说句实在话，现在这市场有点"魔幻"。 VIX指数低得快看不见了，黄金却疯涨到4500美元以上。 一边是"岁月静好"，一边是"末日警报"，到底谁在说真话？ 今天周叔就带大家拆解这场看似矛盾、实则暗流汹涌的金融大戏。 这些哪一点不危险？ 问题就出在这儿——VIX已经不再是"恐慌指数"，而是"控盘指数"。 大量机构通过做空波动率（比如卖出跨式期权）和高频交易超短期期权（甚至一天到期），人为压制市 场波动。 做市商在微幅震荡中"低买高卖"，形成一个自动稳定器，把任何风吹草动都熨平了。 VIX失灵？不是没风险，是风险被"压"住了 咱们先看数据：截至2026年1月初，VIX指数一度跌至13.6，创下近五年新低。 按常理，这说明美股风平浪静，投资者信心爆棚。 但现实呢？AI股估值高到离谱，美债规模突破38万亿美元，财政赤字像无底洞，美联储悄悄重启扩 表…… 黄金暴涨，是在替VIX"说实话" 那黄金为啥能一路冲上4533美元？因为它根本不信VIX那一套。 黄金看的是真实世界的"资产负债表"。 这不是市场没风险，而是风险被机械性地"藏"起来了。 周叔提醒一句：这种平静极其脆弱。 回看2024年12月，VIX同样处于历史低位，结 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that in 2026, debt issues will be a global challenge, and there are three main ways to address this: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-based debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-based debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-based debt reduction) [1] - AI and gold are expected to benefit from these pathways, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1] - The A-share market is anticipated to continue a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a significant change in corporate profit structures despite weaknesses in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI [1] Group 2 - Non-financial companies in the A-share market have stabilized their net asset return on equity (ROE) over several quarters, with profits from eight advanced manufacturing industries increasing to 38% [1] - Companies with overseas revenue have seen their overseas revenue proportion rise to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points, which may drive overall ROE recovery in the A-share market [1] - Current valuation increases are relatively restrained, with limited overextension, suggesting potential for valuation improvement if profits recover [1] Group 3 - Investment direction should focus on industries with supply constraints and clear prosperity trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and limited short-term supply release [1] - Other areas of interest include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1] - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for spring rallies, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, under the global challenge of debt issues, there are three main ways to address debt: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-driven debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-driven debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-driven debt reduction). Both AI and gold are expected to benefit from these paths, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a profound change in corporate profit structures. Despite weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI, the net asset return on equity (ROE) of non-financial enterprises has stabilized over several quarters [1]. - The profit share of the eight major advanced manufacturing industries has increased to 38%, while the overseas revenue share of companies operating abroad has risen to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points. These factors are likely to drive the overall ROE of A-shares to recover after stabilization [1]. - Current valuation increases are relatively restrained, with limited overextension. If profits recover, there is still room for valuation improvement. Additionally, the migration of deposits from insurance and high-net-worth individuals will bring incremental capital [1]. Group 2: Investment Direction - The focus should be on industries with constrained supply and clear upward trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and is unlikely to see supply release in the short term. Other areas include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1]. - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for the spring rally, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1].

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the global debt issue will present three main solutions: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-based debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-based debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-based debt reduction). Both AI and gold are expected to benefit from these paths, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1] Group 1: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a profound change in corporate profit structures despite ongoing weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI [1] - The net asset return on equity (ROE) for non-financial enterprises in the A-share market has stabilized over several quarters, with profits from eight advanced manufacturing industries now accounting for 38% of total profits [1] - Companies with overseas operations have seen their overseas revenue share increase to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points, which may drive a rebound in overall A-share ROE after stabilization [1] Group 2: Investment Directions - Investment focus should be on industries with constrained supply and clear prosperity trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and limited short-term supply release [1] - Other sectors to consider include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1] - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for the spring rally, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1]

1月2日美股开盘，道指盘中一度跳水，纳指拉涨。中概股则全线大涨，黄金有所回落。 晚间，美股集体高开后道指盘中一度跳水，纳指涨约1%。 个股方面，特斯拉微涨。 特斯拉最新公布的2025年第四季度交付量418227辆，同比减少16%；第四季度汽车产量434358辆，同比 减少5.5%。特斯拉全年交付量164万辆，同比减少8.6%。 值得注意的是，纳斯达克中国金龙指数暴涨，截至发稿大涨超4%。个股方面，百度暴涨超10%，公司 建议分拆昆仑芯于港交所主板独立上市，昆仑芯已提交上市申请。 此外，万国数据涨逾8%，叮咚买菜涨逾7%。 中概股全线大涨或受港股暴涨影响，港股截至收盘，恒生指数涨逾2.7%，恒生科技指数涨4%。 此外，韩国、新加坡、菲律宾等亚太股市均集体拉涨。 此外，人民币也在最近不断拉涨也是中国资产上涨的原因之一，截至发稿，美元兑离岸人民币升破 6.97。 黄金方面，截至发稿，现货黄金突然回落，不过仍保持在4340美元上方，今日曾一度突破4400美元。此 外，现货白银也回落至74美元下方。 2026年美联储的降息预期以及持续发酵的地缘政治紧张局势，成为推动本轮黄金价格走高的两大核心因 素。 芝加哥商品交易所集 ...

临近年末，又到了盘点一年投资的时点。过去一年有没有跑赢通胀，跑赢房租，跑赢自己的购物清单？ 明年又该如何打理投资？这些热门话题日益出现在网络上，也出现大众的耳畔嘴旁。 在小红书等社交媒体上，一股讨论"投资好时节"的热潮正在展开……，"现在投黄金基金还迟 么？"，"如何区分名字雷同的基金产品？"，"学生党蹲定投攻略"，"芯片还能拿么？" 想买点科技基金？来点ETF吧；想参与下创新药投资？投点ETF把；想补仓点黄金？也是买点这个方向 的ETF吧。 但也有越来越多的投资者表示，ETF投资起来真的太方便，但也太容易混淆了！ 且不说，同一个投资方向上可能有不同"名字"的ETF，有些还起得格外文绉绉，让人第一眼看不太明 白。类似于光伏与绿色电力，电动车和智能汽车之间，差异和区别实在不容易分清。 哪怕是跟踪统一的指数，沪深300、中证500这种，要找到自己信任的公司管理的产品也是大不易。打开 手机APP，输入拼音简称后跳出的第一个基金名字、甚至前5个名字也往往不是想要的那个，真是让 人"上火"。 对于想要投资对应ETF的投资者来说，未来只要记住上面的两个命名公式，很方便就可以找到自己希望 投资的具体ETF品种。 某种程度上 ...

编辑：杨希 本期文案：吴霜 栏目统筹：耿雁冰 栏目策划：杨希 视频制作：王淑美 2026年即将到来。展望未来，多家外资机构已经放话，2026年权益市场将继续涨，AI和黄金是两大核心主线！机构总结出，A股可以用"杠铃策略"——一端 蹲AI高科技成长股，一端守高息价值股，既赚上涨红利，又防波动风险。2026年你更看好AI还是黄金？本期飞钱说一起聊聊吧。 设计：王冰 出品：飞钱说工作室 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 marks a structural bull market, with significant gains in major indices, including an 18.36% increase in the CSI 300 and a 51.47% rise in the ChiNext Index, both representing the largest annual gains since 2020. The total trading volume of A-shares exceeded 400 trillion yuan, setting a historical record [1]. Monthly Key Events - January-February: AI models driven by DeepSeek and humanoid robot performances during the Spring Festival gained attention [4]. - March: Recovery in consumer scenarios boosted retail and catering sectors [4]. - April: U.S. tariffs led to increased interest in gold, agriculture, and undervalued blue-chip stocks [4]. - May: The May Day consumption peak activated the consumption and logistics sectors [4]. - June: Military parades and geopolitical tensions strengthened the military industry, while green building policies positively impacted related sectors [4]. - July: The commercial launch of humanoid robots and surging demand for AI computing power boosted related stocks [4]. - August: Support policies for synthetic biology spurred interest in beauty and pharmaceutical sectors [4]. - September: Accelerated industrialization of solid-state batteries led to valuation recovery in the new energy sector [4]. - October-November: Recovery in storage chip prices initiated an industry cycle reversal, benefiting the semiconductor sector [4]. - December: The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port and the issuance of L3 autonomous driving permits led to increased activity in local stocks and related technologies [4]. Industry Performance - The mining, hardware, industrial trade, and comprehensive sectors saw annual gains exceeding 60% [5]. - The top three investment themes in 2025 were innovative drugs, AI, and robotics, with gold also performing exceptionally well due to a weaker dollar [6][9]. Investment Highlights - Innovative drugs experienced a valuation reshaping driven by policy support and industry upgrades, with the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index rising 70.02% [7]. - The AI sector exploded following the introduction of DeepSeek, with significant growth in demand for chips and computing power [8]. - The robotics sector gained momentum with increased policy support and the emergence of domestic giants [9]. Fund Performance - 华夏基金 (China Asset Management) achieved notable success in various fund categories, continuing its strong performance from 2023 [10]. - The 华夏北交所创新中小企业精选两年定开 fund recorded a return of 270.61% over three years, with a 75.28% return in 2025 [11]. - The 华夏数字产业混合 fund saw a 126.46% increase in 2025, benefiting from the structural bull market in the AI sector [9]. ETF Market Growth - The ETF market in China reached 6.03 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, a 60% increase from the beginning of the year, with 1,381 ETFs available [15]. - 华夏基金 played a significant role in the growth of the ETF market through innovative tools and reports aimed at enhancing investor experience [16][17]. Strategic Evolution - 华夏基金 has transitioned from "managing assets" to "defining assets," focusing on a multi-asset approach to meet diverse investor needs in the era of inclusive finance [18][19].

导读：在经历了2022到2023连续两年的低迷，以及2024年的924反转后，2025年是一个完整的 结构性牛市。截止2025年12月28日，沪深300为代表的宽基指数涨幅18.36%，为2020年以来最 大年度涨幅；创业板指为代表的新兴成长指数涨幅51.47%，同样为2020年以来最大年度涨幅。 在这一年，几乎每一个月都有重要的行业主题事件，市场保持了很强的活跃度。全年A股交易额 突破400万亿元，创下历史新高。 资料来源：Wind；数据截至2025年12月28日 我们简单罗列了2025年每一个月的重要主题事件： ● 1-2月以DeepSeek开源大模型驱动的AI大模型/算力成为开年核心，同时春晚人形机器人舞蹈 引发关注； ● 3月消费场景修复带动零售、餐饮板块补涨； ● 4月美国加征"对等关税"后，黄金、农业等避险板块及低估值蓝筹受资金青睐； ● 5月五一消费旺季推动消费、物流板块活跃； ● 6月阅兵预期升温叠加地缘冲突催化，军工板块走强，同时受政策落地影响，绿色建筑板块有 不错行情； ● 7月人形机器人规模化商用启动，AI算力需求持续爆发推动光模块、服务器标的走强，同时雅 下工程启动带动基建、建材相关板 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for China's economy in 2026, emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts in promoting consumption, stabilizing investment, and strengthening exports to activate internal growth momentum despite a complex external environment [2][3]. Economic Growth Drivers - Consumption is highlighted as the main engine of economic growth, contributing 53.5% to GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a projected increase to 56.6% of GDP in 2024 [2]. - The article notes a significant gap in service consumption between China and countries like the U.S. and South Korea, indicating potential for growth in this area [2]. - Investment in high-tech industries is identified as a key growth area, with a focus on sectors such as integrated circuits and advanced materials, supported by national policies aimed at technological self-reliance [3]. Export Resilience - Despite global trade slowdowns, China's exports are expected to remain resilient due to market diversification and an improved product structure, shifting from labor-intensive goods to high-value products [3]. Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy for 2026 is expected to remain proactive, with ample room for both fiscal and monetary measures to ensure stable economic performance [3]. Asset Allocation Insights - The A-share market is anticipated to maintain a slow bull trend, driven by government support for capital market stability and a solid liquidity foundation [4]. - The technology sector is projected to be a core investment focus, with significant advancements in AI and a complete industrial ecosystem emerging in China [5]. - Gold is expected to see strong demand as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainties, with central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves [5].