FICC日报 | 2025-06-17 地缘局势缓解，股指反弹 市场分析 中东局势暂未升级。国内方面，国家统计局发布最新经济数据显示，5月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%， 社会消费品零售总额增长6.4%，前5个月，全国固定资产投资同比增长3.7%，高端制造、数字经济等发展新动能持 续壮大，5月份，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长8.6%，数字产品制造业增加值同比增长9.1%。1-5月份， 全国新建商品房销售面积和销售额同比分别下降2.9%和3.8%，新开工降幅继续低位收窄，投资降幅略有扩大，商 品房库存已经连续三个月减少。海外方面，伊朗通过中间方传达愿意在美国不参与以色列袭击的前提下重启谈判 的意愿，同时伊朗向以色列传达信息，希望双方将攻击控制在有限范围内。 指数上行。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡上行，上证指数涨0.35%收于3388.73点，创业板指涨0.26%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，传媒、通信、计算机、房地产行业领涨，农林牧渔、美容护理、有色金属行业跌幅居前。当 日沪深两市成交金额为1.2万亿元。海外市场，美国三大股指全线收涨，纳指涨1.52%报19701.21点。 期指减仓。期货市场 ...

在企业嘉宾发言环节，六六仓集团董事长田会宾以 "数字化供应链赋能交易生态" 为核心，分享了六六仓在数字经济时代的探索与实践。他指出："当前， 大宗商品供应链正面临从传统交易模式向数字化、智能化转型的关键节点。六六仓集团深耕供应链服务领域多年，始终以技术创新为驱动，构建了覆盖仓 储管理、物流配送、金融服务、数据服务的全链条数字化解决方案，与电交所的合作，正是通过生态融合实现'交易效率提升、企业成本降低、产业价值 重构'的实践突破。" 6月15日，天津国际电子商品交易有限公司（以下简称 "电交所"）系统上线暨功能发布会在天津市滨海新区召开。作为天津电交所交易平台生态建设运营 商，上海六六仓信息科技集团有限公司（以下简称 "六六仓集团"）董事长田会宾受邀出席本次活动并代表六六仓集团与电交所完成现场签约，携手开启 电子大宗商品交易数字化升级新征程。 此次发布会以 "数字赋能・智启未来" 为主题，汇聚了政府领导、行业协会负责人、金融机构代表及企业领袖等众多嘉宾。中国电子商会会长王宁、滨海 新区区委常委、副区长梁益铭、天津港保税区党委书记、管委会主任尹晓峰等领导致辞，高度肯定了天津电交所成立的战略意义，强调电交所通过赋能 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the successful transformation of the Le Gu E-commerce Town in Nale County, which has integrated digital economy practices into rural development, significantly boosting local employment and agricultural sales [3][4][11]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Le Gu E-commerce Town achieved an online transaction volume of 130 million yuan during the "618" shopping festival, with daily orders exceeding 100,000, benefiting 530 local villagers [3]. - The "village-enterprise integration" model has led to a substantial increase in collective economic income for participating villages, with growth ranging from 57,000 yuan to 192,000 yuan [11]. Group 2: Employment and Training - The initiative has created job opportunities for nearly 100 returnee youths, who have successfully transitioned into roles such as live-streaming salespersons, significantly increasing their monthly incomes [6][9]. - A comprehensive training system has been established, collaborating with universities and professional institutions to provide courses on live-streaming and e-commerce operations [7]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Services - The town has developed a one-stop entrepreneurial service platform that includes support for live-streamer incubation, supply chain integration, and brand promotion, facilitating the growth of local businesses [7][9]. - The integration of logistics and agricultural production allows for a "zero inventory" model, enabling fresh produce to be sold and shipped on the same day, thus reducing logistics costs and enhancing product freshness [11]. Group 4: Future Development - Le Gu E-commerce Town plans to expand its business model beyond agricultural products to include handicrafts and home goods, aiming to create a diverse product matrix [12]. - The initiative aims to establish an agricultural e-commerce incubation center to support 100 small agricultural enterprises, potentially creating over 1,000 jobs [12][14].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-06-17 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.50 | 49.00 | 49.50 | | 20250531 | 2025/05 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.30 | 50.40 | 51.10 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | 社会融资规模增量:当 月值 | 亿元 | | 22871.00 11591.00 | 20623.00 | | 20250613 | 2025/05 | M0(流通中的现金):同 | % | 12.10 | 12.00 | 11.70 | | | | 比 | | | | | | 202506 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, China's economic data showed positive trends, with the added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 5.8% year - on - year, and retail sales of consumer goods growing by 6.4%. High - end manufacturing and digital economy continued to expand, with the added - value of high - tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increasing by 8.6% and 9.1% respectively [2]. - In May, housing prices in all tiers of cities in China declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. Newly - built commercial housing sales area and sales volume decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively from January to May [2]. - Iran may engage in dialogue with the US and Israel and may discuss a proposal to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non - Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons [2]. - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and for 2026 at 1.28 million barrels per day. In May, OPEC +'s average daily crude oil production was 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April [3]. - The price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2507 fell below 60,000 yuan per ton, leading to a slowdown in new lithium production capacity and some companies terminating projects. Lithium enterprises are now focusing on overseas expansion [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - Economic data: In May, the added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%, and the fixed - asset investment from January to May increased by 3.7% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing showed strong growth [2]. - Housing prices: In May, housing prices in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, with new home prices in first - and second - tier cities down 0.2% and first - tier city second - hand home prices down 0.7%. The year - on - year decline continued to narrow. From January to May, newly - built commercial housing sales area and sales volume decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively [2]. - International news: Iran may engage in dialogue with the US and Israel and may discuss a proposal to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non - Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons [2]. - Crude oil: OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and for 2026 at 1.28 million barrels per day. In May, OPEC +'s average daily crude oil production was 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April [3]. - Lithium market: The price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2507 fell below 60,000 yuan per ton, leading to a slowdown in new lithium production capacity and some companies terminating projects. Lithium enterprises are now focusing on overseas expansion [3]. Key Concerns - Key commodities to focus on are urea, asphalt, soybean oil, hot - rolled coils, and Shanghai copper [4]. Night - session Performance No specific performance data is clearly described other than the range of possible changes in the provided charts. Sector Performance - Different commodity sectors had different performances, with precious metals having a 30.87% increase, non - metallic building materials 2.50%, and so on [7]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes had different daily, monthly, and annual returns. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.35%, a monthly increase of 1.23%, and an annual increase of 1.10% [8][9].

Economic Performance - In May, the national economy showed strong resilience and vitality, with industrial added value increasing by 5.8% year-on-year and retail sales of consumer goods rising by 6.4% [1] - The consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating stable demand and supply [1] Industrial Growth - The equipment manufacturing sector saw a significant increase, with added value growing by 9% and contributing 54.3% to industrial production [1] - High-tech manufacturing added value rose by 8.6%, and digital product manufacturing increased by 9.1%, both outpacing overall industrial growth [2] New Energy and Technology - Production of new energy vehicles and solar cells surged by 31.7% and 27.8% respectively, highlighting the rapid growth in these sectors [2] - The production of industrial robots increased by 32% from January to May, and the added value of smart vehicle equipment manufacturing grew by 26.8% [2] Trade Performance - In May, the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with exports rising by 6.3% [2] - Despite challenges in the global economy, trade with ASEAN and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative continued to grow, showcasing the diversification of China's trade [2] Economic Outlook - The overall economic growth trend remains stable, with no changes in innovation-driven development, green transformation, high-level opening up, and continuous improvement in people's livelihoods [3] - The economy's strong foundation and resilience provide confidence in overcoming various risks and challenges [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Luban Workshop has become a significant symbol of vocational education cooperation between China and Central Asian countries, providing local youth with advanced skills and knowledge to contribute to the Belt and Road Initiative [1][2]. Group 1: Development and Impact - The establishment of Luban Workshops in five Central Asian countries has enabled local youth to engage with professional equipment and acquire practical skills, thus becoming a driving force for local economic and social development [2][3]. - Over 1,500 undergraduate and graduate students from Central Asia have received training at the workshops, with the number increasing nearly threefold since the workshops were established [3]. - The employment rate for graduates from the workshops has reached 70%, with many securing positions in key industries, including the Tajikistan government construction committee [3][7]. Group 2: Curriculum and Training - The workshops incorporate advanced Chinese vocational education practices, including modular course design and a dual-track training system that combines theoretical teaching with practical skills [3][9]. - Courses offered at the workshops focus on in-demand fields such as green energy technology, automation, and digital manufacturing, aligning with local economic development needs [3][6]. - The Kazakhstan Luban Workshop has developed seven standard courses related to electric vehicles and autonomous vehicle assembly, responding to the rapid growth of the local automotive industry [5][6]. Group 3: International Collaboration - The Luban Workshop model facilitates collaboration between Chinese and Central Asian educational institutions, enhancing the training of technical talent and fostering cultural exchange [8][9]. - Joint training programs, such as the "2+2" model, allow Tajik students to study in China, further strengthening educational ties [7][8]. - The workshops serve as platforms for international scientific and vocational education exchanges, contributing to the development of high-quality talent in critical fields like construction, water conservancy, and energy [8][9].

Economic Overview - In May, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in the industrial sector [4][5] - The equipment manufacturing industry saw a significant increase, with added value growing by 9.0%, contributing 54.3% to industrial production [4][5] - The service industry production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [4][5] Consumer Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year in May, up by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [5][6] - The growth in retail sales was driven by policies promoting the replacement of old products, particularly in categories such as home appliances and communication devices, which contributed 1.9 percentage points to the total retail sales [7] Employment and Price Stability - The urban unemployment rate in May was 5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a stable employment situation [4][5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline, with core CPI excluding food and energy rising compared to the previous month, reflecting mixed price pressures [5] Trade and Export Performance - In May, the total value of goods imports and exports increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 6.3% [6] - The export of mechanical and electrical products rose by 9.3%, with integrated circuit exports increasing by 18.9%, highlighting strong performance in key export categories [6] Investment and Innovation - Investment in equipment and tools grew by 17.3% in the first five months, contributing 2.3 percentage points to overall investment growth [7] - The high-tech manufacturing sector's added value increased by 8.6%, with digital product manufacturing growing by 9.1%, indicating a robust expansion of new economic drivers [5][10] Future Outlook - The economic foundation remains solid, with policies in place to support stable growth and address external challenges [9][10] - The development of new industries and the upgrading of traditional sectors are expected to continue, with significant growth in areas such as smart manufacturing and digital economy [10][11]

Economic Overview - In May, the national economy demonstrated resilience, maintaining overall stability and progress, with stable growth in production demand and a generally stable employment situation [1][3] - The combination of policy effects has shown positive results in stabilizing the economy and promoting development [1] Industrial Performance - In May, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, indicating strong resilience and growth potential [2] - The high-end manufacturing sector saw significant growth, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9% and 8.6% respectively [2] - The digital economy's integration has accelerated, with the added value of digital product manufacturing growing by 9.1%, significantly outpacing overall industrial growth [2] - Green production is improving, with production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles increasing by 31.7% and 52.5% respectively [2] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, reflecting enhanced consumer vitality [4] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has shown continued effectiveness, with significant year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment [4] - The tourism sector has also seen a boost, with domestic travel during the "May Day" holiday increasing by 6.4% year-on-year [4] Trade Performance - In May, China's total goods import and export volume grew by 2.7%, with exports increasing by 6.3%, demonstrating resilience in foreign trade [7] - Despite a decline in trade with the US, trade with ASEAN, the EU, and countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative continued to grow, showcasing the diversification of China's foreign trade [7] - Private foreign trade enterprises have shown strong market adaptability, with their import and export volume increasing by 7% year-on-year in the first five months [7]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong province is accelerating its green and low-carbon transformation by focusing on industrial low-carbon upgrades, achieving significant growth in various sectors, particularly in high-end manufacturing and new materials [1][2][3]. Group 1: Industrial Growth and Transformation - In the first quarter of this year, Shandong's equipment manufacturing industry added value increased by 13.9% year-on-year, which is 3.9 percentage points higher than the previous year [1]. - The province has seen a 12.2% year-on-year increase in technological transformation investments, indicating a sustained enhancement in driving force [1]. - The production of industrial robots and optoelectronic devices surged by 76.2% and 25.4%, respectively, driven by new technologies [1]. Group 2: Cluster Development - The establishment of industrial clusters is emphasized, with a "chain master" enterprise leading the development of an entire industrial cluster, such as the 10,000 tons/year ASA special engineering resin project in Dongying [1]. - The project, with a total investment of 2.2 billion yuan, marks a successful transition from petroleum refining to high-end chemicals and new materials, creating nine industrial chains [1]. - Lijin County's high-end resin new materials cluster has been recognized as a provincial-level characteristic industrial cluster, contributing to an industrial output value exceeding 110 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - The launch of humanoid robots by a company in Dongying signifies advancements in robotics, with plans to enhance functionality through additional sensory components [4]. - The marine engineering equipment manufacturing sector is also expanding, with a company in Penglai set to deliver 25 MR oil chemical ships this year, indicating strong demand and order backlog [4]. Group 4: Low-Carbon Development - Shandong has built the country's first zero-carbon highway, the Jizhe Expressway, featuring a total photovoltaic installed capacity of 30 megawatts, enabling sustainable zero-carbon operation [7]. - The province has constructed 22 new and upgraded highways, increasing the total mileage from 7,473 kilometers to 8,763.6 kilometers, maintaining a leading position nationally [7]. - The implementation of energy-saving measures at companies, such as the East Arjuna Co., has resulted in a reduction of over 3,400 tons of CO2 emissions annually [8]. Group 5: Future Planning and Goals - Shandong aims to enhance its industrial structure by increasing the proportion of advanced production capacity in key industries like steel and petrochemicals to over 40% [3]. - The province plans to cultivate 45 pillar clusters and 96 leading enterprises, targeting a revenue of 5.4 trillion yuan from pillar clusters by 2024, with a growth rate of 5.9% [3]. - The strategic plan for the "14th Five-Year Plan" includes a focus on new energy vehicles, with an expected production of over 1 million units by the end of the period [6].