（原标题：智利央行提高2026年GDP增长预期） 智利《三点钟报》12月17日报道，在最新发布的《货币政策报告》中，智利央行将 2025年GDP增长锁定为2.4%，2026年由9月的1.75%—2.75%提高至2%—3%，2027年维 持1.5%－2.5%区间。报告认为，除矿业部门外，国家经济活动总体表现符合预期，市 场需求较前活跃。其中固定资产形成总额增长超预期，尤以机械设备部分表现突出， 主因是大型矿产与能源项目继续发挥助推作用。预计2025年智利固定资产投资将增长 7%，2026年4.9%，2027年3.1%。私人消费复苏向好，2025—2026年或实现2.5%的增 长，2027年2%。劳动就业市场小幅改善，但失业率仍高于历史平均水平。2025年全年 通胀率或降至3.5%，2026年3.2%。报告将中性货币政策利率锁定在3.75%—4.75%间， 预测分析时取4.25%中值作为参考。 ...

当地时间12月10日，美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)公布最新利率决议，降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间从3.75%—4.00%降至3.50%—3.75%， 符合市场预期。这是美联储今年以来第三次降息，年内累计已下调75个基点。 美联储还决定从12月12日起的30天内购买400亿美元国债，以维持充足的准备金供应。 值得注意的是，此次利率决议以9人同意，3人反对通过，这是自2019年来首次，显示美联储内部分歧加剧。其中，2人投票支持不降息，特朗普"钦点"的 理事米兰希望降息50个基点。 最新公布的点阵图显示，明年的降息动作将较今年明显放缓，预计会有一次25个基点的降息。 美国总统特朗普仍对本次利率决议不满，表示降息幅度太小，本可以更大。 美联储公布利率决议后，美股三大指数上涨，截至当日收盘，道指涨1.05%，报48057.75点；标普500指数涨0.67%，报6886.68点；纳斯达克指数上涨 0.33%，报23654.15点。 失业率与通胀均存在"风险" 美联储声明指出，FOMC致力于实现长期最大就业目标，并将长期通胀率维持在2%。经济前景的不确定性依然较高。委员会密切关注其双重使命面临的 双向风险， ...

Economic Growth Forecast - The European Commission has revised Slovenia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.0% to 1.0% while maintaining the 2026 forecast at 2.4% [1] - Slovenia's GDP growth rate is expected to further increase to 2.6% in 2027 [2] Inflation and Employment - Inflation rates are projected to reach 2.5% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, both higher by 0.4 percentage points than previous forecasts [1] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.4% in 2025 and 3.5% in both 2026 and 2027 [2] Private and Public Spending - Private and public spending in Slovenia is anticipated to strengthen in the second half of the year, driven by winter or Christmas bonuses for employees [1] - Public investment is expected to remain high in 2026, supported by the European recovery and resilience fund [1] Wage Growth - Wage growth is projected to be 7.9% in 2025, followed by 5.7% in 2026 and 5.4% in 2027, influenced by public sector wage increases and labor shortages [2] Trade Balance - The contribution of foreign trade balance to Slovenia's economic growth is expected to remain neutral by the end of 2027, with exports continuing to grow due to increased demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Slovenia's GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating a slower economic recovery than previously expected [1] Economic Growth Forecast - Slovenia's GDP is projected to grow by 0.8% in 2025, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast [1] - The growth forecast for 2026 has been lowered by 0.1 percentage points to 2.2%, with a further increase to 2.3% expected in 2027 [1] - The economy experienced a contraction in Q1 of this year but rebounded in Q2 and Q3, with an overall growth rate of 0.8% anticipated for the year [1] Inflation and Long-term Projections - If food and energy price increases slow down, inflation is expected to stabilize around 2% by 2030 [1] - Mid-term GDP growth is expected to stabilize at approximately 2.1% [1] Structural Challenges - The IMF highlights ongoing structural reform challenges, including the need for improved efficiency in the public sector and tax system [1] - Slovenia needs to find additional funding sources for pension and long-term care systems [1] - Key challenges include labor shortages, administrative barriers, enhancing the innovation environment, and providing incentives for promising businesses, necessitating increased investment to boost productivity [1]

Group 1 - Moody's has raised Brazil's GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2% to 2.1% [1] - Brazil's GDP growth rates for 2026 and 2027 are expected to remain at 2% due to economic diversification and export growth [1] - China is expected to remain a significant market for Brazil's commodity exports [1]

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Brazil's GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points [1] - This growth rate aligns with the average for Latin America and the Caribbean but remains below the average for emerging market economies, which is 4.2% [1] - The IMF has lowered Brazil's GDP growth forecast for next year to 1.9%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, citing factors such as U.S. tariffs and restrictive monetary and fiscal policies as contributors to the economic slowdown [1] Summary by Categories GDP Growth Forecast - Brazil's GDP growth forecast for 2023 is now 2.4%, up by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The forecast for 2024 has been adjusted down to 1.9%, down by 0.2 percentage points [1] Regional Comparison - Brazil's growth rate is in line with the average for Latin America and the Caribbean [1] - However, it is significantly lower than the average growth rate for emerging markets, which stands at 4.2% [1] Economic Influences - The IMF attributes the expected slowdown in Brazil's economy to external factors, including U.S. tariffs and restrictive monetary and fiscal policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve officials support two more interest rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, and believe that tariffs will not lead to sustained inflation [1] Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for this year has been revised up to 1.8% from the previous 1.3% [1] - Employment growth is still expected to remain weak [1] Market Movements - On October 13, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures opened at 904.88 CNY/g and closed at 927.56 CNY/g, a change of 2.88% [1] - The Shanghai silver futures opened at 11,189.00 CNY/kg and closed at 11,531.00 CNY/kg, a change of 4.05% [1] - The trading volume for gold contracts was 618,953, an increase of 100.67% [1] - The trading volume for silver contracts was 2,823,544, an increase of 161.01% [1] Bond Market - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.057%, an increase of 0.38 basis points [1] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.531%, an increase of 0.18 basis points [1] Precious Metals ETF - As of October 13, 2025, gold ETF holdings remained at 1,017.16 tons, while silver ETF holdings increased by 310 tons to 15,754 tons [1] Trading Strategy - The strategy for gold is cautiously bullish, with the Au2512 contract expected to fluctuate between 925 CNY/g and 955 CNY/g [1] - The strategy for silver is also cautiously bullish, with the Ag2512 contract expected to fluctuate between 11,500 CNY/kg and 11,800 CNY/kg [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Brazil has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2023 down from 2.1% to 2%, which is below the expectations of both the Lula government and financial markets [1] Economic Impact - The uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Brazilian exports to the U.S. remains a concern [1] - The ongoing trade war is expected to affect industrial performance, investment, and the external sector, potentially exacerbating the economic slowdown in Brazil [1] Future Projections - The Central Bank anticipates a GDP growth rate of 1.5% for Brazil in 2026, influenced by tight monetary policy, global economic slowdown, and underwhelming agricultural growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut in nine months, aligning with market expectations, and is projected to lower rates further in the coming months [3][6]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% was anticipated by investors, with a 96% probability indicated in futures markets prior to the announcement [6][12]. - The median forecast from Federal Reserve officials now suggests a total of three rate cuts for this year, an increase from the previous estimate of two [5][20]. - The dot plot indicates that while nine officials expect two more cuts this year, this does not constitute a majority, as six officials predict no further cuts [21][20]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has revised its GDP growth forecasts upward for the next three years, while also adjusting unemployment rate expectations downward for the same period [23][24]. - The PCE inflation expectations have been raised for the next two years, with a target of returning to 2% by 2028 [23][27]. Employment and Risks - The latest statement highlights a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating rising risks in the labor market [4][9]. - The shift in focus from inflation concerns to employment risks provides a rationale for the Federal Reserve's decision to implement a modest rate cut [6][8]. Voting Dynamics - In the recent vote, only one member, newly appointed Stephen Miran, opposed the decision, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [12][14]. - The voting results indicate a less divided stance among Federal Reserve officials compared to previous meetings, suggesting a consensus on the current economic strategy [15][12]. Future Projections - The updated projections show a median federal funds rate of 3.6% by the end of 2025, down from previous estimates, with expectations of further cuts in the following years [17][20]. - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to total 125 basis points from September 2023 to the end of 2027, which is significantly lower than the 300 basis points previously suggested by former President Trump [17][20].

Economic Outlook - Brazil's Ministry of Finance has revised the GDP growth forecast for this year from 2.5% to 2.3% [1] - Inflation expectations have also been adjusted downwards from 4.9% to 4.8% [1] Impact of Tariffs - The potential imposition of tariffs by the U.S. from August 2025 to December 2026 could lead to a 0.2 percentage point decrease in Brazil's GDP growth [1] - However, the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan" is expected to mitigate this negative impact, reducing the GDP growth decline to 0.1 percentage points [1] Employment Effects - Without considering the effects of the "Brazil Sovereignty Plan," Brazil could lose approximately 138,000 jobs [1] - The services sector may see a loss of 51,800 jobs, representing about 0.1% of total employment in that sector [1] - The industrial sector is projected to lose 71,500 jobs, accounting for roughly 0.4% of its total employment [1] Additional Economic Indicators - The share of exports in GDP is expected to decline by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The unemployment rate may increase by 0.1 percentage points [1] - Inflation rate is anticipated to rise by 0.1 percentage points [1]