全球通胀问题正逐渐淡出经济叙事的核心焦点，经济增长乏力已成为更紧迫的挑战 文｜《财经》研究员 顾欣宇 编辑｜张威 在刚过去的"超级央行周"，全球央行间的政策呈现显著分化。 北京时间2025年12月18日-19日，英国央行将基准利率下调25个基点，从4.00%下调至3.75%，日本央行宣布将基准利率上调25个基点至0.75%，欧洲央行 宣布按兵不动，主要再融资利率和边际贷款利率维持在2.15%和2.40%不变。 在此之前，北京时间2025年12月11日凌晨，美联储宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%。本轮降息周期起始于2024年9月。在 这一轮降息周期内美联储已经累计降息175个基点。 新兴市场方面，北京时间2025年12月17日，泰国宣布降息25个基点，从1.50%降至1.25%。同一天，印尼央行宣布将利率维持在4.75%。 将视线拉回到中国，北京时间2025年12月11日，中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币 政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持 ...

Group 1 - The former Bank of Japan committee member Yutaka Harada emphasizes the need for a cautious approach to interest rate hikes by the central bank, advocating for the government to actively stimulate the economy through fiscal, monetary, and tax policies to achieve a "high-pressure economy" [1] - Harada attributes persistent inflation partly to supply-side factors, including rising rice prices, and suggests that further interest rate increases may have limited impact on cost-driven price pressures [1] - The Bank of Japan recently raised borrowing costs to their highest level in 30 years, indicating progress towards its price stability target, but the government's significant spending increases under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida have raised concerns among some investors [1] Group 2 - Harada recommends that necessary expenditures should be concentrated in the initial budget, while additional budgets should be reduced to restore their original, limited purpose [3] - He urges the Bank of Japan to maintain a certain distance in discussions regarding the neutral interest rate, which is difficult to pinpoint due to its dependence on the natural rate and expected inflation [3] - Harada expresses concerns that many individuals are paying more taxes without a corresponding increase in real income, highlighting the need for adjustments in tax rates to align with rising nominal income levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan should adopt a cautious stance on interest rate hikes while the government should utilize fiscal, monetary, and tax policies to inject stronger momentum into the economy [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - Yutaka Harada emphasized the need for the Bank of Japan to be careful with interest rate increases, as rapid hikes could overly tighten policies and exert unnecessary pressure on the economy [1] - The Bank of Japan recently raised borrowing costs to the highest level in 30 years, indicating that it believes the economy is gradually approaching its price stability target [1] Group 2: Fiscal Policy - Harada supports the government's proactive and "responsible" fiscal policy, suggesting that a "high-pressure economy" could lead to increased wages due to labor shortages, thereby improving overall productivity in Japan [1] - The government is nearing completion of its preliminary budget for the new fiscal year starting in April, which includes the largest economic stimulus plan since the pandemic [2] - Harada advised that necessary expenditures should be concentrated in the initial budget, while temporary supplementary budgets should be reduced in scale to maintain their limited, supplementary role [2] Group 3: Taxation - Harada pointed out that many taxpayers are paying more taxes without a real increase in purchasing power, highlighting the burden of the current progressive income tax system in an inflationary context [2] - He urged the government to adjust the tax system, particularly tax brackets, in line with rising nominal incomes [1][2] Group 4: Neutral Interest Rate - Harada cautioned the Bank of Japan to maintain distance when discussing the concept of "neutral interest rate," which is difficult to define due to its dependence on natural rates and inflation expectations [2] - He warned that an excessive focus on neutral interest rates could hinder the flexibility of policy decisions [2]

Core Viewpoint - A former member of the Bank of Japan's policy committee suggests that the central bank should adopt a cautious approach to interest rate hikes while the government strives to boost the economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy Recommendations - The government should fully utilize fiscal, monetary, and tax policies to stimulate demand and achieve a "high-pressure" economy [1][3]. - The former committee member supports responsible and proactive fiscal policies from the government, anticipating that labor shortages in a high-pressure economic environment will improve worker compensation and productivity [3][8]. Group 2: Interest Rate and Inflation Insights - Rapid actions on interest rate hikes could lead to excessive tightening, with current inflation partly driven by supply-side factors, such as rising rice prices [3][7]. - The Bank of Japan recently raised borrowing costs to the highest level in 30 years, believing the economy is nearing its price stability target, which has caused some investor unease [3][8]. Group 3: Budgeting and Fiscal Strategy - The government is finalizing the initial budget for the new fiscal year starting in April, having announced the largest economic stimulus package since the pandemic [8]. - It is recommended that necessary expenditures be concentrated in the initial budget, while additional budgets should be reduced to restore their limited role [4][8]. Group 4: Neutral Interest Rate Discussion - The former committee member advises the Bank of Japan to maintain some distance in discussions about the neutral interest rate, which is difficult to define due to its dependence on natural rates and inflation expectations [5][8]. - Over-focusing on the neutral interest rate could complicate decision-making for the Bank of Japan [5].

Group 1: Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy - Former Bank of Japan board member Makoto Sakurai indicated that the central bank may raise interest rates three more times during Governor Kazuo Ueda's term until early 2028, potentially reaching 1.5% [1][6] - The next rate hike is expected around June or July 2024, with the rate increasing to 1.0%, depending on the strength of the U.S. economy and domestic wage and price developments in Japan [1][6] - The internal estimate for the neutral interest rate level is around 1.75%, suggesting that raising rates to 1.5% would provide room for future cuts while remaining below the neutral level [1][6] Group 2: Gold Price Forecast - JPMorgan forecasts that uncertainty in tariff policies and strong demand from ETFs and central banks will push gold prices above $4,000 per ounce by 2025, with potential to exceed $5,055 by the end of 2026 due to new demand from China's insurance sector and cryptocurrency [2][7] - The long-term trend of diversifying gold in official reserves and by investors is expected to continue, with gold demand driving prices towards $5,000 per ounce by the end of 2026 [2][7] Group 3: Market Reactions - Gold prices surged past the $4,400 mark, trading around $4,480, supported by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials and renewed market risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions [3][8] - The USD/JPY pair experienced slight declines, trading around 156.00, influenced by profit-taking and a weaker dollar index following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials [4][9] - The USD/CAD pair also saw a decline, trading at approximately 1.3740, affected by a weaker dollar index and positive economic data from Canada [5][10]

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货12月23日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计899663千克，今日仓单较上一 日减少1805千克。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 110851 | 0 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 120531 | 0 | | | 中工美供应链 | 516960 | -3277 | | | 合计 | 748342 | -3277 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 151321 | 1472 | | 总计 | | 899663 | -1805 | 【基本面消息】 美联储理事米兰表示，随着近期货币政策调整的推进，他此前主张降息50个基点的必要性已有所减弱。 米兰指出，此前通胀数据中出现了一些异常波动，部分与政府停摆有关。这些异常信号表明，美联储政 策立场应朝更宽松的方向调整。 他强调，目前并未看到经济在短期内陷入衰退的风险，但认为中性利率水平已明显下移，货币政策必须 反映这一结构性变化。若政策利率未能持续下调以贴近新的中性水平，反而可能增加经济陷入衰退的风 险。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报16200元 ...

另一个关键风险是美联储可能出现政策错误。今年美国经济即使面对相对较高的利率，但仍然表现稳健 的情况下，有市场人士质疑美联储是否需要进一步减息。这显示美联储对中性利率的估算，即既不会过 度刺激亦不会过度抑制经济的利率水平可能过高。其中性利率的中位数预测目前约为3%，但当前利率 处于4至5%以上，而美国经济仍保持强劲增长，将目标定于3%的利率可能过于宽松。如美联储坚持这 一观点并进一步减息，或会引发通胀上升，从而导致政策失误。 通胀可能成为更大的忧虑，因为投资市场目前似乎低估这个风险。尽管美元转弱带来挑战，但拥有跨国 业务的美国公司可能因美元疲弱而增加收入，因为这会降低其商品及服务在海外市场的价格。 施罗德投资管理表示，尽管今年初，投资者曾因美国关税上升、美元转弱，以及环球资金流出美国等问 题感到忧虑，但美国经济的增长前景仍然稳健，美股两大指数——标普500指数及纳斯达克指数已创下 历史新高。美联储的减息决定亦可能利好投资市场，因为历史证明，减息若发生于经济增长期(而非经 济衰退期)，对股市的影响通常是正面的。施罗德指出，"增长空间"是指一些长期增长前景被市场低估 的公司，投资者可通过寻找"资本增长空间"实现超越 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Japanese economy, indicating a shift in focus from anti-inflation measures to boosting potential growth rates [14]. Core Insights - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised its policy interest rate from approximately 0.5% to 0.75%, aligning with market expectations and indicating a normalization of monetary policy [10][11]. - The report highlights that the core CPI in Japan is nearing the target of stable 2% inflation, with expectations that it may drop below this level in early 2026 [16][19]. - The fiscal policy under Prime Minister Kishi is described as "active but responsible," aiming to balance economic stimulation with fiscal sustainability [104][113]. Summary by Sections 1. Background and Outlook of BOJ's Monetary Policy - The BOJ's decision to raise interest rates is driven by nearing inflation targets and pressures from yen depreciation [6][17]. - The central bank's stance remains cautious, with no new estimates provided for the neutral interest rate, which is crucial for future rate hikes [10][25]. - The report notes that the BOJ's future rate adjustments will depend on comprehensive assessments of actual rates and loan conditions [10][11]. 2. Yen Carry Trade: Scale Evolution, Trends, and Drivers - The report discusses the evolution of yen carry trades, noting that the scale of foreign banks' yen funding has fluctuated, peaking at 14.4 trillion yen in May before declining [38]. - The attractiveness of yen carry trades has increased due to a decrease in implied volatility of the USD/JPY exchange rate [43]. 3. Fiscal Sustainability in Japan: Impact of Rising Interest Rates on Government Debt - Japan's government debt has been on the rise since the 1990s, with interest payments increasing significantly due to the BOJ's rate hikes [94][101]. - The report expresses concerns about the sustainability of Kishi's expansionary fiscal policies amid rising interest rates [90][93]. - The fiscal stimulus plan, amounting to 21.3 trillion yen, is expected to boost real GDP by approximately 0.3% [112][113].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Japanese economy, suggesting a shift from extreme monetary easing to a neutral interest rate, with expectations of further policy adjustments in the future [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Japan's economy is gradually recovering, with inflation nearing the 2% target, prompting the Bank of Japan to end its ultra-loose monetary policy [1][4]. - The market has largely priced in the December interest rate hike, and the yen depreciated post-hike, but concerns about the Bank of Japan lagging behind have been alleviated [1][4]. - The government's proactive fiscal expansion policy, while increasing debt pressure, is deemed manageable without triggering systemic shocks [1][4][6]. - The likelihood of significant market disruption from the interest rate hike is low due to effective communication from the Bank of Japan and the distinct nature of this rate hike compared to previous instances [1][5]. Summary by Sections Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy - Japan's potential economic growth is expected to remain above 0.5%, supported by fiscal stimulus measures projected to boost GDP by approximately 0.3% in the first half of 2026 [2][4]. - Core inflation is anticipated to gradually rise back to near 2%, despite a potential temporary dip below this threshold in early 2026 [2][4][7]. Market Reactions and Financial Institutions - The banking sector has outperformed the Tokyo Stock Exchange index, benefiting from improved core profitability and low credit costs, despite facing unrealized losses from rising bond yields [2][21]. - Japanese financial institutions are expected to manage risks effectively, reducing the likelihood of systemic risks despite holding significant amounts of government bonds [6][19]. Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The new government's fiscal policy is characterized as "active but responsible," focusing on balancing economic growth with debt sustainability [18][15]. - Short-term interest payment pressures are manageable, but long-term risks are significant, with projections indicating that new interest payments could match current social security expenditures by 2034 [16][13]. Global Market Implications - The interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is expected to have a controlled impact on both the domestic financial system and global markets, with particular attention on the divergence between Japan's monetary policy and anticipated U.S. rate cuts in 2026 [23][24]. - The potential for Japanese institutions to sell U.S. Treasuries and repatriate funds is limited due to varying investment strategies among different types of institutions [11][12].

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇12月22日｜美联储理事米兰表示，随着近期货币政策调整的推进，他此前主张降息50个基点的必 要性已有所减弱。米兰指出，此前通胀数据中出现了一些异常波动，部分与政府停摆有关。这些异常信 号表明，美联储政策立场应朝更宽松的方向调整。他强调，目前并未看到经济在短期内陷入衰退的风 险，但认为中性利率水平已明显下移，货币政策必须反映这一结构性变化。若政策利率未能持续下调以 贴近新的中性水平，反而可能增加经济陷入衰退的风险。此外，对于自身任期问题，米兰坦言尚不确定 是否会留任。他表示：如果到1月底仍未有继任者获得确认，我将默认自己将继续履职。 ...