Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has released data indicating a significant increase in foreign investment in China's stock and fund markets, signaling a positive outlook for the Chinese market despite a complex external environment [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - In the first half of 2025, foreign investors net increased their holdings in domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing a two-year trend of net reductions [3][4]. - The net inflow of foreign capital into China's stock market was particularly strong in May and June, with a total of $18.8 billion, reflecting a growing willingness of global capital to allocate resources to the Chinese market [3][4]. - The total foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeded $600 billion, indicating a sustained interest in Chinese debt instruments [4]. Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - The total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking a historical high for the same period [3][4]. - Non-bank sectors experienced a net inflow of $127.3 billion in cross-border funds, continuing the trend of net inflows observed since the second half of the previous year, with a 46% quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter [3][4]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Developments - The total trading volume in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market reached $21 trillion in the first half of the year, a 10.2% increase year-on-year, with spot and derivative transactions accounting for 35% and 65% respectively [4]. - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.3174 trillion, an increase of $115.1 billion from the end of 2024, indicating a stable upward trend in reserves [4]. Group 4: Policy Measures and Market Stability - SAFE announced plans to promote innovative pilot policies across more free trade zones, aiming to enhance cross-border trade facilitation and investment openness [5][6]. - The agency is preparing to eliminate the registration requirement for foreign direct investment reinvestment in China, which is expected to streamline processes and reduce operational costs for foreign enterprises [6]. - The exchange rate of the RMB against the USD appreciated by 1.9% in the first half of the year, maintaining stability within a range of 7.15 to 7.35, which serves as an automatic stabilizer for the macroeconomy and international balance of payments [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese foreign exchange market has shown resilience and stability in the first half of 2025, with the RMB appreciating against the USD by 1.9% and maintaining a stable range between 7.15 and 7.35, despite a complex external environment [2][3]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with domestic demand contributing 77% to economic growth, reflecting an increase of 17 percentage points [4]. - The foreign exchange market's stability is supported by a robust economic foundation and ongoing efforts to expand domestic demand [4]. Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, there was a bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange deficit of 25.3 billion USD, with a notable shift from deficit to surplus in May and June [2]. - The foreign exchange settlement rate was stable at 60%, while the foreign exchange purchase rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 65% [2]. Market Expectations - The foreign exchange market expectations remain stable, with no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation of the RMB anticipated [3]. - The RMB exchange rate against the USD was 7.16 at the end of Q2, appreciating slightly from 7.18 at the end of Q1 [3]. Policy and Regulation - The Chinese government is committed to maintaining a balanced international payment structure and promoting high-level opening-up, which is expected to support the stability of the foreign exchange market [4]. - The market has accumulated experience in counter-cyclical regulation, enhancing its ability to respond to external shocks [5]. Risk Management - The awareness of exchange rate risk among enterprises has improved, with the foreign exchange hedging ratio and the proportion of RMB cross-border transactions reaching historical highs of around 30% [5]. - The foreign exchange market has a rich reserve of policy tools and regulatory effectiveness, which enhances its capacity to mitigate external risks [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese foreign exchange market has demonstrated resilience amid complex external conditions, maintaining stability and showing no significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation expectations for the Renminbi [1][2][4]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In the first half of the year, the net inflow of cross-border funds from non-bank sectors reached $127.3 billion, continuing the trend from the second half of last year, with a 46% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2 [2]. - The Renminbi appreciated by 1.9% against the US dollar in the first half, fluctuating within the range of 7.15 to 7.35, indicating its role as a stabilizer for macroeconomic and international balance of payments [2][3]. - The foreign exchange market has shown balanced supply and demand, with active trading and stable foreign exchange reserves [2][4]. Group 2: International Balance of Payments - The current account surplus has been steadily increasing, maintaining a reasonable equilibrium, while the non-reserve financial account has shown a deficit roughly equivalent to the current account surplus [3]. - Direct investment inflows into China reached $31.1 billion from January to May, a 16% year-on-year increase, while securities investment net inflows were approximately $33 billion, reversing the previous year's outflow trend [3][6]. Group 3: Foreign Investment in Renminbi Assets - Foreign investment in Renminbi assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic Renminbi bonds exceeding $600 billion, a historically high level [6]. - In the first half of the year, foreign investors net increased their holdings of domestic stocks and funds by $10.1 billion, reversing a two-year trend of net reductions [6]. - The attractiveness of Renminbi assets is expected to grow, with foreign investors currently holding about 3% to 4% of the market value of domestic bonds and stocks, indicating potential for sustainable growth in foreign allocations [6][7].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1438.130, down by 7.250 or 0.50% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1285.453, down by 10.633 or 0.82% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3396.400, down by 13.900 or 0.41% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 39.120, down by 0.120 or 0.31% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Rates - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.170, up by 0.07% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.348, down by 0.10% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 147.535, up by 0.13% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.651, down by 0.20% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.797, down by 0.07% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 118952.870, up by 1572.500 or 1.34% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 114.550, down by 0.880 or 0.76% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 3698.410, down by 63.920 or 1.70% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 3.498, down by 0.052 or 1.45% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The 2-year US Treasury yield is at 3.867, up by 0.015 or 0.39% [6] - The 5-year US Treasury yield is at 3.927, up by 0.019 or 0.49% [7] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is at 4.394, up by 0.015 or 0.34% [7] - The 30-year US Treasury yield is at 4.963, up by 0.026 or 0.53% [7] - The 10-year UK Treasury yield is at 4.632, up by 0.028 or 0.61% [7] - The 10-year German Treasury yield is at 2.620, up by 0.002 or 0.08% [7] - The 10-year French Treasury yield is at 3.304, up by 0.006 or 0.18% [7] - The 10-year Italian Treasury yield is at 3.494, up by 0.007 or 0.20% [7] - The 10-year Japanese Treasury yield is at 1.512, down by 0.015 or 0.98% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The National Foreign Exchange Administration emphasizes that China's foreign exchange market is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, supported by robust economic fundamentals, steady progress in opening up, and enhanced market resilience [3][4]. Economic Fundamentals - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with domestic consumption and capital formation contributing 77% to economic growth, an increase of 17 percentage points from the previous quarter [3]. - The country is committed to expanding domestic demand as a long-term strategy, promoting the integration of technological and industrial innovation [3]. Foreign Exchange Market Resilience - The resilience of China's foreign exchange market has improved, with a more flexible exchange rate mechanism that can respond to external pressures [4]. - The corporate awareness of exchange rate risk has increased, with the foreign exchange hedging ratio and the proportion of cross-border RMB transactions reaching historical highs of around 30% [4]. Cross-Border Capital Flows - In the first half of the year, there was a net inflow of $127.3 billion in cross-border funds from non-bank sectors, continuing the trend from the second half of last year, with a 46% increase in the second quarter [5]. - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and bonds increased, with a net inflow of $10.1 billion in stocks and funds, reversing the previous two years' net outflow trend [6]. International Investment Trends - A survey indicated that 30% of global central banks plan to increase their allocation to RMB assets, reflecting the growing appeal of RMB-denominated investments for risk diversification [7]. Banking Sector Developments - Six new banks initiated foreign exchange business reforms in the first half of the year, bringing the total to 22 banks involved in these reforms [8]. Service Trade Performance - China's service trade income grew by 13% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with cross-border travel income increasing by 42% and the service trade deficit decreasing by 14% [9]. Direct Investment Trends - From January to May, net inflows of equity direct investment into China increased by 16% year-on-year, amounting to $31.1 billion [10]. Currency Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, maintaining stability within a range of 7.15 to 7.35 [11]. - The market shows no significant expectations for RMB appreciation or depreciation, indicating rational trading behavior [12]. Market Activity - The total trading volume in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market reached $21 trillion in the first half of the year, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [14]. - The combined scale of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange reached $2.3 trillion, marking the second-highest level for the same period historically [15]. - The total scale of foreign-related income and expenditure reached $7.6 trillion, a historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [16].

Core Viewpoint - The current foreign exchange market shows no significant expectations for the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB, with rational and orderly trading observed [1]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable at a reasonable equilibrium level due to high-quality economic development, steady progress in opening up, and increasing resilience in the foreign exchange market [2]. - In the first half of the year, the RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD, maintaining stability within the range of 7.15 to 7.35 [3]. Group 2: Foreign Exchange Market Activity - In the first half of the year, six new banks initiated foreign exchange business reforms, bringing the total to 22 banks involved in the reform [4]. - The trading volume in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market reached 21 trillion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [6][7]. Group 3: Cross-Border Capital Flows - From January to May, net inflows of direct investment in equity from abroad amounted to 31.1 billion USD, representing a year-on-year growth of 16% [5]. - The total scale of cross-border income and expenditure for enterprises and individuals reached 7.6 trillion USD in the first half of the year, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [8]. Group 4: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds saw a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in the first half of the year, reversing the trend of net selling observed in the past two years [9]. - The total amount of foreign-held RMB bonds exceeded 600 billion USD, indicating a stable interest in RMB assets [9]. Group 5: Service Trade Developments - In the first half of the year, service trade income grew by 13%, with cross-border travel income increasing by 42%, while the service trade deficit decreased by 14% [10]. Group 6: Global Central Bank Trends - A recent survey indicated that 30% of global central banks plan to increase their allocation of RMB assets, reflecting a growing recognition of RMB assets as important for risk diversification and yield enhancement [11].

涉外收支规模稳步增加 上半年，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支出合计7.6万亿美元，同比增长10.4%，规模创历史同期 新高，其中，人民币在跨境收支中的比重达到53%。上半年，银行结汇和售汇规模合计2.3万亿美元， 同比增长3%，规模为历史同期次高。这些数据表明，我国跨境贸易和投融资活动继续保持活跃。 跨境资金延续净流入 上半年，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境资金净流入1273亿美元，延续去年下半年以来的净流入态势，其 中，二季度净流入环比增长46%。分项目看，上半年货物贸易项下净流入保持高位，外资总体净增持境 内股票和债券，服务贸易、外资企业利润汇出平稳有序。 外汇市场供求基本平衡 上半年，银行结售汇逆差253亿美元，但月度间呈现较为明显的变化。其中，1月结售汇为逆差，2—4月 趋向基本平衡，5月和6月结售汇转为顺差，企业、个人等主体的交易行为总体理性有序。上半年，衡量 结汇意愿的外汇收入结汇率为60%，同比保持稳定；衡量购汇意愿的外汇支出售汇率为65%，同比下降 3个百分点。 据央视新闻消息，国务院新闻办今天（22日）举行新闻发布会，国家外汇管理局发布上半年外汇收支情 况。国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李 ...

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported that in the first half of 2025, the scale of cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, reached a historical high for the same period [1] Group 1 - The foreign exchange market maintained stable operations, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality [1] - Cross-border trade and investment financing were active, contributing to the record levels of cross-border income and expenditure [1] - The foreign exchange market expectations remained stable, with the RMB exchange rate maintaining basic stability and continued net inflow of cross-border funds [1] Group 2 - The supply and demand in the foreign exchange market were generally balanced, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves remained stable [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1450.620, showing an increase of 5.240 or 0.36% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1292.376, reflecting a decrease of 3.710 or 0.29% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is trading at 3403.900, down by 6.400 or 0.19% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 39.175, decreasing by 0.065 or 0.17% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - The euro to US dollar (EURUSD) is at 1.168, down by 0.08% [3] - The British pound to US dollar (GBPUSD) is at 1.348, down by 0.10% [3] - The US dollar to Japanese yen (USDJPY) is at 147.592, up by 0.17% [3] - The Australian dollar to US dollar (AUDUSD) is at 0.652, down by 0.12% [3] - The US dollar to Swiss franc (USDCHF) is at 0.799, up by 0.11% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 117355.800, down by 24.570 or 0.02% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is at 115.500, increasing by 0.070 or 0.06% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 3757.220, down by 5.110 or 0.14% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is at 3.529, decreasing by 0.020 or 0.57% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The US 2-year Treasury yield is at 3.859, up by 0.007 or 0.18% [6] - The US 5-year Treasury yield is at 3.911, increasing by 0.003 or 0.08% [7] - The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.374, down by 0.005 or 0.11% [7] - The US 30-year Treasury yield is at 4.938, up by 0.001 or 0.02% [7] - The UK 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.603, down by 0.001 or 0.02% [7] - The German 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.618, down by 0.073 or 2.71% [7] - The French 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.297, down by 0.099 or 2.92% [7] - The Italian 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.482, down by 0.094 or 2.63% [7] - The Japanese 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.520, down by 0.007 or 0.46% [7]

Group 1 - The core concept of foreign exchange rates is the exchange ratio between one country's currency and another, which is influenced by complex mechanisms [1] - Foreign exchange rates arise from international economic interactions, such as trade, investment, and labor exports, necessitating a reasonable exchange ratio for transactions [1] - The foreign exchange market is the primary venue for the formation of exchange rates, involving various participants including commercial banks, multinational corporations, and central banks [1][2] Group 2 - Supply and demand dynamics are direct factors affecting exchange rates; an increase in demand for a currency, with stable or decreasing supply, leads to appreciation of that currency [2] - Economic fundamentals, such as a country's growth rate and inflation, significantly influence exchange rates; stable economic growth attracts foreign investment, increasing demand for the currency [2] - Interest rates also play a crucial role; higher interest rates attract foreign investors, increasing demand for the currency and leading to its appreciation [3] Group 3 - Political stability is vital for attracting foreign investment, which supports the currency's value; political turmoil can lead to decreased demand for the currency and depreciation [3]