Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The near - term outlook for the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) is one of oscillation, while the long - term view depends on the progress of the Gaza negotiations [1][4] - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher probability of success, and its bottom valuation can be anchored to the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index, 1031 points. For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiations in Gaza and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium to long term [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overview - In the past week, the absolute value of January's shipping capacity changed little, about 313,000 TEU/week, with no more pending voyages. The PA Alliance's FE4 route in the 5th week of January was confirmed as a normal dispatch, while the FE3 route in the 4th week changed from a normal dispatch to a blank sailing. Overall, January's shipping schedule became more even, with capacity between 308,000 - 318,000 TEU from the 1st to the 4th week and slightly increasing to 328,000 TEU in the 5th week [4][49] - February currently has 7 blank sailings and 5 pending voyages, with an average weekly capacity of 278,000 TEU/week (excluding the capacity of the 5 pending voyages). As of now, the first half of January (weeks 6 and 7) operates at full capacity, increasing the pressure on shipping companies to build a rolling pool before the Spring Festival, and blank sailings are mainly concentrated in the second half of January [5][49] Price - The forecast for the 52 - week SCFIS index has been revised down to between 1670 - 1730 points, and the final delivery settlement price of the 2512 contract is expected to be around 1590 - 1610 points. For the 2602 contract, key issues include freight height, inflection point time, and decline rate. The 2602 contract's delivery settlement price is the average of the SCFIS indices of the 4th, 5th, and 6th Wednesdays [6] - For the 2nd - week FAK average forecast, if OA is 2800 and PA is 2600 dollars, the FAK average is about 2700 dollars/FEU; if OA is 3100 and PA is 2800 dollars, the FAK average is about 2820 dollars/FEU. The inflection point is likely to occur in the 3rd or 4th week, and the accelerated decline may start in the 5th week [7] Demand Side - From a Chinese export perspective (valued in amount, updated to November), in November, China's exports to the US declined from - 25.2% in October to - 28.6%, increasing the drag on overall exports; exports to the EU increased by 13.9 percentage points to 14.8% compared to October; exports to ASEAN decreased from 11.0% to 8.2% but remained resilient overall; exports to Africa further increased to 27.6% [27] - From an Asian export to Europe perspective (updated to October), the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume between Asia and Europe (Northwest Europe + Mediterranean) in October was - 2.8% [30] - From an Asian export to North America perspective (updated to October), in October, the year - on - year growth rate of Asian exports to North America was - 8.0% [33] Supply Side Geopolitical Situation - Israel's Prime Minister plans to meet with the US President in Washington on December 29, 2025, to discuss issues such as Iran's nuclear activities, the overall security situation in the Middle East, and the next phase of the Gaza plan. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are coordinating on the role of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Yemen, and Saudi Arabia carried out an air strike on STC positions on December 26, 2025 [46] - The Maersk Sebarok, a 6,500 - TEU container ship, passed through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea on the morning of December 19, the first Maersk vessel to do so in nearly two years [5][46] Shipping Schedule - January's shipping capacity changed little, with the 1st - 4th week's capacity between 308,000 - 318,000 TEU and the 5th week's slightly increasing to 328,000 TEU. February has 7 blank sailings and 5 pending voyages, with an average weekly capacity of 278,000 TEU/week (excluding pending voyages) [4][49] Turnover Efficiency - Data on the sailing speed of 12,000 - TEU container ships, the number of idle 8,000 - 12,000 - TEU and 17,000 + TEU container ships are presented, as well as the congestion situation of container ships in ports across different regions such as China, the UK/Europe, the Mediterranean/Black Sea, Southeast Asia, North America, and major ports in Europe, North America, and Asia [56][59][61] Static Capacity - In December, the top ten liner companies received 2 new 12,000 - 16,999 - TEU container ships and 1 new 17,000 + TEU container ship. From January to March 2026, they are expected to receive multiple new ships of different sizes [72][73][75]

在紧张的地缘政治局势推动下，金银期货价格持续攀升，避险资产吸引力进一步增强。美军在尼日利亚 打击极端组织"伊斯兰国"，并于大西洋追击一艘失控油轮。与此同时，美元在近几个月部分丧失避险属 性后持续疲软。白银期货为75.07美元/盎司，较200日均线高出79%，创1980年以来最高溢价水平；黄金 期货报4561.20美元/盎司，较200日均线高出26%，为10月以来最大偏离幅度。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices have experienced a decline after several days of increase, with most brands dropping between 8 to 16 yuan per gram, while some prices remained stable [1] - The highest gold price in the market today is 1398 yuan per gram, while the lowest is 1300 yuan per gram, resulting in a price difference of 98 yuan per gram [1] - Platinum jewelry prices have also seen a significant drop, with a specific example being Chow Sang Sang's platinum price falling by 44 yuan per gram to 888 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - The gold recycling prices have also decreased, with notable differences among brands; for instance, the recycling price for gold is 991 yuan per gram [2] - The international gold market saw fluctuations, with spot gold reaching a high of 4525.19 USD per ounce before closing at 4480.09 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.07% [4] - The market is currently experiencing reduced liquidity due to the Christmas holiday, which has amplified price volatility, while expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have provided some support for gold prices [4]

继昨日集体上涨后，今日国内金店金价涨势继续，多家品牌金店金价突破1400元大关，创下历史新高。其中，周大福、潮 宏基、周生生报价均达1403元/克，并列成为市场最高价。上海中国黄金价格涨至1285元/克，仍为市场最低价。两者之间的 价差进一步扩大至118元/克。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年12月23日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1402 | 元/克 | 35 | 派 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1401 | 元/克 | 35 | 涨 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1403 | 元/克 | 35 | 涨 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1389 | 元/克 | 70 | 涨 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1401 | 元/克 | 35 | 涨 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1399 | 元/克 | 34 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1403 | 元/克 | 35 | 涨 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1403 | 元/克 | 36 ...

因美国总统唐纳德・特朗普加大对委内瑞拉的封锁力度，美军在数周内扣押首艘油轮后，又登船检查一 艘油轮并追查另一艘，国际油价随之走高。 经历连续两周下跌后，布伦特原油价格回升至每桶 61 美元左右。美国海岸警卫队于周六在加勒比海海 域登船检查 "世纪号" 油轮，该船装载有约 200 万桶委内瑞拉原油。同时，美方还在追踪正驶往这个拉 美国家的 "贝拉一号" 油轮。 因美国总统唐纳德・特朗普加大对委内瑞拉的封锁力度，美军在数周内扣押首艘油轮后，又登船检查一 艘油轮并追查另一艘，国际油价随之走高。 经历连续两周下跌后，布伦特原油价格回升至每桶 61 美元左右。美国海岸警卫队于周六在加勒比海海 域登船检查 "世纪号" 油轮，该船装载有约 200 万桶委内瑞拉原油。同时，美方还在追踪正驶往这个拉 美国家的 "贝拉一号" 油轮。 美国政府正不断向尼古拉斯・马杜罗政府施压，特朗普政府意在切断委内瑞拉的核心收入来源。美国已 将马杜罗政权列为外国恐怖组织，指控其参与毒品走私活动。尽管委内瑞拉仍坐拥全球最大原油储量， 但其原油出口量目前仅占全球需求的不足 1%，且大部分出口流向中国。 此外，石油输出国组织与非欧佩克产油国（OPEC+ ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have significantly risen, with London gold surpassing $4,400 and New York futures exceeding $4,430, entering a new high-stakes trading phase [2] - Key factors supporting gold prices include weak employment and inflation data, which have increased market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut next year [2] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions are driving funds into gold as a safe haven, while global central bank gold purchases and inflows into gold ETFs provide long-term support [2] Group 2 - Short-term factors that may suppress gold price increases include the risk of short-term chasing after consecutive gains, leading to potential profit-taking by some investors [2] - The possibility of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates could prompt a global capital return, posing potential pressure on assets including gold [2] - The recommended trading strategy involves waiting for a price pullback to the $4,380-$4,360 support area before considering entry, with specific stop-loss levels set [3]

来源：中国能源网 金联创认为，由于地缘局势常常充满了不确定性及不可预测性，因此对于油价的影响往往也是短暂且激 烈的。随着俄乌和谈陷入了僵局，以及美国长期以来对委内瑞拉的制裁已经使得市场有所适应，因此在 缺乏新消息面的指引下，令原油价格处于反复波动的状态。 但从基本面来看，供应过剩的局面是不可抑制的，因此原油市场整体依旧处于弱势的阶段。随着2025年 即将进入尾声，2026年1月份的原油市场正值石油消费淡季，加之元旦假期前后市场交投清淡，原油市 场或继续保持疲软的震荡态势。虽然OPEC+暂停增产，但无法抵消需求低迷对市场造成的影响。预计 WTI主流运行区间55-60美元/桶，布伦特主流运行区间58-63美元/桶。（金联创原油分析师：奚佳蕊） 15日，欧盟理事会宣布就俄罗斯"影子舰队"相关活动以及俄方"混合威胁"分别采取新一轮制裁措施。18 日，欧盟理事会发布公告称，决定对俄罗斯"影子舰队"41艘船只实施制裁。此项决定使欧盟列名制裁的 相关船只总数接近600艘。 此外，美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮事件也备受市场关注。16日，美国宣布封锁受到制裁、进出委内瑞拉的油 轮，此举可能会影响该国每天60万桶石油的出口量。委内瑞拉的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that international gold prices have retreated below $4,350, continuing a consolidation trend due to profit-taking and a reduction in long positions, rather than significant selling pressure [1] - The macroeconomic perspective shows that mid-term support factors for gold prices remain solid, with recent U.S. inflation data significantly below market expectations, enhancing the outlook for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 2 - Technically, gold maintains a strong bullish structure, remaining above key moving averages with higher lows and a well-defined upward trend [3] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the midline, indicating that bullish sentiment remains dominant, while the Bollinger Bands suggest potential for further price expansion [4] - Key short-term resistance is identified at $4,350, with a potential breakthrough leading to a retest of the historical high of $4,381 and a challenge towards the $4,400 level [4] Group 3 - Important short-term support is at $4,300, with a potential decline to $4,270 if this level is breached; stronger support is located around the $4,240 area, which corresponds to the mid-term moving average [5]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices have seen an upward adjustment, with most brands increasing their quotes after a period of stabilization, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1][4]. Price Adjustments - Lao Miao Gold has increased by 6 yuan per gram, reaching a new high of 1359 yuan per gram, while Shanghai China Gold remains the lowest at 1262 yuan per gram, with a price gap of 97 yuan per gram, slightly narrowing by 1 yuan from the previous day [1]. - Detailed quotes from various brands include: - Lao Miao Gold: 1359 yuan/gram (up 6) - Liufu Gold: 1351 yuan/gram (unchanged) - Chow Tai Fook: 1353 yuan/gram (unchanged) - Zhou Liufu: 1312 yuan/gram (up 5) [1][3]. Platinum Price Movement - Platinum jewelry prices have surged significantly, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum price increasing by 32 yuan per gram to 782 yuan per gram, indicating a strong demand in the platinum market [4]. Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has seen a slight increase of 2.6 yuan per gram, with varying prices across different brands: - Cai Bai Gold: 965.70 yuan/gram - Zhou Sheng Sheng: 941.70 yuan/gram - Chow Tai Fook: 935.20 yuan/gram - Lao Feng Xiang: 949.40 yuan/gram [4]. International Gold Market - The international spot gold price experienced fluctuations, closing at 4337.16 USD per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.05%. As of the latest update, it is reported at 4332.89 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.10% increase [7]. - The rise in gold prices is attributed to dovish comments from a potential Federal Reserve chair candidate, reinforcing market expectations for interest rate cuts, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions that support gold prices [7]. - Market analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may implement two interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026, which could continue to bolster gold prices [7].

今日周四(12月18日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于66.33一线上方，今日开盘于66.21美元/盎司，截至 发稿，现货白银暂报66.33美元/盎司，上涨0.24%，最高触及66.59美元/盎司，最低下探65.54美元/盎 司，目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 国际地缘政治局势的恶化为白银提供了强劲支撑。据Politico报道，特朗普政府近期在委内瑞拉海岸封 锁油轮的举动，是其对委总统马杜罗"渐进式施压"战略的最新体现。该战略旨在通过持续孤立和挤压而 非立即发动大规模国内行动，最终实现使马杜罗下台的目标。 知情人士透露，美方认为马杜罗政权的生存依赖石油、毒品和非法黄金走私，而美国当前行动正从这三 方面同步施压。然而，分析也承认马杜罗不会轻易屈服，其顽固态度与美国已抬高的行动预期，使双方 均缺乏让步空间。报道指出，"马杜罗在争取时间，而特朗普在争取胜利"，导致局势缓和的选择所剩无 几。 俄乌和平进展同样充满波折，提振避险需求。据国际文传电讯报道，克里姆林宫发言人Dmitry Peskov 周三向记者表示，克里姆林宫知悉部分美国官员正考虑对俄罗斯实施新制裁的计划。"显然任何的制裁 都对两国关 ...