Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole Symposium this year highlighted the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, with Chairman Powell indicating a potential interest rate cut in September, amidst conflicting economic signals and political pressures [5][6][7]. Group 1: Economic Signals and Fed's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is grappling with inflation above the 2% target and signs of a weakening labor market, creating a complex environment for decision-making [5][6]. - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted the conflicting signals and the difficulty of timing policy changes during transitional periods [6]. - Powell's remarks suggested that tariffs are impacting prices, but the long-term effects on inflation remain uncertain [7]. Group 2: Political Pressures - Political pressure on the Fed is intensifying, particularly from President Trump, who is advocating for rate cuts and threatening to dismiss officials over controversies [6][7]. - The atmosphere at the symposium was notably tense, with increased security measures reflecting the heightened scrutiny of the Fed's actions [6]. Group 3: Fed's Policy Framework - Powell introduced a new framework aimed at guiding the Fed's approach to achieving inflation and employment targets, marking a shift from previous strategies [8]. - This new strategy emphasizes the importance of an independent Federal Reserve in addressing economic challenges effectively [9][10]. Group 4: Global Economic Implications - Following Powell's speech, the euro strengthened against the dollar, raising concerns about potential downward risks to inflation in the Eurozone [11]. - The interconnectedness of the U.S. economy with global markets means that a slowdown in U.S. growth could have significant implications for other economies [11].

Sasaki表示，投资者必须考虑的一个因素是特朗普的贸易协议，这些协议要求欧洲、日本和韩国等国在 美国投资数千亿美元。"如果有大量投资进入美国，最终美元将得到支撑，美国股市也将得到支撑。因 此，做空美元或美国资产可能只会让你亏钱。" 美国总统特朗普再次重创美联储独立性，全球投资者周二遭受冲击，他们在政策被政治化的担忧与市场 可能获得的回报之间左右为难。 特朗普宣布解雇美联储理事库克的决定令市场感到意外，尽管他上周已明确表示库克是目标之一，且数 月来一直攻击主席鲍威尔，以此作为其迫使美联储降息行动的一部分。 Capital.com高级金融市场分析师Kyle Rodda表示，"这是美国这座大厦及其可投资性上出现的又一道裂 缝。" Rodda说，他担心特朗普政府的动机，认为此举并非为了维护美联储的完整性，而是为了在美联储安插 自己的人马，"这又回到了对体制的信任问题上。" 尽管库克的离任尚未确定，且她已对特朗普将其免职的权力提出异议，但特朗普声称解雇"立即生效"， 而此时距离美联储政策会议仅剩两周，这对投资者来说是另一个担忧。 尽管如此，市场反应平淡。短期美债收益率小幅下跌，而市场预期这种强制性货币宽松将导致通胀， ...

智通财经APP注意到，尽管投资者对经济放缓的迹象和过高的股市估值感到担忧，但他们正从美国企业 界获得一些安慰。这种安慰来自企业的营收预测。 尽管投资者对特朗普总统的贸易战和美联储的货币政策仍存不确定性，但企业的营收预测持续改善。 杰富瑞的分析显示，在本季度调整了营收预期的标普500指数成分股公司中，有44%上调了预期——这 是自2021年以来的最高比例。而下调预期的比例仅为14%，是该公司自2015年有数据以来的最低水平。 "管理层基本上没有理由在他们没有100%把握的事情上提高指引，因为他们知道这么做的后果，"杰富 瑞股票研究产品管理高级副总裁安德鲁·格林鲍姆表示。"我认为这很大程度上是推动股市上涨的动 力。" 美联储官员正在应对仍高于2%目标且正在上升的通胀，以及显示疲软迹象的就业数据。关税将如何影 响这些因素的不确定性也日益凸显。 然而美国企业界几乎没有表现出担忧的迹象。 摩根士丹利对财报电话会议的分析发现，随着公司在4月初爆发的全球贸易战后重新调整展望，本季 度"订单簿"和"上调指引"的提及率升至近期高点。 通信服务、金融、非必需消费品和信息技术是标普500指数中，过去几个月2025年和2026年每股 ...

冉学东 7月份的一份非农就业报告，把鲍威尔的货币政策思路一下子推向了宽松，这在杰克逊霍尔年会讲话中 体现得非常明显。鲍威尔认为美国经济遭遇了关税和移民政策的冲击，向上的通胀和向下的就业同时交 织在一起。市场认为，9月份美联储降息已经是箭在弦上，不得不发。 8月初公布的7月份美国就业数据，几乎超出所有人的预期。美国7月非农新增就业人数骤降至7.3万人， 创9个月来最低纪录，也大幅不及预期的10.4万人。更令人震惊的是，5月和6月数据被大幅下修。5月非 农新增就业人数下修12.5万，从原先的14.4万修正为1.9万；6月则下修13.3万，从14.7万修正为1.4万。经 此次修正，5月和6月的新增就业减少了25.8万。与此同时，美国7月失业率回升至4.2%，符合预期的 4.2%，前值4.1%。就业数据下修幅度过大，以致特朗普恼羞成怒，一气之下解雇了劳工统计局局长。 也就是说，5月至6月数据有误，基于这些数据，美联储此前的一些表态也存在偏差。而鲍威尔最关注的 就是就业。美联储之所以在7月末的议息会议上能够笃定地按兵不动，就是因为就业"并未走弱"。 鲍威尔在这次会议上说，并没有看到就业市场走弱，就业市场仍然是平衡的，许 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swedish central bank indicates a potential for interest rate cuts later this year if inflationary pressures subside as expected [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Swedish central bank has maintained the key interest rate at 2.00% during the latest monetary policy meeting [1] - The next policy decision is scheduled for September 22 [1] - The central bank's governor, Teden, noted that while some indicators suggest economic activity may rise soon, there remains significant uncertainty [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - The central bank is open to further interest rate cuts due to favorable inflation prospects [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Weekly Report (Gold and Silver) [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Fed Chair Powell's remarks on potential policy adjustment due to weak employment supply - demand, along with Trump's pressure, have raised the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases may lead to an upward - trending precious metals market. It is recommended that investors go long on dips [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Data and Central Bank Policies - US: The PPI annual rate and core CPI annual rate in July increased. The 8 - month one - and five - year inflation expectations were 4.9% and 3.9%, higher than expected. The outstanding public debt was $3.72 trillion, up $96.8 billion from last week. The Treasury plans to raise cash reserves to $850 billion by the end of September and issue over $1 trillion in bonds in Q3. The Fed's reserve balance decreased, while the Treasury's cash account increased. The Fed's discount and seasonal loans to commercial banks changed, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased [7][11][17] - Europe: The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone and German August manufacturing PMIs were higher than expected. The ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [2] - UK: The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce £100 billion in government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. It may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [2] - Japan: The July consumer price index CPI (CPI) annual rate in Japan (Tokyo) was 3.1% (3.1%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The Q2 GDP quarterly rate was 0.3%, higher than expected. There is an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [3] Market Performance - Bond Market: US short -, medium -, and long - term Treasury yields weakened. Medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury yields declined. The spread between long - and short - term Treasury yields widened. The spread between US and German (Japanese) medium - and long - term Treasury yields decreased [21][25][28][51] - Stock Market: Not mentioned in the report - Commodity Market: Gold: COMEX gold non - commercial long - to - short ratio decreased, ETF holdings decreased, total inventory of COMEX and SHFE gold decreased. Gold futures and spot spreads were at a relatively low level, and the basis was also at a low level. Silver: COMEX silver non - commercial long - to - short ratio increased, ETF holdings increased, total inventory of COMEX, SHFE, and SGE silver increased. Silver futures and spot spreads and basis were within a reasonable range [60][79][83] - Foreign Exchange Market: The euro - to - dollar exchange rate increased, and the dollar - to - RMB exchange rate decreased [54] Investment Strategies - Precious Metals: For gold, investors are advised to go long on dips, with attention to support and resistance levels. For gold spreads, investors can consider short - term, light - position long - entry opportunities for gold futures spreads and basis. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for most spread arbitrage opportunities [3][68][72] - Others: Investors can consider short - term, light - position long - entry opportunities for "gold - to - silver ratio", "gold - to - oil ratio", and "gold - to - copper ratio" [97][100]

U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday following Monday’s lower close. Futures of major benchmark indices were lower.The decline followed President Donald Trump‘s firing of Lisa Cook, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, on Monday. Cook was removed from her position, citing what Trump referred to as "deceitful and potentially criminal conduct" based on a "criminal referral" from William J. Pulte, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, to U.S. Attorney General Pamela Bondi earlier this mo ...

独立宏观策略师、前日本金融厅顾问Harry Ishikawa说，"情况不妙，你无法粉饰它，财务省会试图给它 设上限，他们会调整发行或其他任何手段来做到这一点。" 在美国总统特朗普试图罢免美联储理事库克后，日本国债收益率周二测试了历史高点，因为特朗普此举 引发了市场对一个可能变得更鸽派的美联储的担忧。 周二，30年期日本国债收益率重回3.215%的历史最高点，在特朗普宣布消息后，类似期限的美债收益 率跳升了5个基点，从而拉高了日债收益率。 最长期限的日本国债收益率创下前所未有的高点，使东京旨在控制这个发达世界最重债务负担（约占 GDP的250%）的目标变得复杂化。日本财务大臣加藤胜信周二表示，财务省将密切监控日本国债市场 的动向，并推行适当的债务管理。 共同社报道称，财务省计划在下一财年的预算中为偿债成本申请超过32万亿日元（约2172亿美元）的资 金，这是一个创纪录的数额。 作为世界上最大的债权国，且主权收益率在全球范围内属于最低之列，日本市场对其他市场的利率变动 高度敏感。 "如果没有买家，收益率将不可避免地继续小幅走高，而现在没有投资者愿意购买30年期的 日本国债，如果市场预期美联储将放任通胀，那么美国长 ...

汇通财经APP讯——周一（8月25日）金价出现微幅回调，从上周五创下的两周新高回落至周一的3365.55美元/盎司，跌幅约0.18%，而周二 （8月26日）亚市早盘一度续跌0.4%至3351.97美元/盎司，市场认为美联储9月降息前景仍有变数，周一美元指数上涨0.49%，创下近一个月最 大单日涨幅，压制金价走势，而且金价在上周五冲高后存在技术性回调需求，也拖累金价表现。投资者正屏息等待本周五的美国PCE通胀数 据，这场数据风暴或将决定黄金下一阶段的方向性突破。 金价短期高点后回调 美联储主席鲍威尔的最新表态无疑是近期金价波动的核心催化剂。上周五，在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上，鲍威尔明确指出美国就业市场的风险正在 逐步上升，同时强调通胀压力依然存在，但美联储尚未就具体决策敲定。这番言论被市场解读为鸽派信号，迅速推升了9月降息的预期概率。 根据芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，这一概率已飙升至超过84%，远高于一个月前的61.9%。受此影响，金价在上周五一度攀升至近两周 高点，反映出投资者对宽松货币政策的乐观预期。然而，周一的金价回调则显示出市场在消化这些信息后的谨慎态度。 专家分析认为，鲍威尔的讲话虽强化了降息可 ...

浦银国际研究 宏观洞察 | 宏观经济 月度美国宏观洞察：关税大致尘 埃落定，9 月剑指重启降息？ 特朗普关税政策更新——"新关税框架"已浮现，仍需关注行业关税和 中美谈判。虽然印度、瑞士、加拿大和墨西哥尚未与美国达成协议，但 是随着美国接连和日本和欧盟两大贸易伙伴达成协议，以及新关税税率 的公布，关税政策的不确定性显著下降。然而，我们并不认为关税风险 已经完全化解。接下来行业关税和中美贸易谈判将会是美国关税政策不 确定性的重点所在：首先，自特朗普今年上任以来，美国商务部启动的 "232 调查"数量显著增加。短期来说，芯片和药品的调查结果和潜在 关税加征的影响不容小觑。中期来看，我们不能排除有更多行业被卷入 "232 调查"的可能性，这将继续牵动市场对关税问题的担忧，尽管整 体风险或已显著小于此前对"对等关税"全部实施的担忧。其次，中美 关税谈判或仍存在变数。中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明的公布过程 较为曲折。 美国经济数据回顾——7 月通胀略微回升但符合预期；实体经济数据喜 忧参半。美国核心 CPI 通胀率 7 月微升。关税对商品价格的影响正在逐 渐显露，不过相对 6 月数据并未显著增强。7 月数据最为惹眼的 ...