12月26日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘红。其中，PTA期货行情呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约 大幅走高2.88%，报5280.00元/吨。 现货方面，据新湖期货介绍，上一交易日，PTA现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强。贸易商商谈为 主，12月货在01贴水10~16附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4995~5110。1月货在05贴水60~65成交。主 流现货基差在01-13。 对于后市走势，五矿期货表示，PTA加工费短期在没有进一步刺激下上方空间有限，上游PXN不受淡季 影响，在强预期下支撑向上，关注预期交易的逢低做多机会。 成本端，华联期货分析称，布油在近五年低点反弹，油价相对低迷但货币贬值之下黄金强势以及地缘局 势复杂仍将为油价带来支撑，而且欧美对燃油车的限制边际放宽。 基本面上，一德期货分析称，供应上当前较低的加工差导致PTA检修意愿增强，关注预期外的检修计划 (逸盛检修延长)。需求端聚酯开工高位，终端织造负反馈来临，预计聚酯高开工12月仍能维持。 ...

【供需方面】 供应：截止12月19日，英力士125万吨PTA装置降负运行，后期可能停车，PTA负荷至73.2%(-0.5%)。 【现货方面】 12月24日，PTA期货震荡收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走弱。12月货在01贴水19附近商谈 成交，价格商谈区间在4975~5060。1月货在05贴水73~77成交。主流现货基差在01-19。 【利润方面】 12月24日，PTA现货加工费至221元/吨附近，TA2601盘面加工费315元/吨，TA2603盘面加工费292元/ 吨，TA2605盘面加工费327元/吨。 【行情展望】 随着原料PX大涨，PTA及聚酯产品价格有所跟涨。当前PTA供需压力不大，11-12月PTA装置检修较集 中，且聚酯开工在内外需支撑负荷持续高位，叠加印度BIS认证取消后，PTA出口预期增加，11-12月 PTA供需格局偏紧，PTA加工费有所修复。绝对价格来看，1季度PTA在低加工费下仍有装置存检修预 期，而下游聚酯春节前后季节性降负，使得PTA1季度仍存累库预期，且近期部分聚酯大厂计划逐步降 负，PTA继续上涨驱动有限。策略上，PTA跟随PX大涨后谨慎看待当前价格，不排除聚酯端实质性 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the PTA futures market showed a strong upward trend. TA2605 closed at 4,882 yuan/ton, up 208 yuan/ton or 4.85%. Short - term supply is still tight, social inventory is continuously decreasing, and the rise in PXN has also pushed up the PTA price [2]. - In the future, there are many near - term PTA overhauls. The balance sheet will show inventory reduction in December, and there is no pressure for inventory accumulation in January, which is better than the previous expectation. In the medium - to - long term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve. In addition, there will be many PX overhauls in the second quarter of next year, and the long - term outlook is positive [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The PTA futures price increased this week. TA2605 rose by 4.85%. Short - term supply is tight due to previous overhauls, and social inventory is decreasing. The downstream polyester load remained stable, while the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms continued to decline. The increase in PXN also contributed to the rise in PTA price [2]. Key Factors to Watch - Polyester operating rate, PTA overhauls, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trends [3]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA futures (continuous) | yuan/ton | 4,820.00 | 4,765.00 | 55.00 | 1.15% | Daily | | PTA output | 10,000 tons | 141.12 | 141.12 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Weekly | | Polyester chip operating rate | % | 83.70 | 83.80 | - 0.10 | - 0.12% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate | % | 62.90 | 63.69 | - 0.79 | - 1.24% | Weekly | | PXN | yuan/ton | 335 | 281 | 54.00 | 19.22% | Daily | | PTA cash - flow cost | yuan/ton | 4,850 | 4,687 | 163.00 | 3.48% | Daily | [4] PX - Related Analysis - The report includes the review of the PX futures and spot markets, analysis of PX supply (such as production, import volume, operating rate, and inventory), and presents relevant data through multiple graphs [6][13] PTA - Related Analysis - It covers the review of the PTA futures and spot markets, analysis of PTA supply (production, operating rate, social inventory), consumption (export, downstream product production and operating rate), and cost - profit analysis, with relevant data presented in graphs [20][22][28][36]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows mixed performance, with PTA futures exhibiting a strong upward trend, reflecting supply adjustments and demand dynamics in the polyester sector [1] Supply Side - Southwest Futures reports that Yintou's 1 million tons facility is scheduled for maintenance, while Zhongtai has reduced its output to 90%, leading to a PTA operating rate adjustment to 75.7% by Thursday [1] - Honggang Petrochemical plans maintenance from November 17 to November 25, and Yisheng (Ningbo) is currently operating at 90% capacity with maintenance scheduled for later in the month [1] Demand Side - Wukuang Futures indicates that the inventory and profit pressure for polyester fibers are relatively low, suggesting that operating rates may remain high; however, due to inventory pressure and the off-season for downstream bottle-grade PET, further increases in polyester operating rates are unlikely [1] Inventory Levels - According to Ruida Futures, the current PTA factory inventory stands at 4.09 days, an increase of 0.06 days from last week but a decrease of 0.29 days compared to the same period last year; polyester factory PTA raw material inventory is at 6.1 days, down 0.35 days week-on-week and down 2.25 days year-on-year [1] Overall Market Outlook - Zhonghui Futures notes that the low PTA processing fee may lead to increased maintenance efforts in the future, potentially alleviating supply-side pressures; downstream demand remains relatively strong with high operating rates in polyester and weaving, although order stability is still in question [1] - There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November and December, with limited upward driving forces in the short term due to low processing fees, suggesting a focus on expanding processing fee price differentials [1]

Market Overview - On October 27, PTA futures surged significantly after news from an industry seminar, with the spot market showing a general trading atmosphere and spot basis stabilizing. This week, transactions occurred at a discount of 80-82 for the January contract, with price discussions ranging between 4440-4565 [1] - The main spot basis is at 01-81 [1] Profitability - As of October 27, the PTA spot processing fee is around 112 CNY/ton, while the processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 contracts are 259 CNY/ton and 276 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 24, PTA operating rates reached 78.8%, an increase of 2.8%. A new 3 million ton PTA facility in East China began production last weekend and has started output [3] - Demand: As of October 24, polyester operating rates remained stable at 91.4%. On October 27, the price of polyester filament saw slight increases, with overall production and sales being weak over the weekend but acceptable on Monday. The terminal sales atmosphere is relatively good, and after last week's downstream restocking, filament factory inventories are at a relatively low level, indicating potential price support. News of PTA's anti-internal competition has driven raw material prices, leading to some downstream replenishment, with expectations that filament prices may rise [3] Market Outlook - With the recovery of some PTA facility operating rates and the commissioning of new facilities, the overall spot basis for PTA is weak. Despite continuous compression of PTA processing fees and a significant boost in futures prices due to industry seminar news, the rebound potential for PTA is limited until substantial policies are implemented and given the weak supply-demand expectations for crude oil [4] - The strategy suggests monitoring pressure above 4600 for long positions and considering reducing positions on rallies; a rolling hedge strategy is recommended for TA1-5 [4]

Market Overview - On October 20, PTA futures experienced fluctuations and a downward trend, with a general atmosphere in the spot market being average. The trading range for spot prices expanded, primarily driven by traders, with sporadic offers from polyester factories. October cargo was traded at a discount of 80-90, with prices in the range of 4295-4340. November cargo was traded at a discount of 70, and late November at a discount of 65. Warehouse receipts were traded around a discount of 50, with the mainstream spot basis at a discount of 85 [1]. Profitability - As of October 20, the PTA spot processing fee was around 120 yuan/ton, while the processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 futures were 253 yuan/ton and 278 yuan/ton, respectively [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 17, PTA operating rates were at 76%, an increase of 0.6%. - Demand: Polyester operating rates remained stable at 91.4%. On October 20, the price of polyester filament saw a slight decline, with overall production and sales being average. The significant drop in oil prices was influenced by Trump's tariff policies, leading some filament factories to lower prices or increase discounts. Downstream knitting operations were performing reasonably well, with some downstream buyers purchasing raw materials as needed. Currently, POY has some profitability, while FDY fine denier remains at a loss. With factory inventories continuing to rise, filament prices are expected to follow the downward trend of raw materials [3]. Market Outlook - With the recovery of some PTA plant operating rates and news of new installations coming online, the PTA spot basis has weakened significantly. However, as the basis approaches a no-risk arbitrage level and some major PTA suppliers reduce their operating rates, the downward space for the basis is limited. In terms of absolute prices, the weak supply and demand expectations for crude oil limit price drivers, along with the negative impact of fluctuating tariff policies. Therefore, short-term PTA price movements are expected to remain weak and fluctuate. The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach, with attention on Brent crude oil support around 60 USD/barrel; a rolling reverse spread strategy is recommended [4].

Market Overview - On October 13, the PTA futures market experienced slight fluctuations with a minor decline, while the spot market showed weak trading sentiment and a weakening basis [1] - The market is anticipating the commissioning of a new 3 million-ton PTA facility by Dushan Energy in October, although the exact timeline remains uncertain [1] Profitability - As of October 13, the PTA spot processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton, with processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 futures at 280 yuan/ton and 298 yuan/ton respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 10, Yisheng New Materials has reduced production, and Hengli has halted 2.2 million tons, leading to a PTA operating rate of 75.4%, a decrease of 1.4% [3] - Demand: The polyester operating rate has slightly increased to 91.4%, up by 1.1%. The operating rates for various segments are as follows: texturing at 81% (no change), weaving at 69% (down by 1%), and dyeing at 78% (up by 2%) [3] - The weaving sector shows a mixed atmosphere, with knitting experiencing a structural peak while woven spraying remains sluggish, leading to rising local inventories [3] Market Outlook - Due to persistently low PTA processing fees and expectations of multiple PTA maintenance schedules, the market outlook remains cautious. Despite high downstream operating levels, the weak supply-demand balance limits basis recovery [4] - Absolute prices are expected to remain under pressure due to weak oil supply-demand expectations and fluctuating tariff policies, suggesting a potential short-term decline in PTA prices [4] - The strategy suggests a wait-and-see approach for TA, with a focus on potential short-selling opportunities [4]

Summary of PTA Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) industry has experienced a significant price decline in 2025, with an average price of 4,800 RMB/ton from January to September, down 14.4% year-on-year [1][4][9] - The price fluctuation range has narrowed, primarily influenced by tariff policies and crude oil price volatility [1][4] - PTA production increased by 3.3% year-on-year to 54.6 million tons, while the operating rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 77.5% due to unexpected maintenance [1][7][6] Key Points and Arguments Price Dynamics - PTA prices fluctuated between 4,000 and 5,000 RMB/ton, with significant price drops in April due to tariff impacts and crude oil price declines [4][9] - The processing fee for PTA has been low, with a sharp decline from July, averaging 161 RMB in September [5][8] Supply and Demand Factors - The processing fee decline is attributed to a 15% drop in crude oil prices and a 28% compression in PX (Paraxylene) processing efficiency [5][8] - The industry faced supply pressure due to reduced procurement from Turkey, which cut Chinese purchases by 300,000 tons [1][7] - The demand from end-manufacturing and texturing machines decreased by 7-8%, leading to weakened market sentiment [1][10] Tariff Policy Impact - Tariff increases starting in February led to a significant market slowdown, with exports halting temporarily until adjustments were made in May [9][10] - The tariffs created a waiting period during what should have been a peak season, affecting overall market dynamics [9] Future Outlook - The PTA industry is expected to continue facing challenges, but there are opportunities for recovery as PX production is anticipated to alleviate some pressure on PTA profitability in the next five years [18][20] - The PTA inventory-to-sales ratio has been declining since 2020, currently at a historically low level, indicating potential for continued destocking and market recovery [22] Export Opportunities and Challenges - India presents a significant export opportunity as it is the largest PTA demand country outside of China, with new production facilities expected to impact Chinese exports [21] - However, challenges arise from the expansion of overseas PTA facilities, particularly in Turkey and India, which could affect market dynamics [21][25] Industry Performance and Collaboration - Major PTA companies currently lack a unified collaboration plan, with varying operational statuses and maintenance schedules [23][31] - The overall operational load for the PTA industry is approximately 77.77%, with potential for slight increases unless affected by maintenance [31] Additional Insights - Short fiber enterprises are performing relatively well, maintaining processing fees around 1,000 RMB, but their market influence is limited due to their smaller share of the polyester capacity [12] - The expansion of bottle chip capacity has led to increased inventory pressure, prompting factories to reduce production [11] - The market environment is characterized by low processing fees, leading to planned maintenance and reductions in non-integrated enterprises [16] This summary encapsulates the key insights and dynamics of the PTA industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both current challenges and future opportunities.

Group 1 - PTA futures have significantly declined, with the main contract reported at 4656.00 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.06% [1] - As of September 3, 2025, the average processing range for PTA in China is 189.82 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 21.32% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.68% [2] - The current PTA production capacity utilization rate is 70.86%, down 5.36% from the previous week, with domestic PTA output at 1.3129 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous week [3] Group 2 - According to Nanhua Futures, the overall sentiment in commodities is weak, with high oil prices retreating and PX-TA prices following suit. The structural contradictions between PX and TA are expected to dominate the market, maintaining a "tight up and loose down" pattern [4] - Hualian Futures notes that supply pressure has eased due to significant maintenance at large facilities in South and East China, while polyester operating rates remain stable. However, the replenishment of polyester filament shows moderate performance, focusing on consuming existing raw material inventories [4]

Supply and Demand - As of August 29, PTA operating rate is at 70.4%, a decrease of 2.5% [3] - As of August 29, polyester operating rate has increased to 90.3%, an increase of 0.3% [3] - Downstream polyester production has seen a decline due to lack of orders and high temperatures, with inventory levels being acceptable but overall stock being high [3] Price and Profitability - On September 1, PTA spot processing fee is around 170 CNY/ton, while TA2511 and TA2601 futures processing fees are 317 CNY/ton and 313 CNY/ton respectively [2] - The main spot trading range is between 4710 and 4735 CNY, with some transactions at a basis of 40 to 48 [1] Market Outlook - The low processing margin has led to increased unplanned maintenance of PTA facilities in August and September, improving supply-demand expectations, although the execution of maintenance is not meeting expectations [4] - There is still a demand expectation for September and October, with polyester and terminal loads recovering compared to previous periods, providing some support to demand [4] - Short-term strategies suggest focusing on support around 4700 CNY, with a short-term bullish outlook [4]