证 券 研 究 报 告 如何构建含有预期的多资产配置组合？ 基于BootStrap的配置方式探讨 —— 金融产品每周见20251118 证券分析师：蒋辛 A0230521080002 邓虎 A0230520070003 白皓天 A0230525070001 联系人： 蒋辛 A0230521080002 jiangxin@swsresearch.com 2025.11.18 主要内容 1. 资产配置模型概述 02基础模型-均值方差模型 2 2. 纳入预期的多资产配置模型——采用BootStrap方法 进行映射分析 3. 风险提示及声明 1.1 资产配置模型——从现代资产组合理论入手 图：代表性资产配置模型概述 01固定比例配置 运作方式：股债20/80指数等 优势：运作简单，满足基础分散化投资诉求 劣势：不够灵活，环境变动下收益差距可能较大 04风险平价模型 运作方式：仅关注风险端，追求各资产风险配置均衡 优势：强化风险控制；可引入宏观风险、汇率风险等多 维度的风险，用多维风控信息做组合 劣势：依赖风控模型，当出现难以识别的风险时，没有 收益兜底的风险平价模型较难及时做调整。 运作方式：给定收益/风险，确定组合 ...

当前市场环境下，全球经济增速放缓、资本市场波动加剧，投资者对资产配置的需求日益提升。且随着 居民财富管理意识的提升和投资理念的成熟，越来越多的投资者不再满足于简单的金融产品投资，而是 倾向于借助专业机构的力量实现资产的稳健增值。这种对专业化、系统化资产配置工具的需求，正推动 FOF产品成为公募基金领域的重要增长极。 而要实现科学合理的资产配置，离不开一支专业化、复合型的投研团队作为坚强后盾。FOF产品的成功 运作，依赖于团队成员在宏观研判、量化分析、风险识别及全流程管控等多领域的深厚积累与协同合 作。他们如同一个高效协同的"智囊团"，每位成员都需具备不同资产领域的专长，同时能够形成合力， 共同应对多元资产配置中的复杂挑战。 数据显示，FOF产品正以强劲势头发展。截至今年三季度末，我国公募FOF产品数量已达518只，总规 模突破1934.9亿元，较二季度末增长达16.8%，新发基金数量也呈现回升态势。尤为引人注目的是，在 过去的三季度里近99%的FOF产品实现了正收益，展现出在震荡市场中出色的抗风险能力与稳健回报特 征。 正是基于对FOF本质的深刻理解，民生加银基金构建了一支背景多元、经验丰富的FOF投研团队， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges of timing investments in different asset classes and suggests that a macro strategy, which diversifies across multiple assets, can mitigate the need for precise timing [4][5][6]. Market Overview - The A-share market has been fluctuating between 3800 and 3900 points for the past two months, and after breaking through 4000 points, it faces a new directional choice [5]. - Investors are currently conflicted about whether to invest in stocks, fearing high prices, or in stable bonds, worrying about missing out on potential gains [5]. Asset Performance Analysis - Historical data indicates that no single asset class consistently outperforms; different asset classes have strong and weak years [7][9]. - Over the past decade, A-shares outperformed other assets only in 2019 and 2020, while U.S. stocks also faced significant downturns in 2022 [9]. - Bonds showed stability with good returns last year but faced some pullbacks this year, while commodities had a brief bull run in 2021 and 2022 but performed poorly in other years [10]. Asset Class Characteristics - The core returns of different asset classes are driven by distinct underlying logic: - Stocks benefit from corporate profit growth, performing well in a stable economic environment [12]. - Commodities gain from supply-demand imbalances and inflation, thriving during high inflation or economic overheating [12]. - Bonds rely on fixed interest and price appreciation from falling interest rates, excelling during economic slowdowns or deflationary expectations [12]. Timing and Strategy - Timing investments is crucial for achieving satisfactory returns in single asset investments, with two main objectives: trend following and identifying undervalued assets [13]. - Macro strategies, which are multi-asset in nature, do not require timing as they inherently balance risk across various asset classes [14]. - A well-structured macro strategy can capture both rising and undervalued assets, providing better safety margins and lower costs [15]. Long-term Performance of Strategies - Historical performance of private equity strategies shows that without timing, achieving ideal returns is challenging, often leading to significant volatility [17]. - In contrast, macro strategies tend to yield satisfactory returns regardless of the timing of entry, with relatively lower volatility and better holding experiences [17].

Core Viewpoint - Asset allocation is a complex and multi-dimensional task, often referred to as "physical labor" due to the extensive research required to achieve effective configurations [1][2][27]. Group 1: Passive vs. Active Allocation - Passive allocation, which relies on diversification to reduce volatility, faces challenges in practice, particularly for domestic investors due to limited asset classes and the poor performance of key assets like A-shares [5][9][27]. - Active allocation aims to enhance returns beyond passive strategies by making informed predictions about expected returns, addressing the shortcomings of passive allocation [2][27]. Group 2: Issues with Passive Allocation - Determining expected returns using historical data can lead to "chasing performance," where investors favor assets that have recently performed well, skewing allocation models [5][9]. - The correlation between assets is not stable; for instance, the historical negative correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds has weakened since the 2008 financial crisis, impacting the effectiveness of diversification [6][9]. - The performance of passive allocation is heavily dependent on the underlying assets' returns and their correlations, which can be problematic in markets with limited asset classes [9][27]. Group 3: The Complexity of Active Allocation - Active allocation involves timing decisions, which many investors find challenging, leading to skepticism about its feasibility [17][19]. - While achieving a high accuracy rate in timing is difficult, even a modest success rate can significantly enhance investment returns when combined with sound risk management [18][19]. - The macroeconomic drivers influencing asset performance can change, necessitating continuous adjustments to research frameworks and strategies [21][27]. Group 4: Multi-Dimensional Decision Making - Effective asset allocation requires multiple low-correlation return streams to improve the probability of successful outcomes, as relying on a single asset is often insufficient [22][23]. - A structured decision-making framework that incorporates both strategic and tactical allocations can enhance the robustness of investment strategies [23][24]. - Strict risk budgeting is essential to ensure that asset allocations align with the overall risk tolerance of the portfolio, preventing forced liquidations during market fluctuations [24][25].

本文首发于公众号"私募排排网"。 （点击↑↑ 上图查看详情 ） 编 者按 私募排排网数据显示，截至2025年10月底，管理规模在20亿以下的私募管理人有近7200家，占比超90%，是私募行业数量庞大的中坚力量。私募排 排网推出 「打卡100家小而美私募」 栏目，聚焦管理规模适中、策略特色鲜明的优质私募基金管理人。通过深度解析其投资方法论、风控体系及能力 圈建设，为投资者提供差异化的视角与洞察。本期打卡—— 金和晟基金 。 Part.1 公司概况 上海 金和晟私募基金管理有限公司（登记编号P1071636）于2020年8月26日注册成立，2025年7月完成注册地迁移及管理人名称变更。目前管 理资产规模10-20亿，存续产品32只。（ 点击查看产品收益 ） | 序号 | 产品简称 产品策略 | 基金经理 成立日期 | 近6月收益 今年来收益 | 成立以来收 载 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 金和全天候1号A类份额 宏观策略 | | 空動 2024/4/15 | 应合规要求 | | | 金和中证1000指数增强1 量化多头。 3 | 를 | 王建兵 2021/2/26 ...

Core Insights - The total scale of China's ETF market has exceeded 5 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025, reflecting a growth of over 35% compared to the end of 2024, with nearly 1,300 ETFs available in the market [1] - The launch of the Fuguo Hengyi 3-Month Holding Mixed Fund of Funds (ETF-FOF) on October 27 aims to provide a flexible investment solution for investors to capture trading opportunities in the ETF market [1][2] ETF-FOF Overview - ETF-FOF combines the advantages of ETFs and FOFs, offering convenience, low fees, and high transparency while allowing for professional asset allocation [2] - The product mandates that at least 80% of its non-cash fund assets be invested in ETFs, making it a cost-effective and efficient option for diversified asset allocation [2] Asset Allocation Strategy - The Fuguo Hengyi 3-Month Holding Mixed ETF-FOF aims for low volatility and absolute returns, with a diversified investment framework covering bonds, stocks, cross-border assets, and gold [3] - The performance benchmark includes a specific allocation: 65% to the China Bond Composite Index, 12% to the CSI 800 Index, 12% to the Hang Seng Index, 6% to gold, and 5% to bank deposits [3] Tactical Operations - The fund employs a duration timing strategy for bond ETFs and various strategies for stocks, cross-border assets, and gold to enhance returns [4] - A 3-month holding period is set for the fund, allowing for flexible redemption while aiming to improve the investment experience [4] Management Expertise - The fund is managed by Zhang Ziyan, who has 14 years of experience in securities and a strong background in multi-asset allocation [5] - Fuguo Fund has over 80 ETF products, providing a rich toolkit for the operation of the ETF-FOF, supported by a well-established investment strategy [5] Market Demand - The introduction of the Fuguo Hengyi 3-Month Holding Mixed ETF-FOF addresses the growing demand for diversified asset allocation tools, offering a "worry-free, efficient, and diverse" investment solution [6]

Core Viewpoint - China has entered a low-interest-rate era since 2019, facing constraints on further policy rate cuts due to various factors, including bank net interest margin pressure and residents' savings demands. Despite these challenges, bond assets can still provide underlying returns, and the "fixed income +" strategy is expected to become a significant development direction for asset management institutions, aligning with investors' core demand for stable value growth [1][5][18]. Group 1: Japan's Low-Interest Rate Era and Bond Market Evolution - Japan's low-interest-rate era began in 1999 after a series of financial crises and asset price collapses, leading to a shift in asset allocation towards low-risk assets [2][5]. - The share of overseas bond investments in Japan increased from 33% to 54% between 1997 and 2003, indicating a trend towards globalization in asset management strategies [2][4]. - The introduction of J-REITs in Japan has provided a stable income source, with annualized returns fluctuating between 4.3% and 8.9% from 2013 to 2022, contributing to the growth of the asset management industry [4]. Group 2: Characteristics of China's Low-Interest Rate Era - Since 2019, China's policy interest rates have been on a downward trend, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping below 2.0% [5][6]. - The banking sector's total assets are projected to reach 276.1% of GDP by 2024, with interest income accounting for 77.6%, indicating a significant reliance on interest income [5]. - By the end of 2024, the number of bond funds in China reached 4,534, with a total scale of 23.07 trillion yuan, reflecting a 15.9% year-on-year growth [6][7]. Group 3: Performance of Bond Products - The total scale of money market funds increased by 20.7% in 2024, while short-term bond funds grew by 13%, indicating a strong preference for low-risk investments [6][7]. - The mid-to-long-term pure bond fund index rose by 4.59% in 2024, marking a historical high in returns [8]. - "Fixed income +" products faced redemption challenges in early 2024 but rebounded in the fourth quarter as the stock market recovered, with a projected growth of 13.77% in the first half of 2025 [6][8]. Group 4: "Fixed Income +" Strategy Pathways - The narrow definition of "fixed income +" focuses on equity assets as the core for enhancement, leveraging the dual return attributes of stocks and the supportive policies from the government [10][11]. - The broad definition of "fixed income +" emphasizes a multi-asset integration approach, incorporating commodities, alternative assets, and global diversification to enhance risk-return efficiency [13][14]. - The asset allocation strategy from 2019 to present has yielded an annualized return of 9.17%, demonstrating the effectiveness of diversified asset strategies compared to single assets [14][17]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The "fixed income +" strategy is expected to benefit from the stability of bond underlying returns and the effects of multi-asset enhancement, indicating a broad development space in the future [18].

Group 1: Fund Market Overview - In September, the market saw a total of 126 new funds issued, with a total issuance scale of 1,096.71 billion yuan, including 27 active equity funds with an issuance scale of 168.61 billion yuan and 76 index funds with an issuance scale of 807.51 billion yuan [3][4] - The performance of funds in September was generally positive, with all major fund types rising except for pure bond funds, which fell by 0.10%. Commodity funds had the highest increase, rising by 9.40% [3][4] - The average increase for large funds (over 10 billion yuan) was 7.43%, while small funds (1-10 billion yuan) had an average increase of 4.98% [4] Group 2: Financing and Margin Trading - As of September 30, the margin trading balance in the A-share market was 23,867.40 billion yuan, an increase of 1,327.62 billion yuan from the previous month [8] - The financing balance was 23,709.72 billion yuan, up by 1,328.72 billion yuan, while the securities lending balance decreased slightly to 157.68 billion yuan [8] - The electronic, power equipment, and communication sectors saw significant net buying in financing, while the defense, agriculture, and oil sectors had lower net buying [9] Group 3: Industry Insights - The price of packaging paper has been rising, with average prices for various types of paper increasing by 30 to 140 yuan per ton compared to late September [11] - The light manufacturing industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.23 percentage points, while the textile and apparel industry outperformed by 2.12 percentage points during the period from October 9 to October 10 [11] - The report indicates that the recent increase in U.S. tariffs poses short-term risks, but the long-term competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing remains strong [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing popularity and strong performance of Bridgewater's All Weather strategy, highlighting its appeal to investors and the challenges faced in accessing these investment products [6][8][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index approached the 3900-point mark, indicating a bullish sentiment in the A-share market [5]. - Bridgewater's All Weather strategy products have shown exceptional performance, with the worst product line yielding annual returns between 10% and 14%, and an average return of approximately 16% [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The All Weather strategy relies on a risk parity model, diversifying across asset classes to achieve balance, which helps mitigate significant cyclical volatility while providing decent returns [9]. - The strategy's success is attributed to its ability to adapt to different market conditions, where typically, when the stock market declines, the bond market rises, and inflation-hedging assets like gold appreciate [9]. Group 3: Alternative Strategies - Several domestic managers have successfully localized the All Weather strategy, offering various macro-hedging strategies that replicate the classic risk parity model [10]. - The macro-hedging strategies focus on trading core assets in the US and China, utilizing a combination of beta (70%) and alpha (30%) models to capture short-term opportunities [10]. Group 4: Quantitative Models - The beta component constructs a macro risk-balanced investment portfolio based on economic growth and inflation, ensuring that no single asset class dominates the portfolio [11]. - The alpha component enhances returns through unique factor libraries and quantitative models, including CTA and multi-factor models, aiming to improve the overall Sharpe ratio and return-to-drawdown ratio [13]. Group 5: Risk Management - The strategies employ a systematic approach to risk management, with a focus on maintaining a balanced exposure across various asset classes while controlling overall portfolio volatility [18][25]. - The investment strategy covers a wide range of liquid assets, including equities, bonds, and commodities, with a target to keep overall volatility within 8% [24].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong demand for Bridgewater's All Weather strategy products, which have shown impressive performance and have become increasingly popular among investors [2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index approached the 3900-point mark, indicating a bullish sentiment in the A-share market [1]. - Bridgewater's All Weather strategy products were sold out shortly after their launch in August due to overwhelming demand [3]. Group 2: Strategy Performance - The All Weather strategy has consistently delivered strong returns, with the worst-performing product line achieving annual returns between 10% and 14%, and an average return of approximately 16% [4]. - The strategy's success is attributed to its risk parity model, which diversifies investments across various asset classes to balance risk and return [6]. Group 3: Strategy Components - The strategy consists of a beta component (70%) based on a risk parity model and an alpha component (30%) that captures short-term opportunities through various sub-strategies [6][9]. - The beta portion aims to construct a macro risk-balanced portfolio by adjusting asset allocations based on economic growth and inflation [7]. - The alpha portion utilizes a unique factor library and quantitative models to enhance returns without increasing overall portfolio risk [8]. Group 4: Enhanced Macro Hedging Strategies - An enhanced macro hedging strategy combines quantitative models for asset allocation with subjective analysis to capture excess returns in specific asset classes [12][13]. - This strategy aims to achieve long-term returns while also seizing short-term investment opportunities based on economic cycles [14]. Group 5: Quantitative Macro Hedging - A fully quantitative macro hedging strategy employs various models to capture price signals across different time frames, covering a wide range of asset classes [15][16]. - The strategy maintains a balanced risk profile, with equity and debt each comprising 30% of the portfolio, gold at 15%, and other commodities at 25% [16]. - The overall strategy aims to optimize risk-return profiles while ensuring that volatility remains controlled within 8% [17].