Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is expected to outline the Fed's economic outlook and policy framework, which will significantly influence the Fed's future and Powell's political legacy [2][3]. Policy Path Planning - Powell's speech titled "Economic Outlook and Framework Assessment" indicates a focus on macroeconomic conditions and long-term policy goals, part of a review conducted every five years [3]. - Markets anticipate Powell will lay the groundwork for a potential interest rate cut in September, as he has hinted at significant policy shifts in previous Jackson Hole speeches [4]. - Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle suggests Powell may not explicitly signal a September rate cut but will likely indicate support for it, depending on upcoming data [5]. Independence Maintenance - President Trump has consistently criticized Powell and the Fed, pushing for lower interest rates, but the recent attacks have escalated beyond monetary policy [7][8]. - Powell may use this speech to defend the Fed's independence, emphasizing its importance for public benefit [8]. Framework Modification - Powell is expected to discuss modifications to the Fed's policy framework, particularly the potential abandonment of the "average inflation targeting" strategy established before the pandemic [9]. - The previous framework allowed for tolerating inflation above 2% to compensate for periods of low inflation, but recent inflation trends may prompt a return to a more proactive stance [9]. - Deutsche Bank's chief U.S. economist anticipates Powell will highlight changes to the Fed's long-term goals, advocating for a return to a "preemptive" approach to inflation [9]. Market Reactions - Traders are pricing in a 75% chance of a rate cut in September, with expectations for at least two additional 25 basis point cuts by year-end [11]. - Investors are closely monitoring Powell's speech for new clues regarding the rate cut path, which could significantly impact gold prices [12].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, signaling a cautious stance on monetary policy amid signs of economic slowdown [3][4] - The Fed acknowledges a "moderate slowdown" in the U.S. economy expected in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift from previous statements emphasizing "robust growth" [3][4] - Internal divisions within the Fed are emerging, with two voting members expressing support for rate cuts, contrasting with the more cautious outlook of other officials [3][4] Group 2 - The market has partially priced in expectations for rate cuts later this year, with analysts divided on the likelihood of such actions given current inflation pressures and labor market strength [4][5] - The dynamics of market expectations versus the Fed's actual policy decisions may continue to influence gold market sentiment, with potential for further upward momentum if economic data supports a slowdown [5] - Gold is currently at a critical technical level around $3,300 per ounce, with its future direction heavily dependent on Fed policy and market interpretations of interest rate paths [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing narrowed fluctuations, with a decline in bullish buying pressure [1] - Short-term resistance has been encountered, leading to a pullback in prices, raising questions about whether bearish forces can regain strength [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current weakness in gold prices, indicating that the bullish sentiment may struggle to gain momentum unless a specific support level is established [1] - It suggests that market participants are closely monitoring the price movements to identify potential turning points for gold [1] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of maintaining certain price levels for a stronger bullish outlook in the gold market [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent decline in gold prices, indicating that bullish sentiment may struggle to find a turnaround unless certain price levels are maintained [1] - It suggests that a stable price level is crucial for a potential rebound in the gold market [1]

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 948.5 tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.29 tons from the previous trading day [5] - On July 17, spot gold prices experienced fluctuations, reaching a low of $3,309.76 per ounce, the lowest level since July 10, before closing around $3,338.64 per ounce, down $8.68 or 0.26% [5] - The decline in gold ETF holdings is attributed to the drop in gold prices, which were influenced by market reactions to potential changes in the Federal Reserve leadership [5][6] Group 2 - Recent news indicated that President Trump might soon dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which initially caused a spike in gold prices due to a drop in the US dollar, but this was quickly denied by Trump, leading to a price retreat [5] - The ongoing tension between Powell and Trump is expected to continue supporting the gold market, as potential candidates for the Fed chair position have expressed concerns about the Fed's credibility [5][6] - Economic data showed that US retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, reversing a two-month decline, indicating that consumer spending remains strong despite the impact of Trump's tariff policies [6] Group 3 - Technically, gold is trading within a range of $3,310 to $3,370, with an upward trend indicated by positive technical indicators [6] - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified at $3,365 and $3,377, with a potential challenge to the $3,400 mark if these levels are breached [6] - Conversely, short-term support levels are at $3,320 and $3,000, with further declines potentially targeting $3,280 and $3,250, which is near the July low [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses a rapid decline in gold prices after reaching a high, indicating a cautious approach from bullish investors [1] - There is a suggestion for investors to analyze market trends carefully before making decisions regarding gold investments [1]

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Group 1 - The article discusses the current low-level consolidation of gold prices during the Asian and European trading sessions, indicating that bullish sentiment may be building up [1] - It highlights the need to pay attention to a key resistance level for any potential rebound in gold prices [1]

Core Insights - The recent volatility in the gold market has led to a decline in gold prices, prompting renewed investor interest due to multiple influencing factors such as global economic conditions, geopolitical risks, and investor sentiment [1] Price Decline Analysis - The strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on gold prices, as there is an inverse relationship between gold prices and the dollar [4] - Signs of global economic recovery, driven by increased vaccination rates, have led investors to favor riskier assets like stocks over gold [4] - A reduction in geopolitical tensions has also contributed to lower demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4] Market Trends - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected to continue due to the influence of the dollar, global economic recovery, and geopolitical factors [4] - In the medium to long term, gold's status as a safe-haven asset will remain relevant, especially as central bank policies may lead to currency depreciation risks, potentially increasing demand for gold [4] Investment Recommendations - Investors should closely monitor global economic developments, particularly changes in monetary and fiscal policies of major economies [6] - Diversifying investment risks is crucial, suggesting a mix of gold assets, including physical gold, gold ETFs, and related stocks and funds [6] - Adapting investment strategies based on market trends, such as buying on dips and selling on highs, is recommended to mitigate risks [6] - Attention to geopolitical factors is essential, as they significantly impact gold prices [6] - Long-term value investment in gold should not be overlooked due to its hedging and preservation functions [6] Strategic Considerations - Continuous monitoring of market dynamics is necessary for timely adjustments in investment strategies [7] - Investors should align their investments with their risk tolerance to avoid impulsive decisions [7] - Emphasizing diversified investments, including stocks and funds related to gold, can help lower risks [7] - Long-term investors should maintain confidence in gold's enduring value [7]