研究咨询 集运指数（欧线）期现货 2025-10-10|新世纪期货 电话：0571-85103057 邮编：310000 地址：杭州市下城区万寿亭 13 号 网址 http://www.zjncf.com.cn 欧线现货运价如预期上涨 但盘面延续下 行走势——集运指数（欧线）策略周度 分享 欧线现货运价持续上涨 但预计低于盘面 水平——集运指数（欧线）策略周度分 享 欧线运价持续上涨 但涨幅小于盘面预期 ——集运指数（欧线）策略周度分享 现货运价预计持续上涨 涨后水平或小于 盘面——集运指数（欧线）策略周度分 享 9 月欧线现货运价持续下行趋势，但随着班轮公司公布国庆停航信息以及宣涨 10 月中下旬运价，一定程度上提振多头情绪，盘面宽幅震荡。市场整体货量较少，班轮公 司为维持航线装载率继续加强揽货力度，欧洲、北美等航线运价均延续下跌趋势，而盘 面受乐观情绪的支撑，因此期现基差快速收窄。 截止 9 月底，上海出口集装箱结算运价指数 SCFIS 三周均价为 1271.88 点，环比下跌 40.43%，9 月上海出口集装箱运价指数 SCFI（欧线）均值为 1123/TEU，环比下跌 37.48%， （美西）均值为 ...

2025 年 9 月 29 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，关注宣涨的情绪冲击 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 41 商 品 研 究 研 究 所 期货研究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2510 | 1,139.0 | -1.86% | 22,035 | 32,431 | -3,095 | 0.68 | | 1.09 | | 期货 | EC2512 | 1.74% 1,777.0 | | 19,314 | 21,695 | -1,300 | 0.89 | | 1.02 | | | EC2602 | 1,685.0 2.26% | | 6,466 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has fallen below 1500 points for nine consecutive weeks, and online quotes in the second half of September have been further reduced. The price shows a smooth downward trend in the off - season with an enlarged decline. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The SCFIS has dropped below 1500 points for nine consecutive weeks, and online quotes in the second half of September have been further cut. For example, Maersk's quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the third and fourth weeks of September decreased by about $400 compared to the first half of the month, and OOCL's quotes dropped by about $200. The overall shipping capacity has increased while the scale of blank sailings is not significantly higher than last year. There may be low - buying opportunities in December, and the October contract is advised to be short - allocated on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - From September 8th to 12th, the China Export Container Shipping Market was basically stable, but most route freight rates declined, dragging down the comprehensive index. In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year - on - year. The Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index on September 12th was 1398.11 points, down 3.2% from the previous period. For the European route, China's exports to Europe increased by 10.4% year - on - year in August, and the freight rate on September 12th was $1154/TEU, down 12.2% from the previous period. The Mediterranean route showed a similar downward trend. For the North American route, the US employment market slowed down significantly in August, and China's exports to the US decreased by more than 30% year - on - year in August, but the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East increased by 8.3% and 7.6% respectively. The Middle East situation has become tense again, with intensified conflicts between Israel and relevant parties [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From September 8th to 15th, the SCFIS for the European route decreased from 1566.46 to 1440.24, a decrease of 8.1%, while the SCFIS for the US West route increased from 980.48 to 1349.84, an increase of 37.7% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Transaction data for September 16th shows that for the EC2510 contract, the closing price was 1169.7, down 0.10% from the previous settlement price; for the EC2512 contract, the closing price was 1673.8, up 2.04%; for the EC2602 contract, the closing price was 1572.1, up 3.36%; for the EC2604 contract, the closing price was 1283.7, up 2.69%; for the EC2606 contract, the closing price was 1471.6, up 3.25%; for the EC2608 contract, the closing price was 1625.9, up 1.84% [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The content provides charts on container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, but specific data is not further described in the text [17][19]

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 16 日 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货9月15日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,181.6 | 1,150.0 | 1,163.1 | 1,170.9 | -18.5 | -1 ...

航运日报 | 2025-09-10 MSC、YML以及HPL10月上半月价格公布，10合约估值顶 部继续下修 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹38周价格1050/1760；HPL -SPOT 9月下半月价格935/1535，10月上半月 价格935/1535。马士基远东-北欧地区PSS降为50/100. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 9月下半月船期报价1040/1740，10月上半月价格1040/1740；ONE9月下半月船期报 价1544/1943；HMM上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价介于1700-1900美元/FEU; YML9月下半月至10月15日报价 1050/1700。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹9月下半月船期报价1210/2020；EMC 9月份下半月船期价格介于1910-2010； OOCL 9月船期价格介于1650-1700美元/FEU。 地缘端： 一名以色列官员表示，以色列对哈马斯在卡塔尔首都多哈的高级政治领导人发动了袭击，在以色列加大 对加沙地带的攻势之际，以色列对该组织的打击进一步升级。以色列官 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the first half of September (week 36 - 37). Week 36's average quoted price is $2,270 (equivalent to 1,600 points on the futures), and Week 37's is $2,125 (1,450 points). The overall shipping capacity in September has been reduced, mainly due to additional sailings cancellations by the OA Alliance's FAL3 in week 37, and PA & MSC's FE3 in weeks 39 and 41, and FE4 in week 41. The average weekly shipping capacity in September and October is 296,000 and 309,000 TEU respectively, and after classifying all TBN sailings as cancellations, it becomes 296,000 and 281,000 TEU. The situation in September is relatively relaxed, and the downward trend is expected to continue for at least two more weeks. In October, attention should be paid to shipping companies' sailing cancellation actions. In terms of valuation, the price of the 10 - contract is approaching the annual low (1,250 - 1,300), with limited downward space. The 12 - contract may decline in the short term but is in the peak season and long - term contract negotiation period, so opportunities to go long at low prices can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content EC Futures Contracts - EC2510 closed at 1,340.7 with a 3.82% increase, trading volume of 36,023 and open interest of 54,157, an increase of 1,886 [1]. - EC2512 closed at 1,733.5 with a 5.64% increase, trading volume of 7,001 and open interest of 16,673, an increase of 178 [1]. - EC2602 closed at 1,550.1 with a 6.08% increase, trading volume of 1,133 [1]. - EC2604 closed at 1,246.9 with a 0.41% increase, trading volume of 877 and open interest of 7,199, an increase of 130 [1]. - EC2606 closed at 1,438.9 with a 0.73% increase, trading volume of 68 [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The spread between EC2510 - 2512 was - 392.8, a daily decrease of 43.3 and a weekly decrease of 88.3 [1]. - The spread between EC2512 - 2602 was 183.4, a daily increase of 3.8 and a weekly increase of 3.7 [1]. Shipping Freight Indexes - The SCFIS SCFI (European route) on September 1, 2025, was $1,481/TEU, a decrease of 100.00% from the previous period and 8.71% from the period before last [1]. - The CCFI on August 29, 2025, was 1,685.8, a decrease of 4.09% from the previous period [1]. - The NCFI on August 29, 2025, was 929.56, a decrease of 14.23% from the previous period [1]. Recent European Route Quotations - Week 36: The latest quoted prices from shipping companies range from $2,120 - 2,420, with an average of $2,250 (1,550 points). PA Alliance's price is $2,200 - 2,300, MSK's initially $2,100 then rose to $2,200, and OA Alliance's is $2,300 - 2,400 [2]. - Week 37: The average quoted price is $2,100 (1,450 points). MSK's price is $1,900 (later rose to $1,950), PA Alliance's is $2,100 - 2,150, and OA Alliance's is $2,100 - 2,300 [2]. - Week 38: MSK's opening quoted price is $1,700. On Tuesday, HMM decreased by $100 to $2,100, HPL by $100 to $1,935, MSC by $100 to $2,040, and OOCL maintained at $1,950 - 2,000 [2]. Related News - On September 2, 2025, the Israeli military stated that its military operations in Gaza City had advanced to a new area, and it would intensify its actions until the "enemy is completely defeated" [3]. - On September 1, 2025, the Houthi armed forces claimed to have attacked an oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. After the Israeli military's air - strike on Sanaa on August 28, the Houthi armed forces' leader announced retaliation and an escalation of military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the end of August and early September (week35 - 36). Week35's final average price is $2550 (1800 points), and week36's current average quoted price is $2300 (1600 points). Most shipping companies face cargo - receiving pressure at the end of the month, and the shipping capacity in September is generally reduced. The overall situation in September is loose, and the subsequent driving force remains weak. However, the valuation in October is approaching the annual low (1250 - 1300), with limited downside space. Attention can be paid to the long - allocation opportunity of the 12 - contract [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs EC Futures Contract Information - For EC2510, the closing price is 1285.0, with a decline of 2.36%, the base bond is 705.2, the trading volume is 25330, the open interest is 54248, and the open interest change is 523. Similar data is provided for other contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc [2] - The month - spread of EC2510 - 2512 is - 286.0, with a daily increase of 18.5 and a weekly increase of 66.2. The month - spread of EC2512 - 2602 is 171.0, with a daily decrease of 8.7 and a weekly decrease of 25.2 [2] Spot Rate Index Information - The SCFIS (European line) index on August 25, 2025, is 1990.2, with a decline of 8.35% compared to the previous period. The CCFI on August 22, 2025, is 1757.74, with a decline of 1.83% compared to the previous period. The NCFI on August 22, 2025, is 1083.74, with a decline of 8.83% compared to the previous period [2] Recent European Line Quotation Information - For week36, the latest quoted price of shipping companies ranges from $2120 to $2420, with an average of $2250 (1550 points). For week37, the latest average quoted price is $2200 (1500 points) [3] Shipping Capacity Information - The weekly average shipping capacity in September and October 2025 is 300,000 and 320,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, it is 290,000 and 290,000 TEU respectively. On August 26, the suspension of the FE4 route of the PA Alliance in week38 of September was filled by HMM AOUAMARINE, increasing the weekly average shipping capacity in September to 305,000 TEU [2] Related News - On August 29, the Israeli military stated that it was preparing to expand military operations against Hamas in Gaza City. The Houthi armed leader accused Israel of carrying out large - scale massacres against Palestine [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: August 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the SCFIS dropped below 2000 points for six consecutive weeks, but the decline in online quotes has stabilized. Some shipping companies have shown a willingness to support prices in September. Considering the uncertainty of tariffs and weak demand, the freight rate may be weaker in the off - season this year. The short - term futures decline may narrow, but in the long run, it may still show a downward trend. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The SCFIS has fallen below 2000 points for six consecutive weeks, and the decline in online quotes has stabilized. For example, the lowest online quote for 40GP large containers on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the fourth week of August was $2384 by Maersk, and other airlines also kept stable. CMA CGM, HPL, and ONE have announced higher freight rates for September, showing a willingness to support prices. Due to the impact of tariffs on foreign trade and high off - season capacity supply, the demand is hard to improve significantly. The 10 - contract is deeply discounted, and the short - term futures decline may narrow, but it may still decline in the long run, so it is advisable to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - From August 18 to 22, the China Export Container Transport Market was basically stable, but the supply - demand fundamentals were weak, and most route freight rates declined. The Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index on August 22 was 1415.36 points, down 3.1% from the previous period. In the European route, although the eurozone economy continued to recover, the impact of US tariff policies began to show, and the freight rate on August 22 was $1668/TEU, down 8.4%. The Mediterranean route was similar to the European route, with the freight rate on August 22 at $2225/TEU, down 2.4%. In the North American route, the US labor market cooled, and the freight rates to the US West and East on August 22 were $1644/FEU and $2613/FEU, down 6.5% and 3.9% respectively. Trump announced a "major" tariff investigation on imported furniture, which will impact the industry. Israel's Prime Minister approved the plan to capture Gaza City [9][10]. 3.3数据概览 3.3.1集运现货价格 - From August 18 to August 25, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) dropped from 2180.17 to 1990.2, a decrease of 8.7%. The SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) dropped from 1106.29 to 1041.38, a decrease of 5.9% [12]. 3.3.2集运指数（欧线）期货行情 - The report provides the trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 26, including contract information such as EC2510, EC2512, etc., with details of opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 - The report includes various shipping - related data charts, such as the Shanghai - European basic port freight rate and the Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate, but specific data is not further elaborated in the text description [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the monthly perspective, September is likely to see a double - decline in supply and demand. The decline in September's capacity compared to August has widened to 6.2%, but it is still significantly smaller than the decline in the same period in 2024. The current decline in capacity may be less than the decline in demand, and the fundamentals are expected to face further pressure. - Strategically, it is advisable to hold short positions for the October contract as appropriate and add short positions at high prices. The upper pressure level is referred to as 1400 - 1500 points. For the 2512 contract, in terms of unilateral valuation, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being. It is recommended to focus on the opportunities to expand the spreads of the 10 - 12 reverse spread and the 12 - 04 positive spread in the medium to long term. [8] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - In the past week, August's capacity was revised down from 325,000 to 314,000 TEU/week. In week 34, there were 3 new blank sailings, and the capacity in week 34 was revised down from 342,000 to 309,000 TEU. - In September, the number of undetermined sailings increased by 1 to 2, and the number of blank sailings increased by 1 to 6. The average weekly capacity was revised down from 308,000 to 294,000 TEU/week. The decline in September's capacity compared to August widened to 6.2%, but it was still significantly lower than the decline in the same period in 2024. - In October, there are 6 undetermined sailings and 4 blank sailings. Excluding undetermined sailings, the average weekly capacity is 289,000 TEU/week, but its reference value is currently limited. [4][5][61] 3.2 Demand - Since week 32, the decline in freight rates has led to an increase in the willingness of downstream customers to hold goods and wait. Since week 34 (the third week of August), the booking rate has slowed down significantly month - on - month, and the cargo - collecting pressure of some shipping companies with extra sailings has increased. [5] 3.3 Price - The average FAK in week 34 (the third week of August) was about $2,750/FEU, and it is expected that the average FAK in week 35 (the last week of August) will be around $2,500/FEU. From the supply - demand pattern, the downward trend of freight rates in September remains unchanged. - The SCFIS European Line Index on August 11 was 2,235.48 points, and it is subjectively expected to be around 2,050 points on August 17. [6][16] 3.4 Historical Freight (Monthly) - It shows the freight rates from 2009 - 2024 and the month - on - month and year - on - year changes between different months, such as the comparison between June and February, December and April, etc. [11] 3.5 Global Main Route Freight Seasonal Trends - It presents the seasonal trends of freight rates on major global routes through the SCFI and NCFI, including routes to Europe, the Mediterranean, North America, South America, etc. [23][25] 3.6 Demand - Side Analysis - In July, the total volume of US imported containers was 2,732,039 TEU, with a year - on - year increase of 5.8% and a month - on - month increase of 14.7%. The import volume from different countries and regions showed different trends. - In June, China's export decline to the US narrowed, and exports to the EU, ASEAN, Africa, and Japan maintained resilience. [35][36] 3.7 Supply - Side Analysis - In terms of ship schedules, there have been changes in capacity from August to October, including new blank sailings and changes in undetermined sailings. - Regarding dynamic capacity, the speed of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container fleets has fluctuated upwards, and the number of idle 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000+ TEU container fleets has increased. - In terms of static capacity, in August, the top ten liner companies received 3 new 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, all from the OA Alliance and deployed on the US routes. There were no new 17,000+ TEU ships delivered in August. [61][65][91]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The shipping index (European Line) showed a volatile trend yesterday. The main 2510 contract closed at 1420.4 points, down 0.98%, with a reduction of 765 lots; the second main 2512 contract closed at 1763.2 points, up 0.21%, with an increase of 179 lots; the near - month 2508 contract closed at 2072.7 points, down 0.37%. Overall, from a monthly - level perspective, September is likely to see a double - reduction in supply and demand, but the current estimated decline in shipping capacity may be less than that in demand, and the fundamentals are expected to face further pressure. Strategically, hold short positions on the 10 contract as appropriate, and add positions at high levels as appropriate, with the upper resistance level referring to 1450 - 1500 points [7][10]. Summary by Related Content 1. Fundamental Data of Shipping Index (European Line) - **Futures Contracts**: EC2508 closed at 2072.7, down 0.37%, with 216 trades and 3,579 open interests, a decrease of 121; EC2510 closed at 1420.4, down 0.98%, with 26,142 trades and 53,596 open interests, a decrease of 765; EC2512 closed at 1763.2, up 0.21%, with 4,400 trades and 9,760 open interests, an increase of 179 [1]. - **Freight Index**: SCFIS European route was 2,297.86 points, down 0.8%; SCFIS US - West route was 1,130.12 points, down 12.0%; SCFI European route was $2,051/TEU, down 1.9%; SCFI US - West route was $2,021/FEU, down 2.2% [1]. - **Spot Freight**: Different alliances' freight rates showed a downward trend. In a neutral scenario, the market FAK freight rate center at the end of August is expected to be in the range of $2,500 - 2,600/FEU [8]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 98.23, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.18 [1]. 2. Supply - Side Fundamentals - **August**: The weekly shipping capacity was revised down from 32.8 to 32.5 TEU/week. The average weekly capacity in the first half - month (weeks 32 - 33) was 320,000 TEU, and in the second half - month (weeks 34 - 35) was 329,000 TEU. The cargo - collection pressure in the second half - month is relatively greater [9]. - **September**: The number of undetermined voyages decreased by 1 to 3, and the number of blank sailings increased by 2 to 4. The average weekly capacity was revised down from 31.8 to 30.8 TEU/week. The current September capacity is lower than August's 325,000 TEU/week, higher than July's 301,000 TEU/week, and similar to April's 313,000 TEU/week [9]. 3. Demand - Side Fundamentals - Since mid - August, the overall market cargo volume has shown a mild downward trend, and the subsequent decline rate needs to be observed [9]. 4. Macro News - Zelensky stated that the initiative to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict lies in Russia, and Ukraine is preparing a series of meetings in Europe to promote the peace process [6]. - South African President Ramaphosa held talks with Russian President Putin to discuss the Ukraine peace process [6]. 5. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the shipping index (European Line) is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [11].