Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index increased by 0.24% to 98.50, while most non-US currencies experienced declines [1] Currency Performance - The euro fell by 0.22% against the US dollar, trading at 1.1616 [1] - The British pound decreased by 0.12%, with a rate of 1.3432 against the US dollar [1] - The Australian dollar also dropped by 0.12%, trading at 0.6514 against the US dollar [1] - The Japanese yen saw an increase of 0.28%, with the dollar trading at 148.1520 yen [1] - The Canadian dollar rose by 0.15%, with the exchange rate at 1.3777 [1] - The Swiss franc appreciated by 0.49%, trading at 0.8124 against the US dollar [1]

周一纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数涨0.37%，报98.543点，日内交投区间为98.034-98.670点。彭博美元指数涨 0.27%，报1207.94点，日内交投区间为1202.58-1208.76点。 本文源自：金融界AI电报 ...

Group 1 - The international spot gold price declined on August 11, 2025, primarily due to weakened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a stronger dollar, and a rebound in global risk appetite [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule for 2025 has led to a stronger dollar index, reducing the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [2] - If core inflation in the U.S. remains sticky, a prolonged high interest rate environment may continue to suppress gold prices [2] Group 3 - A rebound in global risk appetite, driven by strong performance in equity markets (such as U.S. and A-shares) or easing geopolitical tensions, may lead to a shift of funds from gold to risk assets [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 美元指数回落，有色板块反弹 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-8-11 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | ...

Group 1: Core Views - Recent leveraged funds continue to flow in, with the total margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion this week. The market sentiment remains optimistic, but the increase in the ratio of margin trading to market capitalization is limited. The 2 trillion mark has stronger signaling meaning than practical meaning and may trigger reverse trading, weakening risk appetite [2]. - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization", creating credit demand for banks through monetary structured tools, supporting the manufacturing industry, and stimulating a rapid rebound in the banking sector [2]. - US employment data released last week plunged, increasing market bets on interest rate cuts. The US dollar index has continued to decline to around 98, and foreign capital has replenished A - share positions, supporting the sentiment in the mainland market after the A - share index correction [2]. - This week's total A - share trading volume slightly decreased compared to last week, with daily trading around 1.6 trillion. Most broad - based indices recovered last week's losses, with small - and medium - cap stocks remaining strong. The CSI 1000 rose more than 2%, and together with the CSI 2000 and micro - cap stock indices, reached new highs for the year. Large - cap broad - based indices rose slightly more than 1% this week [2]. - The downward support for basis has weakened, and the intraday structured divergence in trends among varieties has increased. The risk appetite shown in the futures market has declined, and there is a need to guard against the risk of a slowdown in the index's upward rate or even a continuous adjustment [2]. - As of Friday, the annualized basis of each variety was basically the same as last week, with the annualized discounts of IC and IM still around 10% and 11% respectively [2]. Group 2: Weekly Forecast - The model's judgment on the movement direction of the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week is: strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and weakening respectively [4].

Core Insights - As of June 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3,317.4 billion, an increase of $32.2 billion from the end of May, marking a rise of 0.98% [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to factors such as exchange rate adjustments and asset price changes, with a total increase of $115.1 billion in the first half of the year [1] - The foreign exchange reserves have reached the highest level since January 2016, indicating strengthened capacity to mitigate various shocks under open conditions [1] Summary by Categories Foreign Exchange Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3,317.4 billion as of June 2025, reflecting a monthly increase of $32.2 billion [1] - The reserves have recorded six consecutive monthly increases, with a total rise of $115.1 billion in the first half of the year [1] Economic Factors - The increase in reserves is influenced by the fiscal and monetary policies of major economies, as well as the outlook for economic growth, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and an overall rise in global financial asset prices [1] - The positive valuation effect from the appreciation of non-US dollar currencies against the dollar and rising asset prices contributed to the increase in reserves [1] Future Outlook - The external environment is becoming more complex and severe, with weakened global economic momentum and continued volatility in international financial markets [1] - However, China's economy is expected to maintain steady growth, and resilient foreign trade, along with global investors' optimism towards new opportunities in the Chinese capital market, will support the stability of foreign exchange reserves [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is attributed to both external and internal factors, including a weakening USD and stable domestic economic performance [1][2]. External Factors - The USD index has been declining since June 19, reaching a low of 96.9923 on June 26, the lowest since March 2, 2022 [2]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have created a favorable external environment for the RMB [1][2]. Internal Factors - China's economy has shown stable growth, with significant increases in industrial output and retail sales, contributing to the support of the RMB [1]. - New economic drivers such as industrial robots and new energy vehicles are performing well, aiding in the structural transformation and innovation of the economy [1]. - The positive performance of the Chinese capital market has led to increased cross-border capital inflows, further supporting the RMB [1].

Group 1 - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,174 billion, an increase of $322 billion from the end of May, marking a rise of 0.98% [2] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar, which fell by 2.5% to a three-year low of 96.9, leading to a collective appreciation of non-USD currencies [2][3] - The rise in global financial asset prices, including a 1.0% increase in the USD-denominated global bond index and a 5.0% rise in the S&P 500 index, also supported the increase in foreign reserves [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts believe that the significant depreciation of the US dollar has enhanced the valuation of non-USD assets within China's foreign reserves, contributing to the larger increase in reserves for June [3] - The current level of foreign reserves is considered to be at a moderately sufficient level, providing support for maintaining the RMB exchange rate and acting as a buffer against external shocks [3] - China's economy is expected to continue its steady growth, and resilient foreign trade is likely to help maintain the stability of foreign exchange reserves [3] Group 3 - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves amounted to 7.39 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of May, indicating a continued strategy of increasing gold holdings [4] - The importance of gold as a widely recognized ultimate payment method is increasing, especially in the context of rising geopolitical risks and the diminishing reliability of traditional safe-haven assets like the US dollar [4] - Gold is viewed as a non-sovereign credit reserve asset that can effectively hedge against single currency risks and optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rebound in spot gold prices, nearing $3,400 per ounce, is primarily influenced by the Chinese central bank's continuous increase in gold reserves for foreign exchange hedging rather than a bullish outlook on gold itself [1] - As of the end of July, China's gold reserves reached 73.96 million ounces, an increase of 60,000 ounces from June, marking nine consecutive months of gold accumulation by the central bank [1] - The decline in the US dollar index is negatively correlated with gold prices, leading to an increase in gold prices as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve grow, alongside concerns about a potential economic recession in the US [1] Group 2 - International investment banks, such as Citigroup, have recently shifted their stance to a bullish outlook on gold, raising their price forecast from $3,300 to $3,500 per ounce, indicating potential upward price movement [2] - Despite the optimistic price targets of $3,500 to $3,600 per ounce, the overall expectation suggests a narrowing of upward space for gold prices, indicating a likely continuation of range-bound trading without significant new capital inflows [4] - For individual investors holding gold-related assets, maintaining positions is crucial, while new purchases should be approached with caution, as significant price fluctuations are not anticipated in the near term [4]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 8, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - Copper prices have been mainly fluctuating recently. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has basically stabilized. In the short term, it's hard to see LME copper prices continuously higher than COMEX copper prices. However, there are still undercurrents in the spot market and inventory. The sharp decline led by COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets, and investors should be wary of the negative impact of weak copper demand [3] Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,460 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - When finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, with a long spot exposure, it's recommended to short 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] Raw Material Management - When raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, with a short spot exposure, it's recommended to long 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices Bullish Factors - The US and other countries have reached an agreement on tariff policies - The US dollar index has declined due to employment data - There is obvious support at the lower level [4] Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent - Global demand has decreased due to tariff policies - The adjustment of the US copper tariff policy has led to an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5][6] Copper Market Data Futures Market - Shanghai Copper main contract: 78,460 yuan/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change - Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract: 78,460 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan, 0.23% daily change - Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract: 78,440 yuan/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change - LME 3M copper: 9,670.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars, - 0.04% daily change - Shanghai - London ratio: 8.15, unchanged, 0% daily change [6] Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper: 78,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan, 0.19% daily change - Shanghai Wumaomao: 78,465 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan, 0.17% daily change - Guangdong Southern Reserve: 78,330 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan, 0.18% daily change - Yangtze Non - ferrous: 78,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan, 0.13% daily change [7] Refined - Scrap Spread - Current refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 660.43 yuan/ton, down 173.61 yuan, - 20.82% daily change - Reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included): 1,483.2 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan, - 0.19% daily change - Price advantage (tax - included): - 822.77 yuan/ton, down 170.81 yuan, 26.2% daily change [9] Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts: total 20,145 tons, down 201 tons, - 0.99% daily change - LME copper inventory: total 156,000 tons, down 125 tons, - 0.08% daily change - COMEX copper inventory: total 263,296 tons, up 5,381 tons, 2.09% weekly change [13][15][18] Import and Processing - Copper import profit and loss: - 141.8 yuan/ton, up 120.22 yuan, - 45.88% daily change - Copper concentrate TC: - 41 US dollars/ton, unchanged, 0% daily change [19]