Core Insights - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in May rose by 0.2%, slightly exceeding expectations, indicating persistent price pressures [1][5] - Consumer spending in the U.S. experienced its largest decline since the beginning of the year, reflecting growing uncertainty in the economic outlook due to government policies [1][8] Inflation Indicators - The year-on-year core PCE price index for May was 2.68%, above the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 2.5% [3] - The overall PCE price index for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, matching expectations but up from 2.1% previously [4] - SuperCore PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased slightly to 3.12% year-on-year from 3.07% [5] Consumer Spending and Income - Personal consumption expenditures fell by 0.3% in May, with a notable 6% drop in automobile purchases, reversing previous gains [11] - Personal income also declined, marking the largest drop since 2021, primarily due to reduced government transfer payments [12] - The savings rate decreased significantly to 4.5% of disposable income [14] Economic Outlook - Many economists anticipate a rise in inflation in the coming months as higher import tariffs are passed on to consumers [9] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated potential support for interest rate cuts if inflation remains moderate, with discussions around a possible cut as early as the next policy meeting [16] Market Reaction - The U.S. dollar index experienced a short-term decline, dropping 0.16% to 97.12 [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, under the game of low inventory and weak consumption and with the weakening of the US dollar index, the aluminum price will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 21,000 integer mark above [53]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The overall output of electrolytic aluminum fluctuates little; the US dollar index weakens; the exchange inventory continues to decline; geopolitical risks ease [8][9][13]. - **Bearish factors**: There is an expectation of weakening demand; the spot premium declines [8]. 3.2 Data Analysis - **Supply**: China's electrolytic aluminum output in May 2025 was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The current national electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is about 44.15 million tons, with an operating rate of 97.7%, and subsequent increments are limited [19]. - **Aluminum cost**: China's alumina output in May 2025 was 7.488 million tons. Although there were some production cuts in some areas, the alumina output is expected to continue to rise due to subsequent restarts and new capacity releases [22]. - **Aluminum product output**: China's aluminum product output in May 2025 was 5.762 million tons, a slight month - on - month decline and lower than the same period last year, affected by policies and the off - season [25]. - **Aluminum downstream consumption**: Affected by the high aluminum price and the deepening of the off - season, the average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 59.8%. The real estate market is still in the bottom - seeking stage, while the new energy vehicle market is growing rapidly, and the overall automobile export growth rate has increased significantly in May [28][32][36]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and foreign exchange inventories, as well as the social inventory of aluminum ingots, are declining. As of June 26, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major Chinese markets was 460,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from Monday [40][46]. - **Aluminum water conversion rate**: Under the guidance of the dual - carbon policy, the proportion of aluminum water has reached a historical high, changing the inventory structure of the aluminum industry [43]. - **Premium**: On June 26, the average premium of Shanghai Wuma Aluminum decreased, and the LME aluminum premium changed to a discount [50].

2025.06.27 周五 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 最好不持仓过周，押注对了还好，但一旦押注失误，别想着一根细细的"止损线"能帮你。冷知识，跳空出现之后，不论是设置的止损或是止盈， 都大概率不会被触发。 故而今天还是看一下黄金的本身，有没有自救的能力吧。说白了，你至少让我进场啊！ 六月的倒数第二个交易日，PCE数据将公布；六月的最后一个交易日在下周一，收月线也就算了，更何况还有周四的非农，是会留给下周一些风 风雨雨的。【没错，鉴于老美假期，所以数据提前公布】 刚说完黑天鹅，它就飞来了，我是什么召唤师的角色吗？ 基本面上一天不如一天，改口的反转来的太多，不怎么想去追踪了，就记得两件事。①老美需要＄，不管是债务亦或者经济发展；②建国以降息 为引子，弱化关税影响，试图模糊掉这些。 别问，前者跟现在开辟的任何战场都有关。周末各位也要提防一下，市场休市，可ZZ没有休息一说，一个人八百个心眼子，还在斗的激烈。 催催催，再怎么被催促，美联储都得考虑一下，如果连续的通胀不强或者就业市场疲软，才能点击降息的按钮。这次可能是个开始，那PCE数据 不能一开始就扇降息一巴掌吧。 所以这次呢，本来预期就比较高，如果公 ...

首席点评：美国经济萎缩 铜：夜盘铜价收涨超 1%。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据 来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产 持续疲弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 素变化。 玻璃纯碱：玻璃期货整理运行。基本面，盘面目前在千元下方逐步止跌，横盘震荡。不过，整体而言市 场依然关注宏观托底背景下微观层面供需消化的成效。数据方面，上周玻璃生产企业库存 6052万重 箱，环比增加7万重箱。纯碱期货反弹。数据层面，本周纯碱生产企业库存179.3万吨，环比增加4.2万 吨。综合而言，国内，玻璃纯碱都处于库存承压消化的周期，由于生产利润不佳，目前的去库进程需要 时间。不过，随着国内消费需求的提振，继续关注玻璃纯碱自身的供需消化过程，同时关注商品整体的 回暖对于地产链的需求带动。纯碱而言，总体供给仍有一些变化，后市聚焦于供需的平衡过程，尤其是 供给端的调节能否有助于库存的进一步消化。 一、当日主要新闻关注 1）国际新闻 国务院总理李强出席亚投行第十届理事会年会开幕式并致辞。李强指出，今年中国 ...

张尧浠：市场因素交错不定、金价维持震荡偏弱调整 昨日周四(6月26日)：国际黄金震荡收跌，继续处于中轨及短期均线下方，但也运行在60日及上升趋势线之上，暗示后市仍偏向震荡调整，但方向上，仍 有再度上行的潜力。重点关注上升趋势线和100日均线形成的两段看涨支撑位置。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3332.70美元/盎司，先行震荡走强，于欧盘初录得日内高点3350.27美元，之后则遇阻回落，到美盘时段空头力量加大，连续 坠落录得日内低点3309.77美元，最终有所止跌回升，但遇阻3336美元再度回撤，收于3327.63美元，日振幅40.5美元，收跌5.07美元，跌幅0.15%。 基本面上，当前黄金市场正处于多重因素的交错之中，市场情绪略显疲态和观望情绪，而使得金价偏弱调整。再加上之前在历史高点附近被套的交易者不 断在反弹的同时不断选择止损出货而降低了多头力量。 短期内，走势将继续依托地缘局势的缓解，各国于美国关税偏向乐观的倾向，和技术调整压力而偏弱运行。 但较长期来看，几度呼吁鲍威尔降息的美国总统特朗普表示将会重新选择下任美联储主席，这将令市场仍为降息将会很快到来，市场也偏向在7月或9月降 息，使得年内仍处于降息周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Mexico has decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points for the fourth consecutive time, lowering it from 8.5% to 8%, marking the lowest level since 2022. This decision reflects a shift in focus from inflation control to concerns about economic growth slowdown [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The decision was made amidst internal disagreements within the board, with a 4-1 vote, where Vice Governor Jonathan Heath cast the only dissenting vote advocating for no change in rates [1]. - The current rate cut indicates a preference for a more accommodative policy to stimulate economic activity despite ongoing inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Unlike previous meetings, the latest statement did not explicitly indicate the possibility of further 50 basis point cuts, suggesting a potential slowdown in future easing measures [1]. - Analysts predict that if inflation continues to decline and economic data remains weak, the benchmark rate could drop to 7.5% or lower by the end of the year, although any rebound in inflation or adverse external conditions could limit further easing [2].

Market Performance - US stock market closed higher with the Dow Jones rising over 400 points, marking a four-day winning streak for the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq approached historical highs [1][3][4] - As of the close, the Dow Jones increased by 0.94% to 43,386.84 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0.8% to 6,141.02 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.97% to 20,167.91 points, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq achieving their second-highest closing records [3][4] Economic Outlook - UBS warned that the current short squeeze in the US stock market may be nearing its end, with their tracked short squeeze index recently surging by 43%, while indicators of true risk appetite have been weakening [5] - Historical data suggests that similar intensity short squeezes typically result in average declines of 11% for the S&P 500 and 13% for the Nasdaq within three months following the peak [5] - JPMorgan analysts indicated a 40% probability of the US entering a recession in the second half of the year, citing potential negative impacts from US tariff policies on global economic growth and inflation [5] Federal Reserve Commentary - Federal Reserve officials have been vocal, with discussions around the potential early announcement of a successor to Jerome Powell by Trump, aimed at influencing market interest rate expectations [7] - Fed officials expressed confidence in the stability of the job market, with indications that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be moderate [7][8] - Fed officials also noted that while the labor market remains strong, further data on inflation is needed before making decisions on interest rate adjustments, with a focus on potential rate cuts later in the year [8] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Facebook and Amazon increasing over 2%, while Google and Microsoft rose over 1%. Nvidia gained 0.46%, whereas Apple and Tesla saw slight declines [10] - Barclays research highlighted that the deployment of Robotaxis could pose a significant threat to traditional ride-hailing services by 2027, although current supply chain issues are limiting rapid expansion [11] - Google DeepMind launched the AI model AlphaGenome, which can analyze up to one million DNA base pairs and predict the effects of genetic mutations on regulatory mechanisms [12]

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 白宫：没有延长7月9日关税暂缓期的计划，此事变更将由总统决定 伊朗外长：目前伊朗没有重启核谈判的计划 贝森特要求国会剔除"899报复税条款" 古尔斯比：特朗普提前宣布鲍威尔继任者不会对FOMC产生任何影响 我国自主研发的新一代国产通用处理器龙芯3C6000发布 荣耀正式迈出了A股IPO的关键一步 随着夏季驾车季节的到来，美国原油库存因需求增加而下降，油价周四小涨。WTI原油收涨0.43%，报65.16美元/桶；布伦特原油收涨0.47%，报67.91美元/ 桶。 美股道指收涨0.9%、纳指涨0.97%，标普500指数涨0.8%，逼近历史最高点位6147.43。特斯拉(TSLA.O)跌0.5%，亚马逊(AMZN.O)涨2.4%。纳斯达克中国金 龙指数收跌0.29%，小鹏汽车(XPEV.N)跌6.5%。 欧洲股指多数收涨，德国DAX30指数收涨0.64%；英国富时100指数收涨0.19%；法国CAC40指数收跌0.01%；欧洲斯托克50指数收跌0.15%；西班牙IBEX35 指数收涨0. ...

金十数据6月27日讯，展望下半年，专家表示，外部环境仍面临很大不确定性，为着力提振内需、加大 对外贸等领域的支持力度，货币政策需在适度宽松方向进一步发力，并保持市场流动性处于稳定的充裕 状态。"预计下半年还会有1至2次降息，总计调降政策利率20个至30个基点，从而引导LPR下行，并传 导至贷款、存款利率的进一步下行。"银河证券首席经济学家章俊说。此外，对于市场讨论较多的政策 性金融工具，华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘认为，新型政策性金融工具有望在年内推出，或允许政策 性银行发行金融债券筹集资金，以股权投资形式补充科技创新、外贸等项目资本金，估计今年落地额度 为5000亿元至10000亿元。 （中证报） 专家：新型政策性金融工具或允许政策性银行发行金融债券 ...

Domestic News - The National Financial Regulatory Administration and the Central Bank jointly released the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of Inclusive Finance in the Banking and Insurance Industries," aiming to establish a high-quality comprehensive inclusive financial system within five years [1] - The State Council issued the "Implementation Plan for Further Improving the Credit Repair System," which proposes a unified credit information disclosure platform and clarifies the channels for credit repair applications [1] - Xiaomi officially launched its first SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, with prices starting at 253,500 yuan, Pro version at 279,900 yuan, and Max version at 329,900 yuan; also released its first AI glasses starting at 1,999 yuan [1] - The 2025 basic medical insurance catalog and commercial insurance innovative drug catalog adjustment application guidelines have been released, marking the first inclusion of commercial insurance innovative drugs [1] - The new generation of domestically developed general-purpose processor, Longxin 3C6000, has been released [1] International News - Trade negotiations between India and the United States have reached a stalemate, according to Indian officials [2] - The European Union believes that the U.S. attack occurred after Iran transferred enriched uranium [2] - The spread between the U.S. 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields has exceeded 101 basis points, marking the steepest since 2021 [2] - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in May, with exports experiencing the largest decline since the pandemic; first-quarter GDP has been revised down [2] - Iran has officially enacted a law to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency [2] - Federal Reserve officials indicated that with inflation easing, interest rate hikes are no longer a primary topic; potential neutral rate estimates may gradually rise over time [2]