美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯周一表示，鉴于限制利率的结构性因素尚未消失，美国经济的 中性利率可能与疫情前的水平相差无几。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Challenges - The central theme of the central bank's annual meeting is "Monetary Policy and Its Challenges," focusing on the dual objectives of full employment and price stability faced by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Federal Reserve has been committed to achieving its dual mandate from Congress, aiming for sustainable economic growth in the U.S. [1][2] - The U.S. economy has entered its longest recorded growth cycle, with a significant decrease in unemployment rates and stable inflation around 2% until 2019 [2][3] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Phases - The analysis framework divides U.S. economic development since World War II into three significant periods, each facing critical issues [3][4] - The first period (1950-1982) dealt with the challenge of maintaining price stability amidst economic fluctuations and inflation pressures [4][5] - The second period (1983-2009) saw a transition from "Great Moderation" to "Great Recession," raising concerns about financial excesses and the sustainability of economic growth [6][8] - The third period (2010-2019) is characterized by a new normal, with low inflation and interest rates, posing challenges for the Federal Reserve in achieving its dual objectives [9][10] Group 3: Key Issues in Monetary Policy - The first key issue is whether central banks can resist inflationary pressures while maintaining their inflation targets, with the Federal Reserve successfully keeping average inflation below 2% over the past 25 years [10][11] - The second issue revolves around whether long-term economic prosperity supported by monetary policy inevitably leads to financial excesses, highlighting the need for vigilant risk management [11][12] - The third issue focuses on how the Federal Reserve can achieve full employment and price stability in a low-inflation, low-interest-rate environment, emphasizing the importance of a robust monetary policy framework [12][13] Group 4: Trade Policy Uncertainty - Incorporating trade policy uncertainty into the monetary policy framework presents a new challenge, as trade policy is primarily determined by Congress and the federal government [13][14] - The Federal Reserve will closely monitor the impact of trade policy uncertainty on macroeconomic conditions, particularly in light of global economic slowdowns and low inflation [14][15] Group 5: Reevaluation of Monetary Policy Framework - The need to reassess the monetary policy framework arises from significant changes in the macroeconomic and financial landscape since the 2008 financial crisis [15][16] - Discussions are ongoing regarding the implications of low-interest-rate policies, the use of different policy tools in normal versus crisis periods, and improving communication mechanisms related to monetary policy [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland Fed President Harmack maintains a cautious stance on interest rate cuts as long as inflation remains a threat, emphasizing the need for moderate tightening to bring inflation back to target levels [1] Group 1: Inflation Concerns - Harmack stated that inflation has been above target for four consecutive years and must be controlled [1] - She expressed concerns about prematurely shifting to a loose monetary policy, which could reignite inflation pressures [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - This viewpoint contrasts sharply with market sentiment, as Fed Chair Powell indicated that current conditions "may require" policy easing, leading to a significant market bet on a rate cut in September [1] - According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders estimate a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut by the FOMC in September [1] Group 3: Neutral Interest Rate - Harmack revealed her assessment of the so-called "neutral interest rate" is higher than that of most Fed officials [1] - As a former Goldman Sachs executive, she will not have voting rights on the FOMC until 2026 [1] Group 4: Other Hawkish Voices - Kansas City Fed President Schmid also expressed skepticism about rate cuts in a recent interview [1] - Schmid is a voting member of the FOMC this year but will not have voting rights again until 2028 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential interest rate cut in September, while cautioning about rising risks in the labor market, which is a central theme of the current economic discussions [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Powell's remarks suggest that the Fed's policy remains in a restrictive range, with a shift in risk balance potentially necessitating a policy adjustment [1]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to approximately 86%, according to the CME FedWatch tool [1]. - Powell emphasized that monetary policy does not have a preset path, leaving the extent and pace of any rate cuts for future discussion [1][2]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Powell warned of increasing downside risks in the employment sector, which could manifest as a wave of layoffs if the trend continues [2]. - The average monthly increase in non-farm payrolls for July was only 35,000, significantly below the expected 168,000 for 2024 [1][2]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Inflation - Powell noted that the current interest rate levels are closer to neutral than they were a year ago, suggesting that the restrictive nature of monetary policy has eased [2]. - Concerns were raised regarding the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration, which could lead to increased price pressures in the coming months, complicating the Fed's dual mandate [2]. - The market may be disappointed if it expects a rapid return to a low interest rate environment, as Powell implied that even if a rate cut occurs in September, it may not signal the start of a new easing cycle [2].

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve, particularly his call for the resignation of Fed Governor Cook, indicating potential legal implications for Cook [1] - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting reveal that inflation risks have overshadowed concerns about the labor market, leading to internal divisions regarding interest rate policies [1] - NATO member countries reaffirmed their support for Ukraine during a recent video conference, emphasizing the importance of achieving a just and lasting peace [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, rising from around 3311 to a peak of 3351, driven by Trump's demands regarding the Federal Reserve [2] - The market's reaction to the Fed's meeting minutes was anticipated, with gold showing a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart [2] - Despite the recent bullish trend, the medium-term outlook for gold remains bearish, with targets set at 3245 and potentially down to 3000-2950 [5] Group 3 - Upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and manufacturing statistics for August, are expected to influence market sentiment [6] - The market is at a critical juncture, with potential resistance levels identified at 3358-60 and 3370-75, while support is seen at 3330 and 3320 [7] - The overall market behavior suggests a pattern of initial declines followed by recoveries, with traders preparing for potential volatility as the September Fed meeting approaches [9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the political crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve, particularly in the context of President Trump's influence on interest rate expectations and the potential nomination of a "shadow Fed chair" [3][4][10] - Market expectations for the next Fed chair are focused on candidates with dovish monetary policy stances, including current Fed Governor Waller and NEC Director Hassett [10][16] - The article highlights that the Federal Reserve can set but not manipulate policy rates or the yield curve, emphasizing that interest rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors [5][47] Group 2 - The article suggests a shift in policy from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" as a necessary adjustment for the U.S. government to manage its debt and fiscal deficit [7][9] - It notes that the U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation resembles a "wartime state," necessitating fiscal consolidation through either economic growth or budget cuts [9][19] - The article emphasizes that sustainable fiscal consolidation can lead to a decrease in long-term interest rates, with historical data indicating that a 1% reduction in the fiscal deficit can lower 10-year Treasury yields by 12-35 basis points [7][9]

Group 1 - The core issue behind the current "political crisis" surrounding the Federal Reserve is whether it can "manipulate" interest rates and the implications of a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve [3][4] - Market expectations for the next "shadow Fed chair" candidates are led by Chris Waller (26.6%), Kevin Hassett (13.7%), and Kevin Warsh (7.9%), all of whom are perceived as having dovish monetary policy stances [10][16] - The Federal Reserve's ability to "set" but not "manipulate" policy rates is emphasized, with long-term interest rates being more influenced by macroeconomic factors than short-term rates [5][47] Group 2 - The transition from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" is suggested as necessary for sustainable fiscal reform, with a historical correlation indicating that a 1% reduction in the fiscal deficit could lower 10-year Treasury yields by 12-35 basis points [7][9] - The U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation is described as being in a "quasi-war state," necessitating fiscal consolidation to manage rising deficits and leverage ratios [9][19] - The Federal Reserve's long-term ability to influence the yield curve is limited, with market pricing often being overly dovish during rate hike cycles and overly hawkish during rate cut cycles [6][41]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell faces a complex economic landscape as he prepares for his farewell speech, balancing the dual objectives of price stability and full employment amid conflicting economic indicators [3][4][6] Economic Indicators - Current economic data presents a mixed picture, with manufacturing PMI declining and corporate orders decreasing, indicating pressure on the real economy [4] - Conversely, the job market remains strong with low unemployment rates and stable wage growth, suggesting a relatively healthy economy [4] - Inflationary pressures persist, indicating that price stability has not yet been fully achieved [4][7] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - Powell is caught in a dilemma between addressing high inflation, which could erode purchasing power, and high unemployment, which could lead to social issues and reduced economic growth [3][4] - The internal debate among Federal Reserve officials regarding which risk is greater—high inflation or high unemployment—reflects the complexity of the current economic situation [3] Market Expectations - Investors and the Trump administration anticipate a rate cut at the upcoming September meeting, hoping it will create a more accommodative monetary policy environment and stimulate economic growth [3][4] - The communication surrounding any potential rate cut is crucial, as it could signal either a temporary measure or the beginning of a series of cuts, impacting market confidence [5] Historical Context - Powell's tenure has been marked by unprecedented challenges, including aggressive monetary policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent inflationary pressures [6] - He aims to emulate the flexible policy adjustments of former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan while navigating the current economic uncertainties [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Political Crisis - The Federal Reserve is at the center of a political crisis influenced by Trump's efforts to reshape the deep government, raising questions about its ability to manipulate interest rates[2] - As of August 9, the top three candidates for the "shadow Fed chair" are Waller (26.6%), Hassett (13.7%), and Warsh (7.9%) based on market expectations[2][3] - Trump's potential influence includes nominating a "dovish" shadow chair and possibly replacing Powell if he does not remain[3][4] Group 2: Interest Rate Manipulation - The Fed can set but not manipulate policy rates or the yield curve, as rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors[4] - The neutral interest rate in the U.S. has risen from around 0% to approximately 1-1.5%, indicating that the Fed's rate cuts may have a terminal point around 300-350 basis points[4] - By July 2025, the Fed's target for the federal funds rate should be between 3.8% and 6.3%, with the current rate at 4.3%, suggesting no restrictive policy at present[4] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Monetary Coordination - The Fed's ability to cut rates depends more on fiscal consolidation than on board changes, as government deleveraging can lower the neutral rate and support the Fed's anti-inflation efforts[5] - Historically, a 1% reduction in the fiscal deficit can lead to a 12-35 basis point decrease in the 10-year Treasury yield[5] - Sustainable fiscal consolidation can be achieved through economic growth or budget cuts, each with different political costs and implications[5]

Group 1 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified his comments regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, stating he is not calling for a series of rate cuts but suggesting that the "neutral rate" should be approximately 150 basis points lower than current levels [1][2] - Bessent indicated that the current interest rate level is "too restrictive" and predicted that the Federal Reserve might initiate a series of rate cuts in the coming months, with a potential 50 basis point cut in September [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's current target range for the benchmark interest rate is 4.25% to 4.5%, while officials estimate the long-term neutral rate to be around 3% [1] Group 2 - Bessent's comments have drawn criticism, with some experts arguing that the Treasury Secretary should not publicly express opinions on the neutral rate, as it may exert direct pressure on the Federal Reserve [2][4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted, with futures indicating that the Federal Reserve may not cut rates by a cumulative 150 basis points by the end of next year, and confidence in a 25 basis point cut in September has slightly decreased [4] - St. Louis Fed President James Bullard expressed concerns about inflation following the release of PPI data, suggesting that a 50 basis point cut may not align with the current economic conditions [4]