Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of global financial markets amid recent volatility, emphasizing the need for investors to reconsider the sustainability of strong asset inflows into the U.S. over the past decade as the U.S. aims to balance trade deficits and reduce current account deficits [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has recovered all losses since April 2, marking a nine-day consecutive rise, the longest streak since 2004, despite a cumulative decline of 5.86% over the past three months [1]. - The high valuations of U.S. equities, particularly in the technology sector, remain a concern, with tech stocks still positioned in the top 25% of historical valuations [2][4]. Group 2: Capital Flows and Asset Allocation - Foreign holdings of U.S. securities have nearly doubled from $16 trillion in 2014 to $31 trillion projected for 2024, indicating a significant concentration of dollar assets [7]. - The recent simultaneous sell-off of U.S. stocks, the dollar, and U.S. Treasuries is seen as a normal reaction to uncertainty, particularly driven by trade policies, rather than a definitive shift away from a strong dollar [6][7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The IMF has warned of high valuations in the U.S. stock market, suggesting that if economic conditions worsen, further adjustments in valuations may occur [2]. - The potential for stagflation is highlighted, as tariffs may lead to supply shocks and rising inflation, while simultaneously dampening demand due to decreased consumer and business confidence [8]. Group 4: Financial Stability - The article notes that while financial stability risks have increased, they are not yet classified as high, and gradual asset reallocation can be absorbed by the market [7]. - The focus should be on market dysfunction, where buyers cannot find sellers, which poses a greater risk to financial stability than mere asset price adjustments [9].

日本央行：日本金融体系整体保持稳定。消费有望维持温和上升趋势。 ...

香港财库局：香港证监会没有发现任何可能引发系统性风险或严重影响金融稳定的行为 智通财经4月29日电，对于美国滥施关税对环球市场带来的波动，香港财经事务及库务局发言人称，香 港证监会直至目前没有发现任何可能引发系统性风险或严重影响金融稳定的行为，未有过度杠杆或头寸 集中的情况。股票市场和股票衍生品市场，没有出现显著增加持仓，亦未有出现淡仓集中或累积的情 况。目前，香港特区政府和监管机构已建构一个"全天候、联动式、跨市场"的实时监控机制，密切监察 市场变化，包括防范尤其在市场信心脆弱时可能突现涌现的风险。倘若市场出现异常情况，亦有足够且 多元化的工具应付，以防范可能出现的系统性风险。香港将保持高度警惕、做好准备，加强对形势发展 的监控、预测及应对部署。 (证券时报) ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current coke market has no obvious fundamental contradictions, but the seasonal demand improvement is approaching an end, and the demand sustainability is questionable. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - There are still stagflation risks and concerns, which are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum of gold is insufficient, and the downside space is also limited. A mid - term high - level shock with a slightly bullish bias is appropriate [1]. - The demand for iron ore is good, but the supply remains high, and there are concerns about the demand reaching its peak. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. - The demand for steel is tepid, the steel mills have no signs of centralized production cuts, the inventory pressure is not large, and the raw fuel prices fluctuate slightly. The short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. - There is still an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is imminent, and the bond market supply will increase. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. - In the short term, the 09 contract of live pigs can wait for a pullback to go long. In the long - term, the live pig price will fluctuate strongly. Farmers can choose to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - The palm oil production continues to grow, lacks news support, and follows the trend of competing oils. The short - term operation suggestion is to sell short on rallies, and the downside space is limited [5]. - The price of domestic soybeans is relatively high, and the auction restrains the rapid price increase in the short term. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. - The market is waiting for the release of the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. - Concerns about OPEC+ production increase and unclear trade relations between major economies put pressure on oil prices. The oil market has many uncertainties, and short - term trading is advisable [7]. - PX has entered the maintenance season. If crude oil stabilizes, PX is expected to rebound. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. - The methanol 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [9]. - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [10]. - The caustic soda 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The natural rubber market is likely to continue the weak consolidation trend [11]. Summaries by Commodity Coke - The average national coke profit per ton is - 9 yuan/ton. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has increased significantly. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Gold - Stagflation risks and concerns are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the mid - term is expected to fluctuate slightly bullishly at a high level [1]. Iron Ore - From April 21st to April 27th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased. The demand is good, but the supply is high. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. Rebar - On April 28th, the domestic steel market prices fluctuated. The steel demand is tepid, and the short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. Treasury Bonds - There is an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of special treasury bonds will increase the supply. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. Live Pigs - On April 28th, the average pork price increased by 1.3%. In the short term, the 09 contract can wait for a pullback to go long, and in the long - term, the price will fluctuate strongly [4]. Palm Oil - As of April 25th, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased. The production is increasing, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies [5]. Soybeans - As of April 24th, 2025, the US soybean exports to China increased. The domestic soybean price is high, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. Silver - The market is waiting for the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. Crude Oil - Forecasts for oil production in the Permian Basin have been lowered. Concerns about supply and trade relations put pressure on oil prices. Short - term trading is advisable [7]. PTA - PX has entered the maintenance season. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. Methanol - The methanol price decreased slightly. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to run at a high level, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Soda Ash - The soda ash price is stable. The start - up rate has increased slightly, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is stable. The start - up rate is high, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. Rubber - The price of natural rubber is affected by supply and demand. As it enters the peak cutting season, the market may continue the weak consolidation trend [11].

【资讯导读】 ·美联储金融稳定调查：关税和政策不确定性升为首要风险 ·鲍威尔再次强调"独立性" ·香港金管局：香港金融体系保持稳健 ·俄罗斯央行维持基准利率在21.00%不变 ·加拿大2月零售销售环比降0.4%，预期降0.4%，前值降0.6%；核心零售销售环比升0.5%，预期降 0.4%，前值从升0.2%修正为升0.1%。 ·英国3月季调后零售销售环比升0.4%，预期降0.4%，前值从升1.0%修正为升0.7%；同比升2.6%，预期 升1.8%，前值升2.2%。 ·英国4月Gfk消费者信心指数-23，预期-22，前值-19。 【全球市场动态】 【市场资讯】 ·4月25日，美联储发布了一年一度的《金融稳定报告》。这是自特朗普重返白宫以来，美联储首次对金 融风险进行半年一次的调查。在报告的《金融稳定突出风险调查》一节中，高达73%的受访者将"全球 贸易风险"列为首要担忧，这一比例达到去年11月报告的两倍多，同时也有半数受访者对"政策不确定 性"表达担忧。在去年报告中位列榜首的"美国政府债务可持续性"只能屈居第三。 ·美联储主席鲍威尔强调，央行必须远离政治干预，以确保能够专注于保持通胀稳定和高就业率。美联 储26日 ...

美联储重磅报告发布。 4月25日，美联储发布了一年一度的《金融稳定报告》（以下简称"报告"）。这是自特朗普重返白宫以 来，美联储首次对金融风险进行半年一次的调查。报告针对与资产估值压力相关的风险发出警告，报告 指出，当前美国股票市场和住宅市场的估值仍然处于高位，各期限美国国债收益率仍处于2008年以来的 高位。 当天，美联储主席鲍威尔出席国际货币基金组织会议时再次强调了美联储的独立性，以便能够专注于保 持通胀稳定和实现高就业。 《金融稳定报告》发布 企业和家庭借贷方面，当前家庭债务占GDP比例接近20年低点，抵押贷款杠杆率远低于2000年代中期峰 值，债务偿还收入比低于疫情前。与此同时，信用卡和汽车贷款拖欠率高于疫情前，次级借款人拖欠率 上升，学生贷款还款压力可能增加。 总体而言，若利率上升，可能增加消费者和企业债务偿还压力，导致金融机构固定利率证券公允价值损 失，抑制信贷供应。此外，全球经济增长显著放缓，可能打击投资者信心，导致风险资产抛售，削弱企 业和家庭偿债能力，限制政府应对能力。美联储还表示，网络攻击可能破坏金融市场基础设施和服务提 供，通过机构间依赖放大风险，影响清算结算和数据安全。 鲍威尔再次强调 ...

美联储金融稳定报告：全球贸易战和政策不确定性是金融稳定的最大风险 美联储周五公布的最新金融稳定报告显示，全球贸易风险上升、总体政策不确定性以及美国债务的可持 续性高居美国金融体系潜在风险的榜首。这是自特朗普重返白宫以来，美联储首次对金融风险进行半年 一次的调查。73%的受访者表示，全球贸易风险是他们最担心的问题，这一比例是11月份报告的两倍 多。半数受访者认为，总体政策不确定性是最令人担忧的问题，这一比例较去年同期有所上升。调查还 发现，与近期市场动荡相关的问题受到了更多关注，27%的受访者担心美国国债市场的运转，高于去年 秋季的17%。外国对美国资产的撤资和美元的价值也在担忧名单上上升。 ...

来源 | 智堡Mikko 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 本文翻译自鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部 的演讲与问答 摘要 一、经济现状与货币政策 1 经济基本面： 2 政策挑战： 二、贸易政策与市场影响 1 关税效应： 2 金融市场反应： 三、劳动力市场与长期风险 1 当前状态： 2 潜在威胁： • 美国经济保持稳固，劳动力市场接近充分就业，失业率稳定在4%左右。 • 通胀已从2022年峰值显著回落，但仍略高于2%的目标（核心PCE为2.6%）。 • 新政府政策（贸易、移民、财政、监管）带来高度不确定性，可能加剧通胀并抑制增长。 • 关税可能导致价格水平一次性上涨，若传导至消费者预期，或引发持续性通胀风险。 • 美联储需平衡双重使命（就业与通胀），警惕政策目标冲突（如高失业率与高通胀并存）。 • 已宣布的关税幅度超预期，直接影响包括： • 通胀抬升：进口成本增加可能转嫁给消费者。 • 供应链扰动：若导致关键商品短缺（如半导体），可能延长通胀压力。 • 企业普遍反映"政策不确定性"抑制投资决策，可能拖累长期经济增长。 • 股市波动加剧（VIX指数攀升），债券市场出现避险与收益率上升的背离现象。 • 美联储强调市 ...

在论坛期间， 施南德 还接受了 中央电视台财经频道专访 。谈及当前国际经贸环境，施南德表示 挑战的确与机遇并存 ，特别是在面临挑战时，创新往往迸发活 力，创造新的模式。虽然经济增长的模式和速度各不相同，但 亚洲整体处于全球经济增长的中心 。 色 。 博鳌亚洲论坛2025年年会 上周五在海南博鳌落幕。论坛期间， 高盛亚太区（除日本外）总裁施南德(Kevin Sneader) 参与了由国际货币基金组织原副总裁朱 民所主持的 "不稳定世界中寻找货币与金融稳定" 分论坛，探讨亚洲经济体如何应对发达经济体货币政策的外溢效应、如何有效应对公共债务和私人部门债务 压力以维护金融稳定。 施南德 在分论坛上分享了他 对全球货币及财政政策的看法，分析亚洲及中国在全球经济增长及众多上下行风险因素中扮演的关键角 " 亚洲仍是全球增长的中心 ——看清这一点非常重要。 我们能清晰地看到对中国经济增长前景的乐观情绪显著增强 ，东南亚区域在全球制造业经济中也愈发 成熟。尽管世界经济逆风而行，亚洲依旧是世界经济增长的中心。" 施南德 在接受央视采访时表示。 施南德 在采访中也提及，自去年9月中国政府推出增量经济刺激政策以来，伴随持续的货币和财 ...

Group 1: Domestic News - The People's Bank of China held a financial stability meeting emphasizing risk prevention as a core theme for financial work, aiming to enhance risk monitoring and establish a robust financial stability framework [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to invest 500 billion yuan to increase the capital of four major banks, indicating imminent issuance of special government bonds for capital replenishment [2] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released new guidelines to improve the quality and transparency of information disclosure by listed companies, responding to market demands and enhancing governance [4] - The China Securities Association introduced revised risk management norms for securities companies, focusing on the management of off-exchange derivatives and their underlying assets [5] Group 3: International News - In the U.S., the core PCE price index rose to 2.79% year-on-year, the highest since December 2024, indicating inflationary pressures that may influence monetary policy [8] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to a two-year low, with long-term inflation expectations reaching a 32-year high, reflecting consumer concerns over economic conditions [9] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The bond market showed mixed performance, with short-term bonds recovering slightly while long-term bonds weakened due to uncertainty in monetary policy [13] - The convertible bond market followed the equity market's downward trend, with most convertible bonds declining in value [20] Group 5: Overseas Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell across all maturities, with the 10-year yield down 11 basis points to 4.27%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [22] - Major European economies also saw a decline in 10-year government bond yields, reflecting a broader trend of decreasing yields in developed markets [25]