Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy signals, with interest rate cut expectations reduced from three to two by the end of 2025 [1] - Despite a slight recovery in the dollar index, the tightening monetary policy remains a significant bearish factor for gold prices [1] - Global trade tensions and ongoing Middle East conflicts are boosting safe-haven demand, providing support for gold prices and limiting further declines [1] Group 2 - The current bullish momentum in gold is evident, with clear resistance at the 3380-3385 range, while the price has not breached the upward channel, maintaining a complete medium to long-term upward structure [3] - The daily chart shows a doji candlestick pattern, with prices retracing to the middle Bollinger Band, indicating a continued oscillating downward trend [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold in the 3375-3380 range, with a stop loss at 3388 and a target of 3360-3340 [3]

周五（6月20日）亚洲时段，现货黄金震荡偏弱，黄金价格从日高3370回落近20美元，一度跌破3350美 元，随着中东地缘政治紧张局势的缓和削弱避险需求，以及美联储的通胀预警提高了降息前景的不确定 性，黄金周线迈向收跌。 【要闻速递】 金价似乎已经见顶，目前已连续第二个交易日下跌。将会有最新消息来弥补焦虑的市场和避险资产表现 平平之间的差距。 引发更广泛避险情绪的一个潜在因素是美国直接介入的可能性，这种可能性似乎越来越大。特朗普总统 一如既往地在这个问题上保持着他一贯的模糊态度。 不过，美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普的发言人表示，特朗普将在两周内决定是否加入以色列对伊朗的攻 击，这减轻人们对一场可能威胁能源流动并引发通胀的区域性战争的担忧。 紧张局势的缓解发生在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔早些时候警告特朗普加征关税可能带来通胀风险之 后。这可能会阻碍美联储降息的空间，而这对黄金而言是不利的，因为黄金不支付利息，通常在低利率 环境中表现更好。 华尔街主要银行在黄金是否能够延续创纪录涨势的问题上出现分歧。高盛预测到明年金价将达到4000美 元，而花旗则认为到2026年金价将跌破3000美元。 【技术面分析】 周图：金价走势本 ...

基本面： 周五（6月20日）银价早盘窄幅震荡盘整，继续市场看涨多单布局。美联储对通胀风险的高度警惕降低了恢复降息的可能性，这对金价构成直接压力。市场 普遍认为，高利率环境会削弱黄金的吸引力，因为投资者更倾向于持有收益更高的资产，如债券或美元计价资产。与美联储的鹰派立场形成鲜明对比的是， 地缘政治紧张局势为金价提供了重要的避险支撑。2025年6月19日，以色列对伊朗核目标的轰炸以及伊朗对以色列医院的导弹和无人机袭击，标志着双方持 续一周的空中战争进一步升级。伊朗革命卫队声称其袭击针对以色列军事和情报设施，而以色列则指责伊朗蓄意攻击平民目标，违反国际法。以色列总理内 塔尼亚胡甚至表示，其空袭行动旨在动摇伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊政权的根基，迫使伊朗在核计划、弹道导弹及地区影响力上做出根本性让步。 此外，外交努力也在紧张进行中。据路透社报道，美国中东问题特使威特科夫与伊朗外长阿拉格齐通过多次电话沟通，试图通过外交途径化解危机。伊朗方 面表示，只有以色列停止袭击，德黑兰才会重返谈判桌。英国、法国、德国三国（E3）与欧盟也计划于6月20日在日内瓦与伊朗外长会晤，寻求外交解决方 案。这些外交动态表明，地缘政治风险短期内难以消退 ...

避险需求减退叠加美联储通胀预警 黄金或迎三周来首周下跌 金十数据6月20日讯，黄金正迈向三周来的首次周度下跌，中东紧张局势缓和削弱了避险需求，而美联 储的通胀警告令降息预期降温。周五金价波动不大，本周累计下跌近2%。美国总统特朗普的发言人表 示，将在两周内决定是否参与以色列对伊朗的袭击，这缓解了地区全面战争威胁能源供应并推高通胀的 担忧。局势缓和之前，美联储主席鲍威尔曾警示关税政策带来的通胀风险。这可能加大美联储降息难 度，对黄金构成利空。尽管今年金价仍累计上涨约30%，且距离4月创下的3500美元历史高点不远，但 本周已有迹象显示，鉴于金价处于高位，投资者正转向白银和铂金作为避险选择。华尔街大行对黄金能 否延续创纪录涨势存在分歧。高盛重申明年4000美元的预期，而花旗预计2026年金价将回落至3000美元 下方。 ...

Group 1: US Dollar and Federal Reserve - The US dollar has been supported by safe-haven demand due to potential conflicts in the Middle East and the possibility of US involvement [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on inflation has reinforced the dollar's performance [1] - Goldman Sachs strategists expect the Fed to lower interest rates twice this year despite raising short-term inflation expectations [1] Group 2: UK Pound and Bank of England - The Bank of England maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, aligning with market expectations, with a 6-3 voting outcome [4] - The sentiment shifted from "the central bank will fight inflation" to "the rate cut window is opening" following the decision [5] - Market participants are closely monitoring labor market data and energy prices for future policy direction [6] Group 3: Japanese Yen and Government Bonds - The USD/JPY exchange rate showed an upward trend amid ongoing geopolitical concerns, with the dollar outperforming the yen [7] - Japan plans to reduce its government bond issuance by 500 billion yen for the fiscal year 2025/2026, adjusting the issuance of various bond maturities [7] Group 4: Swiss Franc and Swiss National Bank - The Swiss National Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 0%, marking the sixth rate cut since March 2024 [8] - The accompanying downward adjustment of inflation expectations and cautious outlook on the global economy significantly impacted the currency market [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is not explicitly stated in the report, but the overall market trend indicates a preference for fixed income and low-risk products, suggesting a cautious outlook for the industry. Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for risk-averse investment products is driving the issuance of new structured financial products, with fixed income wealth management products, bond funds, and life insurance dominating the market [1][4]. - During the period from May 31 to June 13, 2025, a total of 2,530 new wealth management products were launched, with closed-end net value products being the most prevalent [11][16]. - The report indicates a significant shift towards fixed income products, with 98.26% of new products being fixed income, reflecting a conservative risk appetite among investors [11][16]. - The issuance of public funds saw an increase, with 55 new funds launched, totaling 39.948 billion units, driven primarily by the first week of June [23][24]. - The bond fund segment continues to gain traction, with its share rising from 47.15% to 58.77%, indicating a strong preference for low-risk investment options [24][31]. - Life insurance products are also seeing a resurgence, particularly traditional life insurance, which accounted for 81.5% of new products, reflecting a stable demand for guaranteed returns [41][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Bank Wealth Management Products - The market saw the issuance of 2,530 new wealth management products, with 78.50% being closed-end net value types and 83.00% classified as medium-low risk [11][16]. - Fixed income products dominate the new offerings, with 98.26% of new products being fixed income, indicating a conservative investor sentiment [11][16]. - The report notes a clear differentiation in product offerings between state-owned wealth management companies and city commercial banks, with the former focusing on national markets and the latter on local markets [17][18]. 2. Fund Products - A total of 55 new public funds were launched, with a total issuance of 399.48 billion units, marking an increase from the previous period [23][24]. - Bond funds have seen a significant increase in issuance, now accounting for 58.77% of new funds, reflecting a shift towards safer investment options amid market volatility [24][31]. - The report highlights a decline in the issuance of equity funds, with only 26 new equity funds launched, representing a significant drop in both number and total issuance [25][31]. 3. Insurance Products - A total of 34 new insurance products were launched, with life insurance products increasing by 50% compared to the previous period [41][42]. - Traditional life insurance products remain the most popular, making up 81.5% of new offerings, driven by their clear protection functions and stable returns [42]. - The report indicates a trend towards diversification in annuity products, with a mix of retirement and education-focused offerings [43].

随着以色列与伊朗冲突的持续升级，黄金价格在周二小幅走高，现货金交投逼近3400美元/盎司关口， 展现出地缘政治紧张局势下的避险特性。然而，美元的同步走强对金价构成一定压制，使得涨幅受限。 市场目前聚焦于北京时间周三即将召开的美联储政策会议和鲍威尔的表态，这或将成为决定贵金属下一 阶段走势的关键节点。 从目前盘面来看，地缘政治是支撑黄金上涨的核心因素。伊朗与以色列的对峙不断发酵，中东局势牵动 全球投资者神经，资金持续涌向避险资产，黄金首当其冲成为受益标的。但与此同时，美元指数的持续 攀升却削弱了黄金的上涨动力。通常而言，强势美元会提升持有黄金的机会成本，抑制国际买盘需求。 值得注意的是，白银市场表现更为抢眼。现货银突破37美元/盎司，创下2012年2月以来新高，并被花旗 看好未来6-12个月内可能升至40美元。这一预期主要基于白银工业需求增长（尤其在绿色能源、光伏与 电动车领域）与投资需求同步上升的双重推动。 其他贵金属如铂金和钯金也跟随上涨，反映出整体贵金属板块在避险和实物需求交汇的推动下呈现共 振。 但市场真正的关键变量仍在于美联储的政策动向。如果美联储维持当前利率区间不变，且在新闻发布会 中传递出对通胀放 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite weak retail sales data in the US and cautious consumer spending, the US dollar has strengthened against major currencies, with the dollar index rising by 0.64% to 98.8 points, suggesting a shift in market drivers from economic fundamentals to geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations [1][3][4] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly Israel's military actions against Iran, have escalated global risk sentiment, leading to a resurgence of the dollar's safe-haven status [3] - The Federal Reserve's policy outlook is a focal point for the market, with expectations that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, while investors are keenly watching for signals regarding future rate cuts or a prolonged period of high rates to combat persistent core inflation [3][4] - Specific currency movements include the euro declining by 0.68% to 1.1481 USD, influenced by disappointing economic data from the Eurozone and concerns over the European Central Bank's policy space, and the British pound falling by 1.08% to 1.3430 USD amid worries about the UK's economic recovery [3][4] - The Japanese yen has shown a notable decline, with the dollar rising by 0.4% to 145.32 yen, as the Bank of Japan maintained its dovish stance and indicated a slowdown in balance sheet reduction [4] - The Australian dollar has decreased by 0.8% to 0.6474 USD, reflecting heightened risk aversion among global investors, exacerbated by volatility in the commodity markets and weak demand in the Asia-Pacific region [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to influence the dollar's trajectory, with potential hawkish signals from the Fed likely to support further dollar strength [4]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices are experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, with investors focusing on the Federal Reserve's dot plot for 2025 to assess potential adjustments to the 50 basis points rate cut [1] - The market is pricing in a 65.2% probability of a 50 basis points rate cut or more by the end of December, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is only 6.6% [1] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate concerns over inflation, particularly due to potential tariff policies from the Trump administration that could increase prices [1] - The current economic landscape is characterized by multiple uncertainties, including tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, leading the Federal Reserve to favor maintaining high interest rates to address potential inflation risks [1] Silver Market Outlook - Silver has outperformed gold in the current risk-off environment, with spot silver prices rising nearly 2% to reach a 13-year high of $37.22 per ounce [1] - Citigroup forecasts that silver prices could further rise to $40 within the next 6 to 12 months, driven by both safe-haven demand and increasing industrial demand [1] - In contrast, gold's price increase has been more moderate due to its stronger safe-haven characteristics and lack of industrial demand support [1] Gold Market Outlook - The gold market will be influenced by multiple factors, including persistent geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, which will continue to support gold prices [2] - The strength of the US dollar and the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve may limit the upside potential for gold prices [2] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's policy guidance, dollar movements, and developments in the Middle East [2] - Long-term, a low interest rate environment and global economic uncertainty will enhance gold's appeal, although short-term volatility may increase [2] Market Data - Current spot gold price is approximately $3399 per ounce [2] - Current spot silver price is $36.32 per ounce [2] Financial Market Highlights - Key economic data to watch includes the UK May CPI year-on-year rate and retail price index, as well as US May building permits and housing starts [2] - The US dollar index is currently in a fluctuating rebound phase, with a focus on the resistance level at 100.00 [2]

Group 1 - The situation has rapidly escalated following Israel's attack on Iran, leading to increased risk aversion and a rise in gold prices, which have once again surpassed 3400 [1] - Market sentiment is being affected by trade negotiations and geopolitical developments, resulting in increased volatility in gold prices; a "double top" pattern has formed, indicating potential resistance at the previous high of 3430 [1] - In the medium to long term, factors such as the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, increasing uncertainty in overseas macro policies, and a global trend towards de-dollarization are expected to provide support for gold prices, suggesting opportunities for strategic buying during pullbacks [1] Group 2 - The gold stock ETF (code: 517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (code: 931238), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales to reflect the overall performance of the gold industry [1] - The index constituents include gold mining companies and jewelry firms, showcasing significant industry concentration [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai CSI Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Gold Industry Stock ETF Initiated Link C (021674) and Link A (021673) [1]