Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed higher, maintaining above the 5-day moving average, indicating a bullish outlook despite weakening bullish signals from indicators [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $3735.78 per ounce, reached a daily high of $3761.31, and a low of $3722.16, ultimately closing at $3749.12, with a daily range of $39.15 and a gain of $13.34, or 0.36% [3]. Influencing Factors - The decline in initial jobless claims and a significant upward revision of the U.S. Q2 GDP contributed to a strong rebound in the U.S. dollar index, which pressured gold prices initially. However, buying support from bargain hunters and safe-haven demand led to a recovery in gold prices [3]. Market Outlook - On September 26, gold prices showed weakness in early trading, with expectations of continued volatility. The bullish outlook is temporarily hindered by resistance levels and the recent strength of the dollar index, suggesting that gold may remain in a range until it breaks above $3780 or tests the support of the 10-day and 30-day moving averages [3]. Upcoming Data - Key data to watch includes the U.S. August core PCE price index and the final value of the September University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Market expectations remain unchanged, but recent positive data trends suggest a likelihood of better-than-previous values, which could negatively impact gold prices [3].

美元指数短期均线呈现上行趋势，但动能有所减弱，显示多头力量趋缓。若指数继续上行，上方关键阻 力位在98.60与99.00附近；而若回落，下方支撑关注97.80与97.40一线。 穆萨勒姆表示，他上周支持降息25个基点，因为他认为劳动力市场面临的风险有所增加。但是，由于通 胀率比美联储2%的目标高出近一个百分点，进一步降息可能意味着对物价上涨的过度自满。"如果公众 开始怀疑通胀能否回归2%的目标，那么恢复价格稳定的工作将变得更加困难，并可能给经济带来更高 代价。"交易员的押注显示，美联储将在今年剩余的两次会议上再降息50个基点。此外，他的观点也与 美联储新任理事米兰相左。米兰在上周的会议上反对小幅降息，主张进行更大幅度的降息。 周五（9月26日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.39，跌幅0.07%，开盘价为98.46。 美联储官员穆萨莱 姆对进一步降息表示怀疑，与金融市场普遍预期美联储今年将继续降低借贷成本的观点相左。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.45% to 854.72 yuan/gram, while the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.08% to 10,411 yuan/kilogram [4]. - The US economic data is performing well, the US dollar index has rebounded, the trade situation between the US and Europe has further eased, and the market has closed positions in advance before the National Day holiday to avoid risks. As a result, the upward trend of gold has slowed down and entered a high - level shock. However, silver, boosted by its industrial attributes and the sharp rise of copper, has continued its upward trend. On the other hand, US Treasury Secretary Bessent urged a rate cut by the end of the year, and the probability of two more rate cuts this year remains high. In the long run, precious metal prices still have room to rise [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will long - term increase the credit risk of the US dollar. The continuation of gold purchases by global central banks means that the medium - to - long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Internal and External Gold and Silver - **Price Data**: On September 25, 2025, the price of London gold was 3,740.94 US dollars/ounce, London silver was 43.96 US dollars/ounce, COMEX gold was 3,771.60 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver was 44.26 US dollars/ounce, AU2510 was 851.74 yuan/gram, AG2510 was 10,370 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 850.58 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 10,346 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the price of gold generally decreased, with a decline of 0.8% for London gold, 0.9% for COMEX gold, 0.5% for AU2510, and 0.5% for AU (T + D). The price of silver also mostly decreased, with a decline of 0.3% for London silver and 0.2% for COMEX silver, but AG2510 and AG (T + D) increased by 0.2% [3]. - **Spread/Ratio Data**: On September 25, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price was - 1.16 yuan/gram, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price was - 24 yuan/kilogram, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) was - 4.78 yuan/gram, the spread of silver internal - external market (TD - London) was - 896 yuan/kilogram, the ratio of SHFE gold - silver main contracts was 82.14, the ratio of COMEX gold - silver main contracts was 85.22, the spread of AU2512 - 2510 was 2.98 yuan/gram, and the spread of AG2512 - 2510 was 41 yuan/kilogram. Compared with September 24, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 28.9%, the spread of gold internal - external market (TD - London) decreased by 31.0%, etc. [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX Gold and Silver Non - commercial Positions**: As of September 16, 2025 (weekly data), on September 24, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 326,778 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 60,368 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 266,410 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position increased by 0.59%, the non - commercial short position decreased by 4.38%, and the non - commercial net long position increased by 1.78%. The non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 71,623 contracts, the non - commercial short position was 20,085 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position was 51,538 contracts. Compared with September 23, the non - commercial long position decreased by 1.14%, the non - commercial short position increased by 8.49%, and the non - commercial net long position decreased by 4.45% [3]. - **ETF Positions**: On September 24, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR was 996.85 tons, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV was 15,469.12379 tons. Compared with September 23, the position of the gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 0.37%, and the position of the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventory**: On September 25, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 65,634 kilograms, an increase of 8.41% compared with September 24. The SHFE silver inventory was 1,156,855 kilograms, a decrease of 0.43% compared with September 24 [3]. - **COMEX Inventory**: On September 24, 2025, the COMEX gold inventory was 39,807,223 troy ounces, an increase of 0.16% compared with September 23. The COMEX silver inventory was 527,155,089 troy ounces, an increase of 0.08% compared with September 23 [3]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Index Data - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: On September 25, 2025, the US dollar index was 97.87, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.16%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.11. Compared with September 24, the US dollar index increased by 0.06%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.65%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.13%, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate remained unchanged [3][4]. - **Index**: On September 25, 2025, the S&P 500 index was 6,637.97, and the NYMEX crude oil price was 64.81. Compared with September 24, the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.76%, and the NYMEX crude oil price increased by 1.82% [4].

与此同时，美元指数震荡，截至9时30分，报98.4213。 华泰期货研报称，人民币对美元短期维持在7.1左右区间震荡。若国内信贷和消费修复兑现，叠加美联 储进入宽松周期，人民币存在阶段性升值可能。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 陈佳怡）9月26日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘下跌，报 7.1350，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1253。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.1424。 同日，人民币对美元中间价下调34个基点，报7.1152。 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index increased by 0.60% to 98.47, while most non-US currencies declined [1] - The euro fell by 0.62% against the dollar, trading at 1.1666 [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.79% against the dollar, reaching 1.3342 [1] - The Australian dollar dropped by 0.65% against the dollar, now at 0.6540 [1] - The US dollar rose by 0.60% against the Japanese yen, trading at 149.7970 [1] - The US dollar appreciated by 0.32% against the Canadian dollar, now at 1.3941 [1] - The US dollar increased by 0.57% against the Swiss franc, trading at 0.7996 [1]

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices have stabilized, with some signs of a potential decline, as major brands report no price changes [1][3] - The highest gold price is quoted at 1105 CNY per gram by Laomiao Gold, while Shanghai China Gold offers the lowest at 1011 CNY per gram, resulting in a price difference of 94 CNY [1][3] - The gold recovery prices have decreased by 2.1 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among different brands [4] Group 2 - International spot gold prices experienced a drop, reaching a low of 3717.10 USD per ounce, and closing at 3736.07 USD per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of 0.74% [6] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to cautious remarks from the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which have limited market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the dollar index [6] - Market sentiment remains cautious as investors await upcoming economic data, including the US Q2 GDP and PCE data, which could influence gold prices [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to a combination of overbought conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The recent decline in gold prices is attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields, which have led to an increase in the U.S. dollar index, thereby exerting downward pressure on gold [2][3] - Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including GDP, initial jobless claims, and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated a cautious outlook on interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need to balance high inflation risks with a weakening labor market [2] - Powell acknowledged the rising risks in the labor market and inflation, stating that monetary policy remains moderately restrictive but capable of addressing potential economic developments [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, with key support levels at 3715 and 3680, and resistance levels at 3780 and 3800 [4]

Group 1 - Gold experienced a significant drop after reaching a historical high of $3791 per ounce, falling to a low of $3717 due to comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell dampening interest rate cut expectations [1][3] - Powell's cautious outlook on interest rate decisions highlighted the need to balance high inflation with a weak job market, contributing to the decline in gold prices [3] - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3 basis points to 4.137%, and real yields climbing nearly 3.5 basis points to 1.76%, negatively impacted gold prices as they are inversely related [3] Group 2 - Despite the recent drop, gold remains above the 5-day moving average, indicating a sustained upward trend, with strong buying power observed at lower levels [6] - The resistance level for gold is identified around $3758, while support is noted at $3735 and $3720, suggesting potential trading strategies based on these levels [8]

Core Insights - The interbank foreign exchange market in August experienced stable trading, with a slight year-on-year decline in average daily trading volume [1] - The offshore yuan exchange rate showed a significant appreciation towards the end of August, reflecting stronger market expectations [2] - The implied volatility in the options market indicated a rising short-term appreciation expectation for the yuan [4] Group 1: Trading Volume and Market Activity - In August, the average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market was $191.86 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.06% [1] - The average daily trading volume for the yuan was $136.03 billion, down 9.32% year-on-year and 7.65% month-on-month [1] - The foreign currency market and foreign currency interest rate market remained active, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 20% [1] Group 2: Exchange Rate Movements - The onshore yuan exchange rate fluctuated between 7.1650 and 7.1950 in early August, strengthening to a midpoint of 7.1030 by the end of the month, representing a 0.83% appreciation [1] - The average daily deviation of the market transaction price from the midpoint was 441 basis points, widening by 236 basis points compared to the previous month [1] - The offshore yuan (CNH) appreciated by 1.02% by the end of August, closing at 7.1276 [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Behavior - The average daily net selling of foreign exchange in August was $1.78 million, with a shift from net buying in the first half of the month to net selling in the second half [2] - The market's herd effect index was recorded at 63.52, slightly down from July but above the historical average of 62.65 [2][3] Group 4: Options Market and Interest Rate Differentials - The average daily trading volume in the yuan foreign exchange options market was $5.83 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 22.51% [4] - The implied volatility for at-the-money options rebounded, indicating a notable increase in market sentiment regarding short-term yuan appreciation [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased to 4.23% by the end of August, contributing to a narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. [4]

在此背景下，有市场分析人士表示，黄金仍在消化此前一天美联储的一些评论以及与俄罗斯的地缘紧张 局势，在一些经济数据出炉之前，短期市场情绪略显谨慎。 但从中长期来看，政治和经济不确定时期，作为避险资产的黄金更具吸引力。且随着美联储政策方向转 向宽松，黄金作为一种非孳息资产，在低利率环境下也往往会明显受益。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格下跌15美分，收于每盎司44.115美元，跌幅为0.34%，结算报44.192美 元。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 受重要通胀指标公布前的谨慎情绪影响，9月24日（周三），国际金价遭遇温和获利了结，震荡收跌。 当天，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价收盘较前一交易日下跌28.4美 元，收于每盎司3768.5美元，跌幅为0.75%，结算价报3768.1美元。 分析来看，由于美联储主席鲍威尔在前一天的讲话中强调"必须谨慎平衡顽固的通胀与就业市场放缓之 间风险"，这一表态没有给未来货币政策动向带来新的线索。同时，本周五将公布美国个人消费支出 （PCE）物价指数 ...