Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that recent progress in trade negotiations has led to a strong performance in the US stock market, with major indices reaching historical highs, reducing uncertainty in the global economic outlook [1][3] - The US has reached trade framework agreements with several countries, including the EU, Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia, which have significantly lowered tariffs compared to previous rates, enhancing investor confidence [3] - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, indicating a stable economic environment, supported by strong economic data, which further boosts the stock market [4] Group 2 - The trade agreements include a 15% tariff on goods imported from the EU, significantly lower than the previously proposed 30%, and a commitment from the EU for $750 billion in strategic purchases, including military equipment [3] - The US-Japan agreement also sets a 15% import tariff, with Japan committing to invest $500 billion in the US, ensuring that 90% of investment profits remain in the US [3] - Recent economic data shows a robust performance, with a 3% GDP growth in Q2 and a decrease in the core PCE price index, which reduces the urgency for the Fed to cut rates [4]

Employment Data - In July, the U.S. added only 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly lower than expected, with previous months' job additions revised down to 19,000 and 14,000 for May and June respectively, indicating a downward adjustment of 86,000 jobs[3] - The average unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, reversing a slight decline in June[3] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell for the third consecutive month, down 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%, the lowest since December 2022, reflecting a decrease in potential labor supply due to strict immigration controls[4] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9% year-on-year, following three months of stagnation, indicating upward pressure on wages[4] Economic Implications - The labor market's current cooling trend is expected to be temporary, with potential recovery as fiscal expansion measures are implemented, which may lead to increased job creation and higher incomes[4] - The "Big and Beautiful Act" is anticipated to provide significant tax incentives for domestic investment, potentially leading to a rebound in the labor market and upward pressure on inflation[4] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar index fell sharply by 1.38% to 98.69, reflecting market concerns over the labor market's performance[3] - The overall structure of job additions in July suggests a prolonged process for the return of advanced industry chains to the U.S., with tariffs having a notable impact on domestic manufacturing[3]

Stock Market Performance - In July 2025, global stock markets rose, with the KOSPI increasing by over 5%, and the NASDAQ rising nearly 4%[4] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both saw monthly gains of nearly 3%[4] Hong Kong Stock Sector Performance - The healthcare sector surged by 22.8%, while the industrial and energy sectors also performed well with increases of 9.9% and 9.7% respectively[8] - The overall performance of the Hang Seng industry indices showed positive growth across all sectors in July 2025[8] IPO and Financing Overview - In July 2025, the Hong Kong IPO market saw 9 new listings, raising approximately HKD 17.63 billion, with a first-day loss rate of only 22.2%[13] - The major sectors for IPO financing included TMT, finance, consumer, and healthcare[13] - A total of 86 companies announced share placements in July, expected to raise around HKD 40.89 billion, primarily in the healthcare, TMT, and real estate sectors[13] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims dropping to 217,000, marking a six-week decline[15] - Despite weak home sales, the median home price increased by 1.97% year-on-year, indicating price stability in the real estate market[15] China Economic Policies - China continues to implement policies to combat "involution," with new regulations in various sectors including agriculture and healthcare[16] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project has commenced, with a total investment of approximately CNY 1.2 trillion[16] - The AI industry is receiving new catalysts, with the government advocating for global cooperation in AI governance[16] Market Outlook - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%[18] - The Hong Kong market is expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by favorable domestic policies and improved U.S.-China relations[18] - Investment focus is recommended on technology assets, consumer sectors, and stable dividend-paying stocks[18]

Group 1 - The tax imposed is not directly on countries like the EU, Japan, or China, but rather on American consumers, which could negatively impact political support if framed as a direct tax increase on consumers [1] - The purpose of the tax is to address fiscal shortfalls and the expanding U.S. debt gap, while being presented as a means to support American manufacturing and strengthen the country [3] - The imposition of tariffs is expected to lead to increased consumer prices and inflation in the U.S., as consumers will face higher costs for goods [3] Group 2 - Japan has negotiated a 15% tariff rate, which is seen as a favorable outcome compared to the initially threatened 25%-27.5% rate, and this has led to a lack of significant pushback from Japan [3] - South Korea is also expected to negotiate down to a 15% tariff rate, similar to Japan [4] - The U.S.-China temporary tariff situation includes a base rate of 10% with additional rates for specific goods, leading to comprehensive rates that can reach up to 245% for electric vehicles [4][5] Group 3 - Certain technology products, such as semiconductors, are exempt from tariffs, indicating a strategic approach to protect key industries [5] - The overall tariff burden on China is higher than that on the EU and Japan, which may not adversely affect the latter's exports to the U.S. and could even provide them with competitive advantages [5][6] - There is speculation that China may devalue its currency to counteract the impact of U.S. tariffs, although an argument is made that the yuan should appreciate to increase costs for U.S. consumers and contribute to inflation [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the macro - financial field, the stock index may see a style shift from small - and medium - cap to large - and medium - cap stocks, and the bond market is affected by multiple factors. In the commodity market, different metals, energy, and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends influenced by policies, seasons, and international trade [3][6]. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Macro News**: The National Development and Reform Commission promotes coordinated development of state - owned and private enterprises; over 3000 cases of chikungunya fever are confirmed in Foshan; Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US; the police strengthen management of "intelligent driving"; the EU plans to impose tariffs on nearly 100 billion euros of US goods if negotiations break down [2]. - **Trading Logic**: "Anti - involution" drives the rebound of traditional cyclical and track stocks, and the "Yajiang Hydropower" sector drives the rebound of infrastructure and power equipment sectors. It is recommended to go long on IF index futures on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all declined [4]. - **News**: The yield of 10 - year Japanese government bonds reached a high, and the Nikkei 225 index rose; the cumulative power generation installed capacity in China increased; the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [4]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in Q2 is resilient, and the central bank maintains a positive attitude towards capital. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but the recent good sentiment in commodities and the stock market suppresses the bond market [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and silver declined, while COMEX gold and silver showed different trends. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are at certain levels [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The reduction of overseas trade policy uncertainty pressures gold prices, while the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy makes silver prices resilient. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on silver [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper and Shanghai copper rose. LME inventory decreased, and domestic warehouse receipts decreased [10]. - **Price Outlook**: The decline of US Treasury yields and the expected release of domestic growth - stabilizing plans are positive, but the tight supply of copper raw materials, the off - season downstream demand, and the approaching US copper tariff implementation limit the upward space of copper prices [11]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum declined. Domestic inventory increased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded [12]. - **Price Outlook**: The upcoming domestic growth - stabilizing plan and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut are positive, but the off - season demand and the expected increase in inventory limit the upward space of aluminum prices [12]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. Domestic and LME inventories are at certain levels [13]. - **Price Outlook**: In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish due to the loose supply of zinc ore and the expected increase in zinc ingot production. In the short - term, zinc prices may be volatile and strong due to the Fed's dovish attitude and the positive commodity market atmosphere [13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index declined. Domestic and LME inventories are at certain levels [14][16]. - **Price Outlook**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the demand is affected by anti - dumping tariffs. It is expected that domestic lead prices will be weak [16]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Nickel ore prices declined, and nickel iron prices were under pressure [17]. - **Price Outlook**: The weak demand and high stainless steel inventory will lead to a further decline in ore prices and the price center of the industrial chain. It is recommended to try short positions lightly [17]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai tin rose. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is expected to increase, and the domestic smelting plants face raw material supply pressure [18]. - **Price Outlook**: The overall fundamentals of tin are weak due to the expected increase in supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The spot index of lithium carbonate declined, and the futures price also dropped significantly [19]. - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price is affected by the commodity market atmosphere and supply expectations, but the fundamental improvement is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [19][20]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index declined. The spot price in some regions increased, and the import window was closed [21]. - **Price Outlook**: The over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to short in the future [21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless steel main contract declined slightly. The spot price was relatively stable, and the social inventory decreased [22]. - **Price Outlook**: The anti - involution policy boosts the industry's willingness to support prices, but the oversupply situation remains. The market's upward momentum is weak [22]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract declined. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased slightly [23]. - **Price Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The cost support is strengthened, but the price increase is difficult [23]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices declined. The spot price of rebar increased slightly, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [25]. - **Price Outlook**: The overall commodity market atmosphere is positive, and the low inventory level is supportive. The market is expected to strengthen, but it is necessary to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [26]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The main contract of iron ore declined. The spot price and the basis are at certain levels [27]. - **Price Outlook**: The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, but risk control is needed [28]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be strong in the short - term under the influence of policies, and it is recommended to avoid short positions [29]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be strong in the short - term but limited in the long - term. It is recommended to avoid short positions in the short - term and look for short opportunities later [30]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices declined. The spot price of manganese silicon decreased, and that of ferrosilicon increased [31]. - **Price Outlook**: The industry has an over - capacity pattern, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see in the current high - volatility market [32]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The industrial silicon futures price declined. The spot price increased, and the short - term rebound trend may end [36]. - **Price Outlook**: The supply is excessive, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to rationally treat the current market and consider hedging for the industry [37]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU showed an oscillating trend after continuous rises. The opening rates of tire enterprises changed, and the inventory of natural rubber increased slightly [40][41]. - **Outlook**: Rubber prices are likely to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view, be cautious of short - term corrections, and consider a spread trading strategy [42]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI crude oil declined, Brent remained unchanged, and INE crude oil rose. US inventory data showed different trends [43]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are healthy, and there is upward momentum, but the seasonal demand weakness in August will limit the upward space. It is recommended to go long on dips and take profits [44]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The methanol futures price declined, and the spot price rose. The market is driven by news, and the volatility is high [45]. - **Outlook**: The upstream and downstream are likely to be in a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to wait and see after a sharp rise [45]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The urea futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The market was affected by the "anti - involution" policy [46]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support below but is limited above. It is recommended not to chase the high [46]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices of styrene declined, and the basis strengthened. The cost support exists, and the inventory increased [47][48]. - **Outlook**: The BZN spread may repair, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost [48]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC futures price declined, and the spot price decreased slightly. The cost was stable, the supply increased, and the demand decreased [49]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have improved, but there is still pressure. It is necessary to be cautious of the risk of sentiment ebbing [49]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract declined, and the spot price rose. The supply decreased, the demand decreased, and the inventory decreased [50]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to weaken, but the short - term valuation has support due to unexpected events [50]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract declined, and the spot price rose. The supply and demand were relatively stable, and the inventory increased [51]. - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to look for long - term opportunities following PX on dips [51]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract declined. The supply and demand were relatively stable, and the inventory decreased [52]. - **Outlook**: The short - term negative feedback pressure is small, and it is recommended to look for long - term opportunities following crude oil on dips [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The PE futures price declined, and the spot price rose. The upstream opening rate increased slightly, and the inventory changed [53]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate downward, with the short - term contradiction shifting from cost - driven to inventory - driven [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The PP futures price declined, and the spot price rose. The upstream opening rate increased, and the downstream opening rate decreased [55]. - **Outlook**: In the off - season, the supply and demand are weak. It is expected that the price will be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [54][55]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Quotes**: The domestic hog price mainly declined. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Outlook**: The short - term futures and spot prices deviate. The market has high expectations, but there is also hedging pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure after the seasonal rebound [57]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The national egg price mainly rose. The supply pressure decreased, and the demand improved slightly [58]. - **Outlook**: The spot price has bottomed out, and the short - term price is oscillating. For post - festival contracts, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the rebound [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: US soybean and soybean meal futures declined at night. The domestic soybean meal spot price rose, and the transaction was weak [59]. - **Outlook**: The external soybean market is in a low - valuation and oversupply state. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range of soybean meal and wait for new driving factors [59][61]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: Malaysian palm oil exports and production data showed different trends. Domestic palm oil oscillated and declined, and the net long positions of foreign capital in three major oils decreased [62][63]. - **Outlook**: The US biodiesel policy supports the price center. Palm oil may maintain stable inventory in the short - term and has a rising expectation in the fourth - quarter. However, the upward space is limited, and it is recommended to view it with an oscillating perspective [64]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices continued to oscillate. The spot price was relatively stable [65]. - **Outlook**: The import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year, and the probability of a continued decline in sugar prices is high [66]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to oscillate. The spot price was stable. The expected new - cotton yield increased [67]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price has rebounded, but the downstream consumption is average. The possible issuance of import quotas is a potential negative factor [67].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, influenced by factors such as interest rate expectations, trade agreements, and market sentiment towards non-farm payroll data. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 1, gold prices opened at $3302.91 per ounce, reached a low of $3302.19, and peaked at $3357.90 before closing at $3338.71, marking a daily increase of $35.8 or 1.08% [1][3] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to mixed economic data, with expectations for non-farm payroll data influencing gold price movements [3][5] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The decline in the US dollar index and the anticipation of interest rate cuts have provided support for gold prices, despite some technical resistance [3][5] - The market is currently awaiting key employment data, including the Challenger job cuts and ADP employment figures, which are expected to be bearish for gold prices [5] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials suggest a potential interest rate cut in July, which has bolstered bullish sentiment for gold [7] - President Trump's stance on not extending the July 9 trade negotiation deadline has raised concerns about trade agreements, further increasing market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [7] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a bearish outlook for gold prices, but they remain above the 5-month moving average, suggesting a potential for further gains unless this support is broken [9] - Short-term technical indicators show that gold prices are facing resistance at the middle Bollinger Band, but support levels are present at various moving averages [10] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels for gold include support at $3333 or $3320 and resistance at $3348 or $3360 [11]

Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by the current administration, particularly in relation to trade negotiations and internal political dynamics [1][3][21] - The term "TACO" is introduced, symbolizing the administration's tendency to backtrack on strong positions, particularly in trade matters [1][5][9] - The administration's approach to immigration enforcement is causing discontent among its base, potentially jeopardizing support from key demographics [3][4][6] Group 2 - Recent trade negotiations with Japan have highlighted internal conflicts among U.S. representatives, leading to ineffective discussions and a lack of coherent strategy [10][12][14] - The article suggests that the administration's internal strife and lack of clear direction may hinder its ability to secure favorable trade agreements [14][23] - The potential for leveraging U.S. debt as a financial tool in trade negotiations is mentioned, indicating a complex interplay of economic strategies [8][24] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the administration's fluctuating stance on trade and its implications for global economic relations [20][22][24] - It notes that the administration's focus on internal conflicts may detract from addressing external competitive pressures [21][22] - The conclusion suggests that the ongoing trade war could present opportunities for other economies to strengthen their positions [24][26]