智通财经4月22日电，IMF世界经济展望报告显示，由于政策不确定性和贸易紧张局势，预计2025年美 国经济增长将放缓至1.8%，比1月份的预测下降0.9个百分点。 ...

Core Points - The incident highlights the market's high sensitivity to policy news and the current global economic uncertainty [1][5] Group 1: Market Reaction - On April 7, a false report about a potential 90-day tariff suspension led to a significant market rebound, with the Dow Jones index recovering from a 4.3% drop to a 2.3% gain, the S&P 500 from a 4.6% drop to a 3.3% gain, and the Nasdaq from a 5% drop to a 4.3% gain, reflecting a volatility of over 9 percentage points [1] - Major tech stocks like Nvidia and Tesla experienced dramatic fluctuations, with Nvidia bouncing back from an almost 8% drop to a nearly 7.5% gain, and Tesla recovering from a nearly 10% drop to a 4.5% gain [1] Group 2: Market Confidence - The White House's subsequent denial of the tariff suspension news led to a swift market reversal, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.5%, the S&P 500 by 1.1%, and the Nasdaq by 0.9% [2] - Richard Branson expressed concerns over the financial market's instability, warning of disastrous consequences for ordinary Americans and small businesses due to a weakening dollar and rising consumer prices [3] Group 3: Policy Uncertainty - The event underscores the market's vulnerability to policy uncertainty, particularly regarding the Trump administration's tariff policies, which could have broader economic implications [4] - The potential for increased living costs for ordinary Americans and the high debt levels of small businesses raise alarms for market participants [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Southeast Asian market is experiencing significant turmoil, particularly in Indonesia and the Philippines, with concerns over government policies and economic stability driving investor anxiety [2][4][12]. Group 1: Indonesia Market Dynamics - The Jakarta Composite Index fell over 4% on March 24, marking its first drop below 6000 points since 2021, with a year-to-date decline of 13.34% [4][6]. - Investor sentiment in Indonesia is increasingly uncertain, driven by fears regarding the new government's policy direction under President Prabowo, which has led to significant sell-offs in the technology and materials sectors [5][6]. - The establishment of the new sovereign wealth fund "Danantara" has raised doubts among investors, particularly regarding its potential impact on fiscal health and the risk of political interference [5][6]. - A nationwide free lunch program for schoolchildren and pregnant women, costing an estimated $28 billion annually, is expected to strain Indonesia's fiscal situation [5][6]. - Foreign capital outflow from Indonesia has reached nearly $1.8 billion this year, reflecting growing concerns over policy uncertainty since Prabowo took office [9]. Group 2: Philippines Market Dynamics - The Philippine stock market faced disruptions, including a nearly two-hour delay in trading due to connectivity issues, which may deter foreign investors [12]. - The MSCI ASEAN Index has dropped over 10% from its peak last year, indicating a broader trend of capital withdrawal from Southeast Asia [12]. - Analysts note that while Southeast Asia was initially seen as a potential beneficiary of U.S. tariff wars, specific issues within each country are now becoming apparent, affecting investor confidence [12]. Group 3: Broader Southeast Asia Trends - Southeast Asian markets are witnessing a continuous outflow of foreign capital for six consecutive months, highlighting a decline in the region's attractiveness to investors [12]. - Despite the downturn, some analysts suggest that the current low valuations in Southeast Asia may present buying opportunities, with UBS upgrading Thailand's stock market rating to "overweight" [13].

长按即可免费加入哦 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：16发财油菜君 来源：雪球 一 、 科技 " 七姐妹 " 估值泡沫与交易拥堵风险 估值水平创历史新高 2025年初 ， 美股整体前瞻市盈率及中位数均升至过去22年 （ 除疫情泡沫期外 ） 的最高水平 ， 市场乐观情绪达到极端状态 。 尤其是 " 七姐妹 " （ 苹果 、 微软 、 亚马逊 、 英伟达等 ） 的市 值占美国GDP比重接近60% ， 远超合理区间 ， 形成显著的估值泡沫 。 这种高估值在美国利率较 高时更显脆弱 ， 形成 " 泡沫易被戳破 " 的市场环境 。 三 、 特朗普政策反复放大市场不确定性 关税与产业政策扰动 交易拥堵与资金集中风险 美国家庭部门直接和间接配置于股票的金融资产比例高达43.4% ， 创历史新高 ， 市场风险承受 能力已达极限 。 资金过度集中于科技巨头 ， 导致市场流动性高度依赖少数公司的表现 。 一旦出 现负面冲击 （ 如DeepSeek的技术突破 ） ， 资金踩踏式撤离将加剧波动 。 二 、 DeepSeek打破AI垄断 ， 估值溢价逻辑崩塌 技术突破颠覆行业 ...