Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions taken by the United States against India for purchasing Russian oil, including the imposition of additional tariffs on Indian goods, and the potential for similar actions against China in the future [1]. Group 1 - The U.S. has announced additional tariffs on Indian goods as a punishment for India's purchase of Russian oil [1]. - There are threats from the U.S. to impose secondary tariffs on Chinese goods due to China's purchases of Russian oil [1]. - President Trump stated that there are currently no plans to impose tariffs on China for buying Russian oil, following his meeting with President Putin [1][2]. Group 2 - Trump mentioned that he may need to reconsider the issue of tariffs on China in two to three weeks, but for now, it is not a priority [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decision by the United States to impose additional tariffs on Indian goods as a punishment for India's purchase of Russian oil, while also hinting at potential secondary tariffs on Chinese goods due to similar purchases [1] Group 1 - The U.S. has announced extra tariffs on Indian products in response to India's acquisition of Russian oil [1] - President Trump indicated that there are currently no plans to impose tariffs on Chinese goods related to their purchase of Russian oil, following his meeting with President Putin [1] - Trump mentioned that he may reconsider the issue of tariffs on China in two to three weeks, but for now, it is not a priority [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. has announced additional tariffs on Indian goods as a punishment for India's purchase of Russian oil [1] - There are threats from the U.S. to impose secondary tariffs on Chinese goods due to China's purchase of Russian oil [1] - President Trump stated that there are currently no plans to impose tariffs on China for purchasing Russian oil after his meeting with President Putin [3] Group 2 - Trump mentioned that he may reconsider the issue of tariffs on China in two to three weeks, but it is not an immediate concern [3] - The Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated that China's energy cooperation with countries, including Russia, is legitimate and based on national interests [3]

Group 1 - The article reports that U.S. President Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on steel and chips next week, starting with a lower tax rate [1] - The focus on tariffs indicates a potential shift in trade policy that could impact the steel and semiconductor industries significantly [1] Group 2 - The article references the "China IC Unicorn Alliance," suggesting a growing interest in the semiconductor sector within China [3] - The mention of the article being a reprint indicates a broader discussion on the implications of U.S. tariffs on global supply chains and market dynamics [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the origin has strong supply and demand, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2]. - For soybean oil, the reduction of US soybean planting area provides a theme for price increases [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: Palm oil closed at 9,362 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.56% increase and 9,414 yuan/ton at night with a 0.56% increase; soybean oil closed at 8,488 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.38% increase and 8,516 yuan/ton at night with a 0.33% increase; rapeseed oil closed at 9,802 yuan/ton during the day session with a 2.23% increase and 10,079 yuan/ton at night with a 2.83% increase [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: Palm oil trading volume decreased by 124,344 lots to 443,030 lots, and open interest decreased by 29,322 lots to 270,663 lots; soybean oil trading volume decreased by 23,809 lots to 140,203 lots, and open interest decreased by 28,769 lots to 306,250 lots; rapeseed oil trading volume increased by 77,172 lots to 271,285 lots, and open interest decreased by 8,561 lots to 117,479 lots [3]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,260 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,690 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 102 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 162 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 112 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 448 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 886 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Anti - Dumping Investigation**: The Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of imported rapeseed from Canada, imposing a 75.8% deposit rate on all Canadian companies, causing a 4.5% drop in ICE Canadian rapeseed futures [4][5]. - **Tariff Adjustment**: Starting from 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the 24% additional tariff on US imports will be suspended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff will be retained [5]. - **US Soybean Supply and Demand**: According to the August USDA supply - demand report, the expected US soybean production for 2025/2026 is 4.292 billion bushels, the expected ending inventory is 290 million bushels, and the expected yield is 53.6 bushels per acre [5]. - **Indian Oil Imports**: Indian soybean oil imports in 2024/25 are expected to soar 60% year - on - year to 5.5 million tons, while palm oil imports may drop 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, and sunflower oil imports may drop 20% to 2.8 million tons [6]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory**: Malaysian palm oil inventory reached a 19 - month high of 2.11 million tons in July. Analysts expect the inventory to remain above 2 million tons, with prices likely to decline in Q3 and rise in Q4 [7]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is also 1, indicating a neutral trend [7].

Group 1 - The trade war initiated by Trump has severely impacted the global economy, with China's countermeasures leading to a shift in attitudes among various countries towards the U.S. [1][4][11] - The UK Chancellor, Reeves, has openly rejected U.S. requests to isolate China, labeling such actions as foolish and emphasizing the importance of maintaining contact with China [9][14][22]. - The U.S. has imposed significant tariffs on UK goods, including a 10% baseline tariff and a 25% tariff on UK automotive exports, which constitutes over 10% of the UK's total exports to the U.S. [22][24][26]. Group 2 - The UK's refusal to align with the U.S. against China reflects a broader recognition among nations that isolating a major economy like China is impractical and detrimental to their own interests [7][30][34]. - The response from the UK indicates a potential shift in the dynamics of international relations, where countries are reconsidering their alliances in light of U.S. actions [36][39]. - China's stance remains focused on cooperation and mutual benefit, rejecting the notion of being a pawn in U.S. geopolitical strategies [32][34].

Core Points - South African President Ramaphosa and US President Trump held a phone conversation on bilateral trade issues, agreeing to continue discussions on trade negotiations [1] - A new round of US tariffs is set to take effect on August 8, with South Africa facing a 30% tariff rate, the highest among sub-Saharan African countries [1] - South Africa's exports to the US account for approximately 7.5% of its total exports, primarily consisting of intermediate goods for US industries and agricultural products [1] - The new tariffs may reduce South Africa's economic growth rate by 0.2%, potentially affecting around 30,000 jobs [1] - In response to the economic impact, the South African government has initiated several measures, including establishing an export support platform and promoting export market diversification [1]

Employment Data - In July, the U.S. added only 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly lower than expected, with previous months' job additions revised down to 19,000 and 14,000 for May and June respectively, indicating a downward adjustment of 86,000 jobs[3] - The average unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, reversing a slight decline in June[3] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell for the third consecutive month, down 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%, the lowest since December 2022, reflecting a decrease in potential labor supply due to strict immigration controls[4] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9% year-on-year, following three months of stagnation, indicating upward pressure on wages[4] Economic Implications - The labor market's current cooling trend is expected to be temporary, with potential recovery as fiscal expansion measures are implemented, which may lead to increased job creation and higher incomes[4] - The "Big and Beautiful Act" is anticipated to provide significant tax incentives for domestic investment, potentially leading to a rebound in the labor market and upward pressure on inflation[4] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar index fell sharply by 1.38% to 98.69, reflecting market concerns over the labor market's performance[3] - The overall structure of job additions in July suggests a prolonged process for the return of advanced industry chains to the U.S., with tariffs having a notable impact on domestic manufacturing[3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has issued guidelines regarding the imposition of tariffs on Brazilian goods [1] Group 1 - The guidelines detail the specific products affected by the new tariffs [1] - The announcement is part of a broader strategy to regulate trade practices and protect domestic industries [1] - The impact of these tariffs on trade relations between the U.S. and Brazil is expected to be significant [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on the upcoming non-farm payroll data and the impact of U.S. economic indicators on gold prices. The overall sentiment remains bullish, supported by the 100-day moving average, despite pressures from a strengthening U.S. dollar [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On July 31, gold opened at $3275.89 per ounce, reached a low of $3273.86, and peaked at $3314.81 before closing at $3289.93, marking a daily increase of $14.04 or 0.43% [1]. - The daily trading range was $40.95, indicating significant volatility and trading opportunities [1]. Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting key economic data, including U.S. unemployment rates and non-farm payroll figures, with expectations of rising unemployment and declining job numbers, which could support gold prices [5]. - The U.S. dollar index has recently strengthened, surpassing the 100 mark for the first time in two months, which has exerted downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices have not reached new highs for three consecutive months, suggesting potential risks of a decline to $3000 or $2600 [7]. - The gold price is currently supported by an upward trend line from previous highs, indicating that any pullback may stabilize above $3000 [7]. - Weekly charts show that gold is trading below the 5-10 week moving averages, with a possibility of further declines to $3200 or $3000 [9]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates a period of volatility, with the potential for a rebound if the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates in September, which could push gold prices towards $3570 [11]. - The overall sentiment suggests that gold may experience a period of consolidation before potentially rising again in the fourth quarter of the year [5][12].