近期，委内瑞拉局势风云突变，全世界都在关注，那么到底在委内瑞拉发生了什么？这次事件的影响还 会持续多久？对国际市场有哪些影响？今天我们来讲一讲。 当地时间1月3日凌晨，美国对委内瑞拉发动了大规模军事打击，并强掳现任总统马杜罗及其夫人，将他 们带往美国。美国总统特朗普当天公开表示，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉，直至实现所谓的"安全"过渡。1 月5日，联合国安理会就委内瑞拉局势召开紧急会议，国际社会对这一事件的关注度持续升高。 而更重要的是，委内瑞拉出产的原油属于高硫重质原油，必须经过深度加工才能进入主流燃料和化工市 场，这决定了它在能源结构中更多是一个补充角色，而非决定性力量。 第三，左右国际油价的核心因素依然是供求关系。2025年全球油价就因为供过于求而持续疲软，2026年 这样的格局也难以发生根本变化。而目前全球石油市场供过于求这种格局的形成，主要是产油国之间政 策协同难，加上全球经济不景气导致原油需求减弱，以及光伏、氢能、风能等新能源的快速崛起，都会 导致对原油的需求量减少。因此，委内瑞拉的局势变动对国际油价的影响有限。而从中长期来看，原油 价格仍将被供需基本面压制。 说完原油，我们接下来就来说说投资者关心的另 ...

进入12月，天气渐凉，但中资矿企的并购热情不减，尤其金矿并购市场，异常火热！ 12月15日，洛阳钼业宣布将以10.15 亿美元（约合71.7亿元）的价格收购巴西三个金矿资产（Aurizona金矿、RDM金矿、Bahia综合矿区）的100%权益。 12月12日，为获得南美洲厄瓜多尔的Cascabel项目，江西铜业第三次对英国上市公司SolGold的提出收购报价，总价值提高至约8.42亿英镑（11.3亿美 元）。 12月10日，灵宝黄金宣布以3.7亿澳元(约合人民币17.35亿元)认购澳大利亚目标公司50%+1股股权，将目标公司核心资产-巴布亚新几内亚Simberi(辛贝里) 在产金矿揽入怀中。 今年以来，全球经济增长放缓，地缘政治冲突不断，黄金作为传统的避险资产，受到了投资者的青睐。今年以来，金价年内大涨60%，当地时间12月12 日，伦敦金当日上涨0.47%报4299.29美元/盎司，年初至今涨幅已达63.83%。世界黄金协会数据显示，2025年黄金表现卓越，全年创下逾50次历史新高。 展望2026年，持续的地缘经济不确定性将继续影响黄金市场前景，若当前环境保持不变，金价可能继续维持高位区间波动。 | | 音 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main macro factors supporting gold prices in 2025 are expected to continue into 2026, including global de-dollarization trends, U.S. fiscal pressures, overall macro uncertainty, central bank gold purchases, physical gold ETF demand, and Tether's procurement of gold [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Despite limited room for real interest rate declines, gold remains the only true safe-haven asset in the market [1] - Gold prices are projected to maintain a range-bound consolidation in 2026, which is still positive for the industry [1] Group 2: Mining Stocks - The firm maintains an optimistic outlook for gold mining stocks in 2026, citing attractive valuations and expectations for increased profit margins and higher annual free cash flow from mining companies [1] - Currently, there is no significant cost inflation pressure observed in the industry [1] Group 3: Company Recommendations - Barrick Gold Corporation is identified as the top pick among large-cap gold mining stocks [1] - Alamos Gold is viewed as having significant upside potential, possessing the highest quality asset portfolio among mid-cap miners [1] - Royal Gold is considered undervalued, with expectations for a price correction in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in Q3, with revenue and net profit showing year-on-year growth but a significant quarter-on-quarter decline, primarily due to an unexpected incident affecting copper production [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 18.909 billion yuan, up 7.97% year-on-year but down 6.43% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 984 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.28% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 40.59% [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 53.976 billion yuan, up 17.23% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.679 billion yuan, up 39.18% year-on-year [1]. Production and Sales - In Q3, gold production and sales were 4.62 tons and 4.53 tons, respectively, while copper production and sales were 1.19 million tons and 1.07 million tons, showing a significant year-on-year decline in copper due to an incident at a subsidiary's mining facility [2]. - The company expects production and sales to recover in Q4 following the resumption of operations after the incident [2]. Future Growth Potential - The company is actively conducting mining trials at the Shaling Gold Mine, which is expected to significantly increase gold production once fully operational, with an anticipated annual output of approximately 10 tons [3]. Market Outlook - Despite a recent sharp decline in gold prices, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with the current dip seen as a potential buying opportunity for investors [4]. - The company’s stock performance has shown resilience, indicating a consensus on the long-term value of gold-related assets [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 upwards, with expected profits of 5.672 billion yuan, 7.287 billion yuan, and 9.446 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 40.77% [5]. - The target price has been adjusted to 25.05 yuan, based on a projected PE ratio of 16.7 for 2026, considering the anticipated increase in gold production from the Shaling Gold Mine [5].

Core Insights - The company reported strong growth in key operating metrics for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 14.996 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.23%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.460 billion yuan, up 42.39% [1] - The company's cash flow from operating activities also showed a positive trend, amounting to 3.692 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.93% increase year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 14.996 billion yuan, representing a 24.23% year-on-year growth [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.460 billion yuan, marking a 42.39% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Net cash flow from operating activities reached 3.692 billion yuan, up 22.93% year-on-year [1] Institutional Analysis - Multiple institutions, including Guosheng Securities, Minsheng Securities, and Galaxy Securities, have positively evaluated the company's cost control, resource reserves, and strategic advancement, maintaining "recommend" or "buy" ratings [1] - Minsheng Securities highlighted the company's strong cost control, noting that the unit cost of mined gold was 132.4 yuan per gram in Q3 2025, a 14% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1] - Guoxin Securities emphasized that the company's fully allocated cost for mined gold was 145.19 yuan per gram, showcasing superior cost control compared to other mining companies [1] Resource and Project Development - The company has a strong continuity in gold mining resources, with clear long-term increases in gold reserves, particularly following the acquisition of exploration rights in Yunnan [2] - The company acquired exploration rights for gold mines in the Dagangba area and the Mengwen area in Yunnan, covering 35.6 square kilometers and 20.38 square kilometers, respectively [2] - The Osino project in Namibia is expected to significantly support future production growth, with plant construction set to begin in Q4 2025 and production anticipated in the first half of 2027, targeting an annual gold output of 5 tons [2] International Strategy - The company submitted an H-share listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in September 2025, which is expected to enhance its global strategic layout and optimize its capital structure [2] - Minsheng Securities noted that the H-share listing plan will facilitate the acceleration of overseas business development and strengthen the company's industry position [2] - Lianhe Securities believes that this move will improve corporate governance and core competitiveness [2] Market Outlook - Despite recent fluctuations in gold prices, Haitong Securities maintains that gold remains the most suitable safe-haven asset amid global order restructuring, with short-term declines not affecting long-term trends [2] - Lianhe Securities projects a high-level oscillation in gold prices for Q4, indicating a continued bullish outlook in the medium to long term [2]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Gold Exchange is set to officially replace the Hong Kong Gold and Silver Exchange, aiming to become one of the world's top three gold exchanges starting January 1, 2025 [3][5] - The government is encouraged to reserve space in the Northern Metropolis for gold storage and refining facilities to support the development of Hong Kong as an international gold trading center [3][5] - The exchange plans to increase gold reserves by 2,000 tons over the next three years, highlighting the importance of physical gold storage for the development of various financial instruments [3][5] Industry Developments - The government is leading initiatives to establish a central clearing system for gold in Hong Kong, which could enhance the credibility of the market, although there are concerns about potential uncertainties from government involvement [7] - The involvement of existing market stakeholders and the Shanghai Gold Exchange is deemed crucial for promoting connectivity and strengthening Hong Kong's position as an international gold trading hub [7] - The current international market uncertainties, including the trend of de-dollarization and central banks increasing gold reserves, are seen as factors that could drive gold prices to new heights [12]

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a decline, with London gold spot prices around $4,083 per ounce, and COMEX gold down approximately 1% [1] - The A-share market saw weakness in the precious metals sector, with the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) dropping 0.68% and achieving a trading volume exceeding 68 million yuan [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has seen significant inflows, with a net inflow of 646 million yuan from October 21 to 23, and a single-day peak inflow of over 620 million yuan on October 22, making it the top performer among similar ETFs [1] Group 2 - According to media reports, gold is increasingly being viewed as a risk-free asset, potentially replacing U.S. Treasury bonds, as highlighted by Ray Dalio's comments [2] - The World Gold Council reported that global official gold reserves reached $38,642 billion, slightly surpassing the U.S. Treasury's foreign-held debt balance for the first time [2] - Huatai Securities emphasized that gold remains the most suitable safe-haven asset, suggesting that short-term declines do not affect the long-term outlook for gold, and that market consensus on the long-term value of gold-related assets remains unchanged [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in gold prices, which fell over 6.3%, is attributed to optimistic market expectations regarding the end of the U.S. government shutdown and potential trade agreements, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3]. Market Performance - On October 21, gold opened at $4,354.42 per ounce, reached a high of $4,375.09, and then fell to a low of $4,082.92, closing at $4,124.76, marking a daily decline of $229.66 or 5.27% [3]. - The market's optimism about the U.S. government shutdown ending and trade negotiations has strengthened the dollar, further pressuring gold prices [3][5]. Future Outlook - The expectation is that gold prices will continue to decline until the government shutdown is resolved, with a focus on potential support levels for re-entry into long positions [5]. - Historical patterns suggest that the current trade optimism is temporary, and once the shutdown ends, economic data may worsen, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which could support a rebound in gold prices [5][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold has encountered resistance near the upward trend line and is due for a technical correction, with support expected around $3,945 [5]. - The weekly chart shows a significant drop of nearly $300, confirming the effectiveness of the upward trend pressure, with expectations of a potential decline to around $3,800 [7][8]. - Daily analysis indicates that gold prices have fallen below the 5-10 day moving averages, but there is potential for a rebound if prices stabilize around the Bollinger Band midline and the 30-day moving average [10]. Trading Strategy - Key levels to watch include support at $4,050 or $3,950 and resistance at $4,155 or $4,230 for gold [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $47.30 or $46.60, with resistance at $49.00 or $49.80 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The gold prices have reached a historical high during the National Day holiday, with spot gold prices nearing $3920 per ounce, leading to a surge in consumer interest and sales in the Shenzhen gold market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The spot gold price hit $3905.27 on October 6, marking a 0.50% increase for the day, and has risen significantly in a short period, crossing the $3800 mark just days prior [4]. - The sales of gold jewelry have also seen a rise, with major brands reporting record prices for gold per gram, such as Chow Sang Sang at 1136 yuan and Chow Tai Fook at 1129 yuan [4]. - The "tourism + gold purchasing" model has emerged, with many visitors from various regions, including Beijing and Shanghai, coming to Shenzhen specifically for gold shopping during the holiday [4][6]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - There is a noticeable trend towards "lightweight" gold consumption, with small-weight gold items accounting for about 60% of sales, primarily among younger consumers aged 20-30 [7][18]. - The popularity of "gold-plated silver" jewelry has increased, offering a more affordable alternative to pure gold while maintaining a similar appearance [11]. - Consumers are increasingly seeking product verification, with many opting for testing services to ensure the quality of their gold purchases [15]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite the strong sales during the holiday, many merchants express concerns about future profitability and cash flow due to the volatility in gold prices [19]. - Institutions remain optimistic about the future of gold prices, with forecasts from firms like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predicting prices could reach $4000-$4500 per ounce by 2026 [20]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely to sustain gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [20].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have reached new historical highs, with London gold surpassing $3,895 per ounce and COMEX gold exceeding $3,900 per ounce, driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][8]. Market Trends - The rising international gold prices have led to record high prices for gold jewelry in the consumer market, coinciding with the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, resulting in a small surge in gold consumption [3][4]. - In Shenzhen's Shui Bei market, the price of gold jewelry has increased to approximately 888 yuan per gram, up from around 796 yuan per gram in early September, indicating a significant price rise [6]. Retail Strategies - Retailers are facing challenges in inventory management due to fluctuating gold prices, adopting a strategy of purchasing gold based on sales to mitigate risks associated with high inventory costs [6]. - The profit margins for gold jewelry vary, with margins for weight-based pricing typically between 10% to 20%, while "one-price" gold jewelry can have margins of 30% to 40% [6]. Consumer Behavior - Despite the rising prices, many consumers are in a wait-and-see mode, with some retailers noting that the number of customers has not significantly increased, although there is potential for higher foot traffic during the holiday [6][7]. - The gap between gold sales prices and buyback prices has widened, with the current buyback price around 857 yuan per gram, indicating a price difference of over 30 yuan, compared to a previous range of 10-15 yuan [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices may continue to rise, with UBS forecasting prices to reach $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by factors such as central bank purchases and increased ETF investments [8]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $4,000 per ounce for gold by mid-2026, suggesting that if a small percentage of U.S. Treasury holders shift their investments to gold, prices could potentially approach $5,000 per ounce [8].