 能拿着35美元来我这换一盎司黄金。"大家一听，觉得靠谱，美元就这么当上了世界货币的老大。这就是所谓的布雷顿森林体系。 可好景不長，美国后来打越南战争，钱花得如流水，黄金也撑不住了。到了1971年，尼克松总统直接耍了个赖，说美元和黄金脱钩了，不陪你们玩了。按理 说，这信用就破产了，美元该完蛋了吧？ 并没有。美国又拉着中东那帮卖石油的土豪们搞了个约定：以后石油买卖，必须用美元结算。你想想，谁家过日子不需要石油？工业要发展，汽车要跑路， 都离不开这"工业的血液"。这么一来，美元又跟石油这个硬通货捆绑在了一起，地位反而更稳了。这就是美元霸权的第二根支柱。 这个体系让美国人过上了啥日子呢？这么说吧，就像你家开了个印刷厂，印出来的纸全世界都认，都能换回实打实的商品。缺钱了怎么办？开动印钞机就行 了。 问题就出在这。美国一遇到经济问题，最简单粗暴的办法就 ...

Group 1 - The book "The Absurdity and Wisdom of Taxes: Stories from Tax History" by economists Michael Keen and Joel Slemrod presents engaging stories from tax history while introducing various academic findings related to taxation [1] - Governments throughout history have utilized various forms of taxation, including labor as a form of tax, with examples such as forced labor for monumental constructions like the Great Wall and pyramids [2] - Governments often resort to unconventional methods to finance expenditures, such as issuing currency to gain the difference between its value and production cost, known as "seigniorage" [3] Group 2 - Unique tax types have been implemented by governments to address social issues, such as Peter the Great's beard tax aimed at modernizing Russian nobility [4] - Historical tax systems often favored the wealthy, with examples like the tax exemptions for the nobility in France under Louis XIV, leading to social unrest and contributing to the French Revolution [5] - In multi-ethnic states, tax policies have sometimes discriminated against certain religious groups, with examples of special taxes imposed on Jews in Christian countries [6] Group 3 - The economic concept of tax incidence highlights that the legal obligation to pay taxes may differ from who ultimately bears the tax burden, as seen in the case of a special tax on households employing maids in 1785 England [7] - Policymakers sometimes fail to implement effective measures to ensure that tax burdens are passed on to consumers, leading to ineffective tax policies [8] - Taxpayer responses to taxation can lead to reduced economic activity, resulting in "deadweight loss," which represents a loss of societal welfare [9] Group 4 - The design of tax systems can lead to unintended consequences, such as the historical port and lighthouse fees based on ship dimensions rather than actual draft depth, resulting in unsafe vessel designs [10] - Tax incentives for small businesses can create disincentives for growth, leading to inefficiencies in resource allocation [11] - Tax evasion remains a significant issue, with estimates indicating that a substantial portion of tax liabilities goes unpaid, particularly in developing countries [12] Group 5 - Large corporations, especially multinational companies, are often scrutinized for tax avoidance strategies, but they also facilitate tax compliance for governments due to their structured payroll systems [13] - The book also discusses optimal tax design, international tax competition, and government debt, providing a comprehensive overview of tax economics [13]

Group 1 - In 2021, China implemented tax cuts and fee reductions amounting to approximately 1.1 trillion yuan, with new policies planned for 2022 to further stimulate investment and improve corporate profitability [1] - The significance of tax cuts and fee reductions lies in enhancing the investment enthusiasm of enterprises, optimizing investment structure, and alleviating economic downward pressure [1] - The large-scale tax cuts will lead to a decrease in fiscal revenue, highlighting the need for balance in fiscal income and expenditure, which can be addressed by utilizing special remittances from state-owned financial institutions [1] Group 2 - The practice of central banks remitting profits to the government is common among major economies, with examples including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which have clear regulations regarding profit remittance [2] - The essence of central bank profit remittance is akin to paying a form of tax on the monopoly of currency issuance, known as seigniorage, which has historically been a significant source of government revenue [2]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in Hong Kong marks a significant shift towards the regulation and legitimization of stablecoins, establishing high entry barriers for participants and aiming to enhance Hong Kong's role in the global monetary system [2][7]. Group 1: Purpose of Stablecoins - The push for stablecoins in Hong Kong serves two main purposes: to defend against the dominance of the US dollar and to seek greater influence in the future global monetary system [3]. - Stablecoins are essentially digital currencies that maintain price stability, often pegged to fiat currencies like the US dollar, providing a means for individuals to hedge against local currency depreciation [4][5]. Group 2: Mechanism and Impact - Stablecoins are seen as tools for collecting seigniorage, with over 95% of mainstream stablecoins pegged to the US dollar, allowing capital to bypass local capital controls and traditional banking processes [6]. - The issuance of stablecoins tied to local currencies is a strategy employed by various economies to reduce reliance on the US dollar and promote a multipolar currency system [6][7]. Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The "Stablecoin Ordinance" aims to establish a regulatory framework that ensures compliance and protects investors, addressing risks exposed by previous industry failures [8]. - The ordinance requires stablecoin issuers to have a physical presence in Hong Kong, maintain sufficient reserves, and undergo annual audits, thereby enhancing market order and reducing risks for investors [8][9]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The success of Real World Assets (RWA) tokenization relies on the quality of underlying assets, emphasizing that RWA should not be viewed as a solution for illiquid or low-quality assets [9]. - The initiative represents a strategic move by Hong Kong to assert its influence in the global financial landscape while ensuring a secure environment for digital finance [9].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation, effective from August 1, 2025, marks a significant shift from a chaotic environment to a structured legal framework, allowing only robust and compliant companies to issue stablecoins, while excluding individuals and non-compliant entities [1][6] Group 1: Purpose of Stablecoin Regulation - The introduction of stablecoins in Hong Kong serves two main purposes: to defend against the dominance of the US dollar and to seek greater influence in the global monetary system [1][4] - Stablecoins are seen as tools to mitigate the risks of local currency depreciation, especially in countries with severe currency devaluation [2][4] Group 2: Advantages of Stablecoins - Stablecoins provide significant advantages in cross-border payments and real-time settlements compared to traditional banking systems, reducing costs and increasing transaction efficiency [3][4] - The dominance of US dollar-pegged stablecoins in global transactions allows the US to benefit from substantial "seigniorage" while challenging other nations' monetary sovereignty [4][5] Group 3: Regulatory Framework - The new regulation establishes a licensing mechanism with high entry barriers, ensuring that only well-capitalized and compliant entities can issue stablecoins, thereby enhancing market order and protecting investors [6][8] - The regulation mandates that all stablecoin issuers must have a physical presence in Hong Kong, maintain adequate reserves, and undergo annual audits to ensure redemption capabilities [6][8] Group 4: Future Implications - The regulation aims to position Hong Kong as a leader in digital asset regulation, enhancing its financial reputation while addressing past industry issues such as lack of transparency and risk management [6][8] - The successful implementation of the regulation could lead to the integration of real-world assets (RWA) into the digital finance ecosystem, provided that the underlying assets are of high quality and compliant [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the Renminbi (RMB) to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in the context of a changing global trade and financial environment, particularly in the emerging G2 world [2][9]. Historical Context - Previous currencies like the Japanese Yen and Euro had opportunities to challenge the dollar but ultimately failed due to various economic and political factors [3][5][6]. - The Yen appreciated significantly from 1985 to 1989, but this did not lead to its status as a global reserve currency, highlighting that currency strength does not guarantee international acceptance [4][5]. - The Euro faced challenges from its inception, including the Eurozone debt crisis, which undermined its credibility as a reserve currency [6][10]. Characteristics of Global Reserve Currencies - A global reserve currency typically requires military power to ensure its dominance, as seen historically with currencies from Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK [7]. - The US dollar's status is supported by a favorable external environment post-World War II, characterized by globalization and reduced geopolitical conflicts [8]. - The concept of "seigniorage" allows the issuer of a reserve currency to benefit from printing money, but this is not an unlimited power, as evidenced by the US's current debt situation [8][11]. Current Situation of the Renminbi - The global interest in the RMB is increasing, driven by concerns over the US's weaponization of the dollar and the need for alternative financial systems [10][13]. - The RMB's role as a transaction currency is growing, but it still lacks the characteristics necessary for it to be a long-term reserve currency, such as liquidity and full convertibility [10][14]. - The RMB's internationalization is influenced by the relative decline of trust in the US and the rise of China's economic influence [13][14]. Future Outlook - The potential for the RMB to challenge the dollar's dominance is contingent on several factors, including the establishment of a robust RMB settlement network and the resolution of existing economic and policy risks [10][14]. - The transition to a multi-currency world may take time, as the dollar's dominance is deeply entrenched [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical and current challenges faced by currencies like the Ruble, Yen, Euro, and the potential for the Renminbi to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in the global financial system [1][2][3][4][5][6][9][10]. Group 1: Historical Context of Currency Competition - The Ruble was once considered a competitor to the dollar until the economic weaknesses of the Soviet Union became apparent [1]. - The Plaza Accord in 1985 led to a rapid appreciation of the Yen, which contributed to Japan's asset bubble, but did not result in the Yen becoming a major global reserve currency [2][3]. - The Euro has faced significant challenges since its inception, particularly during the Eurozone debt crisis, which highlighted the lack of a unified fiscal policy among member states [3][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of Global Reserve Currencies - A global reserve currency typically requires military power to ensure its dominance, as seen with historical currencies of Spain, the Netherlands, and the UK [5]. - The US has maintained its position as the global reserve currency due to its military spending and the favorable external environment post-World War II [5][6]. Group 3: Current and Future Prospects for the Renminbi - The increasing global attention on the Renminbi is partly due to the erosion of trust in the US dollar under Trump's administration, leading to a search for alternative reserve currencies [6][9]. - The Renminbi's potential as a reserve currency is hindered by its limited circulation and the lack of liquid Renminbi-denominated assets [7][9]. - For the Renminbi to challenge the dollar, it must establish a settlement network, particularly in Asia, and build trust in its stability and convertibility [10].

Group 1 - The core idea is that the U.S. is exploring the issuance of stablecoins as a means to redefine and support U.S. Treasury bonds amidst a growing debt crisis and lack of buyers [2][3][9] - The current U.S. national debt stands at $36.8 trillion, with annual interest payments reaching $1.5 trillion, which constitutes 30% of federal revenue [2] - The U.S. is facing a significant challenge as the largest currency supplier and the largest goods supplier are in conflict, leading to a decrease in the dollar's commodity backing [3][5] Group 2 - The potential strategy of using digital currency as a new anchor for U.S. Treasury bonds could allow for tax reductions without Federal Reserve interference, benefiting the current administration [5] - The issuance of stablecoins could increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds by integrating them into global economies, thus expanding market space and revenue from seigniorage [5][9] - The U.S. is under pressure as countries lose confidence in U.S. debt, with Japan recently selling off U.S. bonds and using them as leverage in trade negotiations [9] Group 3 - The proposed issuance of century bonds, which would require other countries to buy long-term, no-interest U.S. bonds, is seen as a way to manipulate foreign nations into financing U.S. debt [7][9] - The current administration's approach to tariffs and trade is viewed as a means to fill budget gaps, with a projected fiscal deficit of $1.833 trillion for 2024 [7] - The urgency of addressing the $36.8 trillion debt is emphasized, as failure to do so could lead to severe economic consequences in the near future [9]

Group 1 - The core argument is that the U.S. should embrace decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin as a strategic advantage against China, which has rejected them [1][3] - Approximately 50 million Americans currently hold Bitcoin, a number expected to grow, while China has banned cryptocurrency trading and investment since 2019 [3] - Trump's administration has initiated policies to position the U.S. as a leader in digital assets and financial technology, including the establishment of a working group for AI and cryptocurrencies [3][4] Group 2 - Concerns are raised about the regulatory framework surrounding stablecoins, particularly the potential for regulatory arbitrage and systemic risks due to relaxed reserve requirements [5][18] - The lack of transparency and potential conflicts of interest in Trump's cryptocurrency policies could lead to significant risks for the financial system [20][21] - The geopolitical implications of rejecting a central bank digital currency (CBDC) could weaken the U.S. dollar's dominance, allowing countries like China to expand their digital currency initiatives [19][27] Group 3 - The potential for a collapse of major stablecoins could trigger a broader financial crisis, affecting both the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial systems [28][29] - Recommendations for policymakers include implementing full reserve requirements for stablecoins and ensuring that they are treated similarly to banks to prevent liquidity crises [30][31] - The overall assessment indicates that Trump's cryptocurrency agenda poses high risks with low potential rewards, threatening long-term financial stability and geopolitical influence [33][34]