原木点评：成本支撑减弱叠加需求疲软，原木跌超 5% 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1292 号 曹剑兰（投资咨询资格编号：Z0019556） 2025 年 10 月 27 日星期一 电话：020-88818046 邮箱：caojianlan@gf.com.cn 行情导读： 2025 年 10 月 27 日，原木期货主力合约 LG2601 加速下行，盘中一度触及跌停，最低下探至 780 元/ 立方米，多头资金减仓离场。截止下午收盘，主力 LG2601 收于 787 元/立方米，单日下跌 5.12%。相 较于 10 月 22 日 840 元/立方米的高点，累计跌幅已达 6.31%。原木期货大跌主要由于以下几个方面 原因： 支撑减弱，未来家具材的采购需求将随之走弱，进一步削弱对原木的支撑作用。上周原木现货价格稳 中偏弱，山东无节材出现跌价。供应端方面，四季度原木进口呈季节性增长趋势，后续到港量或呈现 上升趋势。据木联数据，短期新西兰的到船量将有所增加，上周新西兰发运直发中国增加 1 船 5 万方， 近四周新西兰发运环比持平，供应端压力正在逐步累积。在需求疲软、旺季预期转弱的背景下，原木 库存压力凸显。据木联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese A-shares experienced a significant increase on October 27, with major indices showing positive performance, driven by favorable news regarding Sino-U.S. economic relations [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.18%, closing at 3996 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.51% to 13489 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.98%, reaching 3234 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 23,401 billion RMB, an increase of about 3,659 billion RMB compared to the previous trading day [1] Economic Factors - Recent positive signals in Sino-U.S. economic relations have contributed to an increase in investor risk appetite, supporting the upward movement of the stock market [1] - During economic discussions held in Kuala Lumpur from October 25 to 26, both sides reached a preliminary consensus on several important trade issues, with plans to follow domestic approval procedures [1] Sector Performance - Most industry sectors in the A-share market saw gains, with electronic chemicals, minor metals, and shipbuilding sectors leading the way [1] - The electronic chemicals sector recorded the highest increase at 3.08%, outperforming all other industry sectors, with individual stocks such as Jingrui Electric Materials, Wanrun Shares, Jianghua Micro, and Sanfu New Science seeing price increases of over 6% [1]

【博时市场点评10月27日】沪指逼近4000点，创业板涨近2% 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数上涨，涨幅均超1%，沪指逼近4000点。今日两市成交放量至2.35万亿，上周五两融 余额放量61亿元。推迟发布的美国CPI数据出炉，9月CPI同比增3%，高于前值，但略低于预期，其中能 源价格反弹对其形成带动，核心CPI增速较上月放缓，整体来看，9月美国通胀数据仍在回升，但幅度 有一定温和化趋向。同时，美国就业市场下行风险仍在，消费者信心指数仍然处于较低位。受此影响， 本周FOMC会议继续降息25bp的概率较大，今年共降息75bp仍是当前市场多数预期。中美吉隆坡经贸磋 商举行，就解决各自关切的安排达成基本共识。从我方表述来看，双方沟通的问题包括造船和海事物流 关税、延长对等关税暂停期等等，"就稳妥解决多项重要经贸议题形成初步共识"，"美方表达立场是强 硬的，中方维护利益是坚定的"，本周关注双方领导人会否在韩国见面。 消息面 当地时间10月25日至26日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝 森特和贸易代表格里尔在马来西亚吉隆坡举行中美经贸磋商。双方以今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共 识为引领， ...

10月27日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 有外媒记者就中美经贸磋商提问，美国财政部长贝森特表示，中美除了就购买大豆达成了一致之外，中 方还会推迟实施关于稀土的出口管制措施。美方还称，中美将就TikTok达成最终的交易协议，中方对 此有何评论？ "关于TikTok的问题，中方的立场是一贯的。"郭嘉昆说。 来源｜北京日报 郭嘉昆回应，刚才我已就中美经贸磋商相关问题做了回答。关于你提到的具体问题，建议向中方的主管 部门进行询问。 编辑｜瑜见 ...

来源｜北京日报 编辑｜瑜见 郭嘉昆表示，关于中美经贸磋商，中方已经发布了消息。此次经贸磋商中双方以两国元首重要共识为引 领，围绕共同关心的重要经贸问题，进行了坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流磋商，就解决各自关切的安 排达成基本共识。双方同意进一步确定具体细节，并履行各自国内批准程序。 "具体的问题，建议向中方的主管部门进行询问。"郭嘉昆说。 10月27日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 彭博社记者提问，据报道，中国和美国达成了一项框架性贸易协议，发言人能否提供更多细节，特别是 关于美国财政部长贝森特所提到的购买大豆的部分？ ...

Core Points - The recent US-China economic talks in Kuala Lumpur aimed to strengthen communication and cooperation for a more stable and healthy economic relationship between the two countries [1][6] - Key issues discussed included maritime logistics, shipbuilding industry measures, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl tariffs, enforcement cooperation, agricultural trade, and export controls [1][3] Group 1 - The fifth round of US-China economic consultations lasted nearly ten hours, resulting in a preliminary consensus on several important economic issues [1][3] - The US announced final measures on its 301 investigation into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, with port fees implemented on October 14 [2][6] - The US plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese products starting November 1, alongside export controls on "all critical software" [2][6] Group 2 - Both sides emphasized the importance of mutual respect and cooperation to resolve differences and enhance collaboration for mutual benefit [3][6] - The discussions were characterized by constructive dialogue, with both parties exploring solutions to address each other's concerns [3][6] - The US expressed a willingness to work with China to resolve disputes and strengthen cooperation, highlighting the significance of the US-China economic relationship on a global scale [6][8] Group 3 - Previous rounds of talks occurred in Geneva, London, Stockholm, and Madrid, with significant agreements made, including the cancellation of 91% of tariffs by the US and corresponding actions by China [7] - The talks have led to an extension of the tariff truce until November 10, with expectations for continued cooperation in agricultural trade, particularly in soybeans [8] - The discussions also included plans for future meetings, with the next APEC leaders' informal meeting scheduled for October 31 to November 1 in South Korea [6][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of mutual benefit and win-win cooperation in the China-U.S. economic and trade relationship, highlighting the need for both sides to maintain stability and address concerns through dialogue [1][2][3] - Both sides reached a preliminary consensus on several key economic and trade issues, including maritime logistics, shipbuilding industry measures, extension of tariff suspension, fentanyl tariffs, and agricultural trade [2][3] - The discussions were characterized by a constructive and respectful dialogue, with both parties committed to enhancing communication and cooperation for the sustainable development of the economic relationship [2][3] Group 2 - The U.S. side expressed a willingness to resolve differences and strengthen cooperation through equal and respectful dialogue, aiming for common development [2] - The Chinese side reiterated its commitment to adhering to the consensus reached in previous high-level communications and emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable economic relationship [2][3] - The discussions took place in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, with appreciation expressed for the host government's arrangements [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (10.20-10.24) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油受地缘因素影响自低位大幅上行，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.44美元，周涨7.32%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货 价格收于每桶64.72美元，周涨6.05%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至467.6元/桶，周涨8.09%。周初市场仍受美俄和谈影响低位运行，供应端未 受显著影响压制油价，而周中特朗普意外表示暂不考虑与俄罗斯总统普京会面，同时美国财政部加大对俄罗斯石油公司制裁，前所未有直接提 振市场地缘担忧情绪，令有消息称印度与美国进行关税谈判或减少俄油进口，更进一步拉升油价，原油回升至前期 ...

Report Summary Core Views - The basic consensus reached in the high - level China - US economic and trade talks will ease market concerns, help the short - term rise of stock index futures and commodity futures, and suppress the short - term rise of treasury bond futures [2] - The central bank's continued over - quantity renewal of MLF to inject liquidity into the market will help the short - term price increase of stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodity futures [7] - If the EIA crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 24 continues to decline, it will contribute to the price increase of crude oil and related commodity futures [10] - If the Q3 2025 seasonally - adjusted GDP annual rate initial value of the eurozone is slightly lower than the previous value, it will slightly suppress the price increase of commodity futures (except gold and silver) and slightly help the price increase of gold and silver futures [16] - If the official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI in China in October are slightly lower than the previous values, it will slightly suppress the rise of commodity futures (mainly industrial product futures) and stock index futures, but help the rise of treasury bond futures [21] - If the annual rates of the US September PCE price index and core PCE price index are slightly lower than the previous values, but the monthly rate of the PCE price index is slightly higher than the previous value, it will strengthen the market's expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in November [23] Key Events and Their Expected Impacts October 27 - China will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to September and for September. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to August increased by 0.9% year - on - year, with an 20.4% year - on - year increase in August. The announcement results will affect related industrial product futures prices, stock index futures, and treasury bond futures [4] - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation. With 700 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, the net MLF investment in October is 200 billion yuan, with eight consecutive months of increased renewal [7] October 28 - The US will announce the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October, with an expected value of 94.2, the same as the previous value [8] October 29 - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision and monetary policy report. It is expected that the overnight lending rate of the Bank of Canada on October 30 will be cut by 25 basis points to 2.25% [9] - The US will announce the change in EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending October 24. The previous value decreased by 961,000 barrels [10] October 30 - The Fed FOMC will announce its interest rate decision. The market expects a 25 - basis - point cut in the federal funds rate. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference [11] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook report. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference [12] - The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference [14] - Germany will announce the initial value of Q3 2025 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted GDP quarterly rate initial value is 0%, compared with - 0.3% in Q2 [15] - The eurozone will announce the initial value of Q3 GDP. The expected seasonally - adjusted GDP quarterly rate initial value is 0.1%, the same as Q2; the expected seasonally - adjusted GDP annual rate initial value is 1.2%, compared with 1.5% in Q2 [16] - The eurozone will announce the economic sentiment index and industrial sentiment index for October. The expected economic sentiment index is 95.7, and the expected industrial sentiment index is - 10.1 [17] - The US will announce the initial value of Q3 GDP. The expected real GDP annualized quarterly rate initial value is 3%, compared with 3.8% in the previous period [19] - Germany will announce the initial value of the CPI for October. The expected CPI annual rate initial value is 2.2%, compared with 2.4% in the previous period [20] October 31 - China will announce the official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI for October. The expected manufacturing PMI is 49.6, and the expected non - manufacturing PMI is 49.8 [21] - The eurozone will announce the initial value of the CPI for October. The expected harmonized CPI annual rate (unadjusted) initial value is 2.1%, and the expected core harmonized CPI annual rate (unadjusted) initial value is 2.3% [22] - The US will announce the September PCE price index. The expected PCE price index annual rate is 2.7%, the expected core PCE price index annual rate is 2.9%, and the expected PCE core price index monthly rate is 0.3% [23] Other Information - As of October 24, the US government has been shut down for 24 days. A Republican congresswoman said the shutdown may last until the end of November. If it continues, the release of US economic data (especially the September PCE price index) is likely to be delayed [2] - From October 25 to 26, China - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur. The two sides reached a basic consensus on resolving respective concerns [2] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27 to 30, with the theme of "Global Financial Development under Innovation, Change, and Reshaping" [5] - From October 30 to November 1, President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea and conduct a state visit to South Korea [3][14]

当地时间10月25日至26日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝 森特和贸易代表格里尔在马来西亚吉隆坡举行中美经贸磋商。 双方以今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共识为引领，围绕美对华海事物流和造船业301措施、延长对等 关税暂停期、芬太尼关税和执法合作、农产品贸易、出口管制等双方共同关心的重要经贸问题，进行了 坦诚、深入、富有建设性的交流磋商，就解决各自关切的安排达成基本共识。双方同意进一步确定具体 细节，并履行各自国内批准程序。 何立峰表示，中美经贸关系的本质是互利共赢，双方合则两利、斗则俱伤，维护中美经贸关系稳定发 展，符合两国和两国人民的根本利益，也符合国际社会的期待。对于在经贸合作中出现的分歧和摩擦， 双方应本着相互尊重、和平共处、合作共赢的原则，通过平等对话协商，找到妥善解决彼此关切的办 法。中美经贸磋商成果来之不易，需要双方共同维护。希望美方与中方相向而行，共同落实好两国元首 历次通话重要共识和今年以来历次经贸磋商成果，进一步积累互信、管控分歧，拓展互利合作，推动双 边经贸关系不断迈向更高水平。 美方表示，美中经贸关系是全球最具影响力的双边关系，美方愿同中方通过平等、尊 ...