通胀恐慌、关税引发全球暴跌以及中东地缘政治危机在今年先后来袭，但是随后这些危机迅速被化解，且全球股 市定价显示这些负面冲击根本无法撼动AI驱动的"长期牛市轨迹"。在这一点上，很难想象还有什么会让投资者阶 层感到不安，尤其是当前特朗普"对等关税2.0来袭"也难再撼动投资者群体，毕竟投资者们已经熟练掌握"TACO "策略，并且他们押注即将到来的财报季将显示出史无前例的AI热潮继续推动科技股上攻行情，进而带动股市续创 新高。 久经沙场的华尔街多头们愈发难以被特朗普关税等利空因素吓倒，这些全球最大规模多头势力对于负面冲击的容 忍度正变得空前"顽强"。 本周再度上演的全球风险资产创新高热潮便是实例：尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普升级了对于日本、巴西等全球主 要贸易伙伴的威胁，还包括威胁对加拿大商品征收35%关税、对铜征收50%关税，比特币却飙升至 118,000 美元创 历史新高，美债市场波动率降温，MSCI全球股指与标普500指数再度创下历史新高，全球散户投资者们再次豪掷 高风险押注。 这是一种"韧性"，源于屡次直面重大威胁之后愈加强大——即使特朗普政府主导的新一轮贸易冲突前景也被市场 看涨势力抛诸脑后，转而在各类资产上 ...

对于那些在加密货币、科技股、杠杆ETF和大宗商品等领域坐拥丰厚利润的交易员来说，这感觉像是一 种证明。汇丰银行首席多资产策略师Max Kettner表示： 华尔街投资者对冲击的容忍度已变得异常强韧，从通胀焦虑到关税威胁，再到中东战争，似乎已经没有 什么能够真正撼动投资者的信心。 即使特朗普本周升级了对主要贸易伙伴的威胁，包括对加拿大商品征收35%关税和对铜征收50%关税， 市场的投机情绪依然高涨。比特币飙升至11.8万美元上方，债券波动性消退，股市保持在纪录高位附 近。 据央视新闻，特朗普周四表示，他计划对多数贸易伙伴征收15%或20%的统一关税，并对自加拿大进口 的商品征收35%关税。 据华尔街见闻此前文章提及，特朗普周四在社交媒体上发文称，自他上台推出关税政策以来，英伟达股 价迄今上涨47%。他还称赞科技股、工业股、纳斯达克指数和加密货币均创下新高。 "我们绝对认为风险资产近期的看涨价格走势是合理的。请记住，这不再仅仅是股票，而是 几乎蔓延到所有风险资产。如果说有什么不同的话，我们认为投资者再次配置不足，并继续 与涨势对抗。" 分析指出，这种投资者韧性是在面对威胁并变得更强后形成的，即使是美国主导的贸易冲 ...

"对等关税"暂缓期延缓，特朗普开启"对等关税2.0"。 根据特朗普的最新表态，他将对多数贸易伙伴征收15%或20%的统一关税，但已对巴西、加拿大和越南 分别征收了50%、35%和20%的关税，远超4月时的关税水平。 本周一，特朗普发出贸易信函，宣布对14个国家征收新一轮关税。据新华社消息，特朗普宣布，将从8 月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。 根据这些信的内容： 日本、韩国、马来西亚、突尼斯、哈萨克斯坦将被征收25%的关税，南非和波黑将被征收 30%的关税，印度尼西亚将被征收32%的关税，塞尔维亚和孟加拉国将被征收35%的关税， 泰国和柬埔寨将被征收36%的关税，老挝和缅甸则面临高达40%的关税。 并且，特朗普还在信中警告收信国领导人称，如果想提高关税作为回应，美国将在此次税率基础上再提 高同等额度的关税。 据央视新闻，周三，特朗普向八国发出第二波"征税函"，包括： 对文莱和摩尔多瓦的产品征收25%的关税，对阿尔及利亚、伊拉克及利比亚的产品征收30% 关税，对菲律宾的产品征收20%关税，对斯里兰卡的产品征收30%的关税，对所有巴西产品 征收50%的关税。 据央视新 ...

KVB官网发现周四，特朗普一系列新的关税警告如石沉大海，并未如 4 月宣布 "对等关税" 时那般在市场中掀起惊 涛骇浪。当日，标普 500 和纳斯达克指数收盘时仍强势上扬，双双创下新高。科技巨头英伟达表现格外亮眼，收盘 市值首次突破 4 万亿美元大关，展现出强大的市场影响力。与此同时，比特币价格也一路飙升，创下历史新高，似 乎全然不受关税政策的阴霾笼罩。 汇丰策略师马克斯・凯特纳（Max Kettner）带领的团队表示，风险资产有望持续获得支撑，二季度财报季和市场 对关税敏感度的降低将成为关键催化剂。"除投资者仓位仍具支撑外，我们认为市场对二季度财报季的悲观预期被 夸大。美元走弱、公司盈利指引改善及低预期足以带来正面意外。在本周再度宣布关税措施后，任何降息举措也可 能被市场解读为利好。" 投资者正紧锣密鼓地为即将到来的第二季度财报季做准备，密切关注特朗普 4 月 2 日启动的关税战对企业盈利的潜 在影响。Granite Wealth Management 董事总经理布鲁斯・扎罗（Bruce Zaro）表示："分析师对标普 500 公司普遍持 怀疑态度，纷纷下调预期，主要基于关税及其带来的不确定性。但我们认为， ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 周四，特朗普一系列新的关税警告并未像4月宣布"对等关税"时那样扰动市场，标普500和纳斯达克指数 收盘仍创下新高，英伟达收盘市值首次突破4万亿美元。另外，比特币也创下历史新高。 "华尔街一哥"：市场过于松懈，美联储加息概率近50% 摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）警告称，金融市场对于特朗普一再发出的关税威胁已变得过于 松懈，"不幸的是，我认为市场对此感到过于自满。" 他指出，特朗普此前多次在最严厉的关税威胁上最终选择妥协，市场甚至形成了一种所谓"TACO交 易"的投资逻辑，即认为"特朗普总会临阵退缩"。戴蒙说： "我不喜欢用'TACO交易'这个词，因为我认为他选择退缩是正确的。" 戴蒙同时表示，如果美国经济出现任何疲软，特朗普将面临很大挑战："我认为如果美国经济哪怕稍有 减弱，他的日子都会很难过。" 戴蒙：美联储加息概率高于市场预估 戴蒙还惊人地表示，他认为美联储可能加息——尽管市场对此有不同预期。市场对通胀走强的担忧已让 美联储今年未采取降息行动，仍在观望局势发展。 他认为，美欧之间达成协议非常重要，并补充称"需要制定一个关税框架" ...

摩根大通CEO戴蒙：我不喜欢使用TACO交易这个词，因为我认为特朗普在解放日之后"退缩"是正确的 选择。 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 衡量标普500指数短期预期波动率的波动率指数（VIX）已降至16，远低于约20的长期均值；美国国债市场预期波动率指数也接近 三年低点。与此同时，英伟达（NVDA）引领科技股飙升，周三市值突破前所未有的4万亿美元。 华尔街的"恐慌指数"远低于近期峰值 尽管美国总统特朗普本周密集释放新的关税威胁——包括对铜加征50%关税、对制药行业加征200%关税，以及对日本、韩国、菲 律宾等国加征关税，但市场反应平淡。 "我已经不在乎关税了，"汇丰银行多元资产策略主管马克斯·凯特纳（Max Kettner）称，"这些都是自说自话。他们完全可能说'再 拖三个月'，有什么能阻止呢？" "TACO交易"成共识 市场预计4月动荡不会重演 汇市方面，特朗普威胁对巴西加征50%关税后，雷亚尔周三下跌，但外汇市场整体上保持平静。CME Group编制的欧元兑美元等汇 率的预期波动指数较4月高点显著回落，大致回到年初水平。 "市场认为，特朗普政府不太可能希望重演4月初'解放日'关税引发的动荡，"三菱日联金融集团（MUFG）高级外汇分析师李·哈德 曼（Lee Hardman）称。 美国资 ...

市场波动率已降至年内最低水平附近，美国股市创下历史新高，尽管特朗普本周升级贸易威胁，但投资 者对关税担忧情绪正在消散。 衡量标普500指数短期预期波动率的VIX指数已跌至16，远低于约20的长期平均水平。美国国债市场预 期波动率的类似指数也接近三年来最低水平。与此同时，英伟达周三市值突破史无前例的4万亿美元， 带领科技股飙升。 尽管特朗普本周发出一连串新的贸易威胁，但市场依然保持冷静。投资者现在对特朗普当前威胁的严肃 程度远不如对其早期言论的重视，押注总统最终会在严重损害美国增长的关税问题上退让。这种交易策 略在市场上被称为"TACO"，即"Trump Always Chickens Out"（特朗普总是退缩）。 汇丰银行多资产策略主管Max Kettner表示： "我不再关心关税了，这都是自己强加的。什么能阻止他们说，让我们再给三个月时间？" "特朗普看跌期权"效应显现 投资者对关税威胁态度转变的关键时点是5月12日。据央视新闻，5月14日12时01分起，我国对原产于美 国的进口商品加征关税调整措施开始实施，由34%调整为10%，在90天内暂停实施24%的对美加征关税 税率。 Kettner表示： "5月1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Non - farm data cooled the interest - rate cut trading significantly, and the macro mainline returned to Trump's tariff policy. Trump's administration's "apparently tough but actually soft" stance strengthened the TACO consensus, but Trump may not always "follow the rules", so the risk of TACO trading reversal should be watched, and attention should be paid to the progress of EU - US and China - US trade negotiations [1]. - The better - than - expected non - farm employment data in June showed that the US labor market remained resilient, and the sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates was not triggered, leading to a significant cooling of interest - rate cut trading. The trading mainline may return to Trump's tariff policy [12][15][16]. - After the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period, Trump's tariff policy was "apparently tough but actually soft", further strengthening the market's TACO trading consensus [20][22]. - In the third quarter, the macro trading mainline may revolve around TACO trading. The potential risk was that Trump might become tougher on tariff policy after domestic pressure eased, which could lead to a reversal of TACO trading [22][31]. - The next - stage macro trading mainline still revolved around Trump's tariff policy. There was a possibility of switching from TACO trading to interest - rate cut trading in September. Attention should be paid to the EU - US trade negotiations and the China - US trade negotiations after August 12 [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Overseas Macro Mainline Recalibration 3.1.1 Non - farm Data and Interest - rate Cut Trading - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than the market expectation, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. The government sector's employment increase supported the data, while the private sector's employment declined, showing some structural problems [12]. - Inflation was a necessary but not sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates, while a significant weakening of the labor market was a sufficient condition. The good labor data in June likely closed the door for a July interest - rate cut, and interest - rate cut trading cooled [15][16]. 3.1.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - Before the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9, Trump's administration adopted a "tough - and - soft" negotiation strategy. It sent tariff letters to 22 countries in two batches on July 7 and 9 [2][20]. - In terms of countries, the first two batches of letter - receiving countries were mainly Asian countries, with a "warning" meaning. In terms of tax rates, except for Brazil, only three countries had higher new tariff rates, and the increase was small. In terms of the implementation period, the new tariffs would be implemented on August 1, about three weeks later than the original plan [20][21]. - Trump's "apparently tough but actually soft" tariff policy strengthened the market's TACO trading consensus. After the letters were sent, the stock markets in Japan and South Korea showed a "bad news is good news" trend [22]. 3.1.3 Potential Risks of TACO Trading Reversal - Compared with April, Trump's domestic pressure had eased. The US financial market had recovered, and the "Great Beauty" bill had passed, which was a major victory for Trump [22][23][25]. - After the "Great Beauty" bill was passed, Trump's administration might shift its policy focus to tariffs to increase tariff revenue, promote re - industrialization, and strengthen the "victory narrative" for the 2026 mid - term elections [27]. - Trump's administration showed a tendency to weaponize tariff policy, such as significantly increasing the tariff rate on Brazil, which might lead to a reversal of TACO trading [29][31].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has become the first publicly listed company to reach a market value of $4 trillion, marking a significant milestone in its growth trajectory driven by the AI technology boom [1][2]. Company Performance - Nvidia's share price increased by over 2% at market open, contributing to its achievement of the $4 trillion market cap [1]. - Since its market debut in 1999, Nvidia's share value has surged by 409,825%, reflecting its strong performance over 26 years [2]. - The company has transformed from a gaming hardware provider to a key player in AI infrastructure, with its chips now essential for various applications including natural language processing and robotics [12]. Market Context - The recent rise in Nvidia's stock value has coincided with a broader trend of optimism in US stock markets, attributed to delays in the implementation of tariffs by the Trump administration [8]. - Despite concerns regarding global AI demand and competition from low-cost alternatives like DeepSeek, analysts believe Nvidia's market value has further growth potential [3][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts project that while Nvidia may face slower growth and increased competition, it remains an attractive investment opportunity with a forecasted top-line growth of over 50% this year [14]. - The company's trading at a relatively modest 32 times expected earnings suggests continued potential for investors looking to capitalize on the AI boom [14].