Market Performance - On January 20, the three major indices collectively closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.79%[3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 28,044 billion, an increase of 720 billion compared to Monday, indicating strong market support[1] Policy and Economic Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to formulate a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, aiming to create new demand through new supply[1] - The NDRC announced a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to promote price recovery, with a focus on the interaction between economic growth and price increases[5] Industry Trends - The sectors with the highest inflow of main funds on January 20 were power, infrastructure, and chemical products, while the sectors with the highest outflow were communication equipment, batteries, and military electronics[4] - The NDRC is planning to promote significant projects in high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with the digital economy expected to reach 49 trillion yuan by 2025, accounting for approximately 35% of GDP[7] Consumer Policies - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has been extended until the end of 2026, allowing eligible residents to enjoy interest subsidies on qualifying consumption during this period[9] - A national unified subsidy standard for vehicle scrapping and replacement will be implemented, optimizing fund allocation based on consumption potential and policy execution[8] Investment Initiatives - A special guarantee plan for private investment has been announced, with a scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supporting loans for small and micro enterprises[12] - The NDRC is studying the establishment of a national-level merger fund to enhance government investment and fund layout planning[14]

Core Insights - The overall funding environment remains stable, with a recovery in the bond market driven by a cooling stock market, while convertible bonds experience a collective decline [1] Group 1: Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance has issued five notifications to promote domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment aimed at increasing loans to small and micro enterprises [2] - In 2026, the Ministry of Finance plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, ensuring that total expenditure increases and key areas are adequately supported [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, with plans to optimize support policies and develop a national-level merger fund [4] Group 2: International News - Global bond markets faced a significant sell-off due to fiscal pressures and geopolitical tensions, with U.S. Treasury yields rising by at least 4 basis points [6] - The sell-off was exacerbated by concerns over the unpredictability of U.S. government policies, particularly regarding tariffs on European countries [6] Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices increased, with WTI crude rising by 1.51% to $60.34 per barrel, and natural gas prices also saw a significant rise of 9.08% [7] Group 4: Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 3,240 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 346 billion yuan for the day [8] - The funding rates showed slight increases, with DR001 rising by 5.30 basis points to 1.371% [9] Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond decreasing by 0.65 basis points to 1.834% [12] - The credit bond market experienced significant price movements, with one industrial bond seeing a price increase of over 138% [14] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market followed the equity market downwards, with major indices declining by approximately 0.64% to 0.72% [15] - The trading volume in the convertible bond market increased to 883.43 billion yuan, with 256 bonds declining in value [15]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Support - The Chinese government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds in 2025 to support "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing the economy [1][2] - The fiscal deficit rate is set at around 4%, with new government debt totaling 11.86 trillion yuan, significantly higher than previous years, to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [1][2] - The government aims to boost consumption by allocating 300 billion yuan for a trade-in program, expected to generate over 2.6 trillion yuan in related sales [1] Group 2: Support for Employment and Social Welfare - The central government has allocated 66.74 billion yuan for employment subsidies and increased funding for social insurance and public health services, enhancing residents' consumption capacity [1][3] - The government is committed to maintaining necessary levels of fiscal deficit and total debt to ensure sustained support for key areas, focusing on boosting consumption and social welfare [3] Group 3: Policies to Encourage Private Investment - New policies include a loan interest subsidy for small and micro enterprises in key industries, with a subsidy rate of 1.5% for loans up to 50 million yuan [4] - A special guarantee plan for private enterprises will provide support for medium to long-term loans needed for business expansion and upgrades, with a maximum guarantee of 20 million yuan per enterprise [4] - A risk-sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds will help reduce financing barriers, supported by central government funds [4][8] Group 4: Optimizing Consumption Support Policies - The consumer loan interest subsidy policy has been enhanced, allowing for higher subsidy amounts and broader coverage, including credit card installment payments and new consumption sectors [7] - The implementation period for these consumer loan subsidies has been extended to the end of 2026, increasing accessibility for a wider range of financial institutions [7] Group 5: Government Procurement and Market Regulation - The government aims to optimize procurement processes by establishing a comprehensive legal framework and ensuring fair treatment of all market participants [9] - Continuous efforts will be made to regulate fiscal subsidies and improve the management of government procurement to foster a more competitive market environment [9]

廖岷表示，2026年，财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，概括起来就是"总量增加、结构更优、 效益更好、动能更强"。2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水平，确保总体支出力 度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。 本报讯（记者 肖佳煊） 1月20日，财政部等部门出台一揽子政策，分别从加力提振消费、扩大民间投资 两个方面，推动扩大有效需求。同日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，财政部副部长廖岷、综合司 司长李先忠、金融司司长于红介绍发挥积极财政政策作用，推动经济社会高质量发展有关情况，并答记 者问。 关于出口退税，李先忠表示，出口退税是一项重要的税收制度安排。长期以来，中国对大多数产品实行 出口退税政策，并结合经济社会发展需要适时进行调整。近期，财政部会同国家税务总局发布公告，明 确自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏、磷化工等产品的出口退税，并分两年取消电池产品出口退税。这是在 2024年12月下调光伏、电池等产品出口退税率的基础上，结合我国实际情况进一步作出的政策调整。当 前，中国的经济社会已经进入加快绿色化、低碳化的高质量发展阶段，此次出口退税政策的调整，有利 于促进资源的高效利用，减少环 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The People's Bank of China kept the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively, remaining unchanged for eight consecutive months [3] - Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that this year, the NDRC will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, creating new demand with new supply and providing strong innovation measures and factor guarantees [3] - On January 20, Liao Min, Deputy Minister of Finance, stated at a press conference that in 2026, the fiscal department will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, summarized as "increasing in total, better in structure, more effective, and stronger in momentum." The fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure in 2026 will be maintained at necessary levels to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases" and the protection of key areas "only strengthens"[3] - US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said that the interest rates are too high. If the interest rates are lowered by 100 basis points, the US economic growth rate will reach 6% or higher [3] Group 2: Key Concerns - Key commodities to focus on include silver, coking coal, coke, glass, and soda ash [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Non-metallic building materials had a night session increase of 2.00%, precious metals 37.37%, oilseeds and oils 7.92%, soft commodities 2.70%, non-ferrous metals 24.49%, coal, coking, and steel minerals 9.70%, energy 2.17%, chemicals 9.61%, grains 1.13%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.91% [4] Group 4: Category Asset Performance - In equities, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of -0.01%, a monthly increase of 3.65%, and a year-to-date increase of 3.65; the S&P 500 had a daily decline of -2.06%, a monthly decline of -0.71%, and a year-to-date decline of -0.71 [6] - In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.30%, and a year-to-date increase of 0.30; the 5-year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.11%, and a year-to-date increase of 0.11 [6] - In commodities, the CRB Commodity Index had a daily increase of 1.42%, a monthly increase of 2.53%, and a year-to-date increase of 2.53; WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 3.76%, and a year-to-date increase of 3.76 [6] - In other assets, the US Dollar Index had a daily decline of -0.51%, a monthly increase of 0.28%, and a year-to-date increase of 0.28; the CBOE Volatility Index had a daily increase of 0.00%, a monthly increase of 26.02%, and a year-to-date increase of 26.02 [6]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2026 年 1 月 21 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：1月20日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 31 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is set to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2025, focusing on economic growth, social welfare, and structural transformation to ensure sustainable development in the long term [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The fiscal policy for 2025 will emphasize four main areas, including increased counter-cyclical adjustments, with a deficit rate set at around 4%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous year [2] - New government debt issuance will reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to the previous year, significantly exceeding average levels from prior years [2] - Special government bonds worth 500 billion yuan will be issued to bolster the core tier-one capital of major state-owned commercial banks [2] Group 2: Consumer Stimulus - A long-term special bond issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan will support consumption, including 300 billion yuan allocated for a trade-in program for consumer goods, expected to drive sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan [2] - Policies will be introduced to stimulate consumption from both supply and demand sides, including interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and support for new consumption models [2] - Adjustments to duty-free shop and tax refund policies will be made to encourage and expand related consumer spending [2] Group 3: Social Welfare Enhancements - Employment support funds of 66.74 billion yuan will be allocated to enhance employment stability, alongside expanded social insurance subsidies and reduced unemployment insurance rates [3] - Fiscal subsidies for residents' medical insurance and basic public health services will be raised to 700 yuan and 99 yuan per person per year, respectively [3] - A 2% increase in basic pension levels for retirees will be implemented, along with a gradual rollout of free preschool education [3] Group 4: Risk Management and Development - The government will continue to manage hidden debt replacement, with 2 trillion yuan allocated for replacing existing hidden debts [3] - An additional 800 billion yuan in new special bonds will be issued to enhance local government financial capacity [3] - The focus will be on maintaining a stable overall fiscal operation while ensuring that key areas receive robust support [3] Group 5: Financial Collaboration - A package of fiscal and financial policies aimed at promoting domestic demand will be introduced, including interest subsidies for loans to small and micro enterprises in key industries [6][7] - A special guarantee plan for private investment will be launched, with a single credit limit set at 20 million yuan [7] - The government will enhance support for private enterprises through risk-sharing mechanisms for bond issuance, helping to lower financing barriers [7]

1月20日，自然资源部和住房城乡建设部发布关于进一步支持城市更新行动若干措施的通知。其中提 到，利用存量土地、房产资源发展国家支持产业、行业的，可享受一定年期内不改变用地主体和规划条 件的过渡期政策，过渡期原则上不超过5年。对老旧住房自主更新项目，可采用直接按户首次登记等方 式提供不动产登记服务。 上海发布《加强期现联动提升有色金属大宗商品能级行动方案》，加强市场之间的联动发展，合力提高 上海有色金属大宗商品的资源配置能力和全球定价影响力，助力上海"五个中心"建设。据上海市委金融 办介绍，《行动方案》主要包括三部分内容18项措施。 海外要闻： 宏观要闻： 1月20日，财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上表示，2026年，财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财 政政策，概括起来就是"总量增加、结构更优、效益更好、动能更强"。2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和 支出总量将保持必要水平，确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。 财政部发布通知，将个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施期限延长至2026年底，政策到期后，将根据实施效 果视情研究延长政策期限等。此外，在20日上午举行的国新办新闻发布会上，国家发改委有关负责 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the effectiveness of the 2025 fiscal policy in supporting current economic growth while promoting long-term structural transformation for sustainable development [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to utilize various policy tools, including funding support, tax incentives, and government procurement, to foster technological innovation and industrial integration [1][2] - Central government technology spending increased by 10%, significantly outpacing the growth of the general public budget, with total R&D investment expected to reach 3.63 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining the world's second position [1][2] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance is implementing tax incentives to reduce the tax burden on enterprises engaged in technological innovation, facilitating access to financing for small and medium-sized enterprises [2][3] - A collaborative innovation model in government procurement is being promoted, along with insurance compensation policies for first-time products, to enhance the commercialization of innovative results [2] - The Ministry of Finance will continue to adopt a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on increasing total expenditure while ensuring the quality and effectiveness of spending [2]

◎记者 白丽斐 李苑 1月20日，财政部副部长廖岷在国新办新闻发布会上回答上海证券报记者提问时表 示，激发民间投资是此次一揽子政策的"重头戏"。期待通过这一套"组合拳"，实实在在地助力企业节约 融资成本、增强盈利，更好地激发民间投资这"一池春水"。 当天，财政部等部门发布实施民间投资专 项担保计划、优化实施设备更新贷款财政贴息政策、实施中小微企业贷款贴息政策等一揽子政策，其中 四项是支持民间投资的政策。此外，财政部还就2026年积极财政政策支持方向、加快培育新动能、推进 全国统一大市场建设等市场热点作出回应。 政策同向发力 助力企业降低融资成本和融资门槛 此次支持 民间投资的四项政策，惠及领域很广，支持力度比较大，工具箱也很丰富，有信贷、有贴息、有担保、 有补偿。 廖岷在回答上海证券报记者提问时表示，几项政策同向发力，对企业来说主要有两个方面直 接利好：一方面，降低融资成本，解决民营企业融资贵的问题；另一方面，降低融资门槛，解决民营企 业融资难的问题。 比如一家企业想申请一笔2000万元的中长期贷款，但可能自身的信用水平还不够， 这就需要担保进行增信的支持。传统的担保模式下，单个企业可获得的担保额度一般不超过 ...