Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a volatile phase, with expectations surrounding the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data influencing trading strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent gold price movements have shown a slight rebound, closing at $3289, indicating a small bullish trend despite overall bearish sentiment [1]. - The rebound in gold prices is attributed to increased global trade uncertainties, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and heightened geopolitical tensions [1]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is critical, as weak data could reignite rate cut expectations, potentially boosting gold prices, while strong data may reinforce a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, putting downward pressure on gold [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent rebound in gold prices was stronger than anticipated, suggesting limited adjustment space in the short term, with key support around $3270 and resistance near $3300 [2]. - A breakout above the $3300 level could lead to testing the 10 and 20-day moving averages around $3340, while a negative non-farm report could push prices down to the $3260-$3250 range [2]. - The suggested trading strategy includes short positions at $3300-$3305 with a stop loss at $3315 and a target of $3250 [3]. Group 3: Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. unemployment rate, adjusted non-farm employment figures, and average hourly wage data, all scheduled for release at 20:30 on August 1 [4]. - Additional data points include the final value of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and consumer confidence index, which will provide further insights into the economic landscape [4].

拉长时间线来看，开年以来国际金价表现亮眼，伦敦现货黄金自2625美元/盎司位置启动，一举在今年3 月中旬冲破3000美元历史性关口，更在4月下旬涨至3500美元，年内最高涨幅超33%，远超2024年27% 的全年涨幅。 不过，在狂飙之后，黄金进入震荡整理区间，截至目前，伦敦现货黄金年内涨幅回吐至25.7%。对此， 中国（香港）金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英分析指出，一方面，全球地缘军事冲突趋于缓和，且美 国政府与包括欧盟、日本在内的部分国家达成贸易关税协议，抑制了整体黄金的避险情绪。另一方面， 短期内美元处于强势状态，压制了黄金价格进一步上涨的趋势，致使目前黄金处于震荡整理的价格状 态。消息面上，当地时间7月30日，美联储公布了最新的利率决议，仍将基准利率维持在4.25%—4.50% 区间不变，未实施降息。 在上海金融与发展实验室首席专家、主任曾刚看来，金价的起伏和变化，最核心的原因在于市场情绪和 多空因素的相互作用。最直接的驱动力，是投资者对于宏观经济环境的预期不断变化。现在全球经济还 处在复苏和调整的阶段，很多数据出来后都会影响投资者的信心。另一个因素，是市场对于美联储和其 他主要央行货币政策的揣测。 " ...

Core Viewpoint - Rongyang Industrial (02078) is expected to report a loss of approximately HKD 26.6 million in the first half of 2025, following a profit of about HKD 5.9 million in the first half of 2024 [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to decline from approximately HKD 433.9 million in the first half of 2024 to HKD 242.8 million in the first half of 2025 [1] - Gross margin is expected to decrease from around 17.2% in the first half of 2024 to approximately 11.8% in the first half of 2025 [1] Contributing Factors - The shift from profit to loss is attributed to ongoing geopolitical tensions, changing trade policies, and a slower-than-expected economic recovery in several key markets, which have negatively impacted customer sentiment and order volume [1] - The decline in order volume has limited cost absorption and increased production costs, further affecting profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to a balance of structural factors between bullish and bearish sentiments, with short-term profit-taking and the Federal Reserve's unchanged policy contributing to the current consolidation phase [1][3][6]. Price Movement - After reaching a peak of $3438.80 per ounce, gold prices have retreated below $3300, with a low of $3268.02 on July 30 and a recovery to $3295 by July 31 [1][3]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have shown a significant increase, starting from $2625 per ounce and peaking at $3500, reflecting a maximum gain of over 33% this year, although the current year-to-date increase has decreased to 25.7% [3][5]. Investment Demand - Despite the recent price volatility, global demand for gold investment remains strong, with a reported 477 tons of gold investment demand in Q2 2025, a 78% year-on-year increase [5]. - The inflow into gold ETFs reached 170 tons, with the Chinese market showing record performance, contributing 464 billion RMB (approximately $65 billion) in inflows and an increase of 61 tons in holdings [5]. Central Bank Activity - In Q2 2025, global central banks added 166 tons of gold to their reserves, indicating sustained high levels of gold purchases despite a slight slowdown in pace [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures are expected to maintain central banks' interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment is influenced by changing expectations regarding the macroeconomic environment and monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and other central banks [4]. - Analysts suggest that gold prices are likely to maintain a strong medium to long-term support due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, although short-term price movements may remain volatile [6][7].

7月28日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价从上周四开始一直保持下跌，整体金价再次跌下千元大 关。其中，老凤祥黄金下跌2元/克，报价1000元/克，和周生生黄金同为最高价金店。上海中国黄金价 格还是没变化，报价981元/克，为最低价金店。今日最高与最低金店间价差缩小至19元/克。 说完国内黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年7月28日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 997 | 元/克 | 2 | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 998 | 元/克 | 5 | 跌 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 998 | 元/克 | 5 | 跌 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 990 | 元/克 | 0 | 平 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 998 | 元/克 | 5 | 跌 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1000 | 元/克 | 2 | 跌 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 998 | 元/克 | 5 | 跌 | | 周生生黄金 ...

Domestic Gold Market - The overall gold prices in domestic brand stores remained stable compared to last Friday, with Chow Sang Sang experiencing a two-day price increase, reaching 1012 CNY per gram, the highest among gold stores [1] - Shanghai China Gold quoted the lowest price at 969 CNY per gram, resulting in a price difference of 43 CNY per gram between the highest and lowest priced stores [1] - The latest gold prices from various brands are as follows: Lao Miao 1004 CNY, Liu Fu 1008 CNY, Chow Tai Fook 1008 CNY, and others, with no significant changes except for Chow Sang Sang [1] Platinum Prices - Platinum prices rebounded after a significant drop on Saturday, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry price increasing by 3 CNY to 581 CNY per gram [1] Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price saw a slight increase of 3.3 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands: the average recycling price is 765.20 CNY per gram, while Lao Feng Xiang offers the highest at 778.20 CNY [2] International Gold Market - Last Friday, spot gold prices rose, peaking at 3361.05 USD per ounce before closing at 3349.42 USD, marking a 0.31% increase [4] - As of the latest update, spot gold is trading at 3367.69 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.55% increase [4] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine [4] - Concerns over the expanding U.S. debt and potential tariff escalations are expected to continue driving the gold market [4] - Recent U.S. inflation expectations and consumer confidence data have influenced market sentiment, with inflation expectations dropping to 4.4% from a previous 5.0% [4]

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - In the first half of the year, copper prices experienced two significant upward trends, starting with a rise due to a weakening US dollar, followed by a sharp decline influenced by tariff policies, and then a recovery to stabilize around 78,500 yuan/ton [1] - The market is expected to focus on macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy, with limited negative impact from tariff policies on the macro market [2] Group 2: Supply and Refining Dynamics - New copper mines such as Sierra Gorda and Toromocho are set to commence production mid-year, but the global supply of copper concentrate remains tight [3] - Domestic smelting plants are anticipated to undergo a peak maintenance period from September to November, which will likely tighten the domestic spot market and elevate copper prices [3] Group 3: End-User Consumption - Cable manufacturing has shown a recovery in operating rates, but rising copper prices are exerting production pressure on these companies [4] - The air conditioning industry is expected to see a seasonal production increase in the second half of the year, while the automotive sector is projected to experience a production boost starting in July [4] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be driven by fundamentals, with supply and demand exhibiting a synergistic effect, leading to a potential upward trend [4]

Group 1 - The current gold price is around $3,336 per ounce, with geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties providing support, but no clear directional breakout has occurred [1] - President Trump's comments about potentially firing Fed Chairman Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [1] - New tariffs on drugs and copper from the U.S. have heightened global market risk aversion, supporting gold prices, although stronger-than-expected retail sales and jobless claims data exert downward pressure on gold [1] Group 2 - Gold is currently in a short-term downtrend, with a death cross between the 5-day and 13-day moving averages, while the 34-day moving average remains upward, indicating short-term pressure but not a complete trend reversal [2] - If gold can hold above the lower channel, there is potential for a rebound; otherwise, a breakdown could test the support of the 34-day moving average [2] - The trading plan suggests buying near $3,330 with a stop at $3,320 and a target of $3,360, emphasizing the importance of preparation and learning in trading success [2]

Group 1 - The central bank governor of Israel indicated that the economic forecasts are subject to both upward and downward risks due to the developments in geopolitical situations [1]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have declined to a low of $3305.92 per ounce following the non-farm payroll report, currently trading around $3309, reflecting weak performance [1] - President Trump is set to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss ceasefire details in the Gaza conflict, which has slightly eased market risk sentiment [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the deadline for tariff suspension has been extended to August 1, reducing market concerns [1] - Trump's tax cuts and spending bill, projected to increase U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, potentially benefiting gold in the medium to long term as a weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to foreign investors [1] Tariff Policy - In April, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of high tariffs on most major trading partners, set to expire on July 9 [2] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that tariffs will be reinstated on August 1 for countries that do not reach a trade agreement, with a letter to be sent to those nations [2] - The August 1 date is not seen as a new deadline but provides more time for trade partners to negotiate [2] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing gold prices, with mixed expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4] - Strong economic data, including 147,000 new jobs in June and a 4.1% unemployment rate, may lead the Fed to maintain a longer wait-and-see approach [4] - Market expectations suggest a potential 80 basis point easing by 2025, with possible rate cuts in September and December, and even a potential cut in July due to political pressure [4] - Recent geopolitical easing may exert pressure on gold prices, as Trump discusses ceasefire terms with Netanyahu, potentially reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The easing of geopolitical tensions may temporarily reduce gold's safe-haven demand, but long-term uncertainties remain [5] - Expansionary U.S. fiscal policy and the potential for tariff reinstatement provide underlying support for gold [5] - The Fed's dilemma regarding monetary policy may lead to short-term volatility in gold prices, with traders focusing on tariff policy developments and geopolitical changes this week [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have retraced from a high of $3450, with recent support around $3247, indicating a struggle between bulls and bears [8] - Short-term price action shows attempts to challenge the $3300 level, with current trading around $3300 after losing support [8] - Traders are advised to monitor the $3290 to $3345 range for potential breakout opportunities [8]