：sunfeng@chinastock.com.cn 研究所 基本面分析报告 金融衍生品日报 2025 年 01 月 21 日 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号： F0211891 投资咨询从业证号： Z000567 ：021-65789277 研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号： F3053225 投资咨询从业证号： Z0015885 ：shenchen_qh@chinastock.com.cn 金融衍生品日报 一、财经要闻 1. 1 月 20 日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍发挥积极财政政策作用，推动经济社会 高质量发展有关情况。财政部副部长廖岷在会上表示，2025 年，更加积极的财政政策兼顾当 前与长远，既有力支持经济增长、办好民生实事，又有效推动中国经济结构转型，为经济社 会中长期可持续发展打下坚实基础。 2. 国新办 1 月 20 日举行新闻发布会，介绍落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五" 实现良好开局有关情况。国家发展改革委副主任王昌林在会上表示，坚持把发展经济的着力 点放在实体经济上，加快构建现代化产业体系。要发挥好国家创业投资基金行业标杆作用， 研究设立国家级并购基金，加强政府投资基金布局规划和投 ...

根据国家统计局近日发布的数据，2025年中国经济顶住外部冲击，全年经济增长目标顺利实现。2026年 一季度项目储备和政策储备充足，需要提早发力，形成实物工作量，尽快实现稳投资，并借助春节假期 临近，大力提振消费。随着部分领域出口退税的下调，更多资金将用于畅通国内大循环。 2025年社会融资规模稳中有升，政府债券成为主力支撑 2025年12月金融数据略好于市场预期。央行数据显示，12月社会融资规模增量为22080亿元，同比少增 6457亿元。2025年全年，社会融资规模增量累计35.6万亿元，较2024年32.3万亿元的水平多增3.34万亿 元，这与年初积极财政政策导向和广义财政赤字发力支撑社融走高有关。2025年广义财政赤字的扩张支 撑全年社融同比多增。 2025年12月M1同比增速为3.8%，较2024年12月的1.2%有所回升，2025年12月M2同比增速为8.5%，高 于2024年12月的7.3%。2025年居民部门新增存款仍处于较高水平，但同比增幅在存款利率持续下降和 股市指数上升的双重影响下受到影响。而与之相对应的是，在股票市场预期持续好转的情况下，2025年 全年非银存款较2024年实现了倍增。 ...

人民日报海外版记者 汪文正 1月20日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍发挥积极财政政策作用，推动经济社会高质量发展有关情 况。财政部副部长廖岷在会上表示，2025年，更加积极的财政政策兼顾当前与长远，既有力支持经济增 长、办好民生实事，又有效推动中国经济结构转型，为经济社会中长期可持续发展打下坚实基础。 体现更加积极的政策取向 廖岷介绍，2025年财政政策主要在4个方面发力，体现了更加积极的政策取向，为宏观经济稳中有 进提供了重要支撑： 加大逆周期调节力度。一是2025年赤字率按4%左右安排、比上年提高1个百分点；新增政府债务规 模11.86万亿元，比上年增加2.9万亿元，远超此前几年平均水平。二是发行特别国债5000亿元，用于补 充国有大型商业银行核心一级资本；三是安排5000亿元地方政府债务结存限额，用于补充地方政府综合 财力和扩大有效投资。 着力提振消费。一是发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，持续支持"两重""两新"，其中安排消费品以 旧换新资金3000亿元，带动相关商品销售额超2.6万亿元。二是从供需两端激发消费潜力，出台实施个 人消费贷款和服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策，支持开展消费新业态、新模式和新场景试点 ...

Market Performance - On January 20, the three major indices collectively closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.01%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.97%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.79%[3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 28,044 billion, an increase of 720 billion compared to Monday, indicating strong market support[1] Policy and Economic Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to formulate a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, aiming to create new demand through new supply[1] - The NDRC announced a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to promote price recovery, with a focus on the interaction between economic growth and price increases[5] Industry Trends - The sectors with the highest inflow of main funds on January 20 were power, infrastructure, and chemical products, while the sectors with the highest outflow were communication equipment, batteries, and military electronics[4] - The NDRC is planning to promote significant projects in high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with the digital economy expected to reach 49 trillion yuan by 2025, accounting for approximately 35% of GDP[7] Consumer Policies - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has been extended until the end of 2026, allowing eligible residents to enjoy interest subsidies on qualifying consumption during this period[9] - A national unified subsidy standard for vehicle scrapping and replacement will be implemented, optimizing fund allocation based on consumption potential and policy execution[8] Investment Initiatives - A special guarantee plan for private investment has been announced, with a scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supporting loans for small and micro enterprises[12] - The NDRC is studying the establishment of a national-level merger fund to enhance government investment and fund layout planning[14]

Core Insights - The overall funding environment remains stable, with a recovery in the bond market driven by a cooling stock market, while convertible bonds experience a collective decline [1] Group 1: Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance has issued five notifications to promote domestic demand, including a 500 billion yuan special guarantee plan for private investment aimed at increasing loans to small and micro enterprises [2] - In 2026, the Ministry of Finance plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, ensuring that total expenditure increases and key areas are adequately supported [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand, with plans to optimize support policies and develop a national-level merger fund [4] Group 2: International News - Global bond markets faced a significant sell-off due to fiscal pressures and geopolitical tensions, with U.S. Treasury yields rising by at least 4 basis points [6] - The sell-off was exacerbated by concerns over the unpredictability of U.S. government policies, particularly regarding tariffs on European countries [6] Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices increased, with WTI crude rising by 1.51% to $60.34 per barrel, and natural gas prices also saw a significant rise of 9.08% [7] Group 4: Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 3,240 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 346 billion yuan for the day [8] - The funding rates showed slight increases, with DR001 rising by 5.30 basis points to 1.371% [9] Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed signs of recovery, with the yield on the 10-year government bond decreasing by 0.65 basis points to 1.834% [12] - The credit bond market experienced significant price movements, with one industrial bond seeing a price increase of over 138% [14] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market followed the equity market downwards, with major indices declining by approximately 0.64% to 0.72% [15] - The trading volume in the convertible bond market increased to 883.43 billion yuan, with 256 bonds declining in value [15]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Support - The Chinese government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds in 2025 to support "two new" and "two heavy" initiatives, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy aimed at stabilizing the economy [1][2] - The fiscal deficit rate is set at around 4%, with new government debt totaling 11.86 trillion yuan, significantly higher than previous years, to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments [1][2] - The government aims to boost consumption by allocating 300 billion yuan for a trade-in program, expected to generate over 2.6 trillion yuan in related sales [1] Group 2: Support for Employment and Social Welfare - The central government has allocated 66.74 billion yuan for employment subsidies and increased funding for social insurance and public health services, enhancing residents' consumption capacity [1][3] - The government is committed to maintaining necessary levels of fiscal deficit and total debt to ensure sustained support for key areas, focusing on boosting consumption and social welfare [3] Group 3: Policies to Encourage Private Investment - New policies include a loan interest subsidy for small and micro enterprises in key industries, with a subsidy rate of 1.5% for loans up to 50 million yuan [4] - A special guarantee plan for private enterprises will provide support for medium to long-term loans needed for business expansion and upgrades, with a maximum guarantee of 20 million yuan per enterprise [4] - A risk-sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds will help reduce financing barriers, supported by central government funds [4][8] Group 4: Optimizing Consumption Support Policies - The consumer loan interest subsidy policy has been enhanced, allowing for higher subsidy amounts and broader coverage, including credit card installment payments and new consumption sectors [7] - The implementation period for these consumer loan subsidies has been extended to the end of 2026, increasing accessibility for a wider range of financial institutions [7] Group 5: Government Procurement and Market Regulation - The government aims to optimize procurement processes by establishing a comprehensive legal framework and ensuring fair treatment of all market participants [9] - Continuous efforts will be made to regulate fiscal subsidies and improve the management of government procurement to foster a more competitive market environment [9]

廖岷表示，2026年，财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，概括起来就是"总量增加、结构更优、 效益更好、动能更强"。2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水平，确保总体支出力 度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。 本报讯（记者 肖佳煊） 1月20日，财政部等部门出台一揽子政策，分别从加力提振消费、扩大民间投资 两个方面，推动扩大有效需求。同日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，财政部副部长廖岷、综合司 司长李先忠、金融司司长于红介绍发挥积极财政政策作用，推动经济社会高质量发展有关情况，并答记 者问。 关于出口退税，李先忠表示，出口退税是一项重要的税收制度安排。长期以来，中国对大多数产品实行 出口退税政策，并结合经济社会发展需要适时进行调整。近期，财政部会同国家税务总局发布公告，明 确自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏、磷化工等产品的出口退税，并分两年取消电池产品出口退税。这是在 2024年12月下调光伏、电池等产品出口退税率的基础上，结合我国实际情况进一步作出的政策调整。当 前，中国的经济社会已经进入加快绿色化、低碳化的高质量发展阶段，此次出口退税政策的调整，有利 于促进资源的高效利用，减少环 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The People's Bank of China kept the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively, remaining unchanged for eight consecutive months [3] - Wang Changlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that this year, the NDRC will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, creating new demand with new supply and providing strong innovation measures and factor guarantees [3] - On January 20, Liao Min, Deputy Minister of Finance, stated at a press conference that in 2026, the fiscal department will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, summarized as "increasing in total, better in structure, more effective, and stronger in momentum." The fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure in 2026 will be maintained at necessary levels to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases" and the protection of key areas "only strengthens"[3] - US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said that the interest rates are too high. If the interest rates are lowered by 100 basis points, the US economic growth rate will reach 6% or higher [3] Group 2: Key Concerns - Key commodities to focus on include silver, coking coal, coke, glass, and soda ash [4] Group 3: Night Session Performance - Non-metallic building materials had a night session increase of 2.00%, precious metals 37.37%, oilseeds and oils 7.92%, soft commodities 2.70%, non-ferrous metals 24.49%, coal, coking, and steel minerals 9.70%, energy 2.17%, chemicals 9.61%, grains 1.13%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.91% [4] Group 4: Category Asset Performance - In equities, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of -0.01%, a monthly increase of 3.65%, and a year-to-date increase of 3.65; the S&P 500 had a daily decline of -2.06%, a monthly decline of -0.71%, and a year-to-date decline of -0.71 [6] - In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.30%, and a year-to-date increase of 0.30; the 5-year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.09%, a monthly increase of 0.11%, and a year-to-date increase of 0.11 [6] - In commodities, the CRB Commodity Index had a daily increase of 1.42%, a monthly increase of 2.53%, and a year-to-date increase of 2.53; WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 3.76%, and a year-to-date increase of 3.76 [6] - In other assets, the US Dollar Index had a daily decline of -0.51%, a monthly increase of 0.28%, and a year-to-date increase of 0.28; the CBOE Volatility Index had a daily increase of 0.00%, a monthly increase of 26.02%, and a year-to-date increase of 26.02 [6]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2026 年 1 月 21 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：1月20日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | 31 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is set to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2025, focusing on economic growth, social welfare, and structural transformation to ensure sustainable development in the long term [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Measures - The fiscal policy for 2025 will emphasize four main areas, including increased counter-cyclical adjustments, with a deficit rate set at around 4%, up by 1 percentage point from the previous year [2] - New government debt issuance will reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to the previous year, significantly exceeding average levels from prior years [2] - Special government bonds worth 500 billion yuan will be issued to bolster the core tier-one capital of major state-owned commercial banks [2] Group 2: Consumer Stimulus - A long-term special bond issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan will support consumption, including 300 billion yuan allocated for a trade-in program for consumer goods, expected to drive sales exceeding 2.6 trillion yuan [2] - Policies will be introduced to stimulate consumption from both supply and demand sides, including interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and support for new consumption models [2] - Adjustments to duty-free shop and tax refund policies will be made to encourage and expand related consumer spending [2] Group 3: Social Welfare Enhancements - Employment support funds of 66.74 billion yuan will be allocated to enhance employment stability, alongside expanded social insurance subsidies and reduced unemployment insurance rates [3] - Fiscal subsidies for residents' medical insurance and basic public health services will be raised to 700 yuan and 99 yuan per person per year, respectively [3] - A 2% increase in basic pension levels for retirees will be implemented, along with a gradual rollout of free preschool education [3] Group 4: Risk Management and Development - The government will continue to manage hidden debt replacement, with 2 trillion yuan allocated for replacing existing hidden debts [3] - An additional 800 billion yuan in new special bonds will be issued to enhance local government financial capacity [3] - The focus will be on maintaining a stable overall fiscal operation while ensuring that key areas receive robust support [3] Group 5: Financial Collaboration - A package of fiscal and financial policies aimed at promoting domestic demand will be introduced, including interest subsidies for loans to small and micro enterprises in key industries [6][7] - A special guarantee plan for private investment will be launched, with a single credit limit set at 20 million yuan [7] - The government will enhance support for private enterprises through risk-sharing mechanisms for bond issuance, helping to lower financing barriers [7]