1月4日，上证指数2025全年涨超18% 就投资者的盈利从投资者盈利状况、仓位配置及对2026年市场预 期三个维度进行调查。结果显示： 1）2025年市场整体呈现结构性机会，62.5%投资者把握住行情，实现账户增值，约四分之一投资者未 能实现盈利。 2）2025年投资者整体持仓积极性较高，风险偏好分化不明显，多数以满仓或半仓参与市场。 3）投资者对2026年市场走势预期分散，整体偏向谨慎乐观，66%投资者看涨2026年A股。 盈利情况：超六成投资者实现盈利 2025年市场整体呈现结构性机会，多数投资者把握住行情，实现账户增值。62.5%的投资者在2025年获 得正收益。 2026年市场预期：谨慎乐观，分歧明显 投资者对2026年市场走势预期分散，整体偏向谨慎乐观。看涨至5000点：24.60%，少数投资者预期较 高涨幅。看涨至4500点：41.4%，占比最高，显示温和乐观情绪。不确定：33.9%，约三分之一投资者 对后市持观望态度。 2025年投资者整体盈利面较好，超六成实现正收益；仓位以满仓和半仓为主，显示参与意愿较强；对 2026年市场预期虽存在分歧，但多数持温和看涨态度。建议投资者继续关注市场结构变化， ...

Core Viewpoint - In the context of the investment wave towards Hong Kong stocks in 2025, a group of fund managers focusing on core technology assets in the A-share market have achieved impressive performance by deeply cultivating their areas of expertise [1] Group 1: Performance of A-share Funds - The top 20 A-share fund products in terms of performance this year have returns ranging from 125% to 236% [2] - These top-performing funds have generally maintained low exposure to Hong Kong stocks, with most having less than 10% allocation or zero holdings, ensuring a high concentration of core A-share assets [2][3] - The strategy of focusing on A-shares rather than diversifying into Hong Kong stocks reflects a rational assessment of market pricing efficiency and the fund managers' comparative advantages [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - A-share market pricing reacts more directly and fully to local hot sectors, allowing for better capture of market opportunities by maintaining high positions in core A-share assets [4] - The low allocation to Hong Kong stocks among top-performing A-share funds indicates the importance of adapting investment strategies to different market characteristics [5] - Funds that heavily invested in Hong Kong stocks without adjusting their strategies often underperformed, highlighting the need for a deep understanding of market rules [6] Group 3: Differences in Investment Logic - A-share fund managers tend to focus on growth potential and sector performance, while professional Hong Kong fund managers prioritize financial quality, cash flow, and dividend potential [7] - The contrasting investment logic between A-share and Hong Kong funds is evident, as some high-growth stocks favored by A-share managers may not align with the preferences of Hong Kong investors [7][9] Group 4: Insights from Professional Fund Managers - Professional Hong Kong fund managers emphasize the importance of understanding liquidity risks and the unique pricing mechanisms of the Hong Kong market [8] - They suggest that A-share fund managers need to invest additional effort to learn and adapt to the characteristics of the Hong Kong market [8] - The focus on high dividend potential and quality growth in Hong Kong stocks offers A-share fund managers alternative strategies for expanding their investment capabilities [9]

在兴业证券2026年度投资策略会策略分论坛上，兴业证券首席策略分析师张启尧积极看好2026年A股市 场投资机会。展望2026年，外部来看，海外对国内市场的负面冲击有限，反倒是全球AI产业趋势的共 振、以及宽松的流动性和弱美元有望提振A股。内部来看，GDP平减指数和名义增长的修复方向均相对 明确，名义经济修复、价格回升有望支撑基本面进一步改善，国内企业盈利修复或将成为最大的亮点。 资金面上，无论是国内居民财富向股市新一轮的再配置，还是主动权益基金的超额回归、险资和国家队 等中长期资金的坚定入市，以及外资回流中国资产，这些资金趋势上的积极变化均有望在2026年得到更 为深入的演绎，并进一步形成正向反馈。（21世纪经济报道） ...

相关机构表示，短期受海外股市风险偏好波动影响，市场波动较大，长期牛市趋势不改。基本面维 度，2025年三季度全A盈利改善，尤其科技板块业绩亮眼，反映产业趋势仍在延续。在"反内卷"坚定推 动下，物价水平也有望持续回升；资金面维度，当前A股资金仍处于流入状态，对估值形成支撑。情绪 面维度，上周各大宽基指数IV仍在下行，市场情绪持续向好。感兴趣的投资者可以关注中证A500ETF （159338），规模位居同类前列。 注：市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构 成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。指数历史走势仅供参考，不代表投资意见，不预 示未来。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 近期市场波动放大，资金通过宽基ETF布局大盘，中证A500ETF（159338）近4日获资金加仓超12 亿元。 中证A500ETF（159338）跟踪中证A500指数，行业分布全面且均衡，实现100%行业覆盖，且做了 行业中性处理，更能代表A股市场。 另外，成分股方面，中证A500指数成分股包括约50%传统价值行业+约50%新兴 ...

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts experienced declines last week, with the CSI 1000 index futures showing the largest drop of -5.80%, while the SSE 50 index futures had the smallest decline of -2.72% [3][11] - Average trading volumes for the current, next, and quarterly contracts increased across all contracts, with the SSE 50 showing the largest increase of 18.96% and the CSI 500 the smallest at 13.60% [3][11] - The annualized basis rates for the current contracts as of last Friday were -4.13%, -10.17%, -12.27%, and -1.89% for IF, IC, IM, and IH respectively, indicating a deepening of the basis for IF and IH while IC and IM saw a narrowing [3][11] Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - As of last Friday, the cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts compared to the next contracts were at the 96.70%, 90.20%, 89.30%, and 89.10% percentiles for IF, IC, IM, and IH respectively, indicating a historical distribution skewed to the right [4][12] - Currently, there are no arbitrage opportunities for the IF main contract based on the closing prices, as the required basis rates for both long and short arbitrage strategies do not meet the necessary thresholds [4][12] Group 3: Dividend Forecasts and Market Expectations - The estimated impacts on index points for the next year from the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices are 77.00, 82.49, 68.09, and 64.38 respectively [4][12] - Following the end of the main dividend distribution period, the influence of dividends on the four major index futures contracts is minimal, with a notable increase in market risk aversion reflected in the declines of all four contracts [4][12] Group 4: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - A consensus among seven brokerages indicates that the A-share market will continue to experience fluctuations in the short term, but there is potential for upward movement in the medium term [5][36] - The AI industry chain, upstream resource sectors, and high-dividend assets are viewed positively, benefiting from industry trends, improved supply-demand dynamics, and policy support [5][36]

Market Overview - On November 18, the A-share market opened lower and experienced slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3944 points[2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3939.81 points, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13080.49 points, down 0.92%[7] - Total trading volume for both markets was 19,462 billion yuan, above the median of the past three years[3] Sector Performance - Cultural media, software development, internet services, and education sectors performed well, while battery, coal, steel, and energy metals sectors lagged[3] - Over 70% of stocks in the two markets declined, with internet services and cultural media leading the gains[7] Valuation Metrics - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.36 times and 49.18 times, respectively, above the median levels of the past three years[3] - The market is currently in a phase of consolidation around the 4000-point level, indicating potential for medium to long-term positioning[3] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions and avoid chasing highs or panic selling, while closely monitoring macroeconomic data and policy changes[3] - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in software development, cultural media, internet services, and semiconductors[3] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic downturns, domestic policy changes, and macroeconomic disturbances[4]

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests a moderate increase in positions during the current short-term adjustment phase, with a focus on balancing investments across different market segments [1]. Market Performance - The market showed a mixed performance last week, with the CSI 300 index declining by 0.43%, the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.11%, and the CSI 500 index rising by 1.00% [3]. - The technology sector remained strong in the first half of the week but faced adjustments in the latter half, influenced by overseas market sentiments [3]. Economic Indicators - Recent official PMI data fell below market expectations, indicating that the Chinese economy has not entered a new growth phase [3]. - The macroeconomic data released in mid-October showed signs of a single-month economic rebound, but the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [3]. - The third-quarter earnings reports revealed a divergence in performance: the real economy showed near 0% growth, while market investment-related sectors benefited from a strong Q3, leading to significant earnings increases [3]. Sector Analysis - There is a notable divergence between technology and consumer sectors, with technology maintaining double-digit growth while consumer sectors experienced double-digit declines, a rare occurrence in A-share history [3]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in October was in line with market expectations, although uncertainties regarding future rate cuts remain [3]. Technical Analysis - The market is witnessing a return of incremental capital, with both institutional and retail investors showing marginally positive participation, suggesting a potential challenge to new highs after a two-month consolidation [4]. - The recommendation for the main board is to moderately increase positions to a medium level, as the third-quarter results align with previous macroeconomic forecasts [4]. - For the small and mid-cap sectors, the suggestion is also to moderately increase positions to a medium level, with a shift towards a balanced market style [4]. - The short-term momentum model indicates a focus on the home appliance industry [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the positive outlook from foreign investment giants on the A-share market, suggesting that recent market adjustments present a good opportunity for long-term investment, particularly in technology stocks [3][5][6]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Institutions' Perspectives - Major foreign investment firms like Fidelity, Allianz, and Invesco have expressed optimistic views on the Chinese market, indicating that the recent market adjustments are beneficial for long-term positioning [5][6]. - Allianz Fund highlights ten reasons why global investors should pay attention to Chinese stocks, focusing on aspects such as technological strength, monetary policy, capital flows, valuations, and macroeconomic conditions [5][6]. Group 2: Technology Sector as a Key Investment Focus - The technology sector is identified as a crucial investment theme for the future of the Chinese market, with recent surveys showing significant interest from foreign institutions in tech companies [7][8]. - Data from October indicates that foreign institutions have primarily focused their research on technology sectors, with companies like Rongbai Technology receiving attention from 13 foreign institutions [8][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Opportunities - The current market environment is characterized by a structural upward trend driven by profit growth, supported by favorable policies and a macroeconomic backdrop that remains moderately loose [5][6]. - The resilience and diversification of China's exports are noted as factors supporting the improvement of the domestic economic fundamentals and market sentiment [6][10]. Group 4: Valuation and Competitive Positioning - Many Chinese tech stocks are considered undervalued despite the market's recovery this year, with strong fundamentals and robust management teams being highlighted as positive factors [9][10]. - The dual capabilities of Chinese tech companies, as both fast followers and original innovators, position them well for both domestic growth and global competition, suggesting a strategic opportunity for investment in this sector [10].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, but foreign investment giants like Fidelity, Allianz, and Invesco are optimistic about its long-term potential, particularly in technology stocks [1][2] - External factors causing market adjustments are seen as opportunities for long-term positioning, with a focus on structural growth driven by earnings [1][3] - The current market environment is characterized by a favorable macroeconomic policy and a revaluation of Chinese assets, enhancing the long-term investability of the A-share market [1] Group 2 - Allianz Fund highlights ten reasons for global investors to embrace A-shares, emphasizing China's technological advancements and diverse investment opportunities in sectors like advanced driving assistance systems and electric vehicles [2] - Invesco's research indicates that technology stocks remain a key investment theme, with significant interest from foreign institutions in companies like Rongbai Technology and Weili Transmission [3] - Fidelity International notes that Chinese technology stocks are gaining attractiveness, supported by strong fundamentals and management teams, despite the market's recovery this year [3]

Core Insights - The domestic stock market in China has seen significant growth, with the total market capitalization of listed companies surpassing 100 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 104.16 trillion yuan by the end of August [1][4] Group 1: Market Overview - As of August 31, there are 5,435 listed companies in the domestic stock market, with the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges having 2,286, 2,875, and 274 companies respectively [2] - The number of listed companies has increased compared to July, with Shanghai adding 1, Shenzhen adding 2, and Beijing adding 5 [2] - The manufacturing sector accounts for 68% of the total number of listed companies, while the information transmission, software, and IT services sector follows [2] Group 2: Market Capitalization - The total market capitalization increased by 9.29 trillion yuan from July, marking a 9.8% month-on-month growth, the highest in nearly four years [4] - The market capitalization of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing exchanges reached 61.93 trillion yuan, 41.32 trillion yuan, and 0.91 trillion yuan respectively, with significant increases across all exchanges [4] - There are currently 7 companies with a market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion yuan, representing 0.13% of the total number of listed companies [4] Group 3: IPO and International Expansion - In August, 8 new companies were listed, raising a total of 6.463 billion yuan, with over 70 domestic companies having gone public overseas this year [2][3] - More than 50 A-share companies have submitted applications to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, indicating a strong trend of Chinese companies seeking international financing [3] - The shift towards international markets is seen as a key strategy for maintaining resilient growth amid global economic uncertainties [3] Group 4: Investment Trends - The increase in market capitalization is closely linked to improving investor sentiment in the A-share market, with a noticeable shift in asset allocation towards equities [5] - There is a gradual attraction of external funds into the stock market, as evidenced by a slowdown in the growth of bond funds and a decline in money market fund sizes [6]