Report Title - "Precious Metals Weekly Report" [1] Report Date - November 3, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of precious metals continued to adjust last week. The easing of Sino-US economic and trade relations reduced market risk aversion, and Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, putting pressure on gold and silver prices [3][6]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% - 4.00% last Wednesday, the second rate cut this year. Powell was cautious about future rate cuts, which cooled investors' expectations of further monetary easing, leading to an increase in US bond yields and a stronger dollar [3][7]. - Given the current easing of Sino-US economic and trade relations and the reduced expectation of a December rate cut due to Powell's hawkish remarks, the view that gold and silver prices are in a phase adjustment is maintained. Even if there are short - term rebounds due to data, the medium - term adjustment trend of gold and silver remains unchanged. The announcement of gold - related tax policies may affect domestic investment sentiment and increase the volatility of domestic gold prices on Monday [3][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 921.92 | -16.18 | -1.72 | 156891 | 178255 | Yuan/Gram | | Shanghai Gold T+D | 921.02 | 24.33 | 2.71 | 54322 | 247700 | Yuan/Gram | | COMEX Gold | 4013.40 | -113.50 | -2.75 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | | SHFE Silver | 11441 | 109 | 0.96 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/Kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T+D | 11410 | 414 | 3.77 | 1394914 | 4355604 | Yuan/Kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 48.25 | -0.16 | -0.33 | | | US Dollar/Ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The prices of precious metals continued to adjust last week. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and Powell's hawkish remarks led to a decrease in the expectation of a December rate cut, maintaining the view of a phase adjustment in gold and silver prices [3][6][8]. - The Fed cut rates last Wednesday, and Powell's cautious attitude towards future rate cuts led to an increase in US bond yields and a stronger dollar [3][7]. - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and the US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, while the 24% reciprocal tariff will be suspended for another year [7]. - The European Central Bank kept the deposit rate at 2% unchanged for the third time, and the eurozone's Q3 GDP growth was better than expected [7][11]. - The Japanese central bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% unchanged for the sixth consecutive time [11]. - The announcement of gold - related tax policies may affect domestic investment sentiment and increase the volatility of domestic gold prices on Monday [3][8]. - This week, attention should be paid to the US ADP employment report, Fed officials' speeches, and Trump's possible attendance at the US Supreme Court's "tariff ruling" hearing [8]. 3. Important Data Information - ADP will launch weekly employment data from this week. As of October 11, the average number of private - sector jobs in the US increased by 14,250 in four weeks [10]. - The US consumer confidence index in October declined for the third consecutive month, reaching the lowest level since April this year [10]. - The IMF predicts that the US government debt - to - GDP ratio will reach 143.4% by 2030, exceeding that of Italy and Greece for the first time this century [10]. - The eurozone's Q3 GDP increased by 1.3% year - on - year and 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, better than expected, but there was increased differentiation among member states [10]. - The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 2% unchanged for the third time, believing that inflation has reached the 2% target [11]. - The Japanese central bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% unchanged for the sixth consecutive time, with some members opposing and advocating a 25 - basis - point rate hike [11]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration clarified gold - related tax policies, highlighting the tax advantages of exchange - traded gold [11]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - The report presents multiple data charts, including the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, ETF holdings, inventory changes, net long positions, price spreads, and various correlations such as gold - to - silver ratios, inflation expectations, and relationships with other economic indicators [12][15][19][21][23][24][27][31][32][34][38][40][41][42][43]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S.-China trade talks have resulted in a temporary "trade truce," but the U.S. continues to investigate China's compliance with previous trade agreements, indicating ongoing tensions in the economic relationship [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Strategies - The U.S. Trade Representative, Greer, stated that despite the truce, investigations into China's adherence to trade agreements will persist, reflecting a dual strategy of political negotiation and pressure [1][5]. - The U.S. is maintaining its "America First" policy, using trade reviews as a means to safeguard economic security, but this approach has led to negative impacts on the U.S. economy, including rising prices for American households [5]. - The U.S. Senate has passed a resolution to end the tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, highlighting the growing economic pressure on American families due to these policies [5]. Group 2: China's Response and Strategy - China has anticipated U.S. actions and has prepared countermeasures, including a review of export control measures and a conditional pause on port fees, indicating a strategic approach to the ongoing trade conflict [3][6]. - The Chinese government has emphasized the need to compress the list of issues while expanding cooperation, showcasing its willingness to engage in dialogue while rejecting unilateral pressure [7]. - China has announced a one-year suspension of previously planned export control measures on rare earths, which are critical for high-tech industries, signaling a gesture of goodwill while retaining leverage [6][7]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The ongoing "covert conflict" under the guise of a truce will ultimately depend on both parties finding a balance of interests, with China demonstrating cooperation through increased agricultural imports [10]. - If the U.S. continues its strategy of extreme pressure, it risks negative consequences for itself, emphasizing the need for dialogue over confrontation in a deeply interconnected global economy [10].

Core Viewpoint - The potential signing of a trade agreement between the US and China next week has generated significant attention, despite ongoing investigations by the US into China's compliance with previous agreements [3][4]. Group 1: US Position - US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that a trade agreement could be signed as early as next week, surprising many who believed the recent high-level meetings did not meet expectations [3]. - US Trade Representative Greer stated that the US will continue to investigate whether China has adhered to the first phase of the trade agreement, highlighting that not all issues were resolved during the recent meetings [3][4]. - Greer's comments suggest that the US is applying pressure on China to expedite the agreement, with President Trump retaining the option to impose additional tariffs if the agreement is not signed [4][5]. Group 2: China’s Response - China maintains its own pace in addressing trade issues and does not intend to fully comply with US demands, as indicated by Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun [7]. - Guo emphasized that the essence of US-China economic relations is mutual benefit and should serve as a stabilizing force rather than a point of conflict [8]. - China has already taken steps to ease tensions, such as purchasing 180,000 tons of US soybeans and adjusting its tariff list, while expressing concerns over the US's fluctuating stance [8].

Core Points - The meeting between the leaders of China and the United States in Busan, South Korea, lasted approximately 1 hour and 40 minutes, highlighting its significant global attention and implications [1] - Key agreements reached during the meeting include the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods by the U.S., and the continuation of a one-year suspension on the 24% reciprocal tariffs [1][5] - The U.S. will also pause the implementation of the 50% export control rule announced on September 29 for one year, while China will suspend its related export control measures [1][3] Trade Relations - The U.S. will suspend the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year, with China reciprocating by pausing its countermeasures [3] - Both countries reached a consensus on cooperation regarding fentanyl, expanding agricultural trade, and handling specific corporate cases, indicating a willingness to stabilize trade relations [3][5] - The reduction of the "fentanyl tariff" from 20% to 10% and the suspension of the 24% tariffs demonstrate the U.S. recognition that a trade war with China would not yield substantial victories [5] Economic Impact - The trade discussions suggest that the U.S. acknowledges the significant demand for its agricultural products in the Chinese market, as evidenced by China's renewed purchases of U.S. soybeans [5] - The agreements reached during the meeting indicate a potential restoration of normal agricultural trade between the two nations, which is crucial for both economies [5] Strategic Implications - The meeting signifies that the development goals of China and the U.S. are not inherently incompatible, with both nations able to promote mutual prosperity [7][8] - The future of U.S.-China relations is expected to have a global impact, influencing the direction of the global landscape [8] - The meeting is viewed as a historic step in the development of U.S.-China relations, showcasing responsible leadership and strategic wisdom from both countries [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the recent US-China trade talks in Kuala Lumpur reached a preliminary consensus, although the US claims that China has not implemented rare earth controls, which contradicts the actual situation [1][3] - The US Treasury Secretary suggested that tariff threats have been effective, and soybean purchases from China may resume, indicating a potential recovery in agricultural trade [1][5] - The talks concluded earlier than expected, not due to a breakdown, but because both sides had discussed all necessary topics, marking a rare positive development in US-China relations [1][3] Group 2 - The US's primary concern during the negotiations was the rare earth issue, especially following an $8.5 billion rare earth cooperation agreement signed with Australia [3] - Despite the US's efforts to create a supply chain independent of China, the technical barriers in rare earth processing remain a significant challenge for the US and its allies [3][6] - The US hopes to pressure China into concessions regarding rare earth controls, but China's response indicates that its new regulations are still in effect and aimed at maintaining global supply chain stability [6][8] Group 3 - Another critical issue for the US is soybean purchases, which have not occurred this year, significantly impacting US agricultural states [5] - The upcoming APEC summit in South Korea may serve as a crucial interaction point for US-China relations, with potential meetings between leaders that could solidify the outcomes of the Kuala Lumpur talks [5][8] - The US must adopt a sincere attitude and make concessions on core issues, such as Taiwan, to achieve commitments from China on trade matters [8]

Group 1 - The core message of the article highlights the simultaneous occurrence of a soybean purchase by China from the U.S. and the U.S. imposing new restrictions on Chinese technology products, indicating a dual strategy of cooperation and pressure in U.S.-China relations [1][3][28] - In the last week of October, China quietly ordered four ships of soybeans, totaling over 250,000 tons, marking a significant development in U.S.-China agricultural trade after a period of stagnation [3][5][24] - The U.S. agricultural sector is experiencing anxiety due to high soybean inventories and sluggish exports, leading to pressure on the government to increase agricultural exports to China [7][30] Group 2 - The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) implemented new regulations that restrict the approval of devices containing "high-risk Chinese components," which has led to the removal of over a million products from major U.S. e-commerce platforms [9][11][26] - The timing of the soybean purchase and the new restrictions on Chinese technology products occurred within days of each other, reflecting a calculated approach by the U.S. to manage its trade and technology policies simultaneously [13][22][32] - The article emphasizes the structural contradictions in U.S.-China economic relations, where agricultural products are used as leverage for negotiations, while technology and supply chain security remain high-pressure areas for U.S. policy [13][30][32]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the recent China-US summit, highlighting China's dominant position and the need for stable bilateral relations [1][2][8] - The article discusses the internal pressures within the US that may lead to a softening of Trump's stance towards China, primarily due to fiscal constraints and the need for monetary policy adjustments [3][4][5] - It notes that the US's internal contradictions may result in fluctuating policies towards China, despite the current signs of a more conciliatory approach [5][8] Group 2 - The article asserts that the upward trend in the A-share market remains intact, supported by China's strengthening economic fundamentals and proactive financial reforms [6][8] - It warns of potential short-term market volatility and style shifts, as the market has already seen significant valuation increases compared to the previous year [6][8] - The potential for RMB appreciation is highlighted, particularly in the context of anticipated changes in US monetary policy, which could lead to a weaker dollar [7][8]

Core Points - The recent trade negotiations between the US and China have resulted in a one-year suspension of tariffs, with the US pausing a 24% tariff on China and China reciprocating by suspending its 10% tariff on fentanyl [1] - The suspension of tariffs is expected to save over $8 billion annually for US-China import-export businesses, providing a significant financial relief that can be reinvested into R&D, production, and market expansion [1] - The negotiations indicate a shift towards a more cooperative approach, with both countries opting for dialogue rather than confrontation, showcasing China's ability to negotiate on equal terms [1] Trade and Economic Impact - The US has also paused export sanctions on Chinese companies with over 50% foreign ownership, while China has suspended its export controls on rare earths, lithium batteries, and superhard materials for a year [1] - The US's agricultural sector has been severely impacted by the trade war, with soybean prices dropping 40% due to a lack of Chinese purchases, leading to increased bankruptcies among American farmers [3] - Rising prices in the US for various consumer goods, including electronics and clothing, have been attributed to the tariffs, affecting overall consumer spending [3][4] Military and Strategic Considerations - The US military's reliance on Chinese rare earth materials for key equipment highlights the strategic vulnerabilities created by the trade tensions, with 87% of major military equipment potentially affected by supply chain disruptions [4] - The negotiations have created a buffer period for both countries to stabilize their economic relations while addressing core differences, allowing for continued discussions on critical issues [4][6] Future Outlook - The upcoming year is seen as a crucial observation window for US-China relations, with expectations for ongoing negotiations to address fundamental disagreements while maintaining a stable relationship [6] - The current negotiations are viewed as a temporary resolution, with the potential for future conflicts if circumstances change, emphasizing the need for vigilance and continued reform on both sides [5]

Group 1 - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump on October 30 marks a significant historical moment, being their first meeting in six years and the first during Trump's new term [2] - The discussions focused on U.S.-China economic and trade relations, with both sides agreeing to enhance cooperation in these areas [2] - Following the meeting, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced the outcomes of negotiations in Kuala Lumpur, including the U.S. decision to cancel the 10% "Fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and to suspend the 24% "reciprocal tariff" for one year [2][4] Group 2 - The trade negotiations between the U.S. and China have been ongoing since May 2025, with five rounds of talks held, leading to significant tariff reductions and suspensions [3][4] - The recent agreements signify a new phase in U.S.-China economic relations, moving from a period of tension to a more strategic interaction [4] - Analysts suggest that the one-year suspension of tariffs aligns with the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, indicating a desire for a stable economic environment prior to the elections [4] Group 3 - The trade negotiations have highlighted vulnerabilities in the U.S. strategy, particularly in agriculture and rare earths, which are critical to the U.S. market's reliance on China [5] - China's import and export figures remain robust, with a total trade volume of 33.6 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [5][6] - Despite external challenges, China's economy has shown resilience, achieving a 5.2% growth rate in the same period, supported by strong export performance to non-U.S. markets [6]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is marked as a significant milestone for the development of trade promotion in China, with a total of 2,982 overseas exhibition projects organized and over 120,000 participating enterprises, contributing positively to foreign trade and international expansion of Chinese companies [1] - In the first nine months of this year, the trade promotion system issued 6.1532 million various certificates, a year-on-year increase of 17.64%, indicating robust growth in trade facilitation [1] - The RCEP certificates issued during the same period amounted to $7.08 billion, reflecting a 24.01% increase in value and a 25.57% increase in the number of certificates issued [1] Group 1 - The trade promotion system's issuance of certificates, including origin certificates and ATA carnets, has significantly increased, demonstrating the resilience and adaptability of Chinese foreign trade enterprises in a complex external environment [1] - The expansion of the "foreign trade circle" and the accumulation of new advantages and momentum are expected to provide strong support for the stable development of China's foreign trade in the next phase [1] - The Chinese and American business communities are seen as the main force in bilateral economic and trade cooperation, forming a mutually beneficial community of interests [1] Group 2 - In the first ten months, over 3,500 Chinese enterprises were guided to participate in more than 50 professional exhibitions in the U.S., covering various sectors such as electronics, textiles, and pharmaceuticals, with an exhibition area exceeding 48,000 square meters [2] - The trade promotion system issued 66,000 origin certificates for exports to the U.S. in the first nine months, indicating strong trade ties [2] - The trade promotion agency aims to leverage the outcomes of the upcoming summit between the two countries' leaders to enhance economic and trade exchanges and cooperation [2]