证券研究报告 | 2025年12月30日 策略专题 布局核心资产正当时——中证 A500 指数投资价值分析 核心结论：①牛市上涨时空未显著、政策环境依然温暖、基本面有望回升修 复、岁末年初增量资金入市，当前正是增配 A 股的战略窗口期。②A500 指数 作为中国核心资产代表，兼顾传统及新兴产业，具备估值、盈利、分红等相 对优势，当下对其的资金配置需求有望提高。③广发中证 A500ETF 在紧密跟 踪标的指数的基础上，既能实现超越标的指数的产品业绩，在跟踪误差控制 上同样表现突出。 | 中小板/月涨跌幅(%) | | | 8264.98/4.65 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 创业板/月涨跌幅(%) | | | 3222.61/5.57 | | AH | 股价差指数 | | 123.24 | | A | 股总/流通市值 | (万亿元) | 97.52/89.58 | | 市场走势 | | | | 当前是增配 A 股的战略机遇期。展望 2026 年，宏观和股市制度依然温暖， 国内基本面有望步入上行通道，市场上涨仍有较大空间。从上涨时空看，本 轮牛市上涨时空较历史仍有空间。这一轮牛市始 ...

在2025年南下港股投资浪潮涌动的背景下，一批坚守A股核心科技资产的基金经理，凭借对能力圈的深 度耕耘，交出了亮眼的业绩答卷。 Wind数据显示，排名年内全市场业绩前20强的A股基金产品收益率介于125%至236%之间。引人注目的 是，这些业绩领跑者普遍并未跟随市场热点大举南下，而是选择将核心精力聚焦于A股市场，其港股配 置比例大多低于10%或保持零持仓，从而确保了A股核心资产的高仓位集中度。 业内人士认为，这一现象反映出，对多数基金经理而言，在跨市场经验尚需积累的阶段，立足自身所 长、深耕熟悉的领域，往往是实现业绩突破的稳健路径。港股作为离岸市场，其定价审美逻辑与A股存 在差异，对A股基金经理而言，可能更像是一道需要认真对待的"附加题"，而非人人皆可得分的"基础 题"。 十强基金聚焦A股核心机遇 在2025年的市场环境下，全市场业绩领先的一批基金，用优异的回报率展现了专注的力量。Wind数据 显示，排名年内业绩前20强的A股基金，几乎清一色地对港股保持了较低的配置比例。业内人士认为， 这一策略并非偶然，而是基金经理基于对不同市场定价效率和自身比较优势的理性权衡。 以年内收益率一度跃升至133%的广发成长领航 ...

Group 1 - In 2026, the U.S. is expected to continue its interest rate cuts, while A-shares may maintain a "slow bull" market driven by sectors like AI, semiconductors, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy [1][6] - The A-share market is becoming more institutionalized and focused on leading companies in the technology and AI sectors, while other sectors like consumption and real estate are experiencing a lack of funding and continued price stagnation [6][8] - The investment landscape in 2026 will be shaped by two main factors: monetary easing and the practical application of AI, with concerns about AI's production efficiency not covering computing costs [8] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market in 2026 is expected to remain stable, influenced by domestic macroeconomic fundamentals and overseas dollar liquidity [9] - The 2026 economic policy framework emphasizes practical effects and long-term health, focusing on expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, risk mitigation, and social welfare [15] - The real estate market is shifting from "incremental thinking" to "stock thinking," with opportunities arising from deep optimization and value reassessment of existing cities [16] Group 3 - The gold market is expected to remain bullish, with prices projected to reach between $4,800 and $5,000 per ounce, driven by a declining interest rate environment and ongoing central bank purchases [22][23] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged, and the low-altitude economy is facing challenges related to battery costs, which may catalyze advancements in battery technology [21] - Silver prices have increased significantly, driven by a combination of inventory crises, industrial demand, and capital accumulation, with a focus on maintaining a calm approach to investment during periods of market volatility [26][28]

Core Insights - In the context of the investment wave towards Hong Kong stocks in 2025, a group of fund managers focusing on core technology assets in the A-share market has achieved impressive performance, with returns ranging from 125% to 236% for the top 20 funds [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Strategy - The top-performing A-share funds have maintained low exposure to Hong Kong stocks, with many keeping their allocation below 10% or at zero, allowing for a high concentration in A-share core assets [1][2]. - For instance, the Guangfa Growth Navigator fund reduced its Hong Kong stock allocation from approximately 28% in June to about 4% by the end of the third quarter, effectively avoiding volatility in the Hong Kong market [2]. - Other funds, such as the Yongying Technology Smart Selection fund, also maintained low Hong Kong stock allocations, focusing primarily on the A-share market [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Logic - A-share market pricing reacts more directly to local hot sectors, making it easier to capture market opportunities by maintaining a high allocation to core A-share assets [3]. - The difference in market characteristics between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks necessitates a tailored investment strategy, as A-share funds often struggle when applying their strategies to the Hong Kong market without proper adjustments [4]. - Funds that heavily invested in Hong Kong stocks without adapting their strategies have generally underperformed, highlighting the importance of understanding market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Investment Philosophy - A-share fund managers tend to focus on growth potential and sector performance, while professional Hong Kong funds prioritize financial quality, cash flow, and dividend potential [5][6]. - For example, the Hong Kong stock Jiangnan Buyi, valued at approximately HKD 10 billion, has been recognized for its strong cash flow and dividend history, which A-share funds have overlooked [6]. - The contrasting investment philosophies between A-share and Hong Kong funds illustrate the need for A-share managers to adapt their approaches when considering investments in the Hong Kong market [5][6]. Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - A-share fund managers need to approach Hong Kong investments with caution, recognizing the significant influence of global liquidity and market sentiment on pricing [7][8]. - Understanding the unique pricing mechanisms and investor structures in the Hong Kong market is crucial for A-share fund managers venturing into this space [7][8]. - The potential for long-term returns exists in the Hong Kong market, particularly through identifying high-dividend yielding assets, which can provide an alternative strategy for A-share fund managers [8].

沪深交易所数据显示，A股散户亏损率常年居高不下。很多人抱着"赚快钱"的心态入市，最后却沦为"韭菜"。其实散户输钱，大多栽在这六个可防可控的坑 里。 第四个坑，迷信小道消息当"接盘侠"。40%的亏损源于大V荐股、股吧传言。机构早就把公开信息消化完毕，散户跟风入场时，往往站在股价高位。数据显 示，靠消息炒股成为"接盘侠"的概率超80%。 第五个坑，加杠杆赌一把满盘皆输。使用杠杆的散户爆仓概率高达78%。涨时贪心加杠杆追高，跌时被强制平仓加速亏损，不仅本金亏光，还可能倒欠平台 钱，一次失误就彻底出局。 第六个坑，不懂基本面盲目跟风。70%的散户看不懂PE、PB等核心指标，只看股价涨跌决策。忽视行业周期和公司质地，退潮时接盘主跌板块，踩雷风险 比专业投资者高3倍。就像有人听"新能源有利好"就满仓，连公司负债率都不看，利好兑现后只能被套。 其实散户输钱的核心，是"纪律缺失+认知不足"。前三个坑都属操作层面问题，守住这三道防线，就能避开80%的亏损陷阱。 想少亏钱，关键在建立简单体系：先设止损止盈线，比如亏15%无条件离场、赚20%分批止盈；再界定能力圈，上班族别追热点打板，深耕熟悉领域更靠 谱；最好别满仓，留30%现金 ...

所以，我的观点是：大宗商品市场的"三国演义"，正在清晰地勾勒一幅"弱现实、强博弈、寻方向"的全 球经济图景。 传统增长引擎（油、铜）动力不足，而避险和抗通胀的资产（金）在默默构筑防线。这 对于我们A股投资者来说，是一个重要的宏观背景板。 那么，策略上我们应该如何应对？我的建议是三个关键词：顺势、避锋、观察。 第一， "顺势" ，就是关注原油等上游成本下降带来的潜在机会。化工产业链的中下游、交通运输等板 块，可能会因为成本压力缓解而迎来利润修复的窗口期，这里面有值得挖掘的阿尔法机会。 朋友们，如果让你用一种颜色来形容当前的经济，你会选什么？我想很多人会选择"灰蒙蒙"的。今天早 上看到大宗商品市场的走势，这种感觉就更明显了。被称为"工业血液"的原油，价格跌到了三年多来的 低点；被誉为"经济筋骨"的铜，也显露疲态；而唯独被称为"避险铠甲"的黄金，稳稳地站在高位。这三 样东西，它们本应同频共振，现在却走出了"分家"的行情。这"三国演义"的背后，到底在诉说什么样的 经济故事？对我们A股投资者又意味着什么？咱们一起来盘一盘。 咱们先看跌得最显眼的"老大哥"——原油。WTI原油价格盘中一度跌破了每桶55美元，这个价格是20 ...

【大河财立方消息】中央经济工作会议对资本市场有何指引？12月11日，招商证券发布研报称，基于中央经济工作会议对明年的 政策定调及各项经济工作安排部署，认为中央经济工作会议对A股明年的投资指引主要包括以下几个方面： （1）从宏观层面来看，政策整体延续了相对积极的政策基调。具体来看，财政政策取向积极，赤字率安排或维持在4%；货币政策 提到了，"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"意味着，在多项货币政策目标中，促进经济发展、物价回 升的优先级较高。明年A股有望继续迎来相对宽松的政策环境。 （2）从产业视角来看，重点关注"推动投资止跌回稳"下，明年重大项目的安排：本次会议肯定了当前投资增速面临下滑的问题， 部署推动投资止跌回稳。明年是十五五的开局之年，在这样的背景下，重大项目有望成为投资端的主要抓手，建议重点关注重大 项目相关预期。 （3）消费端方面，会议重视了经济中需求相对供给较弱的问题，并提及将制定实施城乡居民增收计划，是积极的信号。但值得注 意的是，今年并未提到"加力扩围"，因此两新政策的资金支持力度可能难以迎来扩张。 （4）从过往市场表现经验来看，会后7天大盘风格往往相对占优。尤其是近5年 ...

Group 1 - The recent global market turmoil is attributed to multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's mixed signals on interest rate cuts, concerns over AI sector sustainability, and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [4][5][6]. - A-shares and H-shares are viewed as having long-term strategic opportunities despite recent adjustments, with expectations for policy support and foreign capital inflow remaining intact [8][9]. - The outlook for A-shares and H-shares is positive, with analysts suggesting that the current market environment presents a window for investment [8][9][10]. Group 2 - Gold is expected to remain a strong asset in the medium to long term, supported by global monetary expansion and increasing central bank purchases [11][12][13]. - Analysts predict that the global stock market will continue to trend upwards, driven by liquidity and risk appetite, although caution is advised regarding inflation and geopolitical risks [14][15][16]. - The oil market is anticipated to experience a range-bound trading pattern, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [17][18][19]. Group 3 - A-shares are considered to have superior investment value, with a focus on high-growth sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing, while also incorporating defensive strategies [20][21]. - The investment landscape for 2026 is expected to favor A-shares, H-shares, gold, and short-term U.S. Treasuries, as global liquidity conditions remain favorable [21][22]. - Attention should be paid to liquidity and geopolitical risks, particularly in light of potential economic data releases and the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [23][24][25].

Group 1 - The article highlights that this week has been the worst for US tech stocks since April, with retail investors not engaging in bottom-fishing as they did previously [1] - Retail investors have shown a significant decline in interest in "MEME" stocks and recent IPOs, with these stocks dropping 10% from recent highs, indicating weakening buying pressure [1] - The article suggests that US investors are becoming more mature and cautious, contrasting with domestic investors who may underestimate the risks associated with the US stock market [1] Group 2 - The October CPI data shows a 0.2% increase both year-on-year and month-on-month, indicating a potential recovery in consumer prices, although the overall trend remains low [2] - The highest CPI increase over the past year was 0.7%, with most fluctuations between 0.1% and 0.2%, suggesting that consumer prices are not significantly rising [2][3] - The decline in pork prices by 16% and egg prices by 11.6% indicates a reduction in demand, influenced by the weakening of the scale effect previously driven by the real estate sector [3][4] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that the current low CPI fluctuations should not be interpreted as a sign of economic decline, but rather as a characteristic of the economic transition period [5] - The traditional consumption sectors, such as liquor and food and beverage, may face challenges due to the current economic conditions, necessitating innovation and new market strategies [5] - In the A-share market, there is a perception that the index may struggle to reach 4000 points in the short term, with investors focusing more on personal profit rather than index performance [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent announcements of fund subscription limits are aimed at controlling product scale to protect the interests of existing investors and improve annual performance rankings [1][5]. Fund Subscription Limits - Numerous funds have recently announced subscription limits, with some suspending subscriptions entirely to maintain stability and protect investor interests [2][4]. - For instance, Hengyue Fund suspended subscriptions for its Hengyue Balanced Preferred Mixed Fund starting November 5, citing the need to protect fund shareholders [2]. - Citic Prudential Fund adjusted its large subscription limits to 10 million yuan to ensure stable fund operations [2]. - Other funds, such as Yongying Fund and Fuguo Fund, have also set daily subscription limits of 500,000 yuan and 1 million yuan respectively [2]. Performance and Market Trends - Several funds that have implemented subscription limits have shown impressive performance this year, with returns such as 51.24% for Hengyue Balanced Preferred Mixed Fund A and 106.39% for Yongying Ruiheng A [4]. - The A-share market's continuous rise has attracted more funds, leading to rapid scale expansion, prompting fund companies to limit subscriptions to maintain smooth operations [4][5]. Industry Insights - Industry insiders suggest that limiting subscriptions is a common practice to maintain fund performance and protect existing investors, especially as year-end approaches [5]. - The trend of subscription limits is not solely driven by year-end performance rankings but is also a response to the long-term assessment rules in the fund industry [5]. Future Investment Outlook - According to招商基金, the A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend, with recommendations for balanced allocation and increased investment in low-position sectors [7]. - Minsheng Jianyin Fund anticipates a sustained upward trend in the market, with a focus on value styles and sector differentiation in the fourth quarter [7][8]. - Jin Ying Fund advises a balanced approach to industry allocation, focusing on technology and value sectors with strong performance expectations [8].