Group 1 - The euro to dollar exchange rate has dropped to around 1.1705, while the pound has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, surpassing the 1.3700 mark during the European session [1] - The US dollar has regained strength against the yen, breaking through the 147.00 level, and the Australian dollar is fluctuating above 0.6500 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is showing an upward trend, trading around 0.6050, and the US dollar has also strengthened against the Canadian dollar, climbing to approximately 1.3700 [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that those who challenge the dollar will pay a price, emphasizing the dollar's dominance [2] - Trump also suggested that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell misleads Congress, he should resign immediately and called for an interest rate cut [3] - According to the Wall Street Journal, National Economic Council Director Hassett is a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, having met with Trump in June [3] Group 3 - Fitch Ratings indicated that US stablecoin legislation could address key credit risks and enhance usage [4] - The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected that by the early 2070s, UK debt will exceed 270% of GDP [5] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority provided liquidity of 46.7 billion HKD to banks through the discount window [6] - The Bank of Japan's committee member noted that the weighted median inflation remains below 2%, requiring careful examination of inflation stability in Japan's economy [6] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, and indicated potential future rate cuts if mid-term inflation pressures ease [6] - A Reuters survey indicated that all 30 economists surveyed expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower the cash rate to 3.60% in August [6] Group 4 - The Thai Industrial Federation estimated that Thailand's exports have suffered losses of approximately 800 to 900 billion THB due to US tariff measures [7] - The Vietnamese Prime Minister stated that achieving a growth target of at least 8% by 2025 is a significant challenge [8] - The Bank of Thailand's meeting minutes suggested that monetary policy should remain accommodative to support economic development, with a low likelihood of a technical recession [8] Group 5 - Technical analysis for EUR/USD indicates resistance at the 2025 high of 1.1830, with support at the 55-day simple moving average at 1.1428 [9] - For AUD/USD, the Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows the pair testing the baseline, indicating potential short-term downside risk, although the overall trend remains unchanged [9] - GBP/USD is currently contesting the 2022 high of 1.3643, with support from the 21-day simple moving average at 1.3588 [10]

智通财经7月9日电，新西兰联储将基准利率维持在3.25%不变，符合市场预期。 ...

智通财经7月8日电，罗马尼亚央行维持基准利率在6.50%，符合市场预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain the cash rate at 3.85%, following a series of rate hikes and subsequent cuts since May 2022 [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The RBA has raised interest rates by a total of 425 basis points from May 2022 to November 2023, before cutting rates by 50 basis points in 2023 [1]. - The decision to keep the cash rate unchanged was made with a majority vote of 6 to 3 [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Inflation in Australia has significantly decreased since its peak in 2022, with the overall inflation rate falling to the midpoint of the target range of 2-3% in Q1 [2]. - The underlying inflation rate has also dropped to 2.9%, and the RBA anticipates that further rate cuts could bring it closer to the target midpoint [2]. - Recent CPI data suggests that inflation in Q2 may be slightly above expectations, prompting the RBA to wait for more information before making further decisions [2]. Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - While private demand appears to be recovering and household income is rising, some industries are struggling with weak demand and rising costs [3]. - The labor market remains tight, with labor supply constraints affecting business growth, and wage growth has decreased from peak levels [3]. - The RBA believes that inflation risks are balanced, but uncertainties in total demand and supply in the Australian economy warrant a cautious approach [3].

澳大利亚储备银行将基准利率维持在3.85%不变，市场预期为降息25个基点。澳储行表示，委员会对经 济前景仍持谨慎态度，特别是在总需求和总供给方面的不确定性加剧的情况下；可以再等待一些信息， 以确认通胀率有望在可持续的基础上达到2.5%。（新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Israel has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations of 4.50% [1] Summary by Category - **Monetary Policy** - The decision to keep the interest rate steady at 4.5% reflects the central bank's approach to managing economic conditions [1] - **Market Expectations** - The market had anticipated the rate to remain at 4.50%, indicating stability in investor sentiment regarding monetary policy [1]

6月，债券二级市场整体交易活跃度回温，信用债成交金额同比与环比增幅显著。在宏观流动性环境和基本面共同作 用下，信用利差呈现震荡微幅收窄态势，月末利差水平为46.32bp。展望后市，受降息预期影响，基准利率仍有下行 空间，基本面修复节奏不确定性增加，信用债收益率大概率在宽幅波动中下行，且下行幅度也将超过基准利率，推 动信用利差继续震荡收窄。 信用利差方面，整体呈现震荡中微幅收窄的态势。与去年同期相比，上升11.68bp，而较上月末则下降1.17bp，月末 利差水平为46.32bp。 统计数据显示，债券二级市场6月总成交金额378,537.89亿元，同比、环比分别增长4.39%和12.78%。 按类型划分，利率债方面，6月成交金额229,219.09亿元，同比、环比分别增加2.19%和10.94%。信用债方面，6月成 交金额77,343.19亿元，同比、环比分别增加10.20%和18.42%。 从成交信用债的特征来看，产业债成交信用等级向AA+级及以上集中，城投债成交信用等级分布则保持均匀。在久 期方面，产业债成交久期延续向中长期延伸的趋势，城投债久期拉长趋势更为明显。具体到不同级别，产业债中AA 级别债券成交久 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of floating - rate bonds in China is still small. As of the end of 2024, the outstanding amount of floating - rate bonds was 52.01 billion yuan, accounting for 0.3% of the total bond balance [34]. - The valuation of floating - rate bonds is based on the discounted cash flow method (DCF), and the difficulty lies in predicting future coupon payments and selecting the discount rate [2][54]. - The change in the benchmark interest rate is inversely related to the bond value. The farther the valuation date is from the reset date, the greater the impact of interest rate changes on the bond value. The term spread is also inversely related to the bond value when the benchmark interest rate is constant, and the impact on the bond price needs to be observed in combination with the benchmark interest rate [2]. - Floating - rate bonds are more resistant to decline in a bear market and weaker in a bull market compared to fixed - rate bonds [2]. - The floating - rate bonds imply that the 1 - year LPR will first decline and then rise in the next three years, and the implied interest - rate cut expectation of floating - rate bonds of China Development Bank is stronger than that of Agricultural Development Bank bonds [3]. - Considering the expiration of US tariff exemptions and the appreciation of the RMB, an additional 10 - 20BP interest - rate cut is expected in the second half of the year, and the decline of 1YLPR in the second half of the year is likely to be higher than the implied value of floating - rate bonds [4][99]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 China's Floating - Rate Bond Historical Changes - The issuance scale of floating - rate bonds has fluctuated and increased, with significant shrinkage in the past three years. It has experienced three rounds of expansion and adjustment, with the peak issuance scale reaching 64.16 billion yuan in 2021, and the average issuance scale from 2022 - 2024 being only 16.34 billion yuan [14][17]. - The benchmark interest rate has changed from single to diversified, from the 1 - year fixed - deposit interest rate at the beginning to various types such as SHIBOR, LPR, and DR [20][21]. - Policy - bank bonds and asset - backed securities (ABS) have alternately dominated. Since 2022, policy - bank bonds have become the main type again [26]. - The issuance term has evolved from being highly concentrated (7 - 10 years) to gradually dispersed and then re - concentrated (2 - 3 years) [28][30]. 3.2 China's Floating - Rate Bond Current Situation - As of the end of 2024, the outstanding amount of floating - rate bonds was 52.01 billion yuan, accounting for 0.3% of the total bond balance. By bond type, the top three are policy - bank bonds, ABS, and non - financial corporate credit bonds. By benchmark interest rate, the top three are the 1 - year loan prime rate (LPR), the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate, and the 5 - year loan prime rate (LPR). By issuance term, the top three are 2 - 3 years, over 10 years, and 7 - 10 years [34]. 3.3 Floating - Rate Bond Valuation Method - The valuation of floating - rate bonds is based on the DCF method, which discounts future coupon payments and principal to the current point in time. The difficulty lies in predicting future coupon payments and selecting the discount rate [54]. - The China Foreign Exchange Trade System simplifies the valuation formula by assuming that the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged after the valuation date, but this method does not reflect the market's expectation of future interest rates [56]. 3.4 Theoretical Analysis of Factors Affecting the Investment Value of Floating - Rate Bonds - The change in the benchmark interest rate is inversely related to the bond value. When the benchmark interest rate rises, the bond value falls, and vice versa. The farther the valuation date is from the reset date, the greater the impact of interest rate changes on the bond value [2][66]. - When the benchmark interest rate is constant, the term spread is inversely related to the bond value. The impact on the bond price needs to be observed in combination with the benchmark interest rate [72]. 3.5 Comparison between Floating - Rate Bonds and Fixed - Rate Bonds - In a rising - interest - rate environment, both floating - rate bonds and fixed - rate bonds will decline in price, but the decline of floating - rate bonds is smaller. In a falling - interest - rate environment, the price increase of fixed - rate bonds is greater than that of floating - rate bonds [78]. 3.6 Current Pricing Investigation of Floating - Rate Bonds - By studying the price changes of floating - rate bonds, the market's expectation of future monetary - policy trends can be inferred. The floating - rate bonds imply that the 1 - year LPR will first decline and then rise in the next three years, and the implied interest - rate cut expectation of floating - rate bonds of China Development Bank is stronger than that of Agricultural Development Bank bonds [3][83]. 3.7 Analysis of the Value of Floating - Rate Bonds from Future Interest - Rate Adjustment Range and Rhythm - Considering the expiration of US tariff exemptions and the appreciation of the RMB, an additional 10 - 20BP interest - rate cut is expected in the second half of the year, and the decline of 1YLPR in the second half of the year is likely to be higher than the implied value of floating - rate bonds. The allocation value of floating - rate bonds in the second half of the year may be lower than that of fixed - rate bonds [4][99]. - Four interest - rate cut scenarios are simulated, and the interest - rate increase rhythms at which the allocation values of floating - rate and fixed - rate bonds are in equilibrium are fitted for each scenario [100].

预计下半年出口同比下降逾10%。 希望泰国央行下调基准利率，管控泰铢汇率。 泰国商业团体：贸易谈判不太可能很快结束。 ...

美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔重申，关税影响预计将在未来几个月的通胀数据中显现，但他也承认不确定 因素依然存在。鲍威尔周二在央行领导人讨论会上说，"我们正在关注，预计夏季会看到一些更高的数 字"。但他补充道，关税影响有可能"高于或低于预期，到来的时间可能早于或晚于预期"，政策制定者 对这些有心理准备。尽管特朗普就降息施加强大压力，但美联储今年迄今未改变其基准利率。(新浪财 经) ...